Topic: Sport's betting experience (Read 513 times)

It is also a skill difficult to develop, after all people have the tendency to bet on the favorites as many think those bets are a sure thing, however a smart bettor looks at the odds of the underdog and tries to figure out if those are the actual odds of the underdog winning or if those odds are artificially higher and there is an opportunity for them to make a bet with advantage over the casino.

However in order to do something like that then it is necessary to have an extensive knowledge about the sport and the league you are betting on, something which very few gamblers have at all.

If we already lose our bet because of picking the wrong team, the research that we did before will not be used. I mean, we know that before we place the bet, we must research to find which team we will place the bet and if we can not find more info and conclude that the team is equally strong, we do not have to place a bet instead just watching. By doing this, you do not risk losing your money while you can use your money to put on the other match. How if we can not find which team will be more profitable? And we were confused to determine which team we wanted to place the bet on. If I were in this situation, I would not risk placing to the unknown without knowing.

I agree with this. Even our team has a chance to win, we should still be careful because the situation can change at any time and our analysis can be wrong. Maybe we already see that in the second round, the situations change and not as we predicted before because the coach uses a different strategy that we do not know yet. Yes, I agree that it is better to bet on the sports that we know the most.

We must be knowledgeable in each Sports that we will going to bet to increase the chance of choosing who will win and what will be the outcome because remember that Both parties will contribute in every fight either individual sports or team effort , it is always your team and the opponent that will contribute in the outcome.

Example , you bet in the advantageous team, even they are in the advantage yet the opponent is still has a chance of winning depend in how your team will perform inside the game, so it is always needed that we know the Sports and we know the fighter/player/team that we will going to bet on.

What does this even mean?
If 2 teams with equally strong stats faces each other, there will always be either of them will be against or in favour of the odds, and It is more profitable if you bet with the underdog team between these two. Now, the risk we're talking here is equal as we say they are equally strong team.
So, If you lose your bet that doesn't mean you have to go over and do more research and gather info because you absolutely don't know the outcome of the game.
2 equally strong teams will have a very unpredictable outcome than those with huge odd gap.

That could be an option to choose the team with the same power and almost the same statistics. So our chance is still not too bigger than 50% and if we do not have more info, that will make us get lost. We need to know our chance in sports betting so we do not have to force or try to place the bet. It is better to search for the other match that can give us more chances to win with our info so that it does not make us feel difficult to choose the teams if we can analyze the teams and know which teams have stronger than the other teams.

It's basically only choose for corner kick option not choose which teams will be the winner so this bets option only for statistics matches not pick who is the winner of the matches and i my view i think if two teams have equal power this strategy might be good to be applied because possibly we will see offensive playing for both of teams and corner kick between them too will possibly over than 3.5 because they will playing attacking each other but as this only an alternative options for sport betting the predictions can be wrong or missed

I agree, chances and strategy doesn't really blend well so I wouldn't rely on a strategy when the game is clearly a game of chance and the odds are the one's that's going to decide the outcome, that's unless it's poker where you can probably bluff your way into getting what you want even if the odds is stacked against you. Sports betting don't have a strategy as you're an outsider and the only thing that you can rely on is the skill of the team or fighter that you've betted your money on.

Although I rarely place a bet on the sportsbook, if I have in that situation, I will not place a bet, especially if I do not have more info about each team. It sounds difficult for me to decide which team I should choose as I do not want to gamble with both. I asked this to a friend who often places bets on the sportsbook and he also advises like that but if he can get one more info about one team, he will try to place the bet but not in a big amount. He also says that at that time, it will be really a "real gamble situation" for him as he can not get much info about each team that has the same power.

This is where skills do differ on each bettor because some do really able to see those kind of chances for an underdog to beat out the favorites but we know that upsets do happen seldom which means
that it wouldnt be an assurance if you would have this kind of behavior towards underdog betting.

Skills will depend on each bettor and this is where dictates neither you do have a good betting history or a bad one. Bet according to your knowledge and of course
looking for some entertainment.

In fact the best rewards are the bets that are placed against the favourites.
Because while everyone bets on those teams who are more likely to win, the house will significantly reduce the reward for them.
But a good bettor sees beyond the odds and sees the chance that someone will beat the favourite, betting on him and earning an excellent reward.
Now that's playing wisely, but it's a skill few have.

