Topic: SO MANY BLACK SWANS FOR ONE YEAR (Read 367 times)

Luna UST and CeFi lending platforms collapse was yet another black swan which directly caused the anvil drop on crypto prices. It was not the Ukraine war which triggered this selloff because it did only a minimal correction to the price back then.

That's because we think it's only a simple flu but the world began to worry when the virus spread like a wildfire in China. The reason why it spread in other countries is because there are travellers who seem to be hard headed and won't follow the safety protocols given by the government.

It ruined lots of business but at the same time it gave people a new hope because they find a new career that are much better than what they had before and those are mostly online and related to cryptocurrencies and the blockchain. Fortunately, the effect of the covid is now hardly felt and people are starting to live normal again. I wonder why the op didn't include this in the first page?

If the black swan you're mean to is something that's hard to guess, then obviously we don't know for sure what it is. I remember several major events over the past year that could be considered a black swan and that was Elon Musk announcing that he was no longer adopting bitcoin for Tesla, and most recently the Luna fiasco. There are other FUD, but not as bad as the two above.

To be honest, I don't expect there to be many black swans in the years to come. FUD will always show up, but I don't believe it will make bitcoin drop below $10K. Yes, I was expecting some price drops because I thought it was a good idea to buy bitcoin at a lower price. However, there is no denying that this market will probably recover before the end of the year.

COVID should no longer produce significant loses.

On the other hand, the loses caused by the energy war (derived from the Russia vs Ukraine war) may be still in a rather early phase and we will see after many more months how long is this going to go (I expect years to adjust infrastructure and prices) and how many companies will have to close doors at least for the winter.

I expect the war's full impact, especially as coming after COVID, will be exponentially bigger.

It can be said that the war between Russia and Ukraine has not caused as much impact as what covid has caused us (human and economic losses). But when covid is not completely over, war happens, this is nothing more than a punch to a world that has suffered from irreversible wounds caused by covid. It can be said that the war between Russia and Ukraine is a serious issue that needs to be resolved now. In my country, a country that mainly exports, in addition to inflation, unemployment is rampant because goods cannot be exported because world consumer demand is slowing down. Many families fall into a deadlock situation when there is no income, everything was really bad.

It seems to me that covid has reminded people of how fragile we're again both in terms of global and isolated. That it would also mean some county are more resistant to the downturn of the economy. Enough for them to start pushing their agenda ahead of the needs of their people, ahead of the needs of thriving, doing business. This causes war and such for the gains of a few. Yes, I meant the Russia-Ukraine war might just happen because covid show Russia could possibly stand on their own against the US and nearly the whole world's sanction. With this trend, we might see more black swans and I think I understand why some worry China might pull the same thing with Taiwan, similar to the Russia-Ukraine war.

The spread of Covid 19 was also so fast that it paralyzed many businesses,
conditions at that time were really difficult especially those who lost their jobs,
like it or not the country must do that to prevent the spread

Indeed Covid-19 can be classified as a black swan because it wasn't predicted unlike other scenarios. The world hasn't really recovered from the impact of the virus, both economic, political and social.  Never in my years of existence have I witnessed such a situation, am not sure what happened in WWI and WW11 since I wasn't born yet, but with covid-19 emergence, the world witnessed a difficult time in human history, the whole world was literally shot down, it was a frightening period. 
This Russian-Ukraine war now added to the already very fragile global economy. Honestly, these are terrible times we live in, hopefully, there will be some form of relief at some point.

You're wrong here. The war in Ukraine or the energy prices did not cause inflation, covid did, or rather the way covid was handled in many countries.
What they should've done is simply distribute vaccines, introduce the procedures like gaps in lines, disinfectants, cashless payments, but they made a mistake and locked people in their homes, restricted travels, shut down hotels and restaurants. This stupidity pushed business owners to the edge of bankruptcy, so the idea of the governments was to shower them with money, but how to get money if people aren't spending because they're locked in their homes? Print it!

So, the main reasons for inflation are money printing and increased spending when people got out of lockdowns. High inflation is not a black swan event.

You mean fiat is dying as a result of the current economic crisis, and the fiat system will in turn be replaced by decentralized crypto dominance in the future. Today, most of the currencies of the countries are seriously depreciating but looking at the USD, it is still standing there and even the highest in the past 20 years. I don't think USD will die even though I thought BTC or another cryptocurrency would replace them, but it never will. As long as American domination is gone, we have every right to think about it. If there is any cryptocurrency to replace fiat it is also CBDC, which is also a government controlled currency, no different from fiat.

