Sports betting - How to determine if the line is a trap?

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Quote from: alani123 on June 13, 2024, 05:33:18 PM

If a team has good chances to win but the odds placed on the opponent are giving out a low multiplier for your bet than expected, then I think this type of match is worth a look.
I'd say it's not that hard to figure this one out, but really it's something very often overlooked. People will go on to bet on their favorite team usually regardless of odds and won't even do much to adjust their bet size. A smart gambler would adjust his bets based on how risky a certain bet is. However betting blindly will just result in having no advantage and leaving things mostly to luck.

Surely you won't be able to change the outcomes, but by looking at the odds and choosing which bets are more worth than others you're making a choice that in the long term will help achieve better results in terms of performance. Really it's mostly about avoiding certain bets that have bad odds.

As explained in the OP.

Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 05:51:25 AM

here ; https://www.thegistsports.com/faq/sports-betting/

Quote

What’s a betting line?
A line actually refers to the point spread, or the specific number of points the sportsbook uses to determine the odds between an underdog and a favorite. The line is the margin between those two outcomes.

So that says it's not the betting odds which is known as moneyline when betting on a team to win straight up. We are discussing about the "point spread" here, it's the + - of the game which is harder to predict than just predicting the winner of the game.

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Quote from: Yatsan on June 13, 2024, 01:27:21 PM

Do a couple of bets and from that, decide whether it is your day or not. Personally once I got consecutive loss, then I will just be taking a rest and try the other day I would be able to do so.

I like that way of determining things, professionally I have not done something like that, but I am really going to take that advice because it seems that it is something quick, and there is not so much complication and I think that life is about that, not complicating things so much and seeing things as they are, I have always said something, when one is in a casino sometimes we think that it is a trap where we always lose money, but sometimes the casino system we must mature in understanding that it is basically an advantage of the house against which we fight, it is a very different thing to what is always done when the casinos are a fraud.

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Quote from: Assface16678 on June 13, 2024, 05:27:24 AM

Quote from: Questat on June 13, 2024, 01:01:48 AM

Quote from: Mrbluntzy on June 08, 2024, 07:03:26 AM

Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

What matters is how long you have been using the strategy and how often you had success with the strategy, you already said that you have recorded many success with the strategy and other gamblers that have not used the strategy can not really tell more about it, like me, I don't know about it but I know that there are more than two strategy in sport betting. I even guess that every sport gambler has their strategy that is giving them success and some of those strategy are not also working.

If we can't prove that we are profitable in sports betting, then basically what we are doing is just gambling based on luck. Honestly, it's hard to be unrelistic when the record does not prove anything, and in order for that record to be reliable, it should be the result for long term gambling, not only on few months and then conclude that you already found the recipe for success.

Well, I cant still say that sports betting is more on luck, well its because you only have 50/50 chances of losing or winning the bet because you will only bet in one team or player per match so the chances od winning is pretty big you just have to be more analytic and of course you are familiar with what sports you are betting, for example like me I often or my favorite sports I bet on is NBA leagues because I'm too familiar with the players and teams and I like watching those matches so I have a slight idea which has the advantage and most likely to win in a match by using that I also like to see the team stats and player stats so that I could add that to my analysis wether there is a factor that could make a team win or have an advantage. I'm sure we all have different way of strategies on howbcan we determine our selves on which team is more stronger.

It's easy to determine which team is stronger by simply looking at their standings and other factors such as statistics. It's true that the better team wins most of the time, but the question is: can it make us profitable as sports bettors? I'm sure you are familiar with the point spread and moneyline, and I believe bettors who are serious and want to minimize the house edge bet on the point spread rather than just picking the winning team on the moneyline, since the odds are usually lower than 1.50 when talking about a heavy favorite team.

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Quote from: Charles-Tim on June 05, 2024, 05:07:23 AM

What do you mean by looking at the line?

I prefer to check some last matches of the clubs or team that are playing and also check their h2h. These help a lot. But I do not just bet like that because I still also let the match get close to the time it would begin and check the players that will play in the match.

I think just looking at the last match of a team to predict if the team will win the bet is not enough because their are teams that they find it difficult to win games and If they finally win in the match it doesn't mean they still have the chance of winning game in the next match. The best way for me to predict if a team will win the match is to check the performance of the teams previous game in a row, if the team is able to win for or five times in a row then I can consider it. Another thing I check in a team before predicting is the performance of the team so far for the season. The success that a team has been able to achieve in performance is important when making prediction, though it is not a guarantee that bet must be won just because of the performance of a team in previous games.

