Author

Topic: Something's got to give in the next few days (Read 4129 times)

legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 1040
A Great Time to Start Something!
6. let's say we all wake up tomorrow and nothing noteworthy has happened, no wars, storms, collapses...it's just a non eventful news day but the btc charts show the price has plummeted to $30 with a downward trend. How would you read that or react? Would something like a serious drop to less than $50 change your opinion on the overall worth and viability of bitcoin tech and as a currency?
These annoy me. "What if something that can't possibly happen happens?". Everything has a reason.

So...today it shot to $500.

Why?

And the reason is?

 Grin

And the reason is?
Bitcoin growth is booming all over the world, and there has been a flood of good news lately.
The market was way overdue to see some enthusiastic buying.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 101
Be Here Now
6. let's say we all wake up tomorrow and nothing noteworthy has happened, no wars, storms, collapses...it's just a non eventful news day but the btc charts show the price has plummeted to $30 with a downward trend. How would you read that or react? Would something like a serious drop to less than $50 change your opinion on the overall worth and viability of bitcoin tech and as a currency?
These annoy me. "What if something that can't possibly happen happens?". Everything has a reason.

So...today it shot to $500.


Annnnd back down to 485.

Why?

What's the reason?

 Grin
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 1040
A Great Time to Start Something!
What would be the price it reaches when you all unanimously agree that the trend is upwards and now's the time?

Above $540 to $600 most people will agree the medium-term trend is clearly back up, except for those who prefer to buy above the all-time high.
$3,400 or a little higher is the target for the next Big Rally, but (even when that high) many people will be suggesting you should buy more before we hit $5,000 and $10,000.  Smiley
Greed really takes over once people "(almost) unanimously agree that the trend is upwards and now's the time"
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
Something just gave.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
483.37
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 101
Be Here Now
What would be the price it reaches when you all unanimously agree that the trend is upwards and now's the time?
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
Looks like $460 is the new normal. At least for a while.

This all happened just after I sold some coins at $440 yesterday morning. Doh!
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
Maybe the price will finally stabilize at this level.

Wink It wouldn't be THAT BAD
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
hm
This is pretty insane, looks like nobody wants to rock the boat and go up or down on the price. Who will flinch in the next 4 days?



In what universe are these lines not totally arbitrarily? But: Is there a critical mass of traders who takes these lines seriously? (self-fullfilling prophecy) -> I don't think so...
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
Over $460...the upper line has been breached.

I also notice the sells going out a long way has gone down by about a million dollars.

So, Malin, hope you have some bitcoins right now, because the rocket is boarding.


what me?

y, i'm all in btc right now, and I'm procrastinating for more than a week make deposit to buy more.I think we won't see sub 440's for a long time
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 1040
A Great Time to Start Something!
Over $460...the upper line has been breached.

I also notice the sells going out a long way has gone down by about a million dollars.

Something had to give, it's about time.  Smiley
Of course, the market backed off and now has to make everyone a bit uncertain, before the next shot upwards. If things go well we could be back near $500 in a few days.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 255
Over $460...the upper line has been breached.

I also notice the sells going out a long way has gone down by about a million dollars.

So, Malin, hope you have some bitcoins right now, because the rocket is boarding.
legendary
Activity: 3598
Merit: 2386
Viva Ut Vivas
Over $460...the upper line has been breached.

I also notice the sells going out a long way has gone down by about a million dollars.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
Yeah, historical price volatility keeps dropping.  http://cryptocoinstats.com/volatilitytracker.php

Volatility needs to pick up soon, since we could enjoy some excitement in the markets. I understand stability is occasionally good, but a lot of people are drawn to BTC specifically because of the opportunities that come with extreme risk. BTC is still too young to be stable, let's get the wild summer started.  Smiley

It will, stability is just the calm before the storm.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
1. Answer
A wall is a proportionally big amount of BTC in the orderbook of an exchange. If someone has a 1000BTC sell wall @ $441 someone will have to buy $441000 worth of BTC for the price to go up. Visa versa for buy wall which stops the price going lower. Combined a whale can shake out a profit (or loss Smiley).

