Sports odds, where they come from? | Bitcointalksearch.org

GxSTxV

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

Choosing the odds is playing with provability, but some times we see weird odds, like the past fight with Mike Tyson VS Jacke Paul, that one should be a x1.1 on Jacke Paul, but It wasn't that way, that's why I start this topic with the question of Where does odds comes from?

I'm also curious about how most sportsbooks manage to cover so many leagues simultaneously and provide instant live match results. I read about this thing as they often partner with data providers, which supply them with realtime data from various leagues worldwide. These providers collect live information through official partnerships, advanced technology, and on ground scouts, ensuring accurate and timely updates.

However, taking an example of new sportsbooks that are covering our local leagues recently, and what I have noticed is the inaccurate odds, when sometimes that team performance is very strong giving them high odds.

I want to know if the data collecters travel to watch and observe the match, or they only have devices to do the job?

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Quote from: crwth on February 03, 2025, 04:17:47 AM

Isn't it always about the probability and statistics of who would win/lose in a particular match? It's most likely based on past performance from the current season and relevant data that could help predict it.

This involves experts as well, right? It's likee in a casino,o and probably some people also automated it. Making sure to balance the odds.

Sometimes, it's also popular, especially with the Jake Paul fight. It's probably been set up for a long time and has some shady stuff involved.

We will never know, but it's all about balancing risk regarding odds.

Yes, the sports betting odds are provided based on the teams involved in the chance of winning with both historical performance and the current. However, the odds are executed by a team of expert sports statisticians and mathematicians whose duty is to examine the wider betting market, statistics, and data to provide the odds that will be in favor of the house.
An example is the casino game which is already programmed by team of expert and what casino do is register with the game owner.

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Quote from: Japinat on February 03, 2025, 07:58:57 AM

~

To be fair, bookmakers are also speculators. They just have access to a large amount of data to increase the accuracy of the odds that they make, or at least the base of it. And yeah, no use trying to contest or argue with the original odds like if you were able to make your own, you wouldn't bother arguing with a bookie, you'd make your own xdd.

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on February 02, 2025, 09:28:58 PM

To clarify the situation, it is better to go not to the bookmaker, but to the site of a prediction platform, such as Polymarket.io. There are no bookmaker odds there, but simply the probabilities of winning, expressed as a percentage. And this is much more convenient and clear. The same applies to changes in odds - they change under the influence of supply and demand.

Yea, I don't think that's any better than bookies. Heck, bookies would actually be better. Prediction markets are simply whoever can pay more imo. It's only going to ever be accurate at really large markets, in my opinion. Your average tournament? Highly doubt it'd ring true. It's for this reason that bookies are the most popular, not prediction platforms. And tbf, afaik odds are based on an initial assumption but afterwards, they usually change based on supply and demand as well.

blomen

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Quote from: ? on January 30, 2025, 09:35:42 AM

The odds on betting amounts are adjusted to ensure the casino or bookmaker maintains a built-in profit. For example, if more people bet on B in a competition between A and B, the odds for B decrease, and the odds for A increase. This system works like a scale to balance the betting action and ensure the casino's profitability.

it's a very logical system, it adjusts betting odds based on supply and demand while ensuring the house always profits. at the same time, it eliminates the cost of calculating separate odds for each match.

however, one question comes to mind. there isn't just one betting site, and there's no rule that the same results will be bet on at the same odds across all platforms (considering the vast number of matches, some sites must have different odds). so how do different sites end up with the same odds? could there be a common source they all rely on?

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A bookmaker sets sports odds in two stages. At the first stage, the probability of an event is calculated (estimated) in percent. At the second stage, the bookmaker's margin (commission) is added to the result.

A bookmaker is a commercial organization. The goal of any commercial organization is to make a profit. Therefore, it is very important for a bookmaker to set its margin (commission) correctly. The profitability of its business activities directly depends on this.

Usually, a bookmaker sets a small margin for popular sports competitions. For unpopular sports competitions, a bookmaker sets a large margin (for example, 20 percent).

This is due to the fact that the bookmaker wants to deprive the player (who is well versed in the subject area) of a significant advantage. After all, such a player can potentially have an advantage in this gambling game.

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Quote from: Weawant on February 03, 2025, 06:48:53 AM

This look like an actual form of how casinos do come up with odds for gamblers to predict and the beauty of this is that it still clearly shows that the casino is actually uncertain who we will so it's safe to say we are all speculators at some point and only become correct when the results are out.

We are speculators, but we usually trust that bookmakers set fair odds. They say we need to spot overvalued or undervalued odds to gain an edge in betting, but in reality, the odds providers are smarter than us. They’re experts in their field, constantly adjusting odds across different markets, even in live betting. That’s how good they are.

As a regular gambler, I don’t overcomplicate things. It’s enough for me to know that bookies offer different markets and odds to choose from, I’ll just let the odds providers do their job while I focus on making the right picks.

