Hi,
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So I got this in my emails today (I removed any advertising):
Championship:
Through 19 rounds, but Nottingham Forest and Reading have played just 18 games.
ITB:
Teams are shown in league table order.
WBA +48 ( 61-50 +11)
Leeds +114 (85-38 +47)
Fulham +15 (52-67 -15)
Forest -6 (66-47 +19)
Bristol City -34 (60-75 -15)
PNE +25 (72-61 +11)
Brentford +77 (65-36 +29)
Swansea -15 (65-76 -11)
Sheffield Weds +54 (88-53 +35)
Cardiff +1 (66-81 -15)
Blackburn -12 (50-73 -23)
Hull -4 (63-58 +5)
Millwall +15 (57-53 +4)
Derby -32 (55-58 -3)
Birmingham +15 (75-71 +4)
QPR +9 (64-69 -5)
Charlton -58 (52-74 -22)
Reading +15 (44-47 -3)
Huddersfield -76 (48-70 -22)
Middlesbrough -56 (51-71 -20)
Luton -65 (47-82 -35)
Wigan -56 (50-62 -12)
Stoke +51 (61-38 +23)
Barnsley -25 (64-51 +13)
Figures next to each team are net ITB numbers for the 19 rounds played to date , for example, West Bromwich Albion have created 166 attempts inside the box, given up 118 (166 - 118 = +48) . Numbers in brackets/parenthesis are for the eight most recent starts and include attempts created and conceded, followed by a net number.
Anything in blue type is an exceptional number given the teams current position, in red a poor one, basically it is worth taking note of anyone in the top half with a minus net figure and anyone in the bottom half with a positive one. I would exclude Forest from that as their recent numbers have seen a significant upturn. For eight games, anything above 20 is very good IMO, any double digit negative number should be noted for a top half team.
These are only ever meant to be a starting point for our deliberations, there are a lot of other things to take into account, Fulham we know are good and usually get better the longer the season goes, not sure what to make of their -15 for the last eight, for now I would just treat them with caution. Cardiff I can excuse, they have started to pick up, had a lot of injuries earlier in the season and just changed head coach. Bristol City's numbers are poor and have been all season , they have ridden their luck time and time again and whenever I have seen them they have been disappointing, they have double red alongside their name and backing them , at least at lowish odds, should carry a wealth warning ! The Sheffield Wednesday numbers leap off the page, I will be able to give an update on them after watching them on Saturday. Blackburn's are heading in the opposite direction and they are another team who are carried by one or two individuals at times, I would not rush to back them, saw them against the Bees, they won 1-0 but faded out of that game and one other in which I watched them for very long periods. Stoke City continue to play much better than the table suggests and have been almost all season, they should be mid table at worse and I expect them to get there eventually. Barnsley had a good win last week and have good last eight game numbers, I have some other stats/thoughts on them , but can largely save those for another day. All I will say for now is that they were not seeing out games too well under former head coach Daniel Stendel running themselves ragged trying to (over) press in the first hour of games and leaving themselves too exposed at the back, some small tweaks in approach, which might already have been made, would serve them well,
When I updated the ITB stats during the recent international break I wrote ............Huddersfield are much improved results wise under the Cowley brothers and have taken 15 points from their last 8 (one defeat), but their numbers are still terrible and I got a look at them recently and they are the antithesis of what I think a football club should be, their "talents", such as they are, lie in the cynical/ well disciplined/ masters of the dark art variety , I would sooner my team lost, than watch that every week ! Not sure what they have by way of plan B (nothing ?), but neither are they a team who you want to fall behind against. I would not fully buy into them as having turned a corner just yet.
Town have not won in the three games subsequently, conceding 7 goals , two of the teams they played (Swansea 1-1, Bristol City 2-5) have poor numbers themselves, still a lot of work for the Cowley boys to do.
Expected points and XGF/XGA:
Expected league table with points and XGD.
