Topic: Something unexpected needs to happen? (Read 547 times)

Definitely, a lot of leg room to wiggle again.


Yes, just like when predicting $20k is taboo in 2017, (no one actually believed) but it seems investors is now seeing a major price in 2021, ranging from $30k-$50% estimates, which is conservative numbers to 6 digits figure, based on stock to flow model.

   It's a place for believers, but what we believe in will not happen tomorrow. It will take time, some of us waiting for that to happen
for more than a year, and some of us are ready to wait even longer than that. But before we come to that we will have good and bad
day, bad days like the one yesterday and today, and if tomorrow we see another bad day and Bitcoin under $10k that can shake some
believers, but not me. I will try to buy this dip, and to show my faith with making my positions even stronger!

indeed there is no relationship but when the market goes down in other sectors, then they will look for new ways or new fields, and maybe put funds in crypto.then a project with defi became the trend in the midst of an economic crisis like this, I'm not sure if this is true, or is it the hype that someone else is deliberately taking advantage of because the situation is right to do it.

Unfortunately we do not have the high liquidity to make any of this work for now, it looks like bitcoin is not moving around at all this week as well, it would probably rest at where it is right now for a while and collect itself, there will be people who accumulate, there will be people who do high leveraged futures, and in the end when bitcoin gets a bit more attention, or someone takes the big first step, the price will start to move again, without that it will just keep on staying like this.

People forget that stagnant bitcoin is something as well, they all remember the volatile bitcoin but they are forgetting that volatile bitcoin happens in between the stagnant bitcoin moments, it is not moving 10%+ every single hour of every single day, that only happens like once a week on average.

A quick and simple analysis on how YFI situation could recover bitcoin believers to get back in the game and ride bitcoin to the new ATH just like what YFI did yesterday.

Strong message. There's a lot of space to grow!

$50k or even $100k isn't something taboo now.
Bitcoin is a place for believers isn't it?

There are 2 scenarios that may happen , 1st is the price may pierce to the dynamic resistance which is the 20 MA which is considered as short term resistance. The bad thing is the current candlestick resist on that MA and I think it will bounce and may go to the support again. But the day is not end and we have more 16 hours to see what will happen to closing of the candle. In this past days, the movement of the bitcoin is good and as you can see the price bounce at support level and made a swing high again. If the price managed to pierce through 20 MA, it may go to the resistance level and it will also try to challenge the current resistance level.

I think the price will consolidate more because there are no volume spike and also the rsi is making lower highs. The good thing is we are still in uptrend and consolidations are normal. For those who want to entry to get many bitcoins as much as you can in the support level because that area already proven that there are demands and willing buyers in that support.

to be fair one way of looking at the current situation is that price just came back to normal and what we had recently was not a rise or market conditions improving, instead it was simply a (reverse) correction of an unreasonable crash due to the pandemic which had nothing to do with bitcoin.
remember that price was around the current price before the pandemic and it was actually rising trying to enter above $12k-13k levels.

because the economic crisis is decreasing but does not make the market continue to decline, it is evident that after the mass decline in March now market conditions have started to improve, it indicates that investors believe that the economy will grow after this crisis.
and isn't that so, after the crisis the economy will grow even bigger.

It shouldn't be surprising at all. In a situation where many people are forced to work from home and people are losing jobs left and right there will not be a lot of new investors and a lot of companies ready to spend money on blockchain integration.
The price of Bitcoin is doing fine because it's still seen as an appreciating asset with bull markets starting right after halvings.

I do agree that bitcoin price will go up, it will probably go up a lot more than what we can imagine right now realistically, it would probably be around 30-40 thousand which never happened before and double of the all time high price so it would be awesome.

However I do not agree that 340k is possible, people just take the % that went up and use the same % in this years increase as well and tell you that 340k is possible because last time it went up that much however in reality that is not the case because last time it was simpler since the price was lower whereas it is harder right now because price is higher and it requires billions of dollars more to increase the same % as the last time. Hopefully people can figure that out before it is too late and they end up losing money.

Right, same thing as we don't know how many are traders/investors/bitcoin holders because all we can see in wallet addresses which can be duplicates.


I wouldn't say people are losing confidence, but perhaps we are looking for other ways to mitigate the risk without waiting for the government's help. Printing money is another thing and in the long run it won't be the solution, and this bailouts can only go further and only big companies are going to benefit from it. And since we have crypto as somewhat an option for us to somewhat hedge our wealth against the looming crisis.

since there is no way to actually measure adoption you have no way of knowing how much adoption bitcoin is gaining.

that lack of confidence is mostly palpable in gold in my opinion since it has been reacting right away to everything that is related to money printing (FED statements about interest rates, printing money,...) but bitcoin has been doing its own thing and moving upwards regardless of all that with its always distinct pattern.