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If a team has good chances to win but the odds placed on the opponent are giving out a low multiplier for your bet than expected, then I think this type of match is worth a look.
I'd say it's not that hard to figure this one out, but really it's something very often overlooked. People will go on to bet on their favorite team usually regardless of odds and won't even do much to adjust their bet size. A smart gambler would adjust his bets based on how risky a certain bet is. However betting blindly will just result in having no advantage and leaving things mostly to luck.

Surely you won't be able to change the outcomes, but by looking at the odds and choosing which bets are more worth than others you're making a choice that in the long term will help achieve better results in terms of performance. Really it's mostly about avoiding certain bets that have bad odds.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

Lately, I've been using a simple strategy in sports betting by spotting lines that are overvalued or undervalued, which could easily attract public bets. Based on my record, I've had some success using this strategy. I realize that looking at stats alone to determine which team is better will not work. As gamblers, we have to do what others are not doing. A typical gambler will just look at the stats to determine the better team; they don't complicate things or consider other factors, which sometimes leads them to fall into traps.

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

Everything's a gamble, meaning without any assurance. Complicating sometimes result to bigger loss. The reason why many gamblers are complicating whenever they place a bet is simply because of frustration and struggle of winning which is normal. There are times I am winning more from betting at ease, especially whenever I'm just being lucky. Thinking in a complicated manner will just be a wasted effort because in gambling, if it is not for you then it won't be in your hands. This is a better way in order to be able to accept how things really are going. Once you got frustrated from exerting too much effort on your bet and end up losing, you'll be just hungry of winning. Let things be, if I would be asked.

Do a couple of bets and from that, decide whether it is your day or not. Personally once I got consecutive loss, then I will just be taking a rest and try the other day I would be able to do so.

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Quote from: Questat on June 13, 2024, 01:01:48 AM

Quote from: Mrbluntzy on June 08, 2024, 07:03:26 AM

Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

What matters is how long you have been using the strategy and how often you had success with the strategy, you already said that you have recorded many success with the strategy and other gamblers that have not used the strategy can not really tell more about it, like me, I don't know about it but I know that there are more than two strategy in sport betting. I even guess that every sport gambler has their strategy that is giving them success and some of those strategy are not also working.

If we can't prove that we are profitable in sports betting, then basically what we are doing is just gambling based on luck. Honestly, it's hard to be unrelistic when the record does not prove anything, and in order for that record to be reliable, it should be the result for long term gambling, not only on few months and then conclude that you already found the recipe for success.

Well, I cant still say that sports betting is more on luck, well its because you only have 50/50 chances of losing or winning the bet because you will only bet in one team or player per match so the chances od winning is pretty big you just have to be more analytic and of course you are familiar with what sports you are betting, for example like me I often or my favorite sports I bet on is NBA leagues because I'm too familiar with the players and teams and I like watching those matches so I have a slight idea which has the advantage and most likely to win in a match by using that I also like to see the team stats and player stats so that I could add that to my analysis wether there is a factor that could make a team win or have an advantage. I'm sure we all have different way of strategies on howbcan we determine our selves on which team is more stronger.

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Each gamblers who wants to place a bet will use many ways to find the right teams. You do the right things for you and other people will use their ways to find the teams that have a big chance to wins. That's why every gamblers will still learns many ways and research to finds what method that will works for them to find the right teams. Some people will check the history of each team that will match, but other people will use different methods because they must search for much information about each teams. But what you are doing can not be said the key to winning because analyzing the match will needs other things to finds the right teams and players. Although your way can be one of the key to wins, that does not means that other methods can not be the other key that gives them wins too.

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Quote from: Mrbluntzy on June 08, 2024, 07:03:26 AM

Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

What matters is how long you have been using the strategy and how often you had success with the strategy, you already said that you have recorded many success with the strategy and other gamblers that have not used the strategy can not really tell more about it, like me, I don't know about it but I know that there are more than two strategy in sport betting. I even guess that every sport gambler has their strategy that is giving them success and some of those strategy are not also working.

If we can't prove that we are profitable in sports betting, then basically what we are doing is just gambling based on luck. Honestly, it's hard to be unrelistic when the record does not prove anything, and in order for that record to be reliable, it should be the result for long term gambling, not only on few months and then conclude that you already found the recipe for success.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

What matters is how long you have been using the strategy and how often you had success with the strategy, you already said that you have recorded many success with the strategy and other gamblers that have not used the strategy can not really tell more about it, like me, I don't know about it but I know that there are more than two strategy in sport betting. I even guess that every sport gambler has their strategy that is giving them success and some of those strategy are not also working.