Once you become an experienced sports bettor you will easily understand the odds movement, and with the odds movement, you can also find a value where your bet will likely win. The most important thing is to ensure that you know how to manage your bankroll as that's very crucial if you want to succeed in the long run. Sports betting is a game of skills, the more you learn and acquire skills in sports betting the better your success rate.

It will be a difficult choice if both teams are equally strong and it will be a difficult task to find the best and also accurate information for both teams.
and what we need to know is that in every match the team will change strategy and formation in every match because the opponents are always different, statistics and also the previous match will be the last choice to be chosen even though sometimes it is not accurate because the performance and strength of players can not be predicted and will be seen during the game, and that will change the situation.

This is one of two ways in which you can gain money with sport bets, there is one factor that allows sport bettors to take advantage of a distortion on the odds, and that is that many times even if casinos are able to price the odds of a match perfectly if the people decide to side with one side too strongly then they need to adjust the odds to encourage bettors to put money to the other side, and if the distortion is big enough this creates an opportunity for experimented sport bettors to gain a small edge over the casinos, however learning how to do that is extremely difficult.

Yes, if we have more knowledge about the game then we have better chance of winning it and there are some sport bettors who always bet on their favourite team even though the opponent have equal or better chance of winning it so its kind of betting driven by emotions. As a sport bettor we should be careful with betting amount and keep the amount under our limits to avoid life risks.

I've done betting on my favorites consistently and found out that that strategy isn't that effective because our favorites couldn't continuously win all the time. However, it still gives contentment despite the ineffectiveness. There's really no specific technique or strategy in sports betting because things will depend on the strength of the players.

Unfortunately there are no real safe bets in sport games, except if the game is rigged, but how will we ever find out if a game is manipulated. I like your approach to bet on the favorite. In the German Bundesliga I am doing the same betting on either Bayern or Dortmund. If the odds are around 1.40 and below it's a good way to make some profits. In the past I was more risk friendly and looked for high payout bets but in the long run it didn't really pay off. Smaller but more steady profits is better approach for me. Any high risk bet I would only consider in very small amounts.

It's basically trying to take advantage of possible mistakes that would be made by the bookie whenever a match result is out? Kinda dumb really, since bookies have been in the business for so long that they have their own statistics to judge the odds of a match, much so that the result of a single current match might not even affect the original odds they actually set beforehand. Honestly I hardly doubt you could even make it even with this, maybe in certain matchups but that's about it.

If two teams have the same power, that will be difficult to choose as those two teams can give better performance in the match. And there is no other way we can choose them except we can gather more info about how strong each team is so we can put our choice in one of them. But if somehow, our choice is defeated by the opponent team, we should not regret it because that means we need to collect more info about the team.

I dont quite get Amuls strategy I would need to see it done live to understand better the idea of matching a bet to the game progress.  Sounds viable vs the odds but a large part of this strategy is experience and recognizing when one team is very likely able to take the whole game while its still unclear to the majority betting.  Not simple so much as betting with confidence.

And that really happen inside any sports. Shit happened where heavy favorites got beaten by the underdog.

Odd is not really favoring anyone. Bookies are just doing their job, and us, as bettors, we also need to do our job doing good research

and making sure that we are really involved with the sport that we are betting to ensure some good edge during our betting sessions..

for you to bet in sports betting you must be familiar with the game you are going to bet and with the players/team you are going to choose,
it is not only the team you like but also the opponent because both performance will count in your chance to win each game.
aside from the ODDs you should do your own research and study about how the game will run and Ended so if ever you lose then there is nothing to blame but you.
but of course sports betting is the safest gambling at all compared to luck based gambling and card games.

In order to bet on sports you need to know the adversity of the teams if a team is playing well and manages these, there will be a chance of winning. Using new information from the match, the bettor can place the opposite bet to look like a certain butt before the start of the match direct betting works best for football matches horse racing basketball and other sports. Gives you a chance to make a lot of money you will still be able to place bets on overall, Under low and in other markets.