What I find surprising is that even if bitcoin is not gaining a lot of adoption it is still growing up in price, most likely this has to do with the weakness shown by the economy due to the crisis brought by the coronavirus.

It seems that investors are losing confidence in the way governments are managing the crisis, it seems investors no longer trust that printing huge amounts of money are going to be the cure for the economic problems we are facing, and they are right, as the next crisis is probably not only going to be precipitated by printing currency but it will also be the main reason of the crisis itself.

Transactions are restricted. In many countries, Bitcoin and other cryptos are not yet accepted as a mode of payment. There are still countries wherein cryptos are not yet legal and not yet supported. The main use of crypos at this moment is still related to investment purposes. No matter how people in this industry wanted to use cryptos for daily purposes, they cannot do a thing because of the legality of Bitcoin and cryptos. And we cannot blame them because they would be deprived from using cryptos as a traditional digital currencies. And reality check, there will be more years to come for cryptos to be used in daily services.

The sad thing about bitcoin is the fact that unexpected things could happen in crypto a lot, we are talking about something so volatile and so unregulated that tomorrow there could be 5 billion dollars worth of bitcoin bought and nobody would be shocked, I mean they would be a little shocked but it is not illegal or there is no laws against it, if someone wants to do it they can do it, do you know how hard it is to make a 5 billion dollar purchase for any stock?

It would take weeks even months of getting ready for something like that to happen, in crypto it takes just few hours for the transaction to be confirmed and that's it. That is why do not really put all your eggs in the crypto market, unexpected stuff happens here all the time and you could be not ready when that happens.

Actually it is expected somehow but seems impossible for now to become reality but as crypto Holder i am looking from every sides of each to at least happen little by little so in next years there will be development.
i hate seeing things being not consider while there are some chances for this to come.

Adoption is what we really need here.
Bitcoin and cryptos must be on top of every people and believing on this more than Fiat and other online Money.

Don't worry Crypto is full of surprises mate you will be shocked always for what this can bring you,while others are claiming about the Bear in the next day Bull will come.

But i like your Point here at least something we must expect before seeing the progress of the market.
actually i can stand to wait more even if this take me holding till next year but if this can happen in 4th quarter then i will be glad.

I am looking towards breaking the upper bound and I have kept a close eyes on this for over a week now. BTC is an asset that both individual and institution love to hold for long time. We are yet to see mass adoption and great days lies ahead.

yep , new stuffs are always questionable but at the same time people got curious and that makes them try btc  . thier doubts remove after they found out that btc was legit and useful .  they dont need to rush to own a btc because the supply of btc is still millions and every one of us can get a piece of it   . its supply might be limited but theres no proof that price can increase every year  but price can also decrease or remains the same .

Well, bitcoin can't change in the sense that people may not want to do something and that may not change bitcoin too much but simple stuff could always change. The biggest example I could give to you right now would be the 21 million coins versus the segwit thing.

When we are talking about 21 million being the absolute last coin and there can't be 40 million of them for example, that is actually something that can't be changed at all, yet when we are talking about something like segwit because it helps everyone and allows people to send and receive a lot cheaper and transactions get a lot more with the same fee that is something that can be changed. That is what I want to make sure people understand when we are talking about bitcoin being able to change or not.

I also think so, in the beginning bitcoin was doubtful but now people are competing to own bitcoin because it is a quite attractive investment, in addition to a limited number of long-term goals of bitcoin as a payment, with a limited supply it will make the price rise every year.
some also use it for day trading.

I do have to agree with you demand is something that will be increasing for Bitcoin as the supply will always be limited while the interest of owning Bitcoin is continuing to grow however one of the biggest factors that can affect this growth is something that a lot of predictions left out and that's including Bitcoin's S2F model by PlanB. I'm talking about laws and countries that don't want them for their citizens. This is one of the biggest factors that can greatly affect Bitcoin that we don't have any control off. Countries like India or Russia that are unsure about their crypto industry can greatly affect our demand as well the adoption needed for Bitcoin's growth.

why not? you see all the examples you mentioned or anything else that i can think of are changes that won't give any significant benefits or in almost all cases they decrease the security or add more weaknesses to bitcoin. for example PoS is significantly worse than PoW but if it were the other way around meaning if it were significantly better then i am certain that bitcoin would have changed already or risk being obsolete.

