Sports betting Strategy -> Betting early vs. late

Wendigo

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First off, Keylor Navas is a Costa Rican and as such plays for the Costs Rica national football team. He is not from Croatia and definitely wouldn't be allowed to play for their national team, dude Grin

Secondly, odds tend to change more rapidly closer to the start of the match when the majority of the players are getting their bets in. So, sometimes, it's better to get your bets in very early in order to catch better odds on the favorites for example. Alternatively, wait a little bit more to get better odds on the underdogs Wink

Hazaki

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Whether it is an early or a late gamble , things won't drastically change .
Furthermore , online betting platforms don't display the odds to bet on of the majority of games until it's 5 or 4 days to the due date , and the teams aren't likely to have any games in that time lapse which will minimize the risk of injuries and last minute changements .
This tho can happen in some games especially the WORLD : Club Friendly games and we have seen that the strategy and the line up of some teams can fully change because of one single injuriy since National teams haven't their full lineups and especially no substitutes .

Speaking more of the WORLD : Club Friendly , betting on such games can be very remunerating and my strategy is to always bet on the weaker teams since they tend to seem good teams because all of the good teams are just trying new strategies in such friendly games and such strategies could be a mess and lead to their loss , but it's a friendly game so who cares ..
Tunisia won 1-0 against Croatia yesterday (Croatia's goalkeeper is Kaylor Navas of Real Madrid ) and no one thought that his team will loose especially that most of it's players play in good European leagues .

milewilda

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Quote from: Zlatna Kopa4ka on March 28, 2018, 12:48:17 PM

I always bet early, before the games start. I like to have a good time of thinking about the games that I want to bet on. Which players are absent, the form of the players etc. I used to bet live on sports back in the day and I was pretty successful to be honest I think I've won more than lost. I recommend if you're planning to bet live go for basketball on points for plus or minus.

We do have the same recommendation when going live.I do always prefer to bet on basketball points +/- but i have done this kind of betting when im rushing up but overall i also made early bets before the start of the game, you can really make analysis towards the game. Winning chances might not be an assurance but important thing we are on positive.

Zlatna Kopa4ka

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I always bet early, before the games start. I like to have a good time of thinking about the games that I want to bet on. Which players are absent, the form of the players etc. I used to bet live on sports back in the day and I was pretty successful to be honest I think I've won more than lost. I recommend if you're planning to bet live go for basketball on points for plus or minus.

SyGambler

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guess who's back

I use both cause you need to keep an eye on the markets early and before the games start
doing this you will be able to hunt good value for your betting in the long run , I take degenbet signals as an example where sometimes he gives picks for matches that will start after 5-10 days where he thinks that the odds will drop in the coming days , and so far he was right about that
so catching the higher odds early will either lock you more value or you can simple arbitrage the other side in case you want a sure bet

same case for pre live events where the odds sometimes jump and you may get a good value but for me early bets have been doing better

hacekd

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Quote from: Caladonian on February 27, 2018, 09:44:49 PM

I play both when I have some time to monitor the game, I do use sportbet as they offering live games, I think what is good with live games is you can
assess the players and the team's performances, though odds really change a lot, unlike with early bets where if you are lucky to pick the best one
you will be able to win much bigger but risk also much higher as factors that influence the results still unknown.

actually there is no problem we will place a bet at the beginning or at the end, both equally beneficial and disadvantageous, better than the beginning because we can see the movement of the opponent, unlike at the end of the risk we rely more on luck

crwth

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https://linktr.ee/crwthopia

I have experienced many times I haven't locked in my bet because it's too late and it should be a sure win. I think that's okay because you could really make it up for another bet if you analyze it perfectly then go get it.

reactorjuno

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I cannot remember if it was shared before but this article published at Pinnacle.com is spot on > https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/beating-closing-line-profit-expectation/Y3U2RWVK4HCW76XU?dvc=d&utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=link-test

Basically, like said earlier, you NEED to bet early, the closing line is very accurate compared to the opening odds.

Arian247

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Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 27, 2018, 01:19:14 PM

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

As a punter I love placing my bets early because it gives me enough time to analyze the games I want to bet on. I only play live games when I want to make some quick cash. Here are two sites which will be helpful
Scoresway.com this site has a complete h2h analysis of all sports and www.progsport.com a free prediction site with 80% accuracy. I hope this help

Juggy777

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Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 27, 2018, 01:19:14 PM

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

I would never fix my bet early as there could be repercussions maybe the star players could not even be in the star line or they could get injured. I prefer to read the tempo of the game before I begin.

