Topic: So when is it going to blow? (Read 4706 times)
It will blow this week.
Here in Canada, Virtex does have low volume today. For example, if you want to sell, the price is 157$, but if you want to sell 5BTC, it goes down to 149$, and there's pretty much nothing until 145$... http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/virtexCAD.html
So, it's not incentive to buy at high price. If it start "crashing", then you're stuck watching the price fall or lose a lot selling.
So, it's not incentive to buy at high price. If it start "crashing", then you're stuck watching the price fall or lose a lot selling.
I'll repeat: Hoarded vs. sold does not matter from opportunity cost perspective, and any other perspective is misguided.
Frankly, I think the (BTC monetary) inflation rate is so low compared to all other factors that it does not really influence the price. It's only about 20% yearly.
Frankly, I think the (BTC monetary) inflation rate is so low compared to all other factors that it does not really influence the price. It's only about 20% yearly.
It influences it greatly because of the fact that a large part of it (50%) must pass trough exchanges.
It might seem low because we are still close to the top of the bubble, so your perceptions are distorted.
I'm not sure why people keep saying the volume is so low. Is it not at similar levels to March?
This current rally is based on very small volumes. The trend seems to be for low volume rallies and high volume crashes. I can't really make head nor tail of it.
We can't ignore the usual speculative rise, crash, rise, big crash format that tends to play out.
We can't ignore the usual speculative rise, crash, rise, big crash format that tends to play out.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Things will get worse before they get worse. Don't panic sell, if the price has peaked, you will get plenty of time to sell, just don't get too greedy and look to sell at the top.
And, did you have plenty of time at the top?
I'll repeat: Hoarded vs. sold does not matter from opportunity cost perspective, and any other perspective is misguided.
Frankly, I think the (BTC monetary) inflation rate is so low compared to all other factors that it does not really influence the price. It's only about 20% yearly.
Frankly, I think the (BTC monetary) inflation rate is so low compared to all other factors that it does not really influence the price. It's only about 20% yearly.
If we assumed 50% of those 3600 were to be sold off, right now selling 1800 at the highest bids would bring the value to around $225/BTC. To keep
Where did you get that number 50%? I suggest 2.71828 %, a very nice number, you are free to use it in your calculations.
Why sarcastic ? because miners are hoarding at the tune of ~90% and new money comming in is many million per days, not all of those 24 million $ in trade are pure inter exchange trade,,, at least 50% of it is new money, yes that's a number between 250 000$ and 12 000 000$
Yes if they are hoarding they are part of the new money. But they still have bills to pay, so they can only be "new money" for as long as they have some outside source of income to pay the bills generated by mining.In terms of you suggesting 50% of 24 million in volume is new money, how do you know this to be true?
On that 50% calculations can be made taking into account the line of 10000+ people waiting AML verification, the size of the spread time the number of cycles,
Any trade made within a 2.30$ range is a loosing one.
I haven't really made any real calculation but I would bet my number of ~10m$ for 1000 news bitcoins are closer to reality than the 230 000 for 2350 bitcoins (65%) I was replying to.
Why sarcastic ? because miners are hoarding at the tune of ~90% and new money comming in is many million per days, not all of those 24 million $ in trade are pure inter exchange trade,,, at least 50% of it is new money, yes that's a number between 250 000$ and 12 000 000$
Yes if they are hoarding they are part of the new money. But they still have bills to pay, so they can only be "new money" for as long as they have some outside source of income to pay the bills generated by mining.In terms of you suggesting 50% of 24 million in volume is new money, how do you know this to be true?
3600 BTC are currently minted every day. Hardware and electrical costs need to be paid, so a portion of that 3600 will be introduced into the market and sold at whatever they can get so they can pay their bills. If we assumed 50% of those 3600 were to be sold off, right now selling 1800 at the highest bids would bring the value to around $225/BTC. To keep it at $230.80/coin, $415,440 in new money/value would need to enter the market.
Why sarcastic ? because miners are hoarding at the tune of ~90% and new money comming in is many million per days, not all of those 24 million $ in trade are pure inter exchange trade,,, at least 50% of it is new money, yes that's a number between 250 000$ and 12 000 000$ 140 000 $ is what mtgox has made today with that 0.6% fee. (23m$ volume)
so it's even less possible,,, it would need 242k$ + 140k$ ... /sarcasm/
Edit: Sorry misread your post. Not sure why you're being sarcastic I believe that's a valid concern.so it's even less possible,,, it would need 242k$ + 140k$ ... /sarcasm/
3600 BTC are currently minted every day. Hardware and electrical costs need to be paid, so a portion of that 3600 will be introduced into the market and sold at whatever they can get so they can pay their bills. If we assumed 50% of those 3600 were to be sold off, right now selling 1800 at the highest bids would bring the value to around $225/BTC. To keep it at $230.80/coin, $415,440 in new money/value would need to enter the market.
