Topic: Speculation: Bitcoin price minimum over next few months (Read 1190 times)
Well, we're at your predicted floor today. It will be interesting to see how it goes.
Impressive post captain Howdy! Do you trade equities or any derivatives because you sure have a good technical understanding of charts?
R^2 = coefficient of determination. Google it 
April 1st is just a guess - using the fitted function, the earlier the bottom occurs, the lower it is.
The E is a power of ten, not the natural log, e.
April 1st is just a guess - using the fitted function, the earlier the bottom occurs, the lower it is.
The E is a power of ten, not the natural log, e.
Interesting point ure making...
floor-calculation could be an quiet good market-grow-indicator
but you got only 4 basisdata and im not shure, if the first (and the second) increases of value were already behaving like normal market. i think a few floors later, it could be quiet close to the real bottom.
clould you please explain your graph more? (1E-0.5 means e^(-0.5)?, whats R^2 for?)
am i right: you made a graph through this 4 floors and you will continue the graph until the 5th floor, and you say the prize will be 3.15, but why do you expect the floor on 1 march?
if you look at the nuber days between the recent floors: looks quiet exponential, means 5th floor should be in about 100 days...
do you think that if the prize gets close to your line, ther'll be a bottom?
forum moderator: pls move this thread into economics ->speculation
floor-calculation could be an quiet good market-grow-indicator
but you got only 4 basisdata and im not shure, if the first (and the second) increases of value were already behaving like normal market. i think a few floors later, it could be quiet close to the real bottom.
clould you please explain your graph more? (1E-0.5 means e^(-0.5)?, whats R^2 for?)
am i right: you made a graph through this 4 floors and you will continue the graph until the 5th floor, and you say the prize will be 3.15, but why do you expect the floor on 1 march?
if you look at the nuber days between the recent floors: looks quiet exponential, means 5th floor should be in about 100 days...
do you think that if the prize gets close to your line, ther'll be a bottom?
forum moderator: pls move this thread into economics ->speculation
Will be interesting to see if you are correct.
Just thought I'd drop in my tuppence worth of speculation - I can't put this in the Economics section because I haven't made 5 posts yet.
I wanted to guess where the bitcoin price was going to bottom out during this apparent correction we've been going through since ~Jan 10th. Looking at a few previous corrections, I made a table:
Based on the approximate correction minimums here:
Now, obviously the floor price goes up every time - it goes from 5.5 cents, to 20 cents, to the latest floor price of ~$2.25. So what's the next bottom going to be? Well, if you take the previous floors and plot against date, you get this:
I've added a polynomial fit in excel, not because I think that represents the best function for the data, but it's quick and gave a good R2.
We can now make a rough guess as to the next floor price. If I guess that price is going to bottom out on 1st April, then using this fit, I estimate a floor price of $3.15. Great. Probably totally wrong of course, but we'll have to wait and see...
I added a linear and a power series fit type as well, just to see what they predict:
I wanted to guess where the bitcoin price was going to bottom out during this apparent correction we've been going through since ~Jan 10th. Looking at a few previous corrections, I made a table:
| Date | Days | Correction Price | Correction Size |
| 24/07/2010 | 203 | $0.055 | 39% |
| 10/11/2010 | 309 | $0.2 | 60% |
| 05/04/2011 | 454 | $0.65 | 41% |
| 17/11/2011 | 676 | $2.25 | 93% |
Based on the approximate correction minimums here:
Now, obviously the floor price goes up every time - it goes from 5.5 cents, to 20 cents, to the latest floor price of ~$2.25. So what's the next bottom going to be? Well, if you take the previous floors and plot against date, you get this:
I've added a polynomial fit in excel, not because I think that represents the best function for the data, but it's quick and gave a good R2.
We can now make a rough guess as to the next floor price. If I guess that price is going to bottom out on 1st April, then using this fit, I estimate a floor price of $3.15. Great. Probably totally wrong of course, but we'll have to wait and see...
I added a linear and a power series fit type as well, just to see what they predict:
| date | days | Linear | Polynomial | Power | |
| Next Correction Prediction | 01/04/2012 | 810 | $2.50 | $3.15 | $4.30 |
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