It's a stupid bet to actually go fully it's like a murder of your money cause you'll definitely loose so my advise is not to do it. Be safe and smart with your money.

Bitinity

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Quote from: bitcoinmaster44 on March 02, 2018, 05:55:05 AM

In mutual betting system like on OneHash - it's better to bet just before the game

Why it is better to bet just before the game starts on parimutuel betting system while the odds keeps changing till the pool is closed? You cant make sure that you will be the last bet on the pool so one bet after you may change the odds significantly.
Maybe it is because I prefer to bet on fixed odds, no matter pre-match bet or live bet. Fixed odds is still the most favorite system in sports betting imho, that's why it is hard for onehash to compete with other sports betting sites.

A Confused Shoe

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Quote from: reactorjuno on March 02, 2018, 09:03:31 PM

Most bookmakers wait for Pinnacle to open their lines. Once Pinnacle have opened their lines, the sharpest punters will correct the wrong prices by betting on them (it usually takes a few minutes only, they are "professionals" after all). Once the lines are corrected to a more accurate prices, the rest of the industry will open the lines at a similar price to Pinnacle (but adding a bigger margin).

The only bookmakers I know which open the lines before Pinnacle, are Marathonbet and 1xbet, they offer crazy value early on but will limit your accounts very quickly if you win (Marathonbet do pay the winners though, but I would never recommend 1xbet, they will do their best not to pay you, absolutely not to be trusted).

Didn't realize that other sportsbooks waited for Pinnacle to open their lines. Makes sense now as I always hear about other people comparing/modeling their data in regards to Pinnacle's lines -> they must have some of the most accurate ones overall. Thanks for sharing.

And that picture you showed, lol. Yeah, people are all over those lines within MINUTES.

bering

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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

i have been experience bets early and bets late while watching live matches but if i have to compare the results of my sport betting my early bets pretty much better rather than bets late but sometimes indeed depend on the situations on the particular matches however i more confident to bets early for sport betting

reactorjuno

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Check this picture guys > https://image.ibb.co/kJduJS/picture.jpg
Well here there is inside information surely.

creeps

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Quote from: bitcoinmaster44 on March 02, 2018, 05:55:05 AM

In mutual betting system like on OneHash - it's better to bet just before the game

Well its depend on circumstances like that but for me betting late are quiet better because you can still make your analysis if your team will won on their next game. Though its hard to bet late specially in real life because people might not accept your bet because the team your betting is about to win.

chris200x9

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Quote from: michkima on March 02, 2018, 06:28:24 AM

Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 27, 2018, 01:19:14 PM

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

Sometimes you can get a good opportunity when you bet early since the lines don't really reflect the most possible outcome of the game, which you can easily detect if you analyze the game pretty well. However, problem is you might end up at the losing end on that bet since you can bet at worse lines than if you just waited. Guess there is always an advantage or disadvantage to everything.

That is the risk one needs to take if they want a better odds in sports betting and winning chances are almost equal. But for this kind of betting you should know both players or teams very well and their recent performance then you can make a better judgment to pick the team to bet before the match start. You may have a better chance to win the bet if you bet during a live match but odds on winning team will not that be great during a live match.

KorakPawon

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Bet on a Clear and Rational Mind

In betting in playing sports betting it is very necessary to have a clear mind and rationality in installing any bet, because if you place a bet involving emotions then surely you will experience defeat and loss because you will no longer refer to sports betting tips and sportsbook gambling information and the data you earn to place a bet, let alone the team that will compete is your favorite team and your pet.

You have to stay rational to be able to reap huge profits in the game, not just because your favorite team plays you to place bets on your favorite team by putting aside the data and information you have got.

reactorjuno

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Quote from: audaciousbeing on March 02, 2018, 07:10:54 AM

Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 27, 2018, 01:19:14 PM

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

I believe its really not the about betting time whether late or early by the bettor but the time allowed by the gambling site one is placing the bets. I have been involved in trying several times to bet on games as early as 2 hours before start time and its already close some big games close earlier than that this could be times where I didn't know such match will happen or I was busy and could not place the bet early enough.

Other sites would even change the odds as the time to begin the match approaches which I also believe is a means to reduce the chances of bettor winning as much as possible from the house. In summary, your winning with strategies either late or early is dependent on how the betting house wants to allow it.