P.S. that Satoshi statement has not been true for many years since bitcoin has changed a lot of things. for example the script evaluation (which is a consensus critical matter) has changed with at least a dozen forks some involving scripts are BIP-16, 17, 34, 65, 112, 113 and 141.

I'd like to think that too. However, if I'm being honest, that's sort of at odds with Bitcoin's very slow and methodical development culture. It's also at odds with these words from Satoshi:


Let's imagine proof-of-stake was actually solved, and reasonably secure. Do you think Bitcoin would switch to it? I don't.

The same goes for things like total supply and emission rate too. We don't know that a firmly limited supply is the optimal route in terms of long term mining security; it's experimental at this point. But either way, do I see Bitcoin hard forking to increase the 21 million cap? No.

i can see what you mean but it won't happen overnight. what you are talking about is a revolution in the blockchain technology and something like that would take a very long time to come to reality. and unfortunately so far we have not seen that many attempts in that direction. there were some good ideas in first couple of years but nowadays everything is copy pasting to maximize profitability.

keep in mind that bitcoin didn't happen overnight and Satoshi didn't really release bitcoin in one day. he was working on it for 3 years before he released it in 2009, and before that the idea was around for more than a decade (eg. hashcash which is a proof of work system was proposed in 1997).

for people to abandon bitcoin and move entirely to a new cryptocurrency that new one has to be significantly better while finding fantastic solutions to some issues that bitcoin struggles with, hence the need for a massive revolution in technology.
besides, bitcoin can also advance and change. it is not like the design is absolutely unchangeable. it is not significantly changed so far because there is nothing better to change to. which means even if a much better solution were found, bitcoin may be the one finding it and using it first!

Honestly I always expected that what needs to happen is figuring out something much better than crypto itself. I am not talking about defi, I am not talking about altcoins, I am not talking about a brand new blockchain or a new way to use blockchain, I am talking about something brand new that is much better and has no connection to bitcoin at all.

Remember just 10-12 years ago there was no bitcoin at all, it didn't exist and one day satoshi did it (whoever he is) and in the end we have it now and there are thousands of copies of it that tries to be a better and bigger version that failed. If you want bitcoin to be not going higher, you could have something totally better and at that point we would all switch to that and leave bitcoin that could stop the increase.

We really need something unexpected to happen. The price has dragged at this region for so long and finding difficulty in breaking the 12-12.5k region.

You are ignoring two crucial market dynamics.

First, the distinction between strong hands and weak hands. Accumulation phases like 2015-2016 and likely 2019-2020 are defined by weak hands (people selling for a loss or small gain out of fear) selling to strong hands (those who intend to hold long term, no matter what). That's actually why accumulation phases form. Strong hands buy up all the supply in the range, and when there is no supply left, the price gets marked up.

Second, the distinction between fear and greed, which is a related concept. In the early goings of a new bull market, the market is usually quite fearful, still reeling from a previous bear market or range trading dynamic. That means traders are skeptical of any bull market and are likely to sell quickly instead of holding for long term gains. That's the type of sentiment we saw in late 2015 and early 2016, and it's why 2016 was a slow grind upwards rather than a parabolic run like 2017. In a bubble, that sentiment changes dramatically. Fear gives way to greed, and everyone becomes scared to sell because of FOMO.

That's the difference between 2015 and 2017. In 2015, everyone was fearful and wanted to sell. In 2017, everyone was greedy and refused to sell. And that's how we went ~130x from low to high.

What is 130x from (the 2018) low? It's in the $400,000s.

Yes it surely adds up that many people are now putting interest in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency because of that sudden burst on the price but right now that burst is becoming just a little bit of pull back right now, Maybe we need another push just like what OP is saying, but investors and hodlers was all just waiting for a sudden change in the price again,

As you have said the most important aspect needed here are the people that are attracted with cryptocurrency platform and with this sudden change you can really see that there are initial buyings happening.

The main reason why it can't happen is the fact that we are talking about people who got in from anywhere at around 10k to under NOT to sell until it is 100k. You are aware that people do tend to sell even when it reaches above 12k and you are asking or at least expecting them to not sell when it reaches 20k? Or maybe 30k? Or how about 50k? noo, you expect them to sell at 100k?

There is not enough money to buy it to make it 100k but there is also not enough people who will hold and not sell until it reaches 100k neither, people will sell it is a no doubt, there is no chance humanity can suddenly become such a collective movement thing, people care only about their own individual profit and if you give them 2x profit they will take it, not wait around for 10x

Mind to explain what kind of Unexpected thing to happen?because as far as i know Bitcoin is doing good for the past year now since the last quarter of 2019 ,market is experiencing good movement(of course not part the March this year when the market suddenly fall the lowest )
But this is not literally needed now,what we wanted to have is a investment from another group of people that can bring the market Going Bull again.
yeah the capitalization must increase again,for Bitcoin dominance covering the market more than again.

https://coinmarketcap.com/

market is still in good shapre so better not worry more.