140 000 $ is what mtgox has made today with that 0.6% fee. (23m$ volume)
so it's even less possible,,, it would need 242k$ + 140k$ ... /sarcasm/
Edit: Sorry misread your post. Not sure why you're being sarcastic I believe that's a valid concern. so it's even less possible,,, it would need 242k$ + 140k$ ... /sarcasm/
No it's not sustainable. I believe we would need to see a minimum of around $242000 USD/day of new money to maintain $192 USD/BTC (assuming ~65% profit for miners and 3600 BTC minted/day).
Out of curiosity, can you share how you got to this number? Not trolling or criticising, to the contrary I'm genuinely interested in knowing more about this.
No it's not sustainable. I believe we would need to see a minimum of around $242000 USD/day of new money to maintain $192 USD/BTC (assuming ~65% profit for miners and 3600 BTC minted/day).
140 000 $ is what mtgox has made today with that 0.6% fee. (23m$ volume)so it's even less possible,,, it would need 242k$ + 140k$ ... /sarcasm/
Approaching my next sell order at $240, part of me wants to pull it because it might go higher.
THEN I PUNCH MYSELF IN THE FACE FOR BEING STUPID
THEN I PUNCH MYSELF IN THE FACE FOR BEING STUPID
Patriot missiles were deployed around Tokyo today, so an international coordinated military operation will blow Gox if the bubble doesn't burst by itself!
bitter. lol. I am already no lose. If it goes to the moon I still have some, if it crashes to zero I am already thousands of dollars up.
Understanding risk is key to financial health. Right now you seem to think "ALL IN !!!1111one" is viable strategy. Good luck.
Bitter. lol.
Understanding risk is key to financial health. Right now you seem to think "ALL IN !!!1111one" is viable strategy. Good luck.
Bitter. lol.
+1
bitter. lol. I am already no lose. If it goes to the moon I still have some, if it crashes to zero I am already thousands of dollars up.
Understanding risk is key to financial health. Right now you seem to think "ALL IN !!!1111one" is viable strategy. Good luck.
Bitter. lol.
Understanding risk is key to financial health. Right now you seem to think "ALL IN !!!1111one" is viable strategy. Good luck.
Bitter. lol.
From another thread but this is how I feel about this thread!!
Now that's the kind of sentiment that prevails right before the bubble bursts. Every time.
Guess what? People been saying this since like, $15. Deal with it.
Sounds like you have paid the 'stupidity tax' not me. If Bitcoin dropped 96% today I'd be at breakeven and Litecoin has to drop 99.5%
History will be written like this: First there was the Internet which gave people the freedom to share knowledge, then Google organized the internet so others could quickly find it, then Facebook connected people on an daily basis within their entire social network and finally Bitcoin freed people financially from the rule of corrupt banksters!
I can see the future 60 minutes/ Dateline interview title. "Alarming suicide rate amongst early adopters of Bitcoin that sold too early." I am seeing a lot of negative "you are all stupid" for not selling posts. Obviously people are bitter that they sold too early. Do yourself a favor and buy back in while you still can. ..... ok I am done venting now
Correction coming fairly soon I think. We're close to a line of resistance on a same trend that goes back to the 2011 bubble.
Thats because these are the days that the bears committed seppuku by trying to cause a panic, but the bulls were just too strong. Then once they were out of the way, the bulls kept on and the bears had to catch up. The cycle has repeated over and over again just making the rate of increase stronger.
Blaming the mythical bear conspiracy for keeping the price down, now... I bet you'll be blaming them and imploring everyone to STOP SELLING! IF WE JUST STOP SELLING! on the way down, too... where have I seen this before?
Theres nothing mythical about it. There are plenty of people around here who readily admit that they sold their coins at 13 (and other prices) anticipating a drop.
That's a far cry from "trying to cause a panic" and "the bulls were just too strong." That sounds like some garbage the Norks would say about America.
