Spazzdla's TA, Jan18th ish shit's going down

exstasie

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Quote from: BrewMaster on January 13, 2018, 12:12:42 AM

if anything can cause a big drop followed by a long bear market like 2013, then it is the high fees that bitcoin currently has. which is causing bitcoin to lose market dominance.

I'm not so sure about that. Can you point to any historical correlation between fee increase and price decline? On the contrary, fees rose all throughout 2017 and......so did the price. Tongue

If high fees are causing Bitcoin to lose dominance, I suppose Lightning may grab that dominance back?

Quote from: BrewMaster on January 13, 2018, 12:12:42 AM

people always focus on market cap as dominance which is absolutely useless. but the real market dominance of bitcoin has always been the merchant adoption of bitcoin as a currency which helped with the more adoption and the rise so far. in fact the big rise of 2017 was initiated by Japan adopting bitcoin as a currency.

"Merchant adoption" is so 2014. What has always mattered is user adoption. Bitcoin's value is based on it's network, not the number of merchants that accept it and immediately dump it for fiat.

Quote from: BrewMaster on January 13, 2018, 12:12:42 AM

with high fees bitcoin is losing (and will continue losing) merchants and with it market dominance. and the damage may not even be only to bitcoin but to the whole market. imagine merchants accepting an altcoin and that altcoin fails too. either a simple high fees like bitcoin or worse a bug in it which leads to millions lost. (both happened already with ETH for example).

No one has really solved the linear scaling problem yet. Ethereum will likely implement sharding and will have the Raiden Network. Bitcoin will have sidechains and Lightning. Other solutions haven't been tested at scale or require centralization. IOTA's tangle comes to mind.

We have to face the fact that all this speculation outpaced the actual utility of these blockchains.

BrewMaster

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There is trouble abrewing

Quote from: cellard on January 12, 2018, 11:41:53 AM

Quote from: spazzdla on January 11, 2018, 01:43:08 PM

Quote from: Fippy on January 11, 2018, 01:54:27 AM

Quote from: Gab0 on January 10, 2018, 09:18:43 PM

Any reason, outside the technical analysis, to choose that date?

Yes, he does not even know how the market works, and no, the price is not going to crash so do not worry about that. And the recent dip was just because of the huge fud and manipulation, they wanted to enter the market at a -10%, that is why it dropped. Now it is going up again

After watching the price go from $70 to $1200 to $200, you have no idea how bad it can get. The idea the price cannot crash is a joke.

It makes no sense to compare the 2013 crash (as well as the 2013 pump before the crash) with the current circumstances.

for a 90% correction, bitcoin would need to suffer from some serious problems at the protocol level. Forget about governments banning it and so on, that wouldn't cut it at all, it wouldn't be enough to cause such damage. I don't get why there's people in here waiting for another MtGox, it just wouldn't happen. The MtGox situation was unique, we are talking about how the entire market depending on a single centralized exchange that failed, this can never happen again.

if anything can cause a big drop followed by a long bear market like 2013, then it is the high fees that bitcoin currently has. which is causing bitcoin to lose market dominance.

people always focus on market cap as dominance which is absolutely useless. but the real market dominance of bitcoin has always been the merchant adoption of bitcoin as a currency which helped with the more adoption and the rise so far. in fact the big rise of 2017 was initiated by Japan adopting bitcoin as a currency.

with high fees bitcoin is losing (and will continue losing) merchants and with it market dominance. and the damage may not even be only to bitcoin but to the whole market. imagine merchants accepting an altcoin and that altcoin fails too. either a simple high fees like bitcoin or worse a bug in it which leads to millions lost. (both happened already with ETH for example).

minersday

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Quote from: Bitcoinaire on January 11, 2018, 01:35:54 PM

Time will tell shortly, but I happen to believe we're in a nice consolidation phase and will be ramping up to new highs.

Yes, in fact, a lot of people said that the price was going to be pumping on Jan 15 - 16 because of the renew of the future contracts of the CBOE and CME.

Maybe this is right, and i forgot it, but there is new money coming to Wall's street, maybe this will pump the price a little if they start pumping it again.