Why?

People tend to focus solely on the demand side, saying things like "it would require too much money to hold the price up" at six figure valuations. But price isn't determined solely by demand; supply also plays a crucial role.

What happens during bubbles is that supply dries up. The ask side completely disappears across all exchanges. So it takes very little money and volume to push prices exponentially higher. That's how bubbles are born.

Is that sustainable? Probably not, and that's why bubbles pop. But that doesn't mean we can't see six or even seven figure valuations first.

I keep thinking that thing also as mostly it happens in the past years. Dumps are still inevitable and sooner or later we'd likely it come for sure. Investors nowadays aren't like before, they are more watchful into the market and any changes will turn them into thinking negatively especially when drops started. It could be like that most of them are short-term holders, impatient people, and anytime they will sell their coins.

However, it seems that we are still in a good position, we are moving nearly at $12k, and might investors are taking their breath to hold their holdings that make the momentum keeps good.

Bitcoin can't repeat the halving cycle, are you aware that making it go from small levels to higher levels versus higher levels to even higher levels are totally different. If the price moves from 500 to 5k that is 10 times higher and I would understand that but that doesn't mean that it would go from 10k to 100k as well, those are very very different stuff, it is not the same. Just because it went certain amount higher doesn't mean that it could do the same thing.

However I agree that people should stop trading bitcoin only (well they can still trade) but also add that spending thing on top of the current situation, that way we could just buy and sell but also we could send and receive which it was created for and that would basically be great for bitcoin price as well.

Still difficult to accept we are about to explode above again.
I am a little bit afraid of another negative attack on Bitcoin, or any events that will affect Bitcoin, and it will cause another dumps.
What I noticed these days, a lot of panic sellers, even just a small negative news about Bitcoin, we can see some huge wick red candles.
What I am positive now is we are already above $10,000. We are already less than 50% before all-time-high again.
So if ever we will see an unexpected to happen, it's either a parabolic run again upto Bitcoin's all-time-high or a dump on below $10,000 again.

It is the preference of most people especially the newer ones when they buy bitcoin. They look at the value of it instead of the utility of it. There is no way to stop people holding bitcoin as we see it as a reliable investment and some that I have read online said that they're all good holding it until their retirement.

Breaking the norm of holding won't happen but it doesn't mean that bitcoin as a payment will be stopped. There's still usage for bitcoin the way it is made and these two uses of bitcoin will keep going regardless of the future price it will show.

If these happens there's a possibility of a new coming coin emerging as a new payment of choice because Bitcoin stopped being a payment of choice because people stopped using it and just prefer to HODL for future profit, this is not what it is intended to be use and not Nakamoto's vision.

Good observation! I had my Bollinger Bands hidden on my weekly chart and hadn't noticed the reaction to the upper band!

This is a pretty monumental spot and should be expected resistance. Here's a look at similar spots over the past couple years:



Notice the mid-term reversals around July 2019 and February 2020? I would say the next 10 days (2 weekly candle closes) are very important to watch and will be very informative regarding the mid-term trend. Time to pay attention.

Once that upper band is broken above with authority, it will likely trigger a move like Q2 2019. Just not sure if it's time yet.

The interest are really bringing things to the right direction, many people are acknowledging this venue
as a good alternative for investment.
With how people reacts it adds up more money to circulates placing bitcoin to a much higher valuations
we can expect for more.
It's not limited as the most important factors are investors trust and how they will keep doing things that
will able to attract more people inside.

It likely won't happen. The volatile nature of bitcoin is the big obstacle in order to implement on real world. It's as of now multiplied since I bought it but who knows maybe this one will do 50x this bull run or it could go to -50x. That's make me crazy!

It all depends on what you mean by "mass adoption". Did gold achieve mass adoption? Even in the most developed countries like the US only up to 12% of people own gold, and most of them just own some jewelry and not actual investment gold. Does that mean gold did not achieve mass adoption?

Even if just 5% of world's population owned bitcoin that would be an incredible rate of adoption for a technology this young. If 10% of world's population owned bitcoin that would be IMMENSE adoption. Bitcoin is a technology which use is the store of value. Mass adoption doesn't mean everyone owns bitcoin - only that people who actually have any value to store use bitcoin to store that value.