Most bookmakers wait for Pinnacle to open their lines. Once Pinnacle have opened their lines, the sharpest punters will correct the wrong prices by betting on them (it usually takes a few minutes only, they are "professionals" after all). Once the lines are corrected to a more accurate prices, the rest of the industry will open the lines at a similar price to Pinnacle (but adding a bigger margin).

The only bookmakers I know which open the lines before Pinnacle, are Marathonbet and 1xbet, they offer crazy value early on but will limit your accounts very quickly if you win (Marathonbet do pay the winners though, but I would never recommend 1xbet, they will do their best not to pay you, absolutely not to be trusted).

logicgate

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Quote from: michkima on March 02, 2018, 06:28:24 AM

Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 27, 2018, 01:19:14 PM

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

Sometimes you can get a good opportunity when you bet early since the lines don't really reflect the most possible outcome of the game, which you can easily detect if you analyze the game pretty well. However, problem is you might end up at the losing end on that bet since you can bet at worse lines than if you just waited. Guess there is always an advantage or disadvantage to everything.

Well I think either you bet earlier or later than game, you will not be getting a healthy results. In both cases there is more risk to your amount that is being indulged in betting. Why to go for such option that is at high risk? Don’t you think we must use this handsome amount in suitable manner or any asset like bitocin trading or gold as well, to get a good output from it? You must think.

audaciousbeing

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Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 27, 2018, 01:19:14 PM

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

I believe its really not the about betting time whether late or early by the bettor but the time allowed by the gambling site one is placing the bets. I have been involved in trying several times to bet on games as early as 2 hours before start time and its already close some big games close earlier than that this could be times where I didn't know such match will happen or I was busy and could not place the bet early enough.

Other sites would even change the odds as the time to begin the match approaches which I also believe is a means to reduce the chances of bettor winning as much as possible from the house. In summary, your winning with strategies either late or early is dependent on how the betting house wants to allow it.

michkima

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Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 27, 2018, 01:19:14 PM

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

Sometimes you can get a good opportunity when you bet early since the lines don't really reflect the most possible outcome of the game, which you can easily detect if you analyze the game pretty well. However, problem is you might end up at the losing end on that bet since you can bet at worse lines than if you just waited. Guess there is always an advantage or disadvantage to everything.

bitcoinmaster44

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In mutual betting system like on OneHash - it's better to bet just before the game

A Confused Shoe

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@reactorjuno - thanks for sharing that article. Yeah, betting the closing line in a consistent and significant fashion really isn't that easy to do, haha. Guess that's why most bettors are - ROI over the long-term.

@BoltBrownie - sounds like you are pretty good at live betting. Unfortunately, that really is one of my greatest weaknesses. Any particular strategies you use when betting live that you care to share?

Bolt Brownie

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Quote from: reactorjuno on February 28, 2018, 09:42:24 AM

Quote from: Bolt Brownie on February 28, 2018, 09:26:15 AM

Most of the times I prefer betting close to the start of the game, because I have more reliable information at that time.

Very bad idea.

Value is easier to be found when betting EARLY, simply because less bets have been placed, and therefore the odds are still not close to real probabilities of the different outcomes.

Pinnacle allows VERY HIGH STAKES close to the start of an event for a reason: because they know the lines are very close to the real probabilities of the different possible outcomes, therefore they will make money thanks to the margin applied on each odds.

When I was betting at Pinnacle, I found great value when they open the odds, especially in Davis Cup (tennis) and I remember they allowed me only 400 EUR stakes for one bet, not more until the odds dropped. Actually I could make the odds move by myself just with a bet of 400 EUR. It of course does not happen (on big markets) close to the start of an event.

It's extremely difficult to find a value bet close to the start of the event.

PS: Live betting is only recommended at Betfair Exchange, everywhere else they increase the margin on odds, which makes it impossible to get value.

Thanks for your comment, and it makes perfect sense what you are saying. I do bet at betfair, because like I said I prefer to follow a "traders" approach, intead of a punters approach. In some games I just bet live because I use strategies to trade live markets, where my preferred method is to go live on big tennis matches, and scalp the market. It's been working for me, and that's why I do it.

This is why I never looked to carefully to the differences between the odds, since I always make multiple live bets, to make profit, and I don't need the team I bet to win or lose. Sometimes, specially in tennis matches, I start on one player, and I end up getting more profit if the other player wins, because I made the necessary adjustments after my live analysis.

