Topic: Solo BTC mining - I will hit that block! (Read 254 times)

Thanks very much for the help. I appreciate it a lot!

Power is around 4Kw/h, space is not a problem, noise is also not a problem too...I never minded anything with Asic Miners, i just mined with graphic card few years ago on linux.

They are called Asic Miners, Antminer is just one brand by Bitmain which is the largest manufacturer, what is the exact power rate you have? total power capacity? space? is noise a problem? 3k Euros can get you 1 gear and can get you 10 gears, it will depend on the points I mentioned above.

Ok so me and my friend got the deal that we will try to go full solo mining with the power supply which is really cheap in our area (basically a village where I live etc.).

We got around 3k euros for hash miners (antminers or what is it called) and we will go only on btc, to help spread the hash power, decentralization, etc...

What kind of machines do you guys recommend? How many TH/s can i get for 3k euros ?

If you guys help me find the best devices I will keep you informed here on this thread about the progress (also i want to go and track everything about that process somewhere in the public sites too)...

...im 31 and my friend is around 60. And before he went full yolo on this he was like: "man i dont want this technology to pass by just like that and me not be in the part of it"

Chances of winning the lottery: 1 in ~14 million (source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lottery_mathematics)

Chances of hitting a block using an RX460 GPU in one week (about the frequency of most national lottery drawings): 1 in ~649 million (see below)
The gpu is running @ 240 Mh/s  (source:https://technical.city/en/video/Radeon-RX-460 )
The total network's hashrate is 157.70 EH/s  (source: https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/hashrate-chart)
So, with your gpu you are responsible for 1/654.166.666.666 part of the total hashrate... (divide 157.7Eh by 240 Mh)

This means that, in any given week running 24/7, you'll have ~(6*24*7)/654.166.666.666 chance of hitting a block (on average 1 block every 10 minutes = 6 blocks/hour, 24 hours per day, 7 days per week.... on average offcourse, can be a little more or a little less).
That's about 1 in 648.974.867

So... If you play lotto once a week, the odds of having 6 correct lotto balls is about 46 times bigger than the odds of hitting a single block using your gpu...

 Not only your odds of winning the lottery are much better, the cost of a lottery ticket is probably only slightly higher since the RX460 seems to draw about 75Watt (*24 hours * 7 days = 12,6 Kwh) + power consumed by the pc you use to insert the video card + cost of the card + cost of the pc + cost of your ISP + .... AND the payout is probably a lot higher... Sure, bitcoin's conversion rate is pretty high right now, but it's still only $300k-$400k/block, i think most lottery's pay out a lot more)

Better chances than winning the lotterie! just go for it !

If you check this chart, you will notice an indirect factor related to the price and Bitcoin cycles, in which the return from mining decreases after halving bump cycle, and during the coming months, many expect the price of Bitcoin to rise, and therefore you will find that more mining devices will enter the network and therefore the return will decrease during the next three months to The end of the year (the price of Bitcoin rises) and historically the return decreases after each halving dump, and therefore if you want to try your luck, it is better to do so from the month of 4-6 of the next year.


to calculate your luck= total network hashrate/"potential" hash rate.
Therefore, your chances may change dramatically and it is wrong to rely on single mining because you may not achieve any income.

Oh my bad, I dont know why I thought it was not per day but per block even tho i wrote at the end "in 24 hours". So ok it was per day that i got that chances! Roger that...

So how much that miner can cost and how much he uses energy? Cuz i might be able to set it up. I got knowledge in networking, tcp ip, linux so it wouldnt be a problem. The only thing i lack is knowledge in power supply, terawatts or whatever you need to calculating how much power device is spending.

Well the chances got a little worse yesterday due to the 13.24% diff increase but ...

Firstly I wrote this many years ago:
http://tradebtc.net/bitcalc.php

Network difficulty is now 17615033039278.9 (17.6T)
(1T is 10^12)

So the 'expected' hashes to find a block is 17615033039278.9 x 2^32 = 75655990821662358922854.4 hashes

A 100TH/s miner does 100T * 60 * 60 * 24 hashes a day or 8640000000000000000 hashes a day

So simply divide the two 75655990821662358922854.4 / 8640000000000000000 ~= 8756.6

i.e. at the current (new) difficulty a 100TH/s miner has an 'expected' 1 in 8756.6 chance of finding a block in a day.

Of course these are the 'expected' values, since it's random.

See https://kano.is/index.php?k=poisson
for more details about what that means.

( also note that 1 diff is not 'exactly' 2^32 but rather 2^48 / 65535 )

USB is here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/gekkoscience-has-a-new-stickminer-that-does-300gh-5355470

It's rather simple, take total network hashrate (can be found using a simple google search, it's not 100% accurate and you can use diff to derive it but not that it matters given the scope) you divide it by your "potential" hash rate , you get a number X, that number is your "share" of the network, it simply means how many blocks on average you would wait to hit a block

So current bitcoin hashrate is around 130EH or 130,000,000 TH, with 100TH your chances are 1 in 1,300,000 for every block, since there is on average 144 blocks a day, you can divide that by 144 and you get 1 in 9,027 for TH. The difficulty / total hashrate was lower when the member above did that math, just goes out to show how a few days can make a lot of difference.

Now that you know you only have 1 in 9k chances mining with 100TH, you can apply the same math on your GPU, how fast does it hash, maybe 50MH? that is 0.00005TH, your chances per day will increase from 9027 to 18,055,555,555, that's nearly about 20,000,0000% less luck, mind you, 1 in 9027 is already as bad as it gets.

How is that you got 1 in 7733 with 100TH/s ? Im not paying for the power supply at the docks where I work so im just getting curious... Link for that USB would be appreciated  

Thanks for the replays both of you 

You can buy a tiny USB miner for around $200, that does 360GH/s and uses 15W.

That is the equivalent performance of about 360 to 600 GPUs.

At the moment, a 1GH/s GPU miner has a bit better than 1 in a billion chance of finding a block if you run it full speed for 24 hours.
That chance keeps getting worse every 2 weeks.

Your GPU will die and you'll get nothing for all the power you use, centuries before you would ever find a block.

You can buy a very expensive S19 miner that does about 100TH/s and that currently has a 1 in 7733 chance of finding a block if you run it full speed for 24 hours.
That chance keeps getting worse every 2 weeks.
Yeah even that expensive miner is not on very good odds ...

Yea but what does "CAN NOT meaningfully mining btc today" means? That btc nodes and apps are not built for that today or that i have extremely low chances? Because i want to try. Its like "we prohibit you to play lottery because you will not make it" ?

If i need ASICs only to mine it then ok, but i cant see a problem if i want to hit out hash with 25.000.000 hashes on this crazy network hash ratio today.

BITCOIN MINING INTRO & RULES OF THIS SUBFORUM - READ BEFORE POSTING

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-mining-intro-rules-of-this-subforum-read-before-posting-2415854

I have been in a crypto since 2014 but i never used this forum. This is my first post .

I have some feeling that i should try to hit some of the blocks right now and get 6.25btc. I dreaming over and over that my GPU will hit 18 zeros ))

So Im trying to find any tutorial so I can mine with RX460. I tried with CGMiner but i just cant make a good script or something. Whenever I run the StartMiner.bat CMD windows splashes for a second and it despair.

Im using windows 10 and got fully run node on the PC.

I would appreciate any help here since I search all over the internet for a solution.

EDIT: and yea i know its a 1 block in 11,000 years with my 11MH/s