Leeds 52 points +21 (1) +12/ +3
Brentford 39 +15 (2) +9/ 0
Sheff Weds 35 +6 (3) +6/ -2
Fulham 32 +5 (joint 7) -3 / -7
PNE 32 +5 (6) +1 / -3
Stoke 30 +3(4) +16 / +16
WBA 28 +8 (5) -14 / -9
Cardiff 28 +3 0 / +1
QPR 28 +/- 0 +3 / +9
Swansea 27 -2 -3 / -6
Reading 26 +1 (joint 7) +5 / +2
Hull 25 +1 -1 / -3
Birmingham 24 +2 (joint 7) -1 / +7
Wigan 24 -5 +8 / +9
Millwall 22 +/-0 (joint 7) -4 / +2
Forest 21 +1 -11 / -9
Derby 19 -6 -6 /-1
Middlesbrough 19 -7 +2 / +4
Blackburn 18 -5 -9 / -4
Barnsley 18 -8 +6 / +9
Charlton 17 -9 -6 / -9
Luton 16 -11 -1 / +4
Bristol City 14 -7 -18 / -11
Huddersfield 13 -8 -5 / +1
XP, followed by XGD rounded up or down to the nearest whole number, in brackets the top ten with regard to ITB, just as a comparison. We pretty much agree on the top 6/7 with the top 3 in the same order.
In coloured type, the difference between expected and actual numbers is highlighted, so the Leeds United line reads XP 52, XGD +21, ranked 1st for net ITB, they should be 12 points better off, with a 3 goal better goal difference. Some make odd reading like Birmingham who should have a point less, but be 7 goals better off .
I do have a small issue with XP and that is how "draws" are calculated, but that conversation can be for another day and , to be honest, I could be wrong (unlikely !) and it should make relatively little difference in any case.
I also think it is not the best barometer of when teams start to turn things around. ITB is definitely better, but then, I am biased.
Having said that, the Bees are in an automatic promotion spot , so who am I to disagree !
Since the last update the gap between Leeds and Bees and the pack has grown, as I said at that time the defensive records of United and Brentford are through the roof, the pair are so far clear of the rest it is not even worth discussing, the Bees have made a quantum leap in this department and to be honest, are very unlucky to have even conceded 13 goals. They have given up just 8 attempts ITB total in their last three starts, the five teams immediately above them in the actual table between 21 and 35.
The pair have conceded two goals between them subsequently, one each in three starts . Wednesday have come out of the ITB and XP pack to close in, but everyone else has shifted backwards even if that is not fully reflected in results.
In the international break I also noted that ............ Albion's offensive numbers over their last four starts have also dropped ,creating an average of 5.5 pg which is not enough given their defensive record and tendency to concede first. They have are -3 ITB in two of their three subsequent starts, +9 in the other, but as that was against Bristol City we can take that with a pinch of salt and I have to be honest and say that the current league leaders numbers worry me somewhat.
Huddersfield have created an average of just 5.05 attempts ITB this season which is way too low, they have 96 total, next lowest is 117, Leeds are the first team to breakthrough the 200 mark, with 202. In terms of those allowed, Bees are #1 on 86/ #2 Leeds 88/ #3 Stoke 104 and everyone else is 118 + ,bottom eight in this category are Luton 189/ Charlton 180/ Swansea 179/ Middlesbrough 177/ Barnsley 175/Wigan 173/ Bristol City 172 / 172 Huddersfield . Sorry to bang on about City but they have allowed attempts at the same rate as Wigan and Huddersfield and created them at the same level as Millwall (who are much better defensively).
I will finish this part of the notes with my usual comments ..........
I think the real value of ITB might be once the numbers start to turn through a 4-5 week period, as that might not always be reflected immediately in results, so we will have an edge "knowing" when teams are starting to up their game OR are falling into bad habits, which is just as valuable.
I like expected goals/points numbers too, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because there are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But I also think they highlight the flow of the games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.
Glossary:
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
Before I start looking at today's games I want to put up a couple more sets of numbers, starting with .......
