Topic: Some Tips for This Falling Market - How I'm approaching it as long-time trader (Read 102 times)

I am not a financial advisor. so whatever I am saying is just my opinion and should be taken as such.  There are no guarantees in markets, and often times become quite irrational before getting better... but for those who are completely lost, let me just give you some thoughts for how I'm handling this and what I'm doing, so you can add it to your data in making calm decisions.

First off, calm down.  This is really scary stuff for all of us, but you can't be running around with your head cut off... you need to be clear of mind and be ready to make decisions affecting the next 3-6 months of trading.

So now that we are all calm, lets think about what we do if this gets a lot worse before it gets better.. The first question I asked myself today was if this goes into a full-blown bear market with months and months of consolidation, do I need to take some money off the table to live on or that I need to protect?  This is something that should be asked, because you cannot have this affecting your decision-making process if we continue down.  People say to not risk money you can't afford to lose for this very reason.. you will make absolutely ridiculous decisions in panicking in a falling dagger market if you're gonna immediately need the money for a life event, mortgage, bills, etc.  Each person will need to re-analyze if this is true before we go further down.

Now that I have taken the money off the table I'm not willing to lose and I am calm... I can start developing a strategy.  Do I need to hedge my losses?  Should I simultaneously short bitcoin while taking out alt positions?  Do I need to take some out of alts because I'm too heavy, into btc or tether?  Will the market present better options potentially and do I need to set up some sort of strategy as a safe space but also a potential opportunity to play?  I know no one wants to think this way, but what if we break down from 6000? How about 5000?  3000?  Its not a good move to be all in on alts for sure right now... so I've consolidated some of my positions out of alts I really don't like and bought ones that I like going forward.  Since all alts are kind of bleeding out at around the same level, it may be a good idea to get ones you are more comfortable holding onto if things get worse... Think NANO is a shitcoin?  Well dump it for something else that's bled out equally... don't be afraid to do this.. the math makes sense... I dumped things that were less bled out for things that were getting bloodied the most, especially if they are at or below March lows.

If you are going to buy alts though, you need to ladder in positions.. I've started taking some positions but just nibbles for now.. in case it gets worse.. Like I really want some NULS because I believe in this project long term so I set orders going from 36000 all the way down to 20000 sats in case of a flash crash.. it takes the emotion out of it for me and I know even if it goes below that I'll be okay with those positions long term and I feel like I'm taking advantage of the red discounts but have lowball orders in case it gets worse.  It'll keep my emotions in check since if I catch some orders and the market recovers then great, but if it continues down, even better... i get my lower risk high reward bags as well and cost average down my whole position.

Which gets to my next point.. never run out of BTC when buying alts in a crash.. you always need more to cover the bottom no matter how low it goes.. my bags will be incredibly heavy if we go down to 5k BTC and I'll be somewhat uncomfortable.  With my heavy bags that at the very most will be 40-50% of my portfolio.  Alts are constantly out of position in these markets and you always need to be able to cost average if things go south.. I know they make the most money when in position, but in times like these, they are the easiest to bleed out.. you need a combination of aggressive strategy and safe for whatever may happen.

The last thing I'm thinking about today is DO NOT SHORT OR LONG ON MARGIN.. manipulation is definitely about.. and on top of that price is gonna eventually end up in a tug of war that will liquidate everyone when we hit the bottom.  If you do plan on going 10X or higher, be prepared to lose all of it.. I've been so tempted and I think I would have been fine on 2 of the 3 entries I hypothetically made, but I would eventually lose from the confidence I gained from clearing successfully.  This is not a game to be playing.

Some other thoughts are... no one knows for sure what will happen.. We could shoot up now or drop to 3k BTC.. be aware of people who claim they know for sure..at best you may have an educated guess from experience and TA, but with bart candle manipulation and exchanges at low liquidity, past experience may actually hinder over help.  But if you believe in this market like I do, you gotta take some risks and view it as opportunities.  

Some of the points I'm making will hopefully be a good read for some, but the reality is, the market could repeat 2014 if we drop low enough and spiral into a bear market for a year... but even being out of position closer to the bottom will be less painful than being all in right now and watching red candle after red candle.

Good luck, stay safe, and trade without emotion... trust me we're all feeling the worry, but you can't let it get in the way of your job or hobby.   Hopefully soon permalong to 50k.

Please post some your own strategies, tips, or talking points below.