  Wait till we get actual killer virus instead of a really bad cold.  The response to that last virus from massive incompetence will pale in comparison.  You should look up some of the more serious virus that humanity has had to deal with. 

This one was where it only really hurt people with underlying conditions.   Wait till we get one that just kills people period like the Spanish flu. (which btw ended without a vaccine)

If we had gotten that covid in the 1950's the response would have been.    Its a bad cold/flu season. 

BTW  a 14 day incubation with no symptoms is Entirely predictable to spread around the entire world.  There's Zero way to stop that without a total lock down, which no one did Or could afford.  The response was to slow it down which is why the pandemic was 2 years long instead of 5 months. 

If Ebola which up until very recently was Very deadly was as easy to catch and had a 14 incubation period with no signs we would lose 70 % of the population.  The only 2 saving factors with Ebola is its fast so people die before they can spread it much and it doesn't transmit anywhere as easily.


Oh and if you think that the vaccines shut down the covid you'd be wrong.   Due to the rapid mutation rate of said virus the vaccines were fighting a rear action the entire time.  By the time you had the newest vaccine the virus had already mutated to another variety of covid so it was less effective rapidly over time thus the never ending boosters.  Did the vaccine help?  Yes it probable saved quite a few lives but on the large scale society functionality I think it hurt more then it helped mostly due to how it was shoved at everyone.   The Ends almost never justify the Means.   This could have been handled far far better.

What ended the pandemic is the same way most large scale pandemics end.  The virus mutated into a form that was highly transmissible and very benign (omicron) this basically out-competed the other variants of the virus.   

In effect humanity did nothing but stab itself with a fairly untested vaccine (btw theres no good way to long term test any vaccine other then to use it)

Oh and I, and many others predicted that entire outcome with some mild variations.   

No I'm Not god no I'm not patting myself on the back.  My point here is  Lots of things like this are very predictable you Just have to study more history and read more books on well.   Everything.

Most people think the news is education.   News is mostly telling you what they want you to do(right or wrong). 

That's not education that's simply a compliance channel

I think the same, this is probably the very first time in recent memory that we experiment so many negative and impossible to predict events happening all very close to each other, but it is very likely that something like this has already happened before, and this should make us think about where are we headed? Because at least to me it seems that we are getting closer to a complete economic failure, obviously such a thing is not going to happen overnight and it could take a lot of time to materialize, but it seems the final countdown for the fiat system has finally begun.

Russia may have been a world superpower on paper, but in practice it turned out that they were far from it - but if I remember correctly, Ukraine was in 20th place in terms of military power, which is far from being called a superpower. If by any chance it were so, then Russia would never attack a country that is stronger or equal to it.

Maybe you are too young, but in the last thirty years, many bloody wars have been fought in the world, and even in the heart of Europe from 1991 onwards, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria - and the difference is that no one cared too much for countries that are not nuclear powers anyway.

For some, the new war in the Balkans might be a "black swan", but the part of Bosnia and Herzegovina under the control of the Serbs has been announcing its annexation to the Republic of Serbia for a long time, and has the support of Russia for that - and for me it's just a question of when that powder keg will explode.

Not so young here and Most of this year was completely predictable.  Some of us have been predicting this for years.

My next few statements are pale descriptions of the depth of knowledge in each one.  No one wants to read giant walls of text so those are simplified.

Start paying attention to what conservatives have to say instead of what the media wants you to think conservatives have to say. 

Read some history, humans tend to think in short terms. Once you start seeing the larger patterns in the histories, the repetitions you start seeing tend to have similar causes.  Don't Ignore the major holy books.  No I'm Not religious But those books are direct views on the human psyche and descriptions on how and why things go wrong.

Humanity likes to think that it has little or no instincts and is in control of itself most of the time.  This is utter Bullcrap.  We have many instincts, most of which we are very unaware of, which is one of the many reasons people are so easily lead around by the nose.  People with more knowledge of how your operating system works can drag you around without much trouble.   

Being aware of how you yourself works Will Not make you a better person But it will make you less foolish.

BTC is Literally the prediction that the dollar has got problems. How long ago was that again?   Many conservatives said these problems would happen  BEFORE the gold standard was dropped in the 70's. 