First Half :
GP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Leeds Utd 19 8 9 2 10 4 +6 33
2 Bristol City 19 7 9 3 14 8 +6 30
3 Charlton 19 7 9 3 13 8 +5 30
4 West Bromwich 19 8 6 5 14 10 +4 30
5 Hull City 19 7 9 3 12 8 +4 30
6 Blackburn 19 8 5 6 14 11 +3 29
7 Fulham 19 7 7 5 14 7 +7 28
8 Preston 19 7 7 5 14 10 +4 28
9 Sheffield Wed 19 7 7 5 11 7 +4 28
10 Millwall 19 6 10 3 11 9 +2 28
11 Derby County 19 7 7 5 12 14 -2 28
12 Cardiff City 19 7 6 6 12 13 -1 27
13 Brentford 19 5 9 5 13 6 +7 24
14 Swansea City 19 4 12 3 9 10 -1 24
15 Birmingham City 19 4 11 4 5 6 -1 23
16 Wigan Athletic 19 5 8 6 9 11 -2 23
17 Nottm Forest 18 4 8 6 7 8 -1 20
18 QP Rangers 19 4 7 8 11 15 -4 19
19 Barnsley 19 3 9 7 8 14 -6 18
20 Reading 18 3 8 7 7 11 -4 17
21 Huddersfield 19 2 11 6 8 15 -7 17
22 Stoke City 19 3 7 9 8 14 -6 16
23 Luton Town 19 2 10 7 9 18 -9 16
24 Middlesbrough 19 2 9 8 8 16 -8 15
Second Half
GP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Leeds Utd 19 11 6 2 18 6 +12 39
2 West Bromwich 19 9 9 1 22 9 +13 36
3 Nottm Forest 18 9 9 0 17 6 +11 36
4 Brentford 19 8 7 4 16 8 +8 31
5 Fulham 19 8 7 4 17 12 +5 31
6 Sheffield Wed 19 8 7 4 15 11 +4 31
7 Swansea City 19 8 5 6 15 10 +5 29
8 Cardiff City 19 6 10 3 15 12 +3 28
9 Preston 19 6 8 5 17 13 +4 26
10 Reading 18 7 5 6 15 12 +3 26
11 Derby County 19 5 8 6 8 11 -3 23
12 Hull City 19 6 4 9 18 18 0 22
13 Bristol City 19 5 7 7 17 19 -2 22
14 Huddersfield 19 4 10 5 14 16 -2 22
15 Middlesbrough 19 4 10 5 8 11 -3 22
16 Blackburn 19 3 11 5 12 16 -4 20
17 Millwall 19 3 11 5 12 16 -4 20
18 Luton Town 19 5 5 9 16 22 -6 20
19 Birmingham City 19 3 10 6 14 18 -4 19
20 QP Rangers 19 5 4 10 17 22 -5 19
21 Barnsley 19 4 7 8 13 24 -11 19
22 Charlton 19 4 5 10 13 18 -5 17
23 Stoke City 19 3 8 8 12 19 -7 17
24 Wigan Athletic 19 4 5 10 8 20 -12 17
As you can see some big differences between how teams play before and after the break.
Most games are decided in the second half and, often in a league as competitive as the Championship, by small tweaks and changes from off the bench and the longer games go, the more likely the better team and squad is to be on the front foot.
Right through these notes it is 100% clear that Leeds are the best team in the division and whilst I do have some doubts about them over 46 games, they should currently be at least six and probably more points clear at the top.
You will note that the Bees FH numbers are not the best, they have collected just 24 points and are down in 13th and until last weekend when they led 5-0 at half time (!) , goals in the opening 45 minutes had been hard for them to come by. They have long been a second half team and always improve at home when kicking towards Ealing Road, which they almost always do after half time. But this is clearly an area in which they can improve and maybe that has started.
Forest leap off the page in these numbers, they are unbeaten in the second half and collected 16 points more after the break. If we break that second half into three 15 minute period, they have a net + goal difference in all six (home and away) in the second half, that is really impressive and hints at good options off the bench, they have an expensively assembled big squad and good tactical adjustments. Their ITB numbers in recent games are on the rise and we have to give head coach Sabri Lamouchi a lot of credit , he was not given a lot of time at Rennes after guiding them to 5th place in Ligue 1 and they may yet come to regret sacking him.
I haven't given Bristol City a hard time for a couple of paragraphs , so how about this one, the current top 10 in the league all feature in the top 10 for second half results, with one exception, no prizes for guessing !
Ten second half "losses" for QPR makes bad reading , but they have the entertainment factor with a league high 39 goals total in their games after the break.
Charlton with a 13 point and Blackburn with 9 have seen the biggest drop off between first and second half results.
The Business End:
What about the real business end of games, the final exchanges, these are numbers for after the 75th minute...........
Worst:
Preston 2-7 (scored-conceded)
Huddersfield 2-7
Middlesbrough 1-6
QPR 5-10
Wigan 1-10
Best:
Brentford 6-2
Sheffield Wednesday 9-5
Reading 9-4
WBA 13-3
The Preston and Rangers numbers are a surprise I guess, especially the former, but those for Wigan and Albion stand out like two sore thumbs and guess who Athletic entertain at the DW Stadium this coming midweek ?
OK, lots to think about with all of the above, but now it's time to try and put that to use, add it to what we have seen with our own eyes and take a look at today's fixtures, and I think I have found five good bets/ positions for us .............
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Best of luck!
Topic: Sports betting tips: free content from Club GOWI (Read 100 times)
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