Anticipating a drop and trying to create a drop are nearly the same thing, just depends on your level of aggression and willingness to do market orders vs. limit orders. Maybe you are new around here and dont remember what it was like after the price fell from 16, but there were very itchy sell fingers who were burned.
Thats because these are the days that the bears committed seppuku by trying to cause a panic, but the bulls were just too strong. Then once they were out of the way, the bulls kept on and the bears had to catch up. The cycle has repeated over and over again just making the rate of increase stronger.
Blaming the mythical bear conspiracy for keeping the price down, now... I bet you'll be blaming them and imploring everyone to STOP SELLING! IF WE JUST STOP SELLING! on the way down, too... where have I seen this before?
Theres nothing mythical about it. There are plenty of people around here who readily admit that they sold their coins at 13 (and other prices) anticipating a drop.
That's a far cry from "trying to cause a panic" and "the bulls were just too strong." That sounds like some garbage the Norks would say about America.
Blaming the mythical bear conspiracy for keeping the price down, now... I bet you'll be blaming them and imploring everyone to STOP SELLING! IF WE JUST STOP SELLING! on the way down, too... where have I seen this before?
Hehe, I remember that vividly. "MINERS DETERMINE THE PRICE JUST STOP SELLING" was the tune alright. Thats because these are the days that the bears committed seppuku by trying to cause a panic, but the bulls were just too strong. Then once they were out of the way, the bulls kept on and the bears had to catch up. The cycle has repeated over and over again just making the rate of increase stronger.
Blaming the mythical bear conspiracy for keeping the price down, now... I bet you'll be blaming them and imploring everyone to STOP SELLING! IF WE JUST STOP SELLING! on the way down, too... where have I seen this before?
Theres nothing mythical about it. There are plenty of people around here who readily admit that they sold their coins at 13 (and other prices) anticipating a drop.
Thats because these are the days that the bears committed seppuku by trying to cause a panic, but the bulls were just too strong. Then once they were out of the way, the bulls kept on and the bears had to catch up. The cycle has repeated over and over again just making the rate of increase stronger.
Blaming the mythical bear conspiracy for keeping the price down, now... I bet you'll be blaming them and imploring everyone to STOP SELLING! IF WE JUST STOP SELLING! on the way down, too... where have I seen this before?
img18.imageshack.us/img18/5691/difftoprice.jpg
If the price crashes any time this month, I really don't see it staying low for long (assuming no fundamental changes to bitcoin).
The amount of media coverage lately is crazy, a crash would only bring more. A lot of new people are either waiting to get money in, or they feel it's too late for them to buy. If the price drops a significant amount, it could be seen as a second chance.
We also know that bitcoin is capable of recovering from a bubble now, which probably wasn't as certain during the last one.
The amount of media coverage lately is crazy, a crash would only bring more. A lot of new people are either waiting to get money in, or they feel it's too late for them to buy. If the price drops a significant amount, it could be seen as a second chance.
We also know that bitcoin is capable of recovering from a bubble now, which probably wasn't as certain during the last one.
I hope it will blow pretty soon because I am then ready to buy some bitcoins to play this big game too. I am too late and if the things go down hill, then I start to take care about some bitcoins to drive them up hill. You are right.
When the unicorns come.
Maybe we can't predict the burst because all it takes is a coincidence: few large bears/hoarders decide it's time to cash-out in the same minute.
It looks like there are large nets set up to catch selloffs (and buyups.) The highest volume days seem to result in screw all price movement, while the lower volume days are the ones that cause moves. Tis a strange economy.
Thats because these are the days that the bears committed seppuku by trying to cause a panic, but the bulls were just too strong. Then once they were out of the way, the bulls kept on and the bears had to catch up. The cycle has repeated over and over again just making the rate of increase stronger.
Maybe we can't predict the burst because all it takes is a coincidence: few large bears/hoarders decide it's time to cash-out in the same minute.
It looks like there are large nets set up to catch selloffs (and buyups.) The highest volume days seem to result in screw all price movement, while the lower volume days are the ones that cause moves. Tis a strange economy.
it's not going to blow
If the price crashes any time this month, I really don't see it staying low for long (assuming no fundamental changes to bitcoin).
The amount of media coverage lately is crazy, a crash would only bring more. A lot of new people are either waiting to get money in, or they feel it's too late for them to buy. If the price drops a significant amount, it could be seen as a second chance.
We also know that bitcoin is capable of recovering from a bubble now, which probably wasn't as certain during the last one.
