Topic: Speculative Market Analysis (Read 336 times)

Well, I didn't say your red line was a floor but what I saw below your red line is a strong support which may not be likely for the market to break since it has in recent time break the $4000 resistance in some days back. We are
all waiting to see the direction of the market trend in a week from now.

I think thats a really tall order for something as volatile and brand new emerging technology like Bitcoin.     Its most accurate to say the market pricing is going through a process of revision or stabilisation after becoming leveraged via various avenues over much of 2017.

The biggest source of this excess fund incoming can be attributed to a weak Dollar, if looking at DXY or dollar index for 2017 we had a decline for much of the year.   Weak dollar, makes pricing alternate or inverse to it far easier to rise.   That might be the case especially for a globally used rapid velocity currency like BTC.

Present climate for USD is sideways, very possibly putting in a lower high which is bearish.   That means in far future, like 2020 not so much this year we might be able to once again observe a weak dollar.    We can guess BTC benefits again at that time but its all a maybe.    Something as titantic as Dollar reserve value traded and held all over the world by the most stoic of institutions, takes a very long time to turn.  In 2018 it was rising and matched the decline in BTC so really theres a long wait.  

The BTC relevant part is we have a while to wait for things to turn around on BTC.   It has its own local news and development but also this macro economic point of view which imo, is a fairly certain but slow progression to a more bullish scenario for BTC.

Many think we get a fallout of sell off in BTC while people wait and lose patience.    I really dont know, my opinion is we have already seen the majority of the loss and the negative outlook is in the view while news like Samsung or various support in industry for BTC is not reflected in price yet, its ongoing

Thank you very much, this is the good thing about the trade, everyone has a different thought, The red line that I made, is not floor, What was done to show how far it went down, or its interval ..

I think the most healthy thing is to hope that it will happen, and thus be able to react.

If there will be a fall in Bitcoin value it might be difficult to break the strong support below your red line. From the analysis of the chat you provided I see an upward trend in the days to come which is contrary to your view but let see what will be the out come in your next chat.

Long term analysis is most recommended but only for those who can hold for a long time period. If you are in my category I don't think you will be able to hold for that long because of some financial needs that need to be taken care of on a daily basis and I do hope I will be able to safe some for future growth.

Hello! Well it seems that an important movement occurred in the Bitcoin Market:


It seems that if it reached 4200 almost 4300USD and there was correction.

For now it would be prudent to hope that it can happen ... Maybe it will go up a bit, lateralize, but apparently due to the increase in volume, Law of Effort-Result, turned effect.

It is likely to continue to fall (My way of seeing it), because many will think that Bitcoin will continue to rise, and will put their positions betting on the rise, but it is what most think.

Thank you very much, your words are an incentive for me. Well I would not be able to give you a prediction, because as I say, I do not usually predict, but if you want my personal opinion, when reviewing this page: https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html and When you realize that where 100-1000 BTC appears that is approximately at 62.12% reach at least 70% the price would be prone to start rising.

Of course, these statistics shown should have their margin of error, but it is an excellent way to have more security. And the truth I would love that this year we will at least break the 10k barrier, and an upcoming Bull Run, it would be spectacular to exceed 20k, which is for me the Roof .. and from then on would be the Strong Hands decide how far will your ATH .

Regarding the JP Morgan project, I find it interesting, although I have not reviewed anything about the project or its whitepaper, whether it has already come out or not ... But personally, I think Bitcoin is the one that sets the tone, it would have to JP Morgan have your cryptocurrency backed that generates liquidity, if you want to compete with Bitcoin, of course, this is just my way of seeing it.

And well with respect to Samsung, I think they do not want to be left behind in relation to technology, they want to be at the forefront ... In the long term, I think it can help in the Stock Market the shares of SAMSUNG ... and the market bitcoin this introduction I think that if I start to help improve the price of Bitcoin, but little, that is very slowly, while people who do not know this technology, adapt them.

But there is something that I admire from the Investors, is that they always have time to wait, I imagine that it is because of their pace of life, that investing in Bitcoin or Stock Market, they are able to wait for years to make a profit, I really can not endure so long, that's why I study the phases of the market to be able to speculate with it. But if you are an Investor that is clear about your role, and you can hold your Investment for a long time, do it, because you can be sure that Bitcoin will rise, of that there is no doubt.