I will start paying attention though, because I might end up going live already with profit, and that will help me even more.

KorakPawon

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I think that's a very cheating way, but yes if we win we get a little bit different, it's different from the players who come in at the beginning of the game, if we just look for a chance in the middle of the game the chance to get a little money, and we better play from scratch and think smart in following the gambling

izanagi narukami

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Although early provide more odds but it's difficult to predict. But , yes it's just same as high risk high reward gameplay on dice
I'm personally choose the late one because I've made some profit from it ! ( guessing the final result for last world cup and I've made 7x from initial deposit )

Caladonian

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Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 28, 2018, 07:35:58 PM

Quote from: reactorjuno on February 28, 2018, 09:42:24 AM

Very bad idea.

Value is easier to be found when betting EARLY, simply because less bets have been placed, and therefore the odds are still not close to real probabilities of the different outcomes.

Pinnacle allows VERY HIGH STAKES close to the start of an event for a reason: because they know the lines are very close to the real probabilities of the different possible outcomes, therefore they will make money thanks to the margin applied on each odds.

When I was betting at Pinnacle, I found great value when they open the odds, especially in Davis Cup (tennis) and I remember they allowed me only 400 EUR stakes for one bet, not more until the odds dropped. Actually I could make the odds move by myself just with a bet of 400 EUR. It of course does not happen (on big markets) close to the start of an event.

It's extremely difficult to find a value bet close to the start of the event.

PS: Live betting is only recommended at Betfair Exchange, everywhere else they increase the margin on odds, which makes it impossible to get value.

To be honest, I think ReactorJuno hit the nail on the head. While ROI is probably the most effective marker of a bettor's long-term success, something that is often overlooked in our results-oriented mindset is that successful bettors in general CONSISTENTLY beat the closing odds, and that is something you can only do when you bet early. By the time the game starts, the closing line is the most ACCURATE line (factoring in lineups/injuries, volume and amount of bets from all others, etc), but if you can beat that line consistently, that is a good sign.

You won't ALWAYS beat it and sometimes you may unfortunately lock in a worse line (e.g. you take HOU -5.5 in NBA early on and then Harden randomly gets ruled out so it closes at HOU -2.5), but if with your modeling/knowledge of a particular sport you can identify which lines have value and bet them before they shift to the closing line, that is the mark of a long-term successful bettor.

I'm really not a strong math/stats person, but someone referenced me these articles from Pinnacle that I find pretty informative, hope you do as well:

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/what-distinguishes-winning-from-losing-players/6BT2G5BMD43MYSKT
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/beating-closing-line-profit-expectation/Y3U2RWVK4HCW76XU

Thanks for sharing this reference as it is a good tool to read and understand the importance of having knowledge to have some edge inside the sports house. With this information, we will be able to analyze and find interesting matches that will lead us to earn little, and together with luck, I guess
chances are much higher than without any knowledge and just betting with our instincts to win.

reactorjuno

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Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 28, 2018, 07:35:58 PM

Quote from: reactorjuno on February 28, 2018, 09:42:24 AM

Very bad idea.

Value is easier to be found when betting EARLY, simply because less bets have been placed, and therefore the odds are still not close to real probabilities of the different outcomes.

Pinnacle allows VERY HIGH STAKES close to the start of an event for a reason: because they know the lines are very close to the real probabilities of the different possible outcomes, therefore they will make money thanks to the margin applied on each odds.

When I was betting at Pinnacle, I found great value when they open the odds, especially in Davis Cup (tennis) and I remember they allowed me only 400 EUR stakes for one bet, not more until the odds dropped. Actually I could make the odds move by myself just with a bet of 400 EUR. It of course does not happen (on big markets) close to the start of an event.

It's extremely difficult to find a value bet close to the start of the event.

PS: Live betting is only recommended at Betfair Exchange, everywhere else they increase the margin on odds, which makes it impossible to get value.

To be honest, I think ReactorJuno hit the nail on the head. While ROI is probably the most effective marker of a bettor's long-term success, something that is often overlooked in our results-oriented mindset is that successful bettors in general CONSISTENTLY beat the closing odds, and that is something you can only do when you bet early. By the time the game starts, the closing line is the most ACCURATE line (factoring in lineups/injuries, volume and amount of bets from all others, etc), but if you can beat that line consistently, that is a good sign.