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This is more or less like gut feeling? Or perhaps you're already familiar with the games, the teams, the players, and their plays that you'd be confused how certain betting lines turn out that way? I also have this confusion sometimes. But rather than interpreting the odds as overvalued or undervalued, I'd try to understand why because, for me, there must be a reason.

I don't know with others but I also have this tendency to guess the odds in certain matches. Sometimes, I'm surprised how my own predictions are too far from the odds released in the market. But I don't insist with my own analysis. More often, I just wonder what I missed. I don't conclude right away that these or those lines are overvalued or undervalued.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

Lately, I've been using a simple strategy in sports betting by spotting lines that are overvalued or undervalued, which could easily attract public bets. Based on my record, I've had some success using this strategy. I realize that looking at stats alone to determine which team is better will not work. As gamblers, we have to do what others are not doing. A typical gambler will just look at the stats to determine the better team; they don't complicate things or consider other factors, which sometimes leads them to fall into traps.

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

This is an interesting and very profitable strategy, but very risky.
We know that sports betting pays very little, but the reason for this is justified by the fact that they are "quite predictable" compared to gambling in general, as a consequence, the houses reduce the reward for the one who statistically should win, and for " make the situation worse" we have many players who also bet mainly in favor of these statistics, and if on the other side of the bet there are few players betting on the unlikely, then the reward for the vast majority who bet on the statistics will in fact be small.

But, a smart or lucky bet on the "wrong side" will consequently yield a very generous prize. The problem is knowing how to identify these scenarios and bet at the right time.

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Quote from: wheelz1200 on June 07, 2024, 04:11:11 PM

Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

Lately, I've been using a simple strategy in sports betting by spotting lines that are overvalued or undervalued, which could easily attract public bets. Based on my record, I've had some success using this strategy. I realize that looking at stats alone to determine which team is better will not work. As gamblers, we have to do what others are not doing. A typical gambler will just look at the stats to determine the better team; they don't complicate things or consider other factors, which sometimes leads them to fall into traps.

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

The way I handle this is by setting my own lines in my head before I look. Usually it's in and around that and can spot my own personal value. If the lines are way off +/- a certain percentage then I stay away from that game. Likely there is something going on I'm not aware about that will alter the game. That's how I deal with trap betting

That's a good strategy too. You don't force yourself to bet on a game that you're not confident in. My main goal is to determine the most popular game on the board and evaluate if the line is correct according to my judgment. If I see one side is off, I'll usually bet on the correct side. Of course, it does not give me a right bet all the time, but most of the time is fine, and with that, I should not frustrate myself. I deal with it using the right bankroll management.

I'd really like to emphasize how we should stay disciplined in managing our bankroll because if not, it would leave us frustrated during a losing streak, which could result in wiping out the entire balance. We don't want to experience that, so we need to take it slow and be consistent.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

Lately, I've been using a simple strategy in sports betting by spotting lines that are overvalued or undervalued, which could easily attract public bets. Based on my record, I've had some success using this strategy. I realize that looking at stats alone to determine which team is better will not work. As gamblers, we have to do what others are not doing. A typical gambler will just look at the stats to determine the better team; they don't complicate things or consider other factors, which sometimes leads them to fall into traps.

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

Some of these statistics especially those given by the casinos are sometimes traps because they will give you the information that will make you believe it's actually okey picking a particular team as the winners and foolish picking another as the losers and this is usually reflected in the statistics provided by these casinos, most times it's just okay to even go against the Information provided and just maybe you could turn out lucky with the results you will get at the end of the games.

You are quite rational with your taughts and I don't see it as overthinking, this is what happens almost everyday at the casinos and it takes only a very careful mind to get to see the logic and understand what is going on behind the statistics they are been provide with as at the time the statistics was added and they are about to make a prediction.

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I actually make my own odds based on h2h games , players , current standings and coach experience and after that I place a bet. Usually in this way you can catch higher odds and you will find yourself picking 5+odds instead of going for a "save" 1.23 odds. However , this won't work anytime because bookies know well how to make odds but there are traps in almost every sports category and you can find traps daily if you have the time to search for them.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

Lately, I've been using a simple strategy in sports betting by spotting lines that are overvalued or undervalued, which could easily attract public bets. Based on my record, I've had some success using this strategy. I realize that looking at stats alone to determine which team is better will not work. As gamblers, we have to do what others are not doing. A typical gambler will just look at the stats to determine the better team; they don't complicate things or consider other factors, which sometimes leads them to fall into traps.