Good and honest answers mate, thank you for sharing your knowledge with us.
As an investor, I just want to know on how much is the price of BTC by the end of the year, or what will be the ATH for this year alone?

News like JP Morgan getting into crypto and Samsung adding crypto wallets in their next phone release, what would be the effect in the market for long term?

Wow is a prediction, with due respect, I have nothing against predictions, but it would be much smarter to wait for some important movement to occur and thus react.

According to what I have studied in books, it is much better to react than predict, if you predict a movement is practically betting, and the idea of ​​understanding the market, is to have the ability to react to enter or build a position and not bring an unexpected surprise , because it is the easiest way to lose.

 There are often movements that move the market abruptly and volatilely, this Bitcoin market moves differently from the stock market in the Stock Market or Forex, but the Bitcoin market is much more exciting !!

Remember that in predicting, you could at risk the money that we should value, is our ticket to success.

I do not believe much in predictions or signals, most of them take them out only from technical analysis, I mean strips, triangles and a series of tools used by the chartists and lovers of that branch. But they leave aside the most important, and it is the analysis of Supply-Demand, how Strong Hands think, the traps they can place, and many people fall outside the deadlines and therefore lose.

I highly anticipated the price movement of BTC and other cryptocurrencies that I have my eyes on, And I really think that the price could really turn this year and goes back to $2000 perhaps at the end of this year but that is just a speculation and we can rather see something different to turn the tables away from that prediction, Well I am saying this because I am basing my analysis in this site

https://longforecast.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019-btc-to-usd,

But surely we can not just stick the prediction in it, because I have seen the price have changed after the price of bitcoin moves in a different direction the forecast have shown, So I am only looking at it for a guide.

It's a very good analysis, of course Fibonacci uses, what happens is that for me, the accumulation phase and I have it established, there represents a reaccumulation, is what they are considering, in my opinion if I continue to see it as a "Zone Spring ", I'm based on one of Wyckoff's many advanced graphics.

Interesting chart. Personally, I don't think we're so far into the accumulation schematic yet. The crash from $6K obviously entered the market into a new trading range, so if we are really in an accumulation schematic, we're in the very early stages.

This is my current guess as to where we are: https://www.tradingview.com/x/l8BeQtyp

It's not my chart but it's one I agree with. It suggests the selling climax is done and we're in the AR of Phase A, which means we may not see the Spring until late this year or early 2020.

Well you're right, we're in the Accumulation Phase, we are, I put "Spring Zone" because in many of the configurations of Advanced Wyckoff it seems similar, of course, we must wait a few months to enter the Clear Range of Accumulation .... but it is very likely that they will continue testing some points, until the end of the floating offer (which is the intention of the Accumulation phase.) Thank you very much for your valuable contribution.

i suppose something like that is possible but it feels a bit forced. in log scale, it doesn't look like a proper accumulation bottom. it just feels too early and unconfirmed to declare a spring based on a 35% move and subsequent consolidation. we need a few months more to fill in the chart and confirm.

i think we could still be phase A or B. this rally could be the "automatic rally" in either phase. (meaning the final low and spring have not happened yet)

I really did not understand what you really mean sir but our education increases when we are ready to open our mind to new ideas about trading.  We have no experts in cryptocurrencies market as we are all still making some loses.  I believe that collectively we can really learn something new.

They always have. People assume that they are in before the institutions, but that's not the case when it comes to the majority of the people here. The only difference are their allocations.

As more time goes by, and Bitcoin has shown its solidity, institutions and other deep pockets feel more comfortable allocating more of their portfolio to Bitcoin, and this will continue till Bitcoin is a mature enough asset.

I think the main factor for the next bull run is that there are way more fiat entry points right now than was the case back in 2017, and the exchanges themselves have gone through the necessary upgrades as well.

I do think that institutional investors will play a role in fuelling the next bull market.

However, how large or small this role is is still unclear, and that will ultimately influence price movement as well.

Personally I believe that right now we are still in an accumulation zone. Smart money should be buying in instead of selling off. I don't necessarily see a very large bullish outbreak in the first half of the year though, because markets are still mostly bearish and we see that the $4k resistance is quite strong.

