Topic: Speculate About the years 2013-2016 (Read 6007 times)

I had to change the calculation slightly because of the $9.74 low on 26th Oct 2012.  The price went through my predicted line.  This pushed the $100 prediction out by around 2 months.  If the price falls through the bottom again, I will concede that this model probably doesn't work 

But I was quite happy with the current rally prediction, on the 7th Jan 2013 the price was only 13c away from falling through my predicted line again.  Then all of a sudden boom lol.  The price is now $7.94 away.

You've simply made logic your god, and your hardware has an error rate higher than a computer.  You should obviously let a computer make decisions for you.

Maybe this chart is due for an update? How did your model do?

Here is a 2012 zoomed in view up to the 15th of September.  Probably only need to view an updated one once every few months.  As you can see it gives a price expectation of ~$14 for the end of the year.  Who knows though, could be $25, could be <$10   

Religion dissapears after war?
During war and system changes people start believing and do not quit...
Why should religions dissapear after war?

Ps: i believe in logic and not god

Someone should update the chart in this thread every week or so (to see how we are doing vs. growth projections).

drugs wear off

Mageant finds self back in reality shithole

Global technofascist regime reaches limits of resource utilization, loses control of marginal regions

Open source mesh networks continue to develop enabling coordinated resistance against global elite

Millions die; war, famine, radiological release



profit?

All that would take about 20 to 50 years

Briefcases are brout back by the hipsters and The last laundromat is closed. As for bitcoin; it's hoarded by the government by scamming people into investing into their stocks and schemes.

Yes. 

They legalize drugs?

End of 2012: Goverments admit the UFO coverup and that extraterrestials are real.

2013-2016: Everything changes
World consciousness changes from competition to cooperation.
Governments become transparent and then slowly fade away into oblivion.
The financial system becomes beneficial to all. Bitcoin becomes one of many widely used alternative currencies.
Wars end.
Religions disappear.
Free energy technologies appear ending poverty and environmental pollution.
New healing technologies appear giving health to everyone.
People start developing paranormal powers.
Humanity starts exploring Space.

Yes, of course. I was posting tongue-in-cheek. People will certainly learn that Bitcoin needs a different kind of security than the traditional western financial model.

My serious prediction is that there will be a very unstable phase after Bitcoin goes mainstream when many imitators will arise, created by governments and large corporations. I'm not sure how much Bitcoin will suffer during this phase, but I expect it will emerge stronger.

With time comes experience, so security awareness will rise, not lower.

I have no precise price predictions, but I predict that the Bitcoin economy will continue to bootstrap off these areas:

1. International transfers

Extremely low fee and rapid international transfers in a large number of countries (brought about by competitive exchanges/dealers in each respective country). 

2. Online gambling/gaming

Bitcoin makes for an unbeatable 'poker chip'. Also acts as a great game token for MMORPGs and other games that will allow players to earn Bitcoins in the game.

3. Underground markets

Silk Road will continue to grow until it is shut down (if it is shut down). In any event, a number of copy cat sites running on TOR will surely pop up (the software to start one's own Silk Road type site will be open source). Over the counter deals for black market transactions will probably also take place using Bitcoin.

4. Online revenue sharing for advertising/crowdsourcing

Bitcoin is awesome for sharing revenue from advertising or crowdsourced online enterprises. Imagine a YouTube type business model without any fiat currency restrictions on revenue sharing.

5. Wealth storage

Wealthy individuals who are looking for an alternative to gold will start putting money into Bitcoin for the same reasons they put it into gold. As the volatility of Bitcoin goes down (and liquidity goes up) due to an increase in activity from the first 4 use cases above, more wealth will move into Bitcoin as a means of wealth storage.

From the first 4, we might see a market cap of $500 million by 2016 (an extremely rough estimate). As the volatility of Bitcoin decreases, a lot more money will move from use case 5, sending the market cap towards $1 billion beyond that. After all this, Bitcoin will leave the bootstrapping phase and the mainstream financial/banking interests will have to do something about it. Expect a significant amount of chaos all along the way. Panic buying and panic selling will continue to occur as Bitcoin related news comes in.

Excellent work.
Thanks

I'm just using Mt.Gox weighted average price data from here: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD


 

Exactly how are you weighting the average price?

Absolutly chaz :-) You rock.

Can I see this on the log scale charts too.