There are a lot of things to think about, maybe the price will keep going up for a while since there isn't much movement on the price at the moment, there is more attention on the altcoins right now.

babygun

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We will need to see if you are right, but what does this graph proofs? Bitcoin price is very volatile and can not easily be predicted...

cellard

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Quote from: spazzdla on January 11, 2018, 01:43:08 PM

Quote from: Fippy on January 11, 2018, 01:54:27 AM

Quote from: Gab0 on January 10, 2018, 09:18:43 PM

Any reason, outside the technical analysis, to choose that date?

Yes, he does not even know how the market works, and no, the price is not going to crash so do not worry about that. And the recent dip was just because of the huge fud and manipulation, they wanted to enter the market at a -10%, that is why it dropped. Now it is going up again

After watching the price go from $70 to $1200 to $200, you have no idea how bad it can get. The idea the price cannot crash is a joke.

It makes no sense to compare the 2013 crash (as well as the 2013 pump before the crash) with the current circumstances.

for a 90% correction, bitcoin would need to suffer from some serious problems at the protocol level. Forget about governments banning it and so on, that wouldn't cut it at all, it wouldn't be enough to cause such damage. I don't get why there's people in here waiting for another MtGox, it just wouldn't happen. The MtGox situation was unique, we are talking about how the entire market depending on a single centralized exchange that failed, this can never happen again.

spazzdla

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Quote from: Fippy on January 11, 2018, 01:54:27 AM

Quote from: Gab0 on January 10, 2018, 09:18:43 PM

Any reason, outside the technical analysis, to choose that date?

Yes, he does not even know how the market works, and no, the price is not going to crash so do not worry about that. And the recent dip was just because of the huge fud and manipulation, they wanted to enter the market at a -10%, that is why it dropped. Now it is going up again

After watching the price go from $70 to $1200 to $200, you have no idea how bad it can get. The idea the price cannot crash is a joke.

spazzdla

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Merit: 1000

Quote from: cellard on January 11, 2018, 01:30:44 PM

I was monitoring this triangle myself. Im not sure if we can call it an ascending triangle or we'll have to deal with a symmetrical triangle... I think the angle is rather ascending.. so we are dealing with a near 50/50, it could go both ways, we are going to find out before January 21th-ish in any case.

As we get close the 21th, it will take less volume for it to break the support lines either up and down. If big bullish news happen we'll see it going up as it will quickly break the ceiling, any bad news will make it go down, if nothing happens.. the market will naturally choose.

I am seeing more of a symmetrical triangle as well. A little nerve racking. I would like to think the bull run will continue.

Bitcoinaire

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Time will tell shortly, but I happen to believe we're in a nice consolidation phase and will be ramping up to new highs.

cellard

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I was monitoring this triangle myself. Im not sure if we can call it an ascending triangle or we'll have to deal with a symmetrical triangle... I think the angle is rather ascending.. so we are dealing with a near 50/50, it could go both ways, we are going to find out before January 21th-ish in any case.

As we get close the 21th, it will take less volume for it to break the support lines either up and down. If big bullish news happen we'll see it going up as it will quickly break the ceiling, any bad news will make it go down, if nothing happens.. the market will naturally choose.

Fippy

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UNCLOAK™ - Cyber Threat Detection Powered by EOS™

Quote from: Gab0 on January 10, 2018, 09:18:43 PM

Any reason, outside the technical analysis, to choose that date?

Yes, he does not even know how the market works, and no, the price is not going to crash so do not worry about that. And the recent dip was just because of the huge fud and manipulation, they wanted to enter the market at a -10%, that is why it dropped. Now it is going up again

davis196

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What is that red arrow pointing at?Perhaps the future bitcoin price,which isn`t on this chart. Grin

Even if the bitcoin price crashes under 10000 USD,i will continue to HODL my bitcoins and wait for the summer.
We all need to calm down.A much lower btc price will be good for new investors,who want to buy cheap btc and i think that a lower price will lead to reduced FUD about btc in all the media.

MNDan

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Oh nos - those two lines are definitely intersecting!

Gab0

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Any reason, outside the technical analysis, to choose that date?

spazzdla

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Topic: Spazzdla's TA, Jan18th ish shit's going down (Read 253 times)