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

The way I handle this is by setting my own lines in my head before I look. Usually it's in and around that and can spot my own personal value. If the lines are way off +/- a certain percentage then I stay away from that game. Likely there is something going on I'm not aware about that will alter the game. That's how I deal with trap betting

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Sports betting is cool and one of my favorites, although winning your bet is still based on luck. If you apply a certain strategy, you will definitely not lose completely all the time but will regularly win your bet most of the time. We know that there is no way someone can keep winning in gambling every day and every time, but if you have some good sports knowledge and derive some strategies, you will be lucky more regularly than someone who doesn't even have good knowledge about sports.

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Quote from: Japinat on June 05, 2024, 07:54:38 AM

Say we have 2 teams in the NBA finals.

The current betting line now or point spread is

Dallas +6.5
Celtics -6.5

IMO, if I look at that line, that +6.5 might be a trap as it could easily attract public bets since Dallas are hot right now after they defeated the Wolves in a 4-1 series score. So in order for me to not fall into that trap, I might just bet on the other side which is the Celtics -6.5. However, as I was saying, I can only conclude if its a trap after the game is over.

Indeed, it was a trap. It looked like everyone was backing Dallas to cover the handicap, but it resulted in an easy dominant win by the Celtics. Game 2 could be different, though, as I don't see Dallas getting dominated again. Just like I've seen in the past, it's good to back a team that lost by a huge margin in the previous game, as they'll likely bounce back or at least make it a close game and cover the handicap.

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Quote from: Russlenat on June 06, 2024, 08:11:55 AM

Quote from: Questat on June 06, 2024, 05:16:58 AM

Definitely it's a trap for those who are aggressive in betting without even investigating while the line looks unsual. And honestly, that cashout thing in a casino is not too useful for me, because even if the line does look like it's not gonna hit, it also does not guarantee that we will win, so cashing out with a loss is already a loss.

It doesn't matter if your bet wins or loses, but if you're not confident with your bet, you can use the cashout option from the sportsbook to minimize your loss. Sometimes we make mistakes, and rather than losing it all, it's better to minimize the loss. If we don't cash out, we end up relying on luck instead of our skills in analyzing the game. Even if we win, it doesn't fully satisfy us because only winning through careful analysis is truly gratifying for bettors.

Who agrees with me?

That's another option, and it depends on the gambler's perspective. But for me, I prefer not to put much emotion into my betting and focus on playing with the numbers, if you know what I mean. Mistakes like this don't happen all the time, so it's sometimes okay to let it go and see if it results in a win. At the end of the day, if we want to make betting a long-term activity, we should learn how to manage our bankroll effectively and treat it as important funds that need to last.

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Quote from: Questat on June 06, 2024, 05:16:58 AM

Definitely it's a trap for those who are aggressive in betting without even investigating while the line looks unsual. And honestly, that cashout thing in a casino is not too useful for me, because even if the line does look like it's not gonna hit, it also does not guarantee that we will win, so cashing out with a loss is already a loss.

It doesn't matter if your bet wins or loses, but if you're not confident with your bet, you can use the cashout option from the sportsbook to minimize your loss. Sometimes we make mistakes, and rather than losing it all, it's better to minimize the loss. If we don't cash out, we end up relying on luck instead of our skills in analyzing the game. Even if we win, it doesn't fully satisfy us because only winning through careful analysis is truly gratifying for bettors.

Who agrees with me?

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Quote from: dimonstration on June 06, 2024, 04:43:04 AM

Quote from: OgNasty on June 06, 2024, 12:09:13 AM

Whenever I’m sports betting and the line looks off to me I usually start researching why that is. Most of the time it’s a star player out with an illness or family emergency, etc. I’ve been guilty in the past of just taking the bet and thinking I got a deal only to find out later that I didn’t know something. So if something looks off, find out why.

I’m a victim of this many time when betting prematch in advance. Casino suddenly increased/decreased odds on the day match begins. This happened frequently on NBA since some team delay the announcement of injury report because they are maximizing time to check before the player can still play or not.

To prevent ourselves on making mistake, we should not bet early, wait maybe 15 minutes before the game as the line will not likely move anymore. Research on the injury reports or rumors is easy nowadays, but we have to confirm it before placing a bet.

Quote from: dimonstration on June 06, 2024, 04:43:04 AM

But this kind of betting offer is not a trap imho. It’s just look like a trap if a bettor is like us that is lazy to check and just looking on the odds offer by the sportsbook.

We are lucky that cashout was already introduced now because in old days, bet hedging is the only option.

Definitely it's a trap for those who are aggressive in betting without even investigating while the line looks unsual. And honestly, that cashout thing in a casino is not too useful for me, because even if the line does look like it's not gonna hit, it also does not guarantee that we will win, so cashing out with a loss is already a loss.