You are right that 2022 is a very unpredictable year with a lot of extreme events. But so far the world is still holding it together and trying to move on. If you had asked me last year I would have said inflation was way too low for the long period of low interest rates. And now with double digit inflation rates, it's way too high. Hopefully next year things will go to normality again. I wouldn't call the high USD a black swan event, because there are two ways to look at it. First is the high dollar, but this also happens due to weakness in the other currencies. The Euro is screwed because of the energy crisis from the Russian embargoes, and many emerging markets are also screwed because of higher food prices and higher oil prices. It's the relativity to other countries that makes USA so strong right now.
The next big black swan event that could make everything worse and send the whole world in crisis would be if China invades Taiwan. The probabilities for it to happen are not so high, but with everything going on this year we might underestimate that risk.

scientists and virologists had been monitoring many corona-viruses for years because they were supposed to have a catastrophic effect (avian and swine flu were a sort of "prodome").
However, it is almost impossible to hypothesize a pathology with such devastating effects at every level.

And this is what worries me a little ... an events that could occur "something possible" but of which we cannot clearly grasp the "complexity and magnitude" of its effect.

This is why there’s a belief in investing that we should not put all the eggs in one basket because if they do and some egg got broke, all of them will be affected. Diversification is the key to compensate your other investments which is affected by the black swan, this is indeed unpredictable but we can prepare for this and that is what doing of many. There’s a lot of bad things happening right now, this might be the reason why bear market will last longer, so better to be more ready for a worst case scenario.

No.  I stopped reading after this.  Neither the Ukraine/Russia conflict or...jump in energy cost(?) are black swan events, and I don't think you understand the meaning of that term.  They're not unpredictable or unforeseen events, just ones with an extremely low probability of happening.  

If Putin launched a nuclear strike against the entire world right now, that would qualify.  Aliens coming down from space would as well.

My first thought would be the writers of the movie Contagion--but that's only because I can't go back in time to ask the victims of the 1918 influenza pandemic if they saw it coming or not.

First of all thanks for yours opinions. To the people who say a lot of things were developing in the background, yes  i fully agree for taht i put this in my original post.

PS: Yes i know a lot of this things were developing before, but nobody expect to happen this fast or nobody think can really happen no matter what its.


The COVID was the most big change in terms ofpeople and society behaviour for an ammount of time but doesnt change the Geopolitical world.




I clearly know that but, its the first time since the cold war we see one of the two power nations making the step forward.

We always heard about a war can come bla bla but that war never comes, but now yes, the war has begun.

To be honest only the Ukraine Russia war is the Black swan rest all the repercussions of that. Just as like Covid was a Black swan and fall in petroleum prices was a repercussion of that. Basic thing is that any Black swan has a lot of consequences and after effects and these are all of them. I think on bitcoin they have already shown their effects and won't show anything new at overall level. Infact it's the best time to invest in the market at this time because all the black swans have been accounted for in the price.

I've just been thinking today about such things. When my life started, it seemed like the most important historic events have already happened, both major bad and major good things. But then some things happened occasionally, and I was like 'okay, surely that's it, and it'll all be boring and normal now'. Then the pandemic hit, and I certainly DID NOT see that coming in my lifetime. All those tests, lockdowns, masks, almost all of my Master's education being online... I thought that surely this is the big thing we'd tell the next generation as something very major and bizarre. And then my country gets fully invaded my an aggressive neighbour, and since then it feels like many things are still possible, and we might be entering the dark times. I've always thought that human progress was a real thing (not the obvious technological progress, but, like, moral progress). Now it feels like that was a misinformed position and a temporary de-escalation, while who knows, maybe the Third World War is just around the corner, and maybe it will even be a nuclear one.

It's really hard to predict when and how something like that could happen although perhaps something similar has happened before. No one can say exactly about it, although it could not say exactly when it will happen. All we can do is anticipate this by preparing everything we need, such as preparing savings or something like that.
it's possible that terrible things happen in the future more than the pandemic you say.

A black swan is usually a "dramatic" event that is difficult to predict!

"an unpredictable or unforeseen event, typically one with extreme consequences."

for example, who could ever have hypothesized the arrival of a pandemic capable of "paralyzing the world" and create so many issues for a lot of time!?

As such we can only "get hypothesis" about what the next dramatic event might be... unfortunately there is no shortage of options due the last events and war in Ukraine !

I wouldn't exactly call the events from the OP a "black swan", because considering the situation from the beginning of the pandemic, it could be expected that everything that resulted from excessive measures to protect ourselves from a disease that had less than 1% mortality would mean that it all backfires on us in the end.

Also, the war in Ukraine started in 2014 and culminated in 2022, and the fact is that many believed that aggression on this scale would not happen, but some warned all the time about what the consequences of such a war would be, but no one was intelligent enough to understand the message in time. Therefore, more or less everything was predictable, as is what will happen in the future, and it depends on what some senile old man or madman who thinks he is defending Europe from Nazism will do.