I'm no economist lol, I'm just trying to see how fast bitcoin is growing and what we can realistically expect for the future.  I've based the data on known low prices.  Current growth rate is around .46% per day, with a growth decay of .024% per day.  This is slightly different to the data used on my original graph.

So here is what that data looks like on a few graphs:

Bitcoin is priced higher than its use for trade would suggest because a lot of people have disposable income they can afford to divert towards speculation.
In times of severe economic stress less of those people will exist; many people will be forced to cash out their Bitcoin holdings to pay bills and a lot more people won't be able to buy and hold Bitcoins even if they want to because they are living paycheck to paycheck.

In that case the exchange rate of Bitcoin (and gold) corrects downward.

If you want to protect the exchange rate of your bitcoins do whatever you can to encourage its adoption by businesses. Get trade flowing between people who would otherwise be unable to transact.

The currency of many countries will start to default, US included.
Banks offer a "Global currency" deal that no one can refuse.
The global currency is introduced and soon after a global government. everyone's paper money / politicians  are the  same.
The Bank has successfully taken over the world.
The government start issuing new laws and basic human rights start to get squashed.
The people in some parts of the world want to separate from this new Global Government.
These people are quickly "taken care of"
Everyone on the planet now fears authority, and start to conform to the way they want us to live.
Life is easy so long as you obey.

A really big asteroid hits the planet and everyone dies in a matter of minutes.


Cool story eh?  

So your saying the Aztec calendar is not true, crap I guess this bunker I am in was a waste.   
Yes I want to believe but without something more then a line it is just art, I would like to believe in unicorns and its possible because of horses and Narwals.  They may not be real but see I presented something that could make them real and I could even make a picture happen with more pictures supporting the first picture.  That is what I would like and yes you are right.

Nice chart, now if you could add something to back up the line I would love it more.  Not to beat you up but I hate when people make charts and then their is nothing to explain why the chart is doing what it is doing.  You must be an economist but finance people deal with facts and numbers and not graphs and theories.  They may bend the numbers or fake the numbers but at least you can see how they got there where as economist hid behind "all things being equal".  Hell that one statement alone allowed me to ace my econ classes with allot of words in front of it, easy.

As I tell all economist, love the idea but show me the facts and please prove me wrong because otherwise this is a fun line to look at on graph paper.

Here is my Bitcoin 2016 prediction, give or take a few bubbles 

I am an optimist.

• The Open Source Model is used by 10-38% of businesses contributing the majority of the GDP.
• 5% of households now have decentralized internet access.
• At least 3 counties have exited the European Union and have created their Money system backed by real assets
• Sovereign groups are forming the first naive implementation of globally decentralized republics
• Small towns in the USA are using their own demurrage based local currencies, tolerated by the regional governments

I don't rally care about the rest. 

What would we value bitcoin on if the dollar was to be made redundant like the Zimbabwe dollar? Or all currencies and crypto currency was to take over.

P.s. Zimbabwe ($1 = 642,371,437,695, 221,000)

lots of money to be made in adult diapers

Yes you are right. But the change in value is not instant. Inflation takes time given how the system is manipulated and the masses are still in their beer induced coma's watching football.

You guys need to remember to add that as the value of the dollar goes down, your transition from btc--->usd will yield less and less as the collapse continues. Also with inflation, its only a matter of time before the loaf of bread at the corner store costs 20 bux, or 2 btc (today value).

I guess my 50 bitcoins will be worth much more than $550 then huh 

predictinator is both bold and zesty.

Wow that's a pretty bold prediction...

Care to elaborate more?

BTC is certainly over9000 USD in 2013.

Lots of money to be made then. 

that would be good

Last baby boomers start claiming their entitlements through the U.S. gov't.

Financial markets, Equities, Gold, and Silver crash at least 25% each.

Unemployment/underemployment reaches 40%

Short-term deflation is in the air as there is a run on fiat currencies.

Central banks print in an effort to stop deflation.

Helicopter Ben overreacts and ends up inflating the USD into oblivion.

Investors dump their dollars to get real tangible goods (gold, silver, real estate, commodities).

Gold and silver prices skyrocket and this produces a mass shortage of physical metal.

Bitcoin prices, given its unregulated nature, have skyrocketed up to $100, down to $30, up to $500, down to $150, and have gone upwards of $1000 each.

...