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Quote from: OgNasty on June 06, 2024, 12:09:13 AM

Whenever I’m sports betting and the line looks off to me I usually start researching why that is. Most of the time it’s a star player out with an illness or family emergency, etc. I’ve been guilty in the past of just taking the bet and thinking I got a deal only to find out later that I didn’t know something. So if something looks off, find out why.

I’m a victim of this many time when betting prematch in advance. Casino suddenly increased/decreased odds on the day match begins. This happened frequently on NBA since some team delay the announcement of injury report because they are maximizing time to check before the player can still play or not.

But this kind of betting offer is not a trap imho. It’s just look like a trap if a bettor is like us that is lazy to check and just looking on the odds offer by the sportsbook.

We are lucky that cashout was already introduced now because in old days, bet hedging is the only option.

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Quote from: Davidvictorson on June 05, 2024, 06:48:18 AM

Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

Lately, I've been using a simple strategy in sports betting by spotting lines that are overvalued or undervalued, which could easily attract public bets.

Isn't this the same as contrarian Indicators where your bets are against the public?

Sort of, but not totally a full fade the public strategy as sometimes the public bets win.
In betting, I don't need to bet on all available games on the board, I just select a game that is more popular than the other as that will attract a lot of bets, and that way, and most importantly, if the line is quite suspicious that it would easily attract public bets, I would go on the other side.

I'm not saying that this strategy work all the time, it doesn't work in gambling, right? What I observe with this is that it work most of the time, and that's all I need, and together with a good bankroll management, I guess I will be profitable in the long run.

Quote from: Davidvictorson on June 05, 2024, 06:48:18 AM

Quote

Based on my record, I've had some success using this strategy. I realize that looking at stats alone to determine which team is better will not work. As gamblers, we have to do what others are not doing. A typical gambler will just look at the stats to determine the better team; they don't complicate things or consider other factors, which sometimes leads them to fall into traps.

It's good that you have records on this strategy and that you can conclude that it works. So if anyone is looking for something new to try out, they can just use this as evidence. And truly, a gambler has to do what others aren't willing to do, it will require thorough research and it takes a lot of time that's why I think most of us just look at the stats and then place our bets.

Record is necessary if we like to be updated with our performance, and this record should be free from bias, that we will right the correct result and compute the real percentage of winning. As long as I'm at 55%, I think that's already a great percent to maintain.

Quote from: Davidvictorson on June 05, 2024, 06:48:18 AM

Quote

So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

This doesn't look like over thinking to me. How can you be wrong about it when you have your records. What I will added is that one must be flexible about this too. If there research turns out to be that spotting overvalued or undervalued lines may not work, then they should place their bets based off on what works which is their findings.

I feel a bit of that since I'm still new to this, I think I need more time to really determine if the strategy is working, if not then I'm just overthinking. LOL

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Quote from: YOSHIE on June 05, 2024, 07:43:54 AM

I rarely gamble on sports by determining teams that often spread points, I prefer to bet on sports by determining the score or the player who scores the most goals.

That's what I do in sports betting, looking at the H2H stats if the previous few games they often scored against each other then it's better to bet both teams score, this allows us to win the bet.
Although there are other betting options with handicaps.

Quote from: YOSHIE on June 05, 2024, 07:43:54 AM

The line betting method is too complicated for me, maybe if you are good at sports betting, maybe it's good enough for you to do it, maybe the quote above can provide a little winning point for line betting by judging.

I don't really understand line betting, it's something I haven't covered before, yes I just bet in general but with that always look for odds above @1.50.

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Quote from: CODE200 on June 05, 2024, 06:42:06 AM

Quote from: bittraffic on June 05, 2024, 05:57:44 AM

Damn! that's a slick skill you have there. Grin

So you mean you are just Jonah Hill in the Money Ball movie who looks at the stats and determines skills and which team?

I bet on some upsets as well, didn't turn out well for me. I have some kind of comparison to some players but depends on which sports we are up to.

I guess you're right, my first thought about this was Rain Man but it seems apt that it's Money Ball. I mean there's probably a consistency in terms of how some players do their thing, you can track them really easy and if you've got the time to analyze a lot of factors, you can easily do it, what I mean by many factors is that you need to consider also how players do during a certain time in the game, the way they synergize with other players is also a big factor, there's so many that it will hurt your brain if you're not good at it.

You'd be a great bettor when you see some skills that are overlooked at some point and when deployed correctly you can see the game can overturn. Sadly as just as gamblers we have zero chance to decide which players can play in the first quarter to the last. The only we can bet on is team vs team. But this kind of skill must be useful in analyzing Boxing or MMA, maybe you can even predict how the fight will play out or which round the fight will end.

