Topic: So, are we going up or down? (Read 3752 times)

More or less I meant that. Buy when it dips and sell when you need to, ie. Need to buy stuff.

Interesting. I have not bought any BTC though exchanges yet (partly for those reasons) so I may have to check them out. I wish Currency Fair would take on BTC as I have had a fairly good experience with them so far.

Time to spread out and reduce the impact of any single exchange. For example, I moved everything to bitcoin-24.com this week because they don't require any documents or "verified status" to send me my € when I want them.

No, he said buy low and sell when you need fiat.

The OP said don't bother with speculating, just buy low and sell high. In other words, don't bother speculating, just speculate.

Why smile?

Made me smile.

Yes, I think that prices will stabilize for some time.  People don't want to see another bubble.  Although it goes along with the Bitcoin news.  The last one was triggered by a series of good news (mainly Mt.Gox goes North-America, but also Namecheap, Amazon, WinPoker, etc. all in a few hours apart).

When difficulty start to rise though (ASIC), I suspect there will be a dramatic raise in the BTC price, probably followed by another crash/correction.  The difficulty won't have to raise so much though, that bubble will mainly be driven by the speculation and hype about imminent difficulty raise.

Also, throw in some major bad news and people will lose confidence in BTC and price will go down.  BitInstant is just a glitch, and it was surrounded by good news. But what if it occurred while there were no other news, while the mediatic attention would have turned solely at it?

So, it resumes to this...  If you want to know if BTC will raise or fall, you must not attempt to predict it directly, but you must instead be able to predict news surrounding Bitcoin.  That is the driving factor in the end.

Look at it, the last raise from 35$ started to happen suddenly and sharply.  Here on the forum, everyone was asking 'Why does the price raise suddenly?".  I didn't saw much anyone writing that it could be due to the Mt.Gox news until a day or 2 later.  People just looked at the prices rising and massively bought.  There's always a reason behind every moves.  And if people can't find it, and see that the price raise too quickly, then it leads to inevitable correction.

However, Bitcoin is much more mature than in 2011, and have a lot more attention and investors, so I don't think we'll see a crash like back then, unless something really bad happen to the Bitcoin network itself (which could be a possibility also...  51% attack, yet to be discovered vulnerability/security breach in the Bitcoin protocol itself, etc.).

So, always keep in mind that Bitcoin is play money.  A curiosity.  It may get you rich.  But it can make you bankrupt.  It's a game!  If a breach of Bitcoin is found, there's no turning back.  There's no one who will stop accounts in hope for better days.  It will be game over.  So invest wisely, always knowing that it's a gamble.  Don't ever invest money/mining hardware/etc that you're not ready to lose.

I sold a big chunk my speculative coin at 33 before the run up. Just leaving my "Never sell" coins.

Yeah I was disappointed to miss out on more, but I was delighted that this paid off all my initial bitcoin investment (and some!). Really the latter is far more important than 'theoretical' possible gains.

I see the recent crash as ending up being more of a correction, perhaps I have been fooled but fortune favours the brave, and everything is play money now! So, leveraged back up my remaining speculative coins back to what I had before I sold (bitfinex - did I learn from bitcoinica losses... appatantly not hehe). Enough margin to cover a serious move, but I really don't expect one.

These ghosts from the past have a habit of cropping up, people need something to fixate on, especially with something so fundamentally un-valueable (should that be invaluable? ) as bitcoin.

I absolutely don't like the idea of testing $32 again, to the extent that I may prefer the price to stay here for a month than to break out immediately over $50 and fall to $32. We really should bury this ghost from the past, if we can't get rid of it, people will not stop using it to judge if bitcoin is "overvalued", "in a bubble", while it's just in itself a meaningless price point.

I agree with you. Noteworthy is that I see almost nothing between $15-$25 and absolutely nothing in the final blowoff above $35.

Between these is where the crash will stop, and in case you sold, I would be quick to buy as I don't expect it to last for long. (If it does, it is not a big deal to buy a little too early.)

I think 31.5 is more important, and very strong resistance.



32 was the bubble high, initial crash back to 23ish, when the double top came in it could not breach 31.5 (first chart)

This time round (second chart) we saw first approach to 31.5 on 22nd, price backed off and regrouped to make two solid tests of it on 26th and 27th, then break out on 28th. It was always going to be a hug break out with so much riding on it and so much inevitablity (if you are a permabull like me that is! hehe)

The spike back down was almost a token gesture of checking if it was resistance, with so much buying pressure pushing it straight back up. (As an aside I think we see that with the recent 'crash' which I actually see as more of a solid test of resistance levels. the fact it went no lower than 32 and came back *so* strongly is huge bullish signal for me.)

Of course I'm not a big beleiver in TA, other than it tends to work because people believe it does I'm more about the permabull fundamentals. The invitability of worldwide adoption, the enforced scarcity. I'm already on negative costs basis so I have a good chunk of coin that will never leave my wallet until it *is* money

But I'm short from 45

Depends on whether you use single trades, daily close or vwa...

I would put it this way: A decisive volume above $50 pretty much eliminates the major crash scenario. Then we would either resume bulltrend or enter a consolidation around $50.

I would be very wary for anything below that. Yes, trades over $45 reduce the probability of crash scenario but I would not buy now. That we failed to take over the level 18 hours ago is definitely bearish.

2 hours ago it looked doomed, ready to crash through $40. But is now recovered to $43. Not too late to go short


IF rise to $45 and strong but not too hasty action there, we could avert the crash.

IF downward action in $41-$44, big probability for another flashcrash come weekend.

IF sudden rise to $50, bull trap (->crash)

IF immediate crash, well

No matter what, if the strong hands decide to sell, they do (->crash). There is absolutely not enough BTC in weak hands to warrant a classic bubble burst yet.