You won't ALWAYS beat it and sometimes you may unfortunately lock in a worse line (e.g. you take HOU -5.5 in NBA early on and then Harden randomly gets ruled out so it closes at HOU -2.5), but if with your modeling/knowledge of a particular sport you can identify which lines have value and bet them before they shift to the closing line, that is the mark of a long-term successful bettor.

I'm really not a strong math/stats person, but someone referenced me these articles from Pinnacle that I find pretty informative, hope you do as well:

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/what-distinguishes-winning-from-losing-players/6BT2G5BMD43MYSKT
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/beating-closing-line-profit-expectation/Y3U2RWVK4HCW76XU

Thanks buddy.
I remember reading this article published at Pinnacle.

Three years ago, I had 2 days off and opened an Excel sheet, and started entering random tennis matches (I used oddsportal and Pinnacle).
I selected a total of 1200 matches (pretty nice sample).
The results I found:

- betting on Pinnacle closing lines gave me a total negative ROI of -2%
- beating Pinnacle closing lines by 5% or more gave me a ROI of +2%

It means it is very hard to be profitable because of course Pinnacle applies a margin on every odds (small margin but it is still a margin), for example if the margin on odds is 5%, you will have to beat the closing line by 6% or more. Really not easy to do.

There is also this article > https://easysportbet.co.uk/why-are-closing-odds-more-accurate-than-opening-odds/

A Confused Shoe

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Quote from: reactorjuno on February 28, 2018, 09:42:24 AM

Very bad idea.

Value is easier to be found when betting EARLY, simply because less bets have been placed, and therefore the odds are still not close to real probabilities of the different outcomes.

Pinnacle allows VERY HIGH STAKES close to the start of an event for a reason: because they know the lines are very close to the real probabilities of the different possible outcomes, therefore they will make money thanks to the margin applied on each odds.

When I was betting at Pinnacle, I found great value when they open the odds, especially in Davis Cup (tennis) and I remember they allowed me only 400 EUR stakes for one bet, not more until the odds dropped. Actually I could make the odds move by myself just with a bet of 400 EUR. It of course does not happen (on big markets) close to the start of an event.

It's extremely difficult to find a value bet close to the start of the event.

PS: Live betting is only recommended at Betfair Exchange, everywhere else they increase the margin on odds, which makes it impossible to get value.

To be honest, I think ReactorJuno hit the nail on the head. While ROI is probably the most effective marker of a bettor's long-term success, something that is often overlooked in our results-oriented mindset is that successful bettors in general CONSISTENTLY beat the closing odds, and that is something you can only do when you bet early. By the time the game starts, the closing line is the most ACCURATE line (factoring in lineups/injuries, volume and amount of bets from all others, etc), but if you can beat that line consistently, that is a good sign.

You won't ALWAYS beat it and sometimes you may unfortunately lock in a worse line (e.g. you take HOU -5.5 in NBA early on and then Harden randomly gets ruled out so it closes at HOU -2.5), but if with your modeling/knowledge of a particular sport you can identify which lines have value and bet them before they shift to the closing line, that is the mark of a long-term successful bettor.

I'm really not a strong math/stats person, but someone referenced me these articles from Pinnacle that I find pretty informative, hope you do as well:

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/what-distinguishes-winning-from-losing-players/6BT2G5BMD43MYSKT
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/beating-closing-line-profit-expectation/Y3U2RWVK4HCW76XU

Indrawan77

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This is an interesting strategy that not many people know, one of the good thing in sport betting is, there are always good odds even if you are betting late, and I like to bet late, in that way I can see the situation and how well the player performed before I decided to bet, and usually betting late strategy is more effective than early bet, I got more profit from betting in the middle of the game

Vaskiy

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DGbet.fun - Crypto Sportsbook

With sports betting the odds vary based on the match situation. Based on this fact it is good to place bets once after the match starts. Placing bets before the event or close to the line of start yields profit, but need good strategy based understanding about the teams involved.

Oilacris

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Quote from: harizen on February 28, 2018, 12:10:29 PM

Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 27, 2018, 01:19:14 PM

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

As long as I saw good odds, then I will placed bets whether early or late.

Sometimes there are cases that the bet will closed even it's just still few hours before the game. Aside from that, I sometimes placing multiple bets on the same match like for example betting prior to game and betting on the actual game (live betting) but of course like I said, as long as I saw good odds.