---

I corrected you a little, because people who invest in anything must be aware that it can turn into ordinary garbage at any moment. That "merge" was known a long time ago, so anyone could either sell the token, or sell the devices they used to mine it - and all those who didn't do it still believe it's worth being in the game, which I personally call "proof of stupidity" (POS).

"The mining industry its living a really decay and you can see this"

Me: *takes a look at mining hashrate*

Uh.. doesn't look so decayed to me.


https://coin.dance/blocks/hashrate

Would you care to provide us the facts behind this claim? While there are indeed a lot of miners who are probably suffering from the blows of increasing energy cost, I have yet to read news about Bitcoin mining companies declaring bankruptcy.

There are probably a number of them who were forced to prematurely sell their Bitcoin just to continue with their operations, but this doesn't mean miners right now are operating at a loss. As a matter of fact, mining difficulty and the Bitcoin hash rate have been hitting ATHs very recently. And this means only one thing, that Bitcoin mining remains attractive and more players are actually coming in.

I think that you answered yourself indirectly or your question is illogical, your definition of black swan, it is an unpredictable event and therefore we cannot guess what it will be.


In general, the world has witnessed many rare and frightening events, and people knew how to deal with them, and therefore the only thing that will cause great harm is a global or nuclear war.

Dear experts, what happened to Covid? Did vaccination help, or did governments stop falsifying mortality statistics because everyone was tired of lying?
Before that, there were many crises in the World and they all ended, only many owners lost their assets, and other people became billionaires.

There are plenty of options, although if I'm thinking they are possible they're not really black swans.

* WW3
* official recession in USA and/or Eurozone
* financial problems in China and possible contagion to EU/US
* outbreak of yet another disease (cholera in UKR or RU? polio in UK?)
* civil war in Iran

Plus, in crypto world, I would not rule out:
* yet another DeFi hack or bankruptcy
* legal problems for Tether or Ripple

PS. ETH price falling as a result of going PoS is not a black swan. The only unexpected part was long ago, when they agreed they go PoS.

Not sure if we can really predict it — as in the first place, a black swan event is something that's very unpredictable/unexpected.

I don't really think the rising inflation is necessarily a "black swan" though. Bitcoiners saw it coming within a mile.

It might be deduced by looking at past history.

These types of events are not entirely random. They have come in cycles throughout history. At a time when the majority have forgotten the circumstances and events which led to the previous disaster(s).

The generation gap contributes heavily towards society not learning from the mistakes of our ancestors. Causing the same errors to be repeated over thousands of years of history.

Its hard to imagine how much life can change for the better. Or the worse. Within a short span of time. Many of us have never really seen a drastic adjustment to our own standard of living. Hopefully, we can adapt to our changing circumstances and thrive in spite of them.

That said there are many, many, historical precedents which foreshadow which direction black swans will trend in. Schools made history a boring and useless topic. But there is such a thing as real history. Which can be useful for predicting future events.

It can't be the first time things like this are happening all together. This is the first it happens in our generation,  almost like things are going from bad to worse without anyone knowing how it will all end for things to go back normal.
To me I think the biggest is covid-19,  it literally short the world down on a standstill. Russia-Ukraine war does not have such an impact on the entire world like covid-19. It was a time of history. First in my lifetime I see the power house America with deserted busy roads and places.
Imo, I don't see any other black swan as big as covid-19.

Well first to all and as far i know most of us are not so old.

SO for the majority of the years i has live, i dont see so many "black swans" like this time.

For anyone who are guessing what its a black swan its an unpredictable or unforeseen event, typically one with extreme consequences.

The MOST big Black Swan of the year was the start of the War in Ukraine with Rusia one of the main powers of the world directly involved.

This develop another Black Swan, the huge jump in Energy cost.

This one trigger another one, the Inflation rises.

And today we still seeing the efects of this Black Swan, its still developing.

But.... How this affect the Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies?.


In a BIG way, nobody spect a bear market in the traditional market and this bear market damage the crypto market because today the two are realted to each other making the bear market in crypto more complicated to solve. (a lot of companies are invested in crypto).

The jump in energy cost , make the mining not so profitable than before. The mining industry its living a really decay and you can see this, browsing not so much,a lot of companies are in bankruptcy.


Can you imagine the ETH for example without the change to PoS?.  A lot of people who put his money in mining can lose his money easily because of:

- LOW price of ETH.
- High and in some cases exponential increase of the cost of energy.

And the most "new" black swan its.....

USDollar being again so strong in the market.

https://twitter.com/tradingview/status/1575111389118595074

Nobody can expect this one year ago.

PS: Yes i know a lot of this things were developing before, but nobody expect to happen this fast or nobody think can really happen no matter what its.


So what can be the next black swan?.