The amount of media coverage lately is crazy, a crash would only bring more. A lot of new people are either waiting to get money in, or they feel it's too late for them to buy. If the price drops a significant amount, it could be seen as a second chance.
We also know that bitcoin is capable of recovering from a bubble now, which probably wasn't as certain during the last one.
Things will get worse before they get worse. Don't panic sell, if the price has peaked, you will get plenty of time to sell, just don't get too greedy and look to sell at the top.
Well they're assuming they are hoarding their profit in BTC, and liquidating what's necessary to pay the bills. So in that sense I think profit margin would matter. I do believe miners aren't selling off right now, not more than they need to cover costs. I don't believe they're investing USD and hoarding BTC.
By hoarding they're forgoing the opportunity to sell, which is equivalent to spending the current market value.
Maybe we can't predict the burst because all it takes is a coincidence: few large bears/hoarders decide it's time to cash-out in the same minute.
Well they're assuming they are hoarding their profit in BTC, and liquidating what's necessary to pay the bills. So in that sense I think profit margin would matter. I do believe miners aren't selling off right now, not more than they need to cover costs. I don't believe they're investing USD and hoarding BTC.
No it's not sustainable. I believe we would need to see a minimum of around $242000 USD/day of new money to maintain $192 USD/BTC (assuming ~65% profit for miners and 3600 BTC minted/day).
1. You assumed ~65% profitability for miners.
Actually, mining profitability is of no consequence. The costs that are poured into mining are new money too. So, actually, at $192/BTC, $619200 of net new money must be inserted in the BTC economy. Whether that is a small or a large sum depends on what you compare it with.
edit: and by "new money" I mean "new value".
Well if that's true and there is $1.68million of new money coming in per week, nothing to worry about then. If I could be more thoroughly convinced of that I'd be bullish, too.
The assumption that was made about the new miner calculation which wasn't brought up, but is probably the most important, is that the miners will choose to sell all of their bitcoins. Most miners I know keep the vast majority of their mined coins within the Bitcoin economy and only sell enough to break even with electricity costs.
That is what I was trying to say earlier, though I must not have been clear enough.
No but that has nothing to do with the price of tea in China. The point is that $240K in USD (or other fiat equivelent) being injected into BTC economy is nothing, a rounding error. If the exchange rate falls it will have nothing to do with not enough new money coming in to keep up with new BTC printing.
What? You brought it up why are you now suggesting it's meaningless? Why say you net $48,000 USD when you don't? And yes, that inflationary pressure is real and gets even more real the higher the price per BTC goes.He said he facilitates 48k in volume, not that they profit that amount.
I don't know what he does but how does he know it's new money?
No but that has nothing to do with the price of tea in China. The point is that $240K in USD (or other fiat equivelent) being injected into BTC economy is nothing, a rounding error. If the exchange rate falls it will have nothing to do with not enough new money coming in to keep up with new BTC printing.
What? You brought it up why are you now suggesting it's meaningless? Why say you net $48,000 USD when you don't? And yes, that inflationary pressure is real and gets even more real the higher the price per BTC goes.He said he facilitates 48k in volume, not that they profit that amount.
No but that has nothing to do with the price of tea in China. The point is that $240K in USD (or other fiat equivelent) being injected into BTC economy is nothing, a rounding error. If the exchange rate falls it will have nothing to do with not enough new money coming in to keep up with new BTC printing.
What? You brought it up why are you now suggesting it's meaningless? Why say you net $48,000 USD when you don't? And yes, that inflationary pressure is real and gets even more real the higher the price per BTC goes. 
Bitcoin's rocket engines are blowing out huge balls of fire.
No but that has nothing to do with the price of tea in China. The point is that $240K in USD (or other fiat equivelent) being injected into BTC economy is nothing, a rounding error. If the exchange rate falls it will have nothing to do with not enough new money coming in to keep up with new BTC printing.
The assumption that was made about the new miner calculation which wasn't brought up, but is probably the most important, is that the miners will choose to sell all of their bitcoins. Most miners I know keep the vast majority of their mined coins within the Bitcoin economy and only sell enough to break even with electricity costs.
If they keep it, they're investing their USD by covering their electrical expenditures out of pocket. It's still inflow (35% as I said above).
The assumption that was made about the new miner calculation which wasn't brought up, but is probably the most important, is that the miners will choose to sell all of their bitcoins. Most miners I know keep the vast majority of their mined coins within the Bitcoin economy and only sell enough to break even with electricity costs.