Yeah - maybe I formulated it the wrong way.  At what price would a 'dead cat bounce' be improbable? I've heard the usual retrace for a dead cat is 80% isn't it?  So it was around 45 - broken, but not definitively.

50 would be a good start

What price it needs to break to eliminate the 'dead cat bounce' possibility?

Yeah, the big players want it down, it's silly me, the small time player, who 2 days ago spent $10M to buy overpriced bitcoins, now I just want to kick myself....

Hooray to Proudhon for being the guy ropes on the tent that is Bitcoin.

 

Oh proudhon ...

We rallied from $13 to $49, a +277% move in 2 months. It went parabolic in the end. So regardless if we believe in the long term or not, there is a significant (in may estimation: 70%) chance that we enter correction mode and do not make a new ATH in at least a month, probably 1-6 months.

The price has several target/support levels though, in descending order:

$35 first fibonacci retracement (13+.61*(49-13)) weak
$32 ATH of 2011 medium (not strong because it was not tested but just blasted through)
$31 half retracement (13+.5*(49-13)) weak
$30 round number weak-medium
$27 second fib. retracement (13+.61^2*(49-13)) medium-strong <- target/support
$26 50-dma (vol.weighted moving average) medium <- target
$25 round number weak-medium
$22 third fib. retracement (13+.61^3*(49-13)) medium-strong
$20 round number weak-medium
$15 high of 2012 medium-strong
$13 base strong

I see rather clear target in $26-$27 area. Support starts at $35 and intensifies in $32 and the target area. There is rather little support actually in the vast area between Pirate high $15 and $25. Maybe that is why many speculator aim to buy from there.

A safe bet would to start buyback already from $32. Other approaches are too risky if you plan on having BTC to sell also next year

His answer was definitive. You just didn't phrase the question correctly. Should've used an XOR, not an OR.

single digits!  
no way
10$ is just to round a number.  

if the drop continues i will be buying in a little in a few weeks, and then buy more and more as prices fall.

Maybe.  The order book is beginning to flip around.  The number of BTCs up for sale is up over 100k and it's probably going to continue to grow as the price moves further down.  The big players have set a new direction now, and it isn't up.  It might seem gradual now, but it will accelerate.  Single digits is very realistic.

I think we'll probably be going down for a little while yet, but only quite gradually.

I agree! It was rather terrifying to watch honestly. I was seeing the buy wall disappear and the price was dropping dollars per mash of my f5 key. Fucking GOX! I think alot of people were waiting to see where it would slow down before buying back in, and the lag on top of that was causing the support to be nearly non-existent. Thank goodness for scalpers! 

Shaving their beards under rickety bridges all over the world.

I lol'd. 

Right for sure. The rest is less certain.

Good question:
* We will be retesting the high of 49.03.
* Panicking sellers will be retesting the low of 33.30.


Yes, both.   

If that's going to happen, the price is going to have to start gapping wildly upwards pretty soon here.

That's exactly what I've been thinking.

Nor I. I wasn't proposing abandoning mtgox either, just that there appears to be an opportunity for someone to take advantage of.

I did move out whatever I had for trade at gox to several other exchanges. Let's see which one gets hacked first

I don't trade on Mt.Gox directly, so if everyone wants to move that's fine by me!

Time for another exchange, maybe? Nothing wrong with a bit of competition and it means less chance of a single point of failure.

You may well be right. I know if I started losing control of my funds, I would be looking to get them out ASAP.

I haven't experienced this myself but it seems many people were complaining yesterday, so this may have some element of truth in it.

If Mt. Gox can keep it's shit together, up.  It seems people stop buying when the lag hits, but people get scared about not knowing what's happening and sell to be on the safe side.  I blame Gox for bringing us below $45 again.

Bitcoin always goes only up. It is just a matter of time-frame and patience i.e. it only depends on how long you are willing to wait.

This is close to what I would regard sensible (absent capital gains tax, that is...)

My gut told that there should be some resistance around $32 because it was the all-time-high for 2 years. That resistance was taken decisively and the price moved up. But it is improbable to go straight up, so a breather is necessary every once in a while.

Now as the uptrend is shaken anyway, is a good chance to go revisit the area between $25-$35 and find support and stability there. As the price is still way above $40, I believe selling now and starting to buy back at $35 and less is a good idea.

My only concern is the opposite scenario. There will need to be a stop loss in place should we go above $52 or so.. to buy back the coins sold if the call was false.

You may think being a troll is all fun like sitting on the beach drinking beer but it is actually hard work so they are taking the rest of the week off so they can be rested up and ready for the next move up.

Jeez, man... OK...

Definitely yes!

Set sell orders at 49 and buy at 34 and just wait for all of them to fill eventually.

Where are all the trolls to predict crashes and millionaires overnight when you need them?

The best thing for bitcoin's long term growth would be several days. That run from 30 to 49 was dangerously fast even on a log plot.

I haven't got a clue. I'd rather just hold onto my bitcoins until I need to sell them. I'm hesitant to sell since intersango has lost a lot of liquidity and trust from people after the bitcoinica incident, and I don't like the idea of selling for GBP on any other exchange. I'm worried about ridiculous fees and security issues. I guess I can always store GBP on MtGox without a bank transfer and buy bitcoins back in the future. Yet I'm unsure as to if selling is a good idea regardless. Bitcoin is very volatile, so best to buy when on dips and then sell when you need to, rather than speculate, I think.

Omnidirectional price movement

What a committed answer!!!

Yes.

First one direction, then the other. 

Stuck between 40-45 for the past 10 hours

I want to heard the voodoo from people... what's the next move? UP or DOWN?