It doesn't matter to me whether I will bet early or not. I do have lots of knowledge about my preferred sports so that is my advantage.

Having the same kind of behavior when it comes to sports betting which I don't really care at all on which time I would put as long I can see good odds or any other advantages or opportunities I do directly make any bets without minding if its too early or too late.This is my own way of betting style too which I have been using for years on playing sports betting.

harizen

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Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 27, 2018, 01:19:14 PM

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

As long as I saw good odds, then I will placed bets whether early or late.

Sometimes there are cases that the bet will closed even it's just still few hours before the game. Aside from that, I sometimes placing multiple bets on the same match like for example betting prior to game and betting on the actual game (live betting) but of course like I said, as long as I saw good odds.

It doesn't matter to me whether I will bet early or not. I do have lots of knowledge about my preferred sports so that is my advantage.

13abyknight

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For me, I don't find much time to sit down and analyse sports on the go, especially during live games. Placing wagers before the game begins while being able to salvage decent odds by comparing a few sport books is my thing. The only odd thing that I find in live betting is that the odds are always skewed hard on one side, and in a wager where everything relies on odds, it gets hard win any decent money for the amount of risk involved in overhauling upset.

poplolnman

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Quote from: Wendigo on February 28, 2018, 01:57:12 AM

You place a pre-match bet. Then if your pre-match bet is going south fast you place a live bet which will hopefully hedge your earlier position and secure you a profit. It's not rocket science. Of course it's possible that you might end up being unlucky twice which would be very unfortunate.

Yeah it's work for me sometimes and risk to get loss even more are there indeed, at least worth to give it a shot. Gambling never fun when you stay on the safe line. So just go for both and take your profit two times or go home in broke. The odds so interesting when you do bet close to the game or in live .

BlockEye

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Quote from: Bolt Brownie on February 28, 2018, 09:26:15 AM

Most of the times I prefer betting close to the start of the game, because I have more reliable information at that time. Like you said a team might end up losing a key player due to injury, and that might affect the price. Of course that if I see an odd that I think it has value, I will take it, but I will never forget that bet and let it go in play without checking it's price again and the news.

I'm used to do trading, so I have no problems in closing my bet pre-live either with profit or a loss, depending on how the odd changed. Even if I just bet closer to the start of the game, I normally see the game live, and make more bets to lock profit or reduce loss, depending on how the game goes. I'm not a true punter, and I know a will leave a lot of money on the table, because of this, but I also get out of some bad situations.

It has been working for me so far, so most of the times, I make multiple bets on the same event, and it looks more like I'm trading than just betting.

Scenarios like that will varies on what type of sports , or if we really have specific team or individual we support, in any sports we need to know their backgrounds as well their preparation upon training before we do bets unless we idolized that boxer that we will immediately bet on their side. Betting becomes trading only when some news or so called fuds happen upn preparation that changes our mind to do another bets.

reactorjuno

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Quote from: Bolt Brownie on February 28, 2018, 09:26:15 AM

Most of the times I prefer betting close to the start of the game, because I have more reliable information at that time.

Very bad idea.

Value is easier to be found when betting EARLY, simply because less bets have been placed, and therefore the odds are still not close to real probabilities of the different outcomes.

Pinnacle allows VERY HIGH STAKES close to the start of an event for a reason: because they know the lines are very close to the real probabilities of the different possible outcomes, therefore they will make money thanks to the margin applied on each odds.

When I was betting at Pinnacle, I found great value when they open the odds, especially in Davis Cup (tennis) and I remember they allowed me only 400 EUR stakes for one bet, not more until the odds dropped. Actually I could make the odds move by myself just with a bet of 400 EUR. It of course does not happen (on big markets) close to the start of an event.

It's extremely difficult to find a value bet close to the start of the event.

PS: Live betting is only recommended at Betfair Exchange, everywhere else they increase the margin on odds, which makes it impossible to get value.

Bolt Brownie

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Most of the times I prefer betting close to the start of the game, because I have more reliable information at that time. Like you said a team might end up losing a key player due to injury, and that might affect the price. Of course that if I see an odd that I think it has value, I will take it, but I will never forget that bet and let it go in play without checking it's price again and the news.

I'm used to do trading, so I have no problems in closing my bet pre-live either with profit or a loss, depending on how the odd changed. Even if I just bet closer to the start of the game, I normally see the game live, and make more bets to lock profit or reduce loss, depending on how the game goes. I'm not a true punter, and I know a will leave a lot of money on the table, because of this, but I also get out of some bad situations.

