some BTC price forecasts based on regressions

DVlog

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Quote from: Husires on October 09, 2022, 03:04:15 AM

Quote from: gbianchi on October 05, 2022, 10:50:33 AM

If you want to pay attention to this little exercise, it seems that for 2025 a target of around $ 200,000 is practically mandatory

on the other hand, the S2F target, which predicts around $ 1,000,000, seems to be absolutely overestimated, which would mean continuing the trend
2011 (green).

Does anyone believe that S2F targets is still considered targets whose results can be trusted? I was a supporter of that model, but model broken when price was far a way from 100k, so we should not assume that the model will be accurate about a 1M.

A price like $200,000 is still exaggerated and levels like 100k to 120k are considered reasonable.

You are right. BTC has become less volatile than before. Every year it loses its aggressiveness which is normal I think. The market has become more mature and people buy back and sell off to a more reasonable price over time. This volatility will be less and less within the next decade. 120k to 150k is a reasonable price for BTC in the next bull market to me. BTC market is unique in nature so it will be better to try not to bound it in some certain model.

STT

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Sideways is basically the boring but best guess for our route through this, the main reason why that could happen despite the upset and declining main markets overall is inflation. If dollar and every other currency in the world has inflation and even if Dollar is stronger then the others, it means all of them are losing value vs real things. We only have to decide then if BTC is a real value asset or purely bound to Dollar as a speculative instrument.
I think because paper money is losing money, thats why we are likely to keep going sideways as the value lost is not exactly shown on the graph but all the same people are quite rightly well placed to have something in BTC not just paper promissory notes. All commodities are going up in price vs paper notes, long term multi year they will cost more and so too will BTC as its own kind of global commodity. The graphs I would rather go with a plain old simple moving average but all views are correct to consider.

Jating

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Quote from: adaseb on October 09, 2022, 11:00:47 PM

Right now it reminds me of what happened in Nov 2018. We basically got no volatility. Even with the good job report last week, we dumped a little and stocks dumped even more. Bitcoin is basically trading sideways.

The volatility now is going back to 2 year lows. Similar to Nov 2018, where we traded sideways for 2 months and then boom, crazy 50% crash. I predict that we will see something similar here for the month of November. However we don't know whether it'll be up or down. Maybe you can buy some options to play both directions.

Yes, thanks for mentioning that because I also see similar patterns from November 2018.

So we might see the price still going down next year, I know others doesn't want to hear that, but if the pattern holds true and see an imminent crash might be still in the calendar for next year.

Or if there's no crash to like the levels of $10k, we will see another low maybe in the $15k range.

adaseb

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Right now it reminds me of what happened in Nov 2018. We basically got no volatility. Even with the good job report last week, we dumped a little and stocks dumped even more. Bitcoin is basically trading sideways.

The volatility now is going back to 2 year lows. Similar to Nov 2018, where we traded sideways for 2 months and then boom, crazy 50% crash. I predict that we will see something similar here for the month of November. However we don't know whether it'll be up or down. Maybe you can buy some options to play both directions.

Kemarit

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Quote from: Husires on October 09, 2022, 03:04:15 AM

Quote from: gbianchi on October 05, 2022, 10:50:33 AM

If you want to pay attention to this little exercise, it seems that for 2025 a target of around $ 200,000 is practically mandatory

on the other hand, the S2F target, which predicts around $ 1,000,000, seems to be absolutely overestimated, which would mean continuing the trend
2011 (green).

Does anyone believe that S2F targets is still considered targets whose results can be trusted? I was a supporter of that model, but model broken when price was far a way from 100k, so we should not assume that the model will be accurate about a 1M.

A price like $200,000 is still exaggerated and levels like 100k to 120k are considered reasonable.

I do agree, in the beginning, there was a huge hype on the S2F model, specially that it hit as the model predicted in November 2021 and so we are on target of more than $100,000 December that year. But we all know what happens and so it's really a exaggeration that it points out to a million bitcoin per pop in the next bull run. So I would say though that this model might be good to look back later and as a conservative estimates or around $180,000-$200,000 as plotted based on regressions could be hit, in my opinion.

Husires

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Quote from: gbianchi on October 05, 2022, 10:50:33 AM

If you want to pay attention to this little exercise, it seems that for 2025 a target of around $ 200,000 is practically mandatory

on the other hand, the S2F target, which predicts around $ 1,000,000, seems to be absolutely overestimated, which would mean continuing the trend
2011 (green).

Does anyone believe that S2F targets is still considered targets whose results can be trusted? I was a supporter of that model, but model broken when price was far a way from 100k, so we should not assume that the model will be accurate about a 1M.

A price like $200,000 is still exaggerated and levels like 100k to 120k are considered reasonable.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: gbianchi on October 05, 2022, 10:50:33 AM

An interesting fact immediately emerges: the regression from 2019 is steeper than that of 2017,
that is, on the average of recent years, the price rises more than the older average;
intuitively I would never have said that, but it seems that recently the price has started to rise again
more aggressively than in the past.

The regression from 2013 was also steeper than that of 2015 while 2017 was more flat. Its because of market cycles and random cutoff date gives random end resoults (100x pump than -85% dump and 40x pump, 90% dump and so on). The one thing is certain. Each bull market is weaker, volatility goes down so I expect exponential regressions line that starts in 2021 to be even more flat which makes 2025 target @ 200k$ unlikely (based on this one indicator only)

gbianchi

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To have some fun, I generated some extrapolations of the BTC price.

This is a simple mathematical exercise, it is not meant to be "Yet Another BTC Price Model"

To begin with I have done some exponential regressions, starting from 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017 and 2019 to date.

Then using these regressions I made an exponential extrapolation of the prices to 2024/12/31

Obviously plotting exponential lines on a logarithmic graph, these appear linear:

An interesting fact immediately emerges: the regression from 2019 is steeper than that of 2017,
that is, on the average of recent years, the price rises more than the older average;
intuitively I would never have said that, but it seems that recently the price has started to rise again
more aggressively than in the past.

Even taking for granted the "less aggressive" of the regressions, the 2017 (light blue),
see what EXACTLY the same thing looks like plotted in linear graph:

If you want to pay attention to this little exercise, it seems that for 2025 a target of around $ 200,000 is practically mandatory

on the other hand, the S2F target, which predicts around $ 1,000,000, seems to be absolutely overestimated, which would mean continuing the trend
2011 (green).

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