It depends on the sport we are going to bet, if there is a match between two equally powerful players then it will be interesting and odds can be attractive too but strong against weak is not going to bring any real profits but if the weak team manages to win the match then its a golden day for those players who bet on them.

Many people is under illusion, that such odds, as 1.1-1.3 can be considered as "safe", but man, this is totally wrong.
And i can't tell that your trick also can be considered as "safe" because the probability is not higher is your first best had been lost.

Exactly. I've been there as a noob in this gambling and just following the odd strategy doesn't really give you the edge over time. Maybe sticking on what was your favorite team or doing more some research before the game happens was much more helpful to me. I don't know if looking somehow to undervalued teams as always is a profitable strat but it could be wrong most of the time too, best to stick on analyzation.

definitely there's no safe bets in sportsbetting, there's always at least one factor that will unexpectedly influence the outcome. we can't hold how the player's think and their performance inside the field or arena. but if you find a way how to get better percentage of winnings, then that's good for you. but it will not be applicable to others. also, it doesn't always mean if the odds are low, you have the chance of winning. upsets can always happen at any sport.

There's no strategy that will bring you success if you will only be based on the odds, it won't work in the long run as for me that's blindly betting. The odds can be tricky as sometimes the team may be the favorites based on the odds but it could only be overvalued. You need to carefully analyze, look for an undervalued teams before you bet as that would make you profitable in the long run.

I think you don't have to wait for the match with no 3.5 corner in the first half. All matches are with odds 1.32-1.40.
In his first statement, OP just suggested that anything can happen and if there is no 3.5 corner in some match in the first half, the odds should be higher in the next match and that you will be able to recover a bit losses from the match when you lose.

There are very few people who can really make sports betting their job. And if they do, it is often accompanied by mala fide practices. in the long run, a gambling site will always win if you play fair. And if you are lucky enough to win a lot, then you will soon get a limit, then the party will be over quickly I think. No idea how much this can be expressed in percentages.

Speaking or talking about some consistent profits then this could be possible but of course it would really be still having those losses.What matter most here is that you do able to make profits in the end of the day
but always be mindful that gambling is something that shouldnt really be engaged too much so that you would really make yourself get rid of possible addiction problems.

Bet according to your knowledge and dont tend to go overboard with your limits. Odds is there and analysis should be made off and not just on jumping without any idea in mind
on what you are doing.

It comes back to raw mathematics at the end of the day and the house is far ahead of the average sports better. Let's assume that the sportsbook adds a little edge to every bet, so in reality you see a 1.33 bet but at the core it is a 1.25 with a margin of protection for the house. That means that for you to win over the long term, you need to win once out of every 5 bets - at which point you've made 125% of your original stake in profit. However, if you were to lose just one of those games you'd be at 25% profit. This leaves very little margin for error and whereas you say it is not "100%" guaranteed, there are actually quite a few games out there with over 7 corners total (over both halves) which can easily translate into 3.5+ corners in the first half. Just remember, you're up against these sportsbooks with very deep statistical analysis going on, so it's almost impossible to find a long term edge.

That is exactly the issue, it seems people do not understand that the odds for each match and each kind of bet are not generated by people but by very complex algorithms that take a great deal of factors into account, so it is almost impossible to find an instance in which a particular bet is going to give you profits consistently, as such it is better to not waste our time with something like this as it has no chance to be a profitable strategy over the long term.

As far betting is being discussed, no particular betting option is better than the other one or it is a guarantee for winning every option is a potential winning or losing. Manchester for example has not been a reliable betting team this season. They have not been consistent and going to bet on corner with them is risky. It is better to bet your wish and not to follow prediction because is still falling back to luck.

There are a lot of betting options on sports and if it's about betting with an option for the number of corners like for example only half time for a total of 3.5 at odds like that, I personally probably wouldn't be able to bet there. Because for me, right now corner kicks even though it looks easy to get but in fact, when we bet with that option it's like something that is difficult. But yes, it will still depend on what kind of team is competing, because here even if we side with the favorite team it still doesn't make us easy to win even though we only bet on the option number of corner kicks.

I'm not a fan of european football. I don't follow the sport or watch games.

Here are some ideas for accurately predicting points over / unders based on observations of other sports.