It has been working for me so far, so most of the times, I make multiple bets on the same event, and it looks more like I'm trading than just betting.

btcdevil

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Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 27, 2018, 01:19:14 PM

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

It depends on the gambler if he is available for live inplay game then i think it is much better to bet in inplay match as you will get some high odds and also know the situation of the match. In some matches where you are confident about the results then you can go before match bet also as some time odds fell down as soon as the match starts.

JL421

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There isn't a big difference both are almost same the lineups can make a little difference but betting late is preferred for most betters as they feel something might change
If you don't want risk of lineup change bet during the match the only way you lose is if the team doesn't perform well otherwise all the other predictions of lineup remains same

Wendigo

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You place a pre-match bet. Then if your pre-match bet is going south fast you place a live bet which will hopefully hedge your earlier position and secure you a profit. It's not rocket science. Of course it's possible that you might end up being unlucky twice which would be very unfortunate.

sportbettor

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List of all popular betting strategies see here: http://sportstatist.com/betting-strategies/

flower1024

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Before i was doing live betting in Directbet site, it was easy to do on this site but now others sites are not that much user friendly that's why I will place my bet before the match starts. I can predict some games like Cricket, Tennis, Football have good knowledge on this games.

sheenshane

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Quote from: Dreamchaser21 on February 27, 2018, 11:33:17 PM

I always bet on NBA games with my friends only and every game we bet, that's how we gamble and have some fun every time someone loss. I think in terms of sports, its good to bet on late or even every game because you can know if your team can survive to their opponent, its more safer I think.

Betting sports game is really having fun and excitement was always there that who's team is win at that moment, i tried also also betting NBA games sports and that was very having fun until the game was end at the final round. The most i must prefer sports game is the world boxing fight that games make me tense, thrill and full of excitements in every round have or did not reach the opponent in the 12 round. I bet $200 for that event with my friends but i'm not tried on this forum.

Dreamchaser21

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I always bet on NBA games with my friends only and every game we bet, that's how we gamble and have some fun every time someone loss. I think in terms of sports, its good to bet on late or even every game because you can know if your team can survive to their opponent, its more safer I think.

BossMacko

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Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 27, 2018, 01:19:14 PM

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

Everytime i bet in sports i always bet early because the income if you win is larger than betting late, but of course i will do my research early and make sure that i check all the possibilities that might change before the game starts. But if my favorite team or player have a game i don't do any research anymore i just bet on them because i love watching my favorite team with thrill whatever the outcome of the game win or lose.

MinerHQ

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I usually bet on cricket matches and most of the times I bet before the match begin to get better odds because many times these matches can be easily predicted if you know these teams strengths. For a quite long time, I'm following these cricket matches so some of the matches I can predict winners easily. Only a few bets I did live betting when directbet site was offering live cricket betting option but after that, I didn't try live betting.

Caladonian

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I play both when I have some time to monitor the game, I do use sportbet as they offering live games, I think what is good with live games is you can
assess the players and the team's performances, though odds really change a lot, unlike with early bets where if you are lucky to pick the best one
you will be able to win much bigger but risk also much higher as factors that influence the results still unknown.

A Confused Shoe

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Live betting definitely is a whole different beast in itself, definitely.

I personally place wagers as early as possible in hopes of yield closing line value and +EV bets, but that's just my preference.

xIIImaL

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Quote from: A Confused Shoe on February 27, 2018, 01:19:14 PM

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

I see there are plenty of the users on the betting site go with the early lock instead of waiting for odds changes to different player. I personally choose the betting option on sportsbet.io When go with the betting I will use to wait till the both team or player should be comes with the same level of odds.
The reason why I bet on the middle of the matches because odds can changes to anyone's favour we choose the player in the mid time of the match.

A Confused Shoe

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Activity: 117

Merit: 14

For you sports bettors out there, do you prefer to lock in your lines early or closer to the scheduled start time?

Early:
- chance of yielding closing line value (CLV) in locking in a line that beats the market, giving you +EV bets

Late:
- more confidence in lineups, injury situations

I guess it depends on how confident your picks long-term will yield CLV based on whatever model/projections/analysis/tipsters you use. I imagine most casual betters just place their wagers closer to game-time, though they will never yield CLV.

Topic: Sports betting Strategy -> Betting early vs. late (Read 550 times)