5. Answer
Yes you can day trade with any amount as long as it is higher than the minimum trade for an exchange. Since most exchanges use percentage fees the absolute value is irrelevant.
You should always take fees into account. For example a 0.2% buy fee and 0.3% sell fee will make you break even on a 0.5% increase in value, it is wise to aim for at least 1%. At $441 you need bitcoin to increase $4.41.
You should never risk more than 2% of your account. Read about money management, stoploss, taking profit, taking losses, etc.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
Things may look like they are on a downtrend, but a lot can happen. Remember January to April 2013? Things looked volatile and then one event triggered a rush. Just a panic event could get the ball rolling with a huge uptick in price.
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 1040
A Great Time to Start Something!
just sit and buy for 445 and sell for 450, the rollecoaster is over for now. When things change, you'll have more money to win or to lose

Repeated small profits can add up; I used to trade that way more often:
When it makes a strong move you will get burned, either owning too much or having sold way too much at ~$450.
For "pennies" it's not worth the effort and for big amounts of money it's hard to control the risk.
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
just sit and buy for 445 and sell for 450, the rollecoaster is over for now. When things change, you'll have more money to win or to lose
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 1040
A Great Time to Start Something!
Yeah, historical price volatility keeps dropping.  http://cryptocoinstats.com/volatilitytracker.php

Volatility needs to pick up soon, since we could enjoy some excitement in the markets. I understand stability is occasionally good, but a lot of people are drawn to BTC specifically because of the opportunities that come with extreme risk. BTC is still too young to be stable, let's get the wild summer started.  Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1278
You said nothing noteworthy happened. It's right there in the quote. If nothing noteworthy happens, the price is not going to dramatically drop.

I have a better question. What do the invisible pink unicorns want and where is their teapot?
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 101
Be Here Now
6. let's say we all wake up tomorrow and nothing noteworthy has happened, no wars, storms, collapses...it's just a non eventful news day but the btc charts show the price has plummeted to $30 with a downward trend. How would you read that or react? Would something like a serious drop to less than $50 change your opinion on the overall worth and viability of bitcoin tech and as a currency?
These annoy me. "What if something that can't possibly happen happens?". Everything has a reason.

And I asked what might that reason be and how you would react to it, what you would attribute it to in that sort of condition. It's not a fantastical question. I'm dead serious. We see jack squat going on for what, a month or so now in spite of good and bad news. So this market is not brainfeeding off the daily news from China. Therefore, if it's not a news thing and everything is relatively normal to what factors would you attribute a sudden drop? I was looking for a drop but the question applies equally to a sudden upswing, though less people would give a shit if it goes up...everyone would be asking WHAT HAPPENED if it dropped to 50 bucks or less.

And this is the speculation forum. So, if you're annoyed speculating, you're in the wrong place. Otherwise, speculate! Thanks Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1278
6. let's say we all wake up tomorrow and nothing noteworthy has happened, no wars, storms, collapses...it's just a non eventful news day but the btc charts show the price has plummeted to $30 with a downward trend. How would you read that or react? Would something like a serious drop to less than $50 change your opinion on the overall worth and viability of bitcoin tech and as a currency?
These annoy me. "What if something that can't possibly happen happens?". Everything has a reason.
legendary
Activity: 4242
Merit: 5039
You're never too old to think young.
Religious fanatics are hilarious!  Cheesy

Indeed. Especially those who follow the zany doctrines of religious leaders like Jimmy Jones, Ralph Nelson Elliott or Sun Myung Moon.

Totally hilarious.  Grin
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
This summer will be quiet.. but in the fall the action will begin Wink
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 101
Be Here Now
Questions

1. What's a wall and where is it? (Or, I guess how do you know what/where it is looking at any chart?)
2. I looked at bitcoinwisdom chart and see a white line downward and a tan line upward that theoretically will converge at some point. How do you read that and what do those lines/colors represent?
3. Re above, on the convergence point - is this what you mean also when you refer to the lines crossing? Is it based on the time frames from before, like reading by the months you calculate a timeframe for when they will cross and is why people think mid to late summer is when things get active either direction?
4. What happens if the lines don't intersect anytime soon and it just kind of flatlines?
5. Is it possible to just buy/sell (day trading wise) with 1 or 2 btc at a time or is day trading done with way way more funds as a rule?

Finally, the fun one:

6. let's say we all wake up tomorrow and nothing noteworthy has happened, no wars, storms, collapses...it's just a non eventful news day but the btc charts show the price has plummeted to $30 with a downward trend. How would you read that or react? Would something like a serious drop to less than $50 change your opinion on the overall worth and viability of bitcoin tech and as a currency?

Thanks  Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1010
Borsche

Yes you are correct our definition of whale is different.

Whale Definition:
In sales terminology, a whale is a prospect at least 10 times larger than your average sale.