Bitcoin's price will always be volatile if there is no something that we can use with it. I mean, bitcoin need to be used because if we compare with gold, we can be used it as a jawelry, it something that makes gold will always be the right place to save money. But in bitcoin, when we only use it as an investment place I think the price movement will always be like that. Up for more than 100% in a few months and fall again in a few months as well and it will be like that. So, I agree that we need to use bitcoin as payment system at least its price movement will be like the currency.

An unexpected like another breach of security on one of the well-known exchange site? Bitcoin is reacting to the supply and demand that people are establishing an I think that right now many are overwhelm over what kind of asset Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could be and for traders and investors they are in love with its volatileness, and I think this sudden burst in price was because of the residual of the halving or bull run can hit another ATH.

I think I played this game in my head a few times over the last few years, and the last time I honestly thought something big enough had happened was the 2017 drama with big blockers and scalability with SW etc. That actually ended up being the catalyst for that incredible run, for whatever reason already theorized to death, but I honestly can't think of what unexpected event could come (and no, COVID never was specific as a threat to Bitcoin).

Miner capitulation? Not that I ever think that's a thing, but if will be, then not for another at least 2 more halvings, if not 3, so that's 12 years away.

The very expected is people will over do their speculation, like the 2nd post mentions everyone could own 1% and it'd be fairly reasonable especially for those who spend online with digital goods its a good relevant currency.   However we'll get people who put 100% or 200% and borrow money to speculate in BTC, that shouldnt happen but it does and its predictable and causes these pull backs.   Iam all for natural involvement and growth but also I accept some of the price is not proper advancement and will retract over various time frames.

Hoping that now after this pandemic more focus will be shifting to use of the digital currencies across the globe and this may give a big push to bitcoin as well. If this happen then we can see a huge surge happening in the demand and price will rise very quickly. Just a phase where things are still getting clear in some countries as it is neither legal nor illegal.

Most movements in Bitcoin are unexpected, fast and have to do with volatility, it is normal for it to happen that way because as it says in OP, adoption is increasing, according to an interesting article launched by Pompliano affirms that by 2029 the Bitcoin's capitalization will be greater than that of gold, and it may happen, bitcoin is increasingly named, in fact some already consider it a safe haven, especially in countries with high inflation.

the first thing that should happen is that people stop just doing Hodl and start using bitcoin to make payments, while people are focused on things like these:

Bitcoin Will Hit $340K if BTC Price Repeats 2016 Halving Cycle Pattern

most people will be buying with the objective of making big profits and they will not be thinking about using bitcoin as a means of payment and consequence Is we will see the big increase and then big fall because the whales are in charge and many people also like to surf the wave of whales

I think the unexpected is a hack, as long as nothing can change in blockchain I am sure nothing will change. If somehow someone figures out a way to hack bitcoin addresses and blockchain as a general, that would be horrible and it would destroy the value of bitcoin because dude would be able to get everyone's bitcoin whenever he wants to, since he can hack blockchain.

Now everyone says it is impossible and I would say it is impossible for now, technology is ever evolving and one day in the future it could be possible with some new technology that can brute force a blockchain wallet in two minutes because of this new technology. So unless something major as much as this one, I think nothing will change, bitcoin will keep being a very good appreciating product out there.

This is what needs to happen for Bitcoin to even grow in a much larger scale.
I have seen several businesses and merchants accepting Btc and other crypto as a mode of payment, but there were also those who removed the payment option.
I'm not completely against regulation, and I think it's good for Bitcoin adoption in general. Take Russia as an example, they have been so hard and strict against Bitcoin before, but I guess they have found out how Bitcoin could be a potential game changer for their economy, so they're now regulating cryptocurrency.

Yeah I think the regulators in the UK were trying to give companies more freedom before regulation comes in - since companies have to hold 100% of investor funds now and segregate them from their own and this might be a costly thing for new companies.

But as this grows it'll be less of a problem.

For mass adoption to happen, countries need to welcome it or at least have a regulations. So far there are countries that are either in the grey area, or totally outright banning it. So it really might take some time for BTC to change what it is right now. And even though we have seen Wall Streets and institutional money flowing in, it's not enough. Online merchants should accept it as mode of payment, people using it as form or money and other factors.

Yeah I don't think many expect much different. Even if the conditions have changed slightly I still think bitcoin looks like an attractive asset for people to own a fraction of.

We're far from any form of mass adoption and don't have the regulation in many countries yet (and some outright ban it) but I imagine this'll be coming in a few years...

Something unexpected needs to happen for $Bitcoin's price to stop doing what it's been doing for most of the past decade: appreciating. Demand and adoption metrics remain favorable vs. the $crypto asset's unique attribute of fixed supply.