1.  Some teams start quickly and score more points in the 1st half than the 2nd half. Other teams are the opposite, slow starters. Some teams have good cardio and endurance, while others are explosive but lack the endurance to play well in the 2nd half. Observations can be drawn based on team performance, which can increase accuracy.

2.  In the mid to late season, teams that are in the running for playoffs will usually be more competitive and score more points than teams that are out of contention for playoffs. Factors such as these can help to generalize how motivated teams are to show up, score points and win games.

3.  Team rivalries. There are rivalries which lead to some teams trying much harder to win the game, than they would if they played a team they didn't care about. Team rivalries are sometimes a good environment for calling points over.

Long story short, there are many indicators and observations which can be drawn from sports which remain somewhat consistent over time.

Part of being a successful gambler is observing games and finding patterns and a formula for making predictions that have good accuracy. IMO anyway.

Betting is a risk, so anyone should really do it just based on their risk appetite. We all have varying risk tolerance which explains why some win big and win small, while some win small or lose small. It just depends on how much you are willing to shed for a sports bet.

In sports betting, the chances of you as a gambler winning a bet is in the hands of the player, so you must know how to distinguish which team is strong and which team is weak. By knowing which of the teams have the higher edge of getting the goal will give you a better opportunity to win your bet. So, in this case, you must know first the backgrounds of the teams playing, most specifically their history and track records. Although sometimes there is also a sudden and quick turn of events despite being certain on the first half that the team you bet on is going to win. I think it's a mix of luck and skills of the players and the twists of events that could get you your bag of money.

It depends in sport betting as you can't always in theory lose every bet you make so as long as you have enough bankroll to double your bet until you win Martingale can work here.This is theory only because in practice is different.Of course it needs a hell lot of patience which is missing in 99% of us,the gamblers but if you put some effort to it you can win.The example the OP makes is a good one with just over 3.5 corners in the first half and if in a couple of games this does not happen I am confident in the third or fourth bet it can happen.In the end let us keep in mind that there is no working strategy in gambling and sport betting otherwise we would not have as many bookies as we have right now.

Any stats to back this claim up?

I don't think that it's a long term feasible strategy to adopt. People are going to realize that this trend exists (if it actually exists in the first place) and the odds will start to reflect that sooner or later.

Unless you have an algorithm and extensive research, I don't think that these simplistic bets work anymore to generate positive EV consistently.

It's not gambling if you know that you will win!!!

I guess that OP had some lucky strake with his bets! Why not, that happens to every regular gambler... he found some nice method and he just shared it! Like with all others, I believe this can work sometimes, but there's no method that works all the time! After all, "80-85% matches 1st half Happen corner over 3."  are nice and high chances, but we saw them fall... even higher ones fall! By the way, I don't bet on corners, I think it's all about pure luck!

Match fixing is something I don't recommend to anyone unless you want to get yourself in trouble. There are also players looking for mistakes on websites that claim they are value bets. What do other people actually think about this? It's also a bit like cheating. Recently had several examples around this situation with covid. On the one hand, it's very smart, but on the other hand, I think bookmakers are cracking down on this too?

The only safe bet are those bets you placed knowing in advance how the match will play out. In other words, you know of the match fixing that will happen eventually hence you bet on the outcome. These patterns that you have found out isn't 100% exploitable, and could not be considered as safe bets because even favorites to win the match sometimes drop off of their game and deliver lackluster performance. While on paper it is a good betting strategy, in practice this will, most of the time, fail since you cannot expect favorites to always cover the odds that were designated to them by the linemakers.

^ I think not every match has the same result and you are right, bet at your risk because these tips won't have a guarantee that has a perfect result.
Predicting what will be the result per match is very hard to know, what if you will lose in the first match and applying those strategies in the next match but it will lose again. This conclusion won't work perfectly and probably knowing the team condition is a better way to draw a conclusion on who will win in the next match.

It is the same old story, while there are many that enjoy gambling for what it is, which is nothing more but a form of entertainment, there are others that want to make out of it a profession, and in order to do that then there is a need to create a method that earns money while they gamble, but taking into account that the expected value we have on each bet is negative this means that the only way to win, at least when it comes to sport bets, is to find markets that are priced incorrectly, and this incredibly difficult as this will require massive amounts of knowledge and information that the average sport bettor simply does not have.