Since the average sale in the current market is <1 BTC I find someone putting up a 200+ BTC wall a whale.

Then mostly everybody here is a whale, nice Smiley But why you are using sales terminology, one thing is hunting a contract 10 times your average one, the other thing is trading commodity where 0.1 btc bots dominate the market. Any noticeable market moves at these price levels can be achieved starting from 2-3k BTC, anything below that is noise - call it whale noise if you like, does not change a fact that it is irrelevant
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
Looking at BTC-e there are a few big buy/sell walls around this price.
Assuming these are real walls some whales are trying to force bitcoin into a narrow price band to make money on small fluctuations.

The sell wall is BTC238 @ $441 and the buy wall is BTC62 @ $439.3

In my opinion it will have to break in the oncoming days. Since I believe bitcoin wants to go up it will take some days to eat away those BTC238.

Really? Now your usual range trading with 100k is a whale wall somehow? That's not even a shark, just somebody making themselves some lunch money.

I don't really fully understand your comment.


I understood that you are implying that some whale is manipulating the price into a narrow band with a 200 btc order Smiley Unless our definition of whale differs, this is just some guy trying to earn hundred dollars on what little volatility there is left. And of course, any real move by a whale whale would be in thousands of coins at once, instantly eating through this little "walls" on all exchanges.

Yes you are correct our definition of whale is different.

Whale Definition:
In sales terminology, a whale is a prospect at least 10 times larger than your average sale.

Since the average sale in the current market is <1 BTC I find someone putting up a 200+ BTC wall a whale.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 254
...
Is it unethical to sell something that doesnt exist to someone who believes it exists? ...

Not at all.  Done on the securities forum all the time.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1010
Borsche
Looking at BTC-e there are a few big buy/sell walls around this price.
Assuming these are real walls some whales are trying to force bitcoin into a narrow price band to make money on small fluctuations.

The sell wall is BTC238 @ $441 and the buy wall is BTC62 @ $439.3

In my opinion it will have to break in the oncoming days. Since I believe bitcoin wants to go up it will take some days to eat away those BTC238.

Really? Now your usual range trading with 100k is a whale wall somehow? That's not even a shark, just somebody making themselves some lunch money.

I don't really fully understand your comment.


I understood that you are implying that some whale is manipulating the price into a narrow band with a 200 btc order Smiley Unless our definition of whale differs, this is just some guy trying to earn hundred dollars on what little volatility there is left. And of course, any real move by a whale whale would be in thousands of coins at once, instantly eating through this little "walls" on all exchanges.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
The quicker bitcoin gets to a million dollars per, the better everyone will be   Grin

True but I will be living in a nice house well before that day Cool
sr. member
Activity: 249
Merit: 250
The quicker bitcoin gets to a million dollars per, the better everyone will be   Grin
full member
Activity: 228
Merit: 100
Yeah, historical price volatility keeps dropping.  http://cryptocoinstats.com/volatilitytracker.php
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
walls on btc-e can be deceptive because they hide the orderbook top and down of the price.

True and sometimes walls have the tendency to vanish since they don't actually want to sell/buy :-)
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
Looking at BTC-e there are a few big buy/sell walls around this price.
Assuming these are real walls some whales are trying to force bitcoin into a narrow price band to make money on small fluctuations.

The sell wall is BTC238 @ $441 and the buy wall is BTC62 @ $439.3

In my opinion it will have to break in the oncoming days. Since I believe bitcoin wants to go up it will take some days to eat away those BTC238.

Really? Now your usual range trading with 100k is a whale wall somehow? That's not even a shark, just somebody making themselves some lunch money.

I don't really fully understand your comment.

Yes whales usually are bigger but with the current volume levels 238 BTC (100k) is a significant amount of money in my opinion.
Yes trading in such a small band will only earn you lunch money. But many little profits can amount to big profits.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
walls on btc-e can be deceptive because they hide the orderbook top and down of the price.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1010
Borsche
Looking at BTC-e there are a few big buy/sell walls around this price.
Assuming these are real walls some whales are trying to force bitcoin into a narrow price band to make money on small fluctuations.

The sell wall is BTC238 @ $441 and the buy wall is BTC62 @ $439.3

In my opinion it will have to break in the oncoming days. Since I believe bitcoin wants to go up it will take some days to eat away those BTC238.

Really? Now your usual range trading with 100k is a whale wall somehow? That's not even a shark, just somebody making themselves some lunch money.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
Looking at BTC-e there are a few big buy/sell walls around this price.
Assuming these are real walls some whales are trying to force bitcoin into a narrow price band to make money on small fluctuations.