I'm not sure what you mean. Your "tiny" company nets $48,000/day?
No it's not sustainable. I believe we would need to see a minimum of around $242000 USD/day of new money to maintain $192 USD/BTC (assuming ~65% profit for miners and 3600 BTC minted/day).
Uh if you think $240K isn't possible well our tiny company does about 20% of that on a slow day (and >100% of that on our best days) honestly without really trying. Yes that is cold hard fiat being used to buy BTC (not day trading buy a direct conversion of fiat for BTC).
So via TC, LLC $50K fiat inflows .... entire balance of all other exchanges, brokers, service providers, plus all OTC traders <$190K? I doubt it.
Two problems I see with this:
1. You assumed ~65% profitability for miners.
2. You gave the amount required to sustain this in USD/day, when the real amount would be denominated in multiple currencies.
I assumed 65% because that's what I've been told is currently the profit margin, which leaves roughly 35% as cost. USD is an example, price it in whatever you want it doesn't change the underlying principle. Inflation is still real and needs to be addressed with new inflow or value will go down. 1. You assumed ~65% profitability for miners.
2. You gave the amount required to sustain this in USD/day, when the real amount would be denominated in multiple currencies.
Well if I am just please post why without conjecture. I'm telling you that this money must come in from somewhere, whether it's miners, speculators, new adopters, whatever. If I'm wrong I'm very open to be enlightened, this is just my understanding.
...Is the current price holding because people are dumping millions a day into gold? I don't know. ...
Yes, it is, because miners have costs they need to pay for, and they're going to sell their gold to pay those bills. (Disregard this if you aren't referring to the price of gold).Yeah sorry, meant to say the literal metal (XAU). It's sitting at a "low" of $1,500+ an oz. Who's to say BTC couldn't reach that and level off?
No it's not sustainable. I believe we would need to see a minimum of around $242000 USD/day of new money to maintain $192 USD/BTC (assuming ~65% profit for miners and 3600 BTC minted/day).
Two problems I see with this:
1. You assumed ~65% profitability for miners.
2. You gave the amount required to sustain this in USD/day, when the real amount would be denominated in multiple currencies.
That you could be very wrong lol 
Well if I am just please post why without conjecture. I'm telling you that this money must come in from somewhere, whether it's miners, speculators, new adopters, whatever. If I'm wrong I'm very open to be enlightened, this is just my understanding.
...Is the current price holding because people are dumping millions a day into gold? I don't know. ...
Yes, it is, because miners have costs they need to pay for, and they're going to sell their gold to pay those bills. (Disregard this if you aren't referring to the price of gold).
That does sound like a lot but worldwide it's not much. A few people last night bought orders over 60 coins alone, and 200-250 is pretty common still. Sometime during the early morning EST I think, I saw my recorded charts blip with a near 1,000 coin buy. I think it is hard for us to realize just how much money there is in the world.
That's $12K and $40-50K respectively, more or less, at this rate. A few of those scale buys and oh, $250K is taken care of.
Now, sure, I think there does need to be a lot more usability for BTC coming up but again I just look to gold. Is the current price holding because people are dumping millions a day into gold? I don't know. I think we can still grow for a very long time though.
That's $12K and $40-50K respectively, more or less, at this rate. A few of those scale buys and oh, $250K is taken care of.
Now, sure, I think there does need to be a lot more usability for BTC coming up but again I just look to gold. Is the current price holding because people are dumping millions a day into gold? I don't know. I think we can still grow for a very long time though.
I'm not sure what you're trying to imply.
That you could be very wrong lol
I'm not sure what you're trying to imply.
No it's not sustainable. I believe we would need to see a minimum of around $242000 USD/day of new money to maintain $192 USD/BTC (assuming ~65% profit for miners and 3600 BTC minted/day).
Bernanke prints 85 billion a month..
No it's not sustainable. I believe we would need to see a minimum of around $242000 USD/day of new money to maintain $192 USD/BTC (assuming ~65% profit for miners and 3600 BTC minted/day).
Is the price really sustainable?
Eventually everyone will get scared and dump their load on the people who come in late
Price will go crashing down and the manipulators will have made their multimillion profits.
I sense a price peak soon.
Eventually everyone will get scared and dump their load on the people who come in late
Price will go crashing down and the manipulators will have made their multimillion profits.
I sense a price peak soon.
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