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Whenever I’m sports betting and the line looks off to me I usually start researching why that is. Most of the time it’s a star player out with an illness or family emergency, etc. I’ve been guilty in the past of just taking the bet and thinking I got a deal only to find out later that I didn’t know something. So if something looks off, find out why.

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I'm doing something similar, I usually check the opening and current odds to see if there's any line movement, then look up which side the public is on because you sometimes see a lot of bets going through on one side and there's still no movement.

The Dallas/Celtics market that Japinat mentioned is a good example, I remember checking one of the betting bots in our group and it said around 80% of bets are placed on Dallas, but the spread isn't going down anytime soon.

Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

It goes both ways, regardless of the line looking like a trap you could be missing out on an easy win. Sometimes, we think that getting the best line should translate to a free win, but we forget that it's always easy for a team to crumble on a good day and ruin your bet at the end.

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I agree that stats are crucial, and analyzing recent matches, head-to-head records, and player availability is essential. However, I believe that just focusing on these aspects might not give us the full picture. Sometimes, the line itself can reveal hidden insights. For instance, if a line seems too good to be true, it might be worth investigating further to see if it's a trap.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

You are right and wrong because at the same time, you would still base your winning on luck which even if you put all of your efforts in picking your game based on the teams historical and future influences, there would be no assurance that your efforts would bring you forth winning.

I understand your notion on one aspect which is to say... Sometimes it feels crazy lucky that when you compromises your predicted teams to win and then pick the underated team which by your mind, they are potential to loose, such potential loosing teams are sometimes the team to win. All these strategies are still based on luck.

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If your strategy is viable, you should probably do a data gathering or at the least, list your wins to see if what you're doing is really viable, I can already see where you're getting at, I mean looking at a player's statistics will really help you understand whether they can help you decide which team to put your money into. Really nice of you to share your way of winning bets, if it were some people (including me), I'd definitely not share it especially if it helps me make more money than I should in gambling.

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Quote from: Eternad on June 05, 2024, 07:15:07 AM

Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

I don’t believe that there’s really a trap line. Sportsbook already have their profit by providing bets with house edge especially on lower leagues which the house edge is very.

Bookmaker is not perfect which is the reason why there are some error on odds placement but that doesn’t mean they want to trap players. Players is just the one assuming it because they are typically suspicious on every bets due to the risk involved.

Odds provider doesn’t need trap lines just to get profit since they are relying on the house edge which is fixed per match.

I agree with you that looking at the line will not change anything or make you win often, because no matter how you gamble with different strategies and stats the house hedge or bookie will always win. It is good that we don't start going too far looking for strategies to enable us make profit in gamble, because if it is not your lucky day you will lose that bet.

It is not that I am against the OP, but it might become a problem that if you are too serious with this strategy, you might end up losing big, because you will have too much confidence in yourself and bet with a huge amount of money, since profit is what you are doing it for.

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Any strategy in sports betting is better than relying on luck, but for someone who wants to improve his chances of winning more than losing, he needs to study much more than raw statistics. When I was betting seriously, I always looked for specific matches not only based on statistics, but much more on the condition of the players and their motivation in a certain match in relation to the opposing team.

Such things require a lot of time and filtering of matches, but when you find events in which you can predict the outcome with relative certainty and if your bank can handle a bigger bet, then you have a chance to come out as winners. Of course, you should not limit yourself only to the outcome of the matches in the sense of 1x2, but you should bet on the options of total goals, options to score/not score a goal, the team's goal in both halves and similar.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

I don’t even understand what you mean by looking at the line

No matter what you do or how good you are and how well you look at the line it doesn’t guarantee 100% profit i am sure, it can only increase your chances of winning. I would have try to learn and understand your strategy of picking the best bet but i am not the type that like being too serious and sensitive with my bets, when i am being too careful in picking bets that’s even when i end up losing my bets so i prefer being casual and not get too serious when i bet.

When selecting a game i look at the statistics of each team, how well they have being playing in recent games also i look at the head to head, how they perform when they face each other and some few other factors. I don’t take it too seriously as i believe gambling is a game of luck.

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For those who often bet on football, Im sure you guys ever seen markets that could be said to be abnormal but I dont think its right to call it a trap line.
Because even without cheating - in the end the bookie will always win, but I do agree that sometimes bookmakers provide a strange odds as if they already know the final result.
For example, in the Europa League final last month I posted about this before the match started

Quote from: Sunderland on May 22, 2024, 10:26:44 AM

UEFA Europa League final today, kinda surprised to see the odds for Leverkusen is still 1.80x considering they are still unbeaten in this season.
I guess the odds for Leverkusen will only range between 1.5x to 1.6x, 1.8x is quite big considering they are the favorite to win the Europa League this season.