The sell wall is BTC238 @ $441 and the buy wall is BTC62 @ $439.3

In my opinion it will have to break in the oncoming days. Since I believe bitcoin wants to go up it will take some days to eat away those BTC238.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
No-one is gonna shift in the next few days but perhaps in the coming weeks we'll see some movement. The stability has been kinda nice though.

Actually looking back at the previous trends, every time the price has stabilized it was immediatly followed by a large spike in price.

newbie
Activity: 57
Merit: 0
Uh-oh! Price fluctuations are reaching a singularity! Based on the quantum economic theory, within days we will see prices ranging from $0.01 to $1,000,000,000.... EVERY SECOND!
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500
Those who believe TA is bogus probably believe fundamentals determine price. But how can one believe that fundamentals determine price and yet price does not reflect fundamentals? TA is a legit perspective of fundamentals. Furthermore price/time alongside simple laws of economics is in fact a wave system that can be described by science.
+1
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
HODL OR DIE
Those who believe TA is bogus probably believe fundamentals determine price. But how can one believe that fundamentals determine price and yet price does not reflect fundamentals? TA is a legit perspective of fundamentals. Furthermore price/time alongside simple laws of economics is in fact a wave system that can be described by science.

TA is not "bogus", but it is commonly over-rated by users, imo. The most useful signals are sometimes the ones that are "false", since you can get good traders caught by surprise and a huge move in the other direction.

Exactly. Very easy to draw lines on a chart that seem to work until they don't. If you can get the majority of market players to believe in a TA setup then you do the opposite.
sr. member
Activity: 359
Merit: 250
No-one is gonna shift in the next few days but perhaps in the coming weeks we'll see some movement. The stability has been kinda nice though.
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 1040
A Great Time to Start Something!
Those who believe TA is bogus probably believe fundamentals determine price. But how can one believe that fundamentals determine price and yet price does not reflect fundamentals? TA is a legit perspective of fundamentals. Furthermore price/time alongside simple laws of economics is in fact a wave system that can be described by science.

TA is not "bogus", but it is commonly over-rated by users, imo. The most useful signals are sometimes the ones that are "false", since you can get good traders caught by surprise and a huge move in the other direction.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
Those who believe TA is bogus probably believe fundamentals determine price. But how can one believe that fundamentals determine price and yet price does not reflect fundamentals? TA is a legit perspective of fundamentals. Furthermore price/time alongside simple laws of economics is in fact a wave system that can be described by science.
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 1040
A Great Time to Start Something!
This is pretty insane, looks like nobody wants to rock the boat and go up or down on the price. Who will flinch in the next 4 days?



There is an impressive amount of good news, so the strong fundamentals will make the difference.
I predict a false break out, in both directions, followed by another slow rally. Around ~$550 Bears will start to get nervous and we might have a really fun summer.  Smiley
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
Stand on the shoulders of giants
Sell my behaviour? how can this even work?

Religious fanatics are hilarious!  Cheesy

if you believe in technical analysis .. why not believe in God too ?

ps-> yep you're your behaviour ..but what you do with it belongs to you until your behaviour interact to the social space you're into... if you have a spare time take a look on some psychology theory 101 lecture thought  ... there is a open course I'd recommend ... it's free it's on youtube too ..

http://oyc.yale.edu/psychology/psyc-110

Wink

Because TA is more like science than religion. You use known FACTS (past data) to try to make hypotheses about future direction. There are no facts (or science for that matter) in religion.

there are facts ..but are facts about social relationships, religion generally starts same as all philosophy and science starts with .. by questioning, although often deep and unsolved questions like, who am I ? where do I came from, where I going to  and what is consciousness anyway ?... so mankind had tried to answer to these questions by looking for something above then, looking at the sky and searching for patterns from greek gods to conceptions like determinism dualism etc ... btw talking about determinism do you know that the big bang theory was made by a priest called Georges Lemaitre ? ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georges_Lema%C3%AEtre )  
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
HODL OR DIE
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
Sell my behaviour? how can this even work?

Religious fanatics are hilarious!  Cheesy

if you believe in technical analysis .. why not believe in God too ?

ps-> yep you're your behaviour ..but what you do with it belongs to you until your behaviour interact to the social space you're into... if you have a spare time take a look on some psychology theory 101 lecture thought  ... there is a open course I'd recommend ... it's free it's on youtube too ..

http://oyc.yale.edu/psychology/psyc-110

Wink

Because TA is more like science than religion. You use known FACTS (past data) to try to make hypotheses about future direction. There are no facts (or science for that matter) in religion.