Live betting can be very profitable if you are more certain of the game then those who fear losing their bet, you take part in that premium of them closing a bet early and its usually more rewarding to do well then betting long before the game.   Makes spectating with some insight an enjoyable thing to do, also slightly frantic as the odds are constantly changing but I like how the odds flip during the game events.

I agree. The opportunities for profitable and successful beting do not happen when the result is clear, but rather when you are able to gain some inside knowledge or have some advantage that is not known to the general public and allows you to place a bet with some asymmetric advantage to your forecast. That is very rarely if ever going to happen with teams that are well known and well followed, as people and bookies are really on top of them.

This is why people should really be keen on believing on things specially on dealing with gambling predictions on where someone do really make out some predictions and telling it that it is on the safe side

which same as you said that nothing is assured and this one is really contradicting thats why people reading up specially noobs should really be careful on believing on things.

Nothing beats out when you do play and make bets according into your own knowledge and specifically on a certain sport.

Your post is contradictory, because firstly you mentioned the strategy as a safe betting method, but on your last phrase you say this tip doesn't work 100%. It means the strategy may work or not, like any other we can make use of.

Anyway, it's an interesting concept that can be useful for some gamblers as a start point to develop their own betting patterns, by improving the one shared by you.

I am glad that someone else picked up as well because that is what I got from it as well, it seems @Amuls is using a very simple betting strategy that according to him has a high chance of happening.

However then he recommends that in the case that you happen to lose to increase the amount we bet during the next match, which is just another form of martingale, and we know that martingale has no chance of working over the long term.

the strategy has really no assurance of winning all the time. it depends on the situation. and you're right, one losing match, and all your winnings will be wiped out. but good that the OP share his observations, who knows such insight will be used by some bettors here. but they do need to be careful in selecting the team.
still, in sportsbetting, there's no 100% assurance of the winning team even if the team you are rooting for is the stronger one. there will be other factors that may possibly affect the outcome of the game.

That's honestly something that can work for some people and for some, it might not, I honestly loved the idea of YOSHIE to bet at the second half, my friends generally try and place the bets as soon as the match start because of the impaired judgement by alcohol or maybe by their biases. At the same time I am super careful and try and avoid betting on the scores, honestly I never won on that, people usually just try and bet on simple things like *who will win?* That's about it and most of them usually go through the *expert picks*as well there are so many  articles that you can find online where people sit back and analyze who might win and why ? I have been going through quite a few and taking them as references, here on the forum as well we have so many prediction threads but no trick at the end of the day can work 100% of the time.

This is true, while there may be small anomalies that pop up there is unlikely to be any advantage you can get from established bookmakers in the long term.You might win 10 games in a row using this strategy and think it pays off - only to have all your victories reset by the statistical average reverting causing 4 losses in a row. Bookmakers add a certain margin to each bet which gives them a buffer, so while the actual bet before this margin might be 1.2, the bookmaker will bump it to 1.3 or 1.4 to make sure that they have enough margin for error over a wide range of bets that they accept. No bookmaker will last for long if they were leaking money and they are always adjusting their strategy behind the scenes to cope with things like this.

This. If It was possible to exploit a certain pattern, then everybody do it and everybody would win. Since everybody cannot win at the same time, no pattern/strategy can work in the long term.

For this strategy to work, you need to win every 3 games out of 4. That is If the odds are ~1.34. With lower odds, then you'll need to win more. Out of 100 games, you need to win 75 of them at least so you won't lose money. The moment you catch an unlucky streak, you'll lose your principal and it will be over. Unlucky streaks do happen.

TS suggests using the Martingale strategy although people who understand how it works never tie two separate events together. Personally, I think this strategy is not successful and you will lose your money in the long run. That's why it's better to analyze the teams than to try your luck.