I also thought that Leverkusen would win easily against Atalanta, but after checking the odds - I think this match could end in a draw (normal time).

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Quote from: Gozie51 on June 05, 2024, 07:46:11 AM

Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise.

Like what do you really mean by line, do you mean line up? If that's what you mean, I don't think that is enough to bet and win a match. Stats are important, head 2 head too and current fitness are what can give you possible winning if the house edge doesn't over power your analysis. As to odds and bookmarkers, it can be deceptive. Odds are not what determines winning though lower odds sometimes too matters. Overall, I don't see how you can determine you are in a trap until the game is over. Every bet is a potential winning bet until FT.

He did replied with a definition of line, a regular sports bettor would easily understand what line is.

I guess we must get used to the terminologies being used in sports betting.
Maybe we can read some from this article. https://www.si.com/betting/2020/05/13/sports-betting-terms-definitions-gambling

For me, a word trap is definitely defending on our own understanding, as "trap" means a realization after a bet is loss. So for a gambler not to fall into the trap, they should analyze the line very well and pick those teams that he think would cover the spread.

Say we have 2 teams in the NBA finals.

The current betting line now or point spread is

Dallas +6.5
Celtics -6.5

IMO, if I look at that line, that +6.5 might be a trap as it could easily attract public bets since Dallas are hot right now after they defeated the Wolves in a 4-1 series score. So in order for me to not fall into that trap, I might just bet on the other side which is the Celtics -6.5. However, as I was saying, I can only conclude if its a trap after the game is over.

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You are not overthinking, you probably spot the lines that are traps.

I think I was replied to more than once in the NBA betting thread about a line being a trap and they were correct when they spotted it, most of the time. Sometimes it is obvious, sometimes they are not. When an offer is too good to be true, it's probably a trap too. Let's say a weak team was given +20 and we think they could cover that, but when we watch the game, the other team will finish it with a lead of 30-40+ which means we lose.
For a new sports gambler, it may not be easy to tell if the line is wrong but with experience, they will probably see through it.
The hardest part of the offers is if you become emotional with the game, yeah, the example would be being a fan of the player or the team.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise.

Like what do you really mean by line, do you mean line up? If that's what you mean, I don't think that is enough to bet and win a match. Stats are important, head 2 head too and current fitness are what can give you possible winning if the house edge doesn't over power your analysis. As to odds and bookmarkers, it can be deceptive. Odds are not what determines winning though lower odds sometimes too matters. Overall, I don't see how you can determine you are in a trap until the game is over. Every bet is a potential winning bet until FT.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

If by the term 'line' you mean your opportunity to determine or spread points, to be honest I rarely place sports bets on the lines you mean, I rarely gamble on sports by determining teams that often spread points, I prefer to bet on sports by determining the score or the player who scores the most goals.

If this is what you mean.

Quote

When looking at the lines, it is important to know that the team with a negative point spread is always the favorite. The favorite can win the game but not cover the difference, which will only make you lose.

For example, the San Antonio Spurs are playing at home and are favored by 15 points against the visiting New York Knicks. You would read the lines as San Antonio -15 and Knicks +15. meaning if you bet on the Spurs, they have to win the game by more than 15 points for your ticket to be judged a winner. The same goes for any bet on the Knicks – anything other than a loss of 16 points or more will give Knicks bettors a winning ticket. If the Spurs win by exactly 15 points, the bet is graded as a "push" and both Spurs and Knicks bettors will get their money back.

The line betting method is too complicated for me, maybe if you are good at sports betting, maybe it's good enough for you to do it, maybe the quote above can provide a little winning point for line betting by judging.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

I don’t believe that there’s really a trap line. Sportsbook already have their profit by providing bets with house edge especially on lower leagues which the house edge is very.

Bookmaker is not perfect which is the reason why there are some error on odds placement but that doesn’t mean they want to trap players. Players is just the one assuming it because they are typically suspicious on every bets due to the risk involved.

Odds provider doesn’t need trap lines just to get profit since they are relying on the house edge which is fixed per match.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

Lately, I've been using a simple strategy in sports betting by spotting lines that are overvalued or undervalued, which could easily attract public bets. Based on my record, I've had some success using this strategy. I realize that looking at stats alone to determine which team is better will not work. As gamblers, we have to do what others are not doing. A typical gambler will just look at the stats to determine the better team; they don't complicate things or consider other factors, which sometimes leads them to fall into traps.