There are. Bible, Coran.....all these books are scientific facts, e.q. my Cook book mentions Flying  spaghetti space monster with meatballs, therefore its existence is proven to be true.
legendary
Activity: 2408
Merit: 1009
Legen -wait for it- dary
Sell my behaviour? how can this even work?

Religious fanatics are hilarious!  Cheesy

if you believe in technical analysis .. why not believe in God too ?

ps-> yep you're your behaviour ..but what you do with it belongs to you until your behaviour interact to the social space you're into... if you have a spare time take a look on some psychology theory 101 lecture thought  ... there is a open course I'd recommend ... it's free it's on youtube too ..

http://oyc.yale.edu/psychology/psyc-110

Wink

Because TA is more like science than religion. You use known FACTS (past data) to try to make hypotheses about future direction. There are no facts (or science for that matter) in religion.
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
We stay at 450 by June 19  Cheesy Highly possible  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
no not yet


According to my charts we're in bullish territory right now

If we reach 500 by may 24th it's very bullish
if we reach 400 by may 25th it's very bearish and it will need to retest 330
if we stay at 450 by june 19 it turns bearish again

So i'm cautiously calling the start of the bull run.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
Stand on the shoulders of giants
Sell my behaviour? how can this even work?

Religious fanatics are hilarious!  Cheesy

if you believe in technical analysis .. why not believe in God too ?

ps-> yep you're your behaviour ..but what you do with it belongs to you until your behaviour interact to the social space you're into... if you have a spare time take a look on some psychology theory 101 lecture thought  ... there is a open course I'd recommend ... it's free it's on youtube too ..

http://oyc.yale.edu/psychology/psyc-110

Wink
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1094
My guess is that Chinese bagholders will flinch, pushed by some bad news from the PBoC and Chinese exchanges.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
Sell my behaviour? how can this even work?

Religious fanatics are hilarious!  Cheesy
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
Stand on the shoulders of giants
Well........my neighbors sold their house, car, clothes and organs so they could buy BTC....totally not.

I wondering if somebody already sold his soul .. Grin



I would gladly do that. Since im atheist, i can only profit from such trade.

atheist does not believe in God but it's does not means that ethics, bad things, good things, etc does not exists ... and in the end of the day that's what religions are all about .. social rules ... religions just have a too much metaphorical lingo ...

Is it unethical to sell something that doesnt exist to someone who believes it exists? if yes, im unethical bad person.

ok, radical behaviourist ... you can exchange the word "soul" by the word "behaviour"
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
Well........my neighbors sold their house, car, clothes and organs so they could buy BTC....totally not.

I wondering if somebody already sold his soul .. Grin



I would gladly do that. Since im atheist, i can only profit from such trade.

atheist does not believe in God but it's does not means that ethics, bad things, good things, etc does not exists ... and in the end of the day that's what religions are all about .. social rules ... religions just have a too much metaphorical lingo ...

Is it unethical to sell something that doesnt exist to someone who believes it exists? if yes, im unethical bad person.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
Stand on the shoulders of giants
Well........my neighbors sold their house, car, clothes and organs so they could buy BTC....totally not.

I wondering if somebody already sold his soul .. Grin



I would gladly do that. Since im atheist, i can only profit from such trade.

atheist does not believe in God but it's does not means that ethics, bad things, good things, etc does not exists ... and in the end of the day that's what religions are all about .. social rules ... religions just have a too much metaphorical lingo ...
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
Well........my neighbors sold their house, car, clothes and organs so they could buy BTC....totally not.

I wondering if somebody already sold his soul .. Grin



I would gladly do that. Since im atheist, i can only profit from such trade.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
no not yet
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
Stand on the shoulders of giants
Well........my neighbors sold their house, car, clothes and organs so they could buy BTC....totally not.

I wondering if somebody already sold his soul .. Grin




btw .. on BF talks ... reminds me

I know who I am"/Lucifer scene -Angel Heart
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3L83UPhQJs0
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
Well........my neighbors sold their house, car, clothes and organs so they could buy BTC....totally not.
legendary
Activity: 3598
Merit: 2386
Viva Ut Vivas
This is pretty insane, looks like nobody wants to rock the boat and go up or down on the price. Who will flinch in the next 4 days?

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