Topic: Something is Brewing Under the Surface in $BTC... (Read 326 times)

Bitcoin Price Update for September 15, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

Once again we are left with little to talk about in terms of price action in the bitcoin markets given they continue to stagnate in a contracting range which now sits between 605 - 610 $.  While this may be frustrating for shorter term traders, we think it is setting the market up for a much more substantial move as we creep into autumn.  Also, despite a fairly broad range of spot prices on the major BTC exchanges, the majority of them are currently higher than the Stamp price (even BTC-e) which confirms our upside bias for the time being.  Throw in what are some approaching positive fundamentals in the form of SegWit via 0.13.1, Lightning Network developments, and RootStock for smart contracts, and we think the market is getting primed for a test of the upper 600's $ in the not too distant future.

Not only are the fundamentals turning slightly more positive over the next few months, but the technicals are also telling us that something is brewing under the surface.  We can see on the 12-hour chart below that while price remains in the large symmetrical triangle consolidation, the failure to breakout did not lead to a major selloff down to the lower ascending trendline.  Also notice that SCMR is still not painting red candles despite some minor price pressure and somewhat bearish near term market structure, and no new dynamic support is building while strong resistance still hangs overhead.

Moving on to momentum and volume we can see that Willy is finally coming back down while RSI holds the centerline, MACD is flatlining along with price, and PPO is back to neutral from slightly overbought. Additionally, the 9/18 EMA cross is now neutral as well, and the 200-period SMA remains in an uptrend but will continue to act as near term resistance due to positioning.  As far as volume goes, the A/D line is still steadily climbing to the upside, exchange volumes are falling again, and volume profile remains porous between 580 - 600 $, as well as below 565 $.  While we do not want to read too much into this considering what we see as an emerging bullish setup, it is important to note that a selloff down into our ST ProTrade buy zone is still a definite possibility. 

With that said, we still want to remain firm in our VST PT long off of the 596 $ level along with our breakeven stoploss in order to manage risk in this environment.  While we do not want to reload there before unloading our current position, we would be willing to add to the MT PT down in our ST buy zone, so we will be watching this closely as we head into the weekend.  Ideally, price would rally to test the 620 - 630 $ area again which would give us a chance to exit the VST trade, followed by a retracement down into the 570 - 600 $ range going into next week which could then reverse quickly and head up into the mid to high 600's $ (MT OTE short zone) in fairly short order.  This may be asking for a bit too much, however this is the roadmap we are traveling with right now so take it for what its worth.

GLGT!

Chart: https://twitter.com/BullBearAnalyst/status/776458850979418112