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

I don't think that odd makers are putting a trap for us, it's that the line could have been very close and it's going to be 50/50 no matter how you look at it. We shouldn't over complicated things as a gambler because if we did, we might have to look at a lot of factors before betting and so it might lead to losses if we will overthink.

I mean in sports betting it's only two teams that we are going to bet, and if we see the ML is not that attractive then look at the handicap and other betting options. The problem sometimes is that if we don't like the odds for the favorite, we look for other betting options that is appealing but we all know that the risk is going to be too high for that bet and the chance to lose is high.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

Lately, I've been using a simple strategy in sports betting by spotting lines that are overvalued or undervalued, which could easily attract public bets.

Isn't this the same as contrarian Indicators where your bets are against the public?

Quote

Based on my record, I've had some success using this strategy. I realize that looking at stats alone to determine which team is better will not work. As gamblers, we have to do what others are not doing. A typical gambler will just look at the stats to determine the better team; they don't complicate things or consider other factors, which sometimes leads them to fall into traps.

It's good that you have records on this strategy and that you can conclude that it works. So if anyone is looking for something new to try out, they can just use this as evidence. And truly, a gambler has to do what others aren't willing to do, it will require thorough research and it takes a lot of time that's why I think most of us just look at the stats and then place our bets.

Quote

So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

This doesn't look like over thinking to me. How can you be wrong about it when you have your records. What I will added is that one must be flexible about this too. If there research turns out to be that spotting overvalued or undervalued lines may not work, then they should place their bets based off on what works which is their findings.

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Quote from: bittraffic on June 05, 2024, 05:57:44 AM

Damn! that's a slick skill you have there. Grin

So you mean you are just Jonah Hill in the Money Ball movie who looks at the stats and determines skills and which team?

I bet on some upsets as well, didn't turn out well for me. I have some kind of comparison to some players but depends on which sports we are up to.

I guess you're right, my first thought about this was Rain Man but it seems apt that it's Money Ball. I mean there's probably a consistency in terms of how some players do their thing, you can track them really easy and if you've got the time to analyze a lot of factors, you can easily do it, what I mean by many factors is that you need to consider also how players do during a certain time in the game, the way they synergize with other players is also a big factor, there's so many that it will hurt your brain if you're not good at it.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

I was trying to figure out were the concept of drawing of line comes into play in your analysis but can't seems to find one. Before placing any bet in sports gambling I guess you should already have been familiar with the individual strength of the teams involved and apart from leagues that aren't popular, you don't have to bother yourself about statistics before knowing the team that has the highest chance of winning. Checking out for stats and or even going through sports prediction platform to check thier prediction on some games is just an additional way of checking what people think about some certain match but the bigger responsibility is left for you to do the analysis on your own and make the decision as to which team you're betting in Thier favour.

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Damn! that's a slick skill you have there. Grin

So you mean you are just Jonah Hill in the Money Ball movie who looks at the stats and determines skills and which team?

I bet on some upsets as well, didn't turn out well for me. I have some kind of comparison to some players but depends on which sports we are up to.

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Quote from: Charles-Tim on June 05, 2024, 05:07:23 AM

What do you mean by looking at the line?

here ; https://www.thegistsports.com/faq/sports-betting/

Quote from: Charles-Tim on June 05, 2024, 05:07:23 AM

I prefer to check some last matches of the clubs or team that are playing and also check their h2h. These help a lot. But I do not just bet like that because I still also let the match get close to the time it would begin and check the players that will play in the match.

This is pretty a basic thing to do, everyone who are betting in sports should check the "stats" I'm talking, this one you mentioned is part of the stats.

What I'm trying to discuss here is looking at the line and determining if the line is overvalued or undervalued, that's when you analyze and come up with a decision on that, of course stats are also part of the factors needed for sports handicapping but I think it's just a small part.

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What do you mean by looking at the line?

I prefer to check some last matches of the clubs or team that are playing and also check their h2h. These help a lot. But I do not just bet like that because I still also let the match get close to the time it would begin and check the players that will play in the match.

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Lately, I've been using a simple strategy in sports betting by spotting lines that are overvalued or undervalued, which could easily attract public bets. Based on my record, I've had some success using this strategy. I realize that looking at stats alone to determine which team is better will not work. As gamblers, we have to do what others are not doing. A typical gambler will just look at the stats to determine the better team; they don't complicate things or consider other factors, which sometimes leads them to fall into traps.

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

Topic: Sports betting - How to determine if the line is a trap? (Read 397 times)