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

Betting odds are to gambling what leverage is to trading. Something that shows a clear difference whenever there's a win. That's how I perceive such. For how odds are arrived at, I guess it's based on speculation of past and recent events around whatever sports/games that's up for bet and their chances to become victorious. It's purely speculation based on historical data.

For those who opine that odds are done in such a way to make gamblers fall, what do they expect before? Were they expecting that betting outfits should be the ones in loss? Nah It doesn't work that way.

Weawant

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Quote from: khiholangkang on January 30, 2025, 12:25:40 PM

The odds come from possibility, speculation, analysis and hope, and this can be created if in a regulated match, but if you look at it naturally then we will speculate with the calculation of the data received so as to create a possibility that will finally be poured into odds in numbers including how much risk will be taken by a casino to provide odds to a match either ball or anything else that is match betting.

This look like an actual form of how casinos do come up with odds for gamblers to predict and the beauty of this is that it still clearly shows that the casino is actually uncertain who we will so it's safe to say we are all speculators at some point and only become correct when the results are out.

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Quote from: crwth on February 03, 2025, 04:17:47 AM

Isn't it always about the probability and statistics of who would win/lose in a particular match? It's most likely based on past performance from the current season and relevant data that could help predict it.

This involves experts as well, right? It's likee in a casino,o and probably some people also automated it. Making sure to balance the odds.

Sometimes, it's also popular, especially with the Jake Paul fight. It's probably been set up for a long time and has some shady stuff involved.

We will never know, but it's all about balancing risk regarding odds.

There are professionals behind setting the odds for bookies, and it's not just random guesswork. All the factors you mentioned play a part in analyzing the odds, but these experts take it a step further by using advanced algorithms. They input tons of data from player stats to weather conditions and these systems automatically generate the odds, whether it's for pre-game bets or live betting.

It’s like everything is on autopilot: the moment all the information is fed in, the odds are calculated almost instantly by these sophisticated machines.

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In some rare case experienced players in a certain sporta or in a certain type of bets can be able to beat bookmakers. Of course there are also insiders that at any level could access to crucial information.
In some cases also few seconds more for placing a bet or a 1%-2% more can become a safe advantage for the player. Most of gamblers doesnt notice this.
Because they are not using software and they are wagering low amount.
As i have said in a previous post in gambling section fee charged on win amount in some sites arrive at Crazy level (60%!) https://www.racingpost.com/news/britain/betfair-exchange-to-introduce-new-commission-system-for-2025-as-premium-charge-is-dropped-a7wbg0v4GCAJ/
With a Crazy increment during the years ...and still players gambling.
Here there Is the advantage. I have seen software that can perform dozens of bet in a single second / with many accounts. At a certain scale you can have and advantage but the focus would be a different one...

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Quote from: bitbollo on February 03, 2025, 05:29:28 AM

This has been always one of my interest since the ability to understand if an odd Is "outlier" or has just a slight Advance can become crucial with live gambling or software for gamble.

There are many aggregators and mostly big providers show always the same value. I love asian books since most of the times you can see there some interesting changes.
The most "mirror" most of the time Is Betfair with their exchange. If you gamble against a bookmaker they Will have most of actions implemented and you have no advantage at all. Meanwhile others players cant get all news in the same time...

There has never been any where in gambling where the gambler is ever at an advantage, and this is possibly because it's only the casinos that does the entire work, and this most times gives me the impression that 99 percent of the time, gamblers are completely at the mercy of the casinos, that is, they decide when we win and when we lose, this may not be said exactly for sports betting, but then, they still possibly have their way around it all to ensure that the casino is never in loss regardless of how much gambler win from a match or multiple matches.

But anyway, we will keep trying out our luck always regardless of all this, after all, it's already a known fact that there is nothing that involves making money thats ever been easy..
For even the casinos, and those in charge of fixing the game odds, they all have a clear goal which like I said before, is to ensure that the casino does not run at a loss regardless of how much they have to pay players who win games.

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This has been always one of my interest since the ability to understand if an odd Is "outlier" or has just a slight Advance can become crucial with live gambling or software for gamble.

There are many aggregators and mostly big providers show always the same value. I love asian books since most of the times you can see there some interesting changes.
The most "mirror" most of the time Is Betfair with their exchange. If you gamble against a bookmaker they Will have most of actions implemented and you have no advantage at all. Meanwhile others players cant get all news in the same time...

crwth

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Isn't it always about the probability and statistics of who would win/lose in a particular match? It's most likely based on past performance from the current season and relevant data that could help predict it.

This involves experts as well, right? It's likee in a casino,o and probably some people also automated it. Making sure to balance the odds.

Sometimes, it's also popular, especially with the Jake Paul fight. It's probably been set up for a long time and has some shady stuff involved.

We will never know, but it's all about balancing risk regarding odds.

viljy

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on February 02, 2025, 09:28:58 PM

To clarify the situation, it is better to go not to the bookmaker, but to the site of a prediction platform, such as Polymarket.io. There are no bookmaker odds there, but simply the probabilities of winning, expressed as a percentage. And this is much more convenient and clear. The same applies to changes in odds - they change under the influence of supply and demand.