The magnitude of the next bull market I think will be significantly less than the previous one because of the extent to which markets have matured. I don't think price swings will be as large. But still, this is an excellent time to buy.

You are absolutely right, at this time the market has gained much more attention, because the state of lateralization kept many operators and traders to the expectation, these movements are very positive, they make the castles in the air appear again in people and know that this market has a lot to offer.

Well, even do many crypto users are already tired of analysis after a long more than year of waiting then still i believe that some analysis and predictions are still good as long as it will favor the welfare of our investments. So i say this is better than spreading FUD that it will just make the market worst.

Alright, though the market is trying to remove my patience I'm trying to be more patient and that's why I decided to get on the long run. No regrets whatever the outcome would be. It takes time for the market to take these institutions and other big players to join the party. I'll put your advice on my mind that I will try to make some profit if I ever see some window of it. Yeah, I'm in long term holding but I'm free also to take out some cash whenever the market displays a perfect current price.

I think so, there are some institutions that play an important role in the market, in fact, there are many operators that have enough money and that operate. If you look carefully, there are many robots that keep the market and at this moment in my way. to see the trade, I do not see any entry, because you are in Long, keep the entrance and remember to make a profit, the market is very benevolent, it will give you the chance to win even if you see that you are coming. . The important thing is to have some patience, the big operators have time as an ally.

Great read! Thanks for that analysis that you have shared. Don't worry about me, I don't have any plans of selling around $4,200. I'm aiming higher though I'm not trying to become greedier again like I did last time. I just feel that we're going to get there soon, I like the last part that we're going for a good bullish rally. Like the other analysis that I've read, are you also considering that within the next months/years institutions are going to join the market?

Hello @passwordnow good next year I see it very good, I think that when we review millionaire portfolios, the majority of Strong Hands hope to at least accumulate between 70 and 80% of Bitcoin .. If you are long, be careful, remember that these movements are double-edged weapons, as I say in 4200USD if it arrives, I'm sure many will go into Long and put their Stop Loss in 3800, because it is creating a good pull of liquidity there, and most of the Operators of A lot of money they know, and they can throw a Short to hunt those Stop Loss (Buy Cheap) to raise the price and get a profit from that Trade ... The idea of ​​the Accumulation Phase is to end the Floating Offer, right now demand and if the Demand is greater than the Offer the price goes up ... the important thing of all this is to understand that the majority of the market is moved by the emotions of the people, and the adrenaline is something fascinating, in this the way to understand the market, now when you see that The price of BTC goes up without Volume is a good indication, because it is telling us indirectly that there is no floating offer and is preparing for a good bullish rally.

Hi there Luckmcfly,

What do you think about next year? we are about to head the next halving around May 2020. Can you give your full take on it? I'm long on bitcoin and I'm sure that everyone does here and so you are. I want to feel the excitement and want to hear words coming from an analyst like you.

What's your analysis on it before and after the halving occurs?

Of course, the long-term analysis is the most recommended, if you see, we are according to Wyckoff in a clear stage of Accumulation, and specifically leaving the Spring Zone, there was a small bullish rally. As I see the market, you see that the market moved with a high volume, which means that even people or operators do not want to sell at that price range, in my opinion it may reach the 4200USD and lower or a small recession to go to the liquidation zones in 3600USD, this from what I see in the Volume, in the long term there may be a lateralization and a possible bullish rally, but I see it somewhat distant, because the idea of ​​the Accumulation Stage is that eliminate the Floating Offer, so that the price rises without Volume, if it starts to rise without Volume we could be facing a possible upward trend.


What do you think about it?

Analysts are always welcome here.

So what's your outlook on the BTCUSD market, especially longer term? Do you think the current price action fits a particular Wyckoff schematic?

Usually when someone opens a thread like this, they share some analysis.

Hi all! In view of some important market movements, I would like to share with you the analysis that I can do about the currencies that you want, I am based on the philosophy of Wyckoff and my intention is that we can all make a great feedback on the analysis of the market . I say the why and so we all participate, this is not to give signs or advice of Trading, my intention is that our financial education increases every day more, I am no expert, but I think I can contribute.Well I hope to have published this thread in the correct Topic =)