So, you are just suggesting to bet on this outcome because you think that the bookmakers misjudge the chances of this event? To be honest, it's hard to believe in this - bookmakers use statistics for such long periods that are simply not available for ordinary bettors. Plus, they process it not only with the help of experts, but also using AI, so I strongly doubt that they are mistaken in such simple estimates as in your example.

good for your observation OP ,to be honest never bet on corner kick also not as good at observing gambling stations as you ! will try to deepen the strategy that you posted at one time bet with a small amount but with other statistics because if lose then I can't blame anyone thanks your experience looks easy

If this event really has a stable probability in the range of 80-85%, and the bookmakers offer odds of 1.32-1.4, then the bet on this outcome is profitable. Can you tell in more detail how you got this data and based on statistics for what period? In 10 matches, in 100 or more? Because if this is a small dataset, then fluctuations can be very large and the real probabilities of the occurrence of this event will be very different from those obtained by you.

The odds fixed between 1.32-1.40

I am also intrigued about this information from OP, and I would want tot try it and see the results for myself. You are indeed right about the downside of this strategy, and that being said although it may have worked, there still risks in doing so. I bet you would also agree that no strategy has nor risks, right? Nevertheless, you’ll never know if you won’t try, so I’ll go try it while taking note of what you guys have been responding here.

Tell me if I understood the strategy you are proposing correctly: initially, we believe that the event "the first half of the corners are greater than 3.5" has effective odds in the 1.32-1.4 region. We must wait until this event does not happen for some team and the chances of the next match for this event will increase (become more than 1.4) and at that moment make a bet. Right?

Interesting information, I rarely go for the corner markets in football but I might give it a try next time if I get a free bet and maybe include it in a bet builder since the bookie i'm using at the moment barely has alt lines on the first half corners. The only downside in this type of strategy is that it only takes a couple of losses until you find yourself in a hole but if you're finding success then good to know. Also instead of staking high I suggest following some bet sizing (units) in order to maintain a bit of bankroll management.

Of course, everyone knows that, gambling is risky.

What is certain is that everyone has good and bad experiences in soccer betting, it all depends on how they make bets there are direct low odds, but they make a bet 10x the betting odds for example: 2.71 : 3.39 : 2.47 this is the initial bet if one soccer team is weak.

That's my experience, as I said above, I bet depending on the team, I mean the opposing team is weak, but if the second team is strong I don't place a bet in the first half, I will place in the last bank at 70-80 minutes, the odds for me are quite promising and the bet goes up from the beginning to 40.60x10.

Eg: English league today Chelsea vs. Liverpool, of course I will bet at the last minute and if the opposing team like Leeds United vs. Burnley I will double the bet for one of them 10x the original bet.

Most of the sports betting people go for the total goals or the match win. Gamblers who are very much into soccer or the specific match used to place bets on these bets. Op have mentioned 80-85% of the matches have got the corner over 3.5 which is a safe bet, but we don't know whether this will continue. When it comes to sports betting going with analytics and choosing the odds will increase the chance of winning.

The idea seems to be new for me because during sports bets usually i bet for total goals, matches results or total scores but never tried to bets on cornerkick options however may i know if OP bets on this options and during this season how much percentages to win the bets because I so curious what to see his bets results

Not going to happen.

Sportsbetting markets are efficient so there is virtually no long term exploitable pattern for sportsbettors to be able to take advantage of. Unless you have extensive backtesting/insider info/arbitrage opportunities.

Your EV, at the end of the day, is likely still going to be negative regardless of how many times you do this - or how many times you have won in the past.

An odds of 1.32-1.40 is a favorite odds to consider by most sports betting. This means the chances of getting it happened has a good percentage.

Sports are unpredictable, upset happened and for me, it's not worth betting on that kind of odds but in the end your money, your decision.

Well, generally, if you found that strategy effective to you then you are good to go.

Obviously, there are no safe bets so don't expect a lessen risks when placing a bet even involving a sure Favorites or not. There will really be a time that you need that strategy of yours and see if that's effective in the long run.

Good luck and hope your insight will be effective for long.

I am following English premier League and Australia A league. 80-85% matches 1st half Happen corner over 3.5 that's odds 1.32-1.40 . So anyone wants to safe betting then you can bet there. Not all matches. Select for a team like Manchester United. If Manchester United and it's partner fail to cover 3.5 corner in 1st half in a match then the next match stake high between Manchester United Vs opponent team. That's the simple tricks. This tips dose not work for 100%, so bet your own risk.