It seems to me that this is not a probability odds, it is shown as a percentage the proportion of the amount of bets that were placed "for" or "against" a certain event. If you bet on the side of the majority, it will be like an analogy of copy trading, that is, you will be guided not by probability, but by faith in the opinion of the crowd or, at best, faith in the opinion of a possible major insider. By the way, this system is not only available on Polymarket, for example, on such a well-known site as freebitco.in, this betting system is also used.

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Quote from: stompix on February 03, 2025, 01:50:35 AM

What in the name of god is strange in some odds?

He probably means odds that look like a trap, something we wouldn’t expect, but bookies set them up to catch the public off guard while the sharps take advantage. Seen that a lot during my gambling years, but honestly, I still fall for it sometimes. I guess I let my emotions take over too much and that's not a good thing.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on February 02, 2025, 09:28:58 PM

In fact, bookmaker odds can be misleading due to their strange appearance.

What in the name of god is strange in some odds?

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on February 02, 2025, 09:28:58 PM

To clarify the situation, it is better to go not to the bookmaker, but to the site of a prediction platform, such as Polymarket.io. There are no bookmaker odds there, but simply the probabilities of winning, expressed as a percentage. And this is much more convenient and clear. .

I think that anyone who needs to have his odds translated into percentages by a website before he has to place his bets is better off quitting gambling and never looking back, if basic 2nd or 4th-grade math depending on where you live is too much then so should be gambling.
Also, you're mistaken on the numbers on polymarket, those aren't chances, those are returns to a dollar bet, it's the bet that creates the percentages, not the other way around if someone bets 1 million and the odds drop from 20% to 15% it doesn't mean that suddenly the chances are better for that event.

mak013

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Quote from: Jating on February 01, 2025, 04:21:18 AM

Quote from: mak013 on February 01, 2025, 04:02:13 AM

It is so. But not always. I`m fond of catching bookies` mistakes on low league events. If it would be calculated automatically - i couldn`t find it i think. And also i remember situation in my country, when bookie gave awful(for bookie) line due to calculations by intern. May be they have some software, but it need people assistance.

Definitely it's not a perfect system and I think they continue to sharpen their skills if we talk about in-house bookmarkers as they have their own team to analyze those games and then have their own odds for bettors.

So it's not that easy to begin with and there could be flaws along the way. And sure enough, if you have sharp eyes and really knows what the games and the odds should be, a simple mistakes by this in house bookmakers, you can take advantage of it. Not sure though if they found it out and maybe they will cancel your bets and issue a full refund. And if that is the case then you can't do anything about it.

Yep, it is a problem. Grin

Sometimes they cancel bets, sometimes make me KYC after such bets, sometimes decrease bet limit to $1. It is not easy of course, but the prize can be really nice

I`m sure that they work on their system and one moment they will find balance that will leave me without such bets, but i hope it wouldn`t be too soon.

Julien_Olynpic

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The simplest answer to the question of where the odds come from is: from the probability distribution of the outcome of the match. In fact, bookmaker odds can be misleading due to their strange appearance. They are convenient only in terms of calculating winnings and allow you to simply calculate how much you will receive by simply multiplying the absolute size of your bet by your odds. To clarify the situation, it is better to go not to the bookmaker, but to the site of a prediction platform, such as Polymarket.io. There are no bookmaker odds there, but simply the probabilities of winning, expressed as a percentage. And this is much more convenient and clear. The same applies to changes in odds - they change under the influence of supply and demand.

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Quote from: Maslate on February 01, 2025, 05:56:17 AM

Bookies basically just facilitate the bets, they don’t set the odds themselves.

The odds come from specialized providers like Sportradar, Betradar, OddsMatrix, TXODDS, and a few others. As regular bettors, we rarely even hear about these names because we only deal with the bookies directly. In fact, bookies don’t worry too much about adjusting odds; all they need to do is ensure they can pay out the winners on every bet they accept.

It makes sense to me.
Because of the nature of betting markets, all information and odds need to come from a centralized source, or a few centralized sources, if casinos and booked were left to have their own analysis and calculate their odds by their own, then there would be more chances for gamblers to partake in arbitrage, which is frown upon by casinos in general and it is against their terms of service. Still, it would be interesting to see how the market would work if odds were let for arbiters to control, there would be a whole industry behind it and people who just want to bet with somewhat stable odds would feel frustrated by volatility, betting would become something reminiscent to trading. Tongue

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

Choosing the odds is playing with provability, but some times we see weird odds, like the past fight with Mike Tyson VS Jacke Paul, that one should be a x1.1 on Jacke Paul, but It wasn't that way, that's why I start this topic with the question of Where does odds comes from?

Determining the odds for various outcomes of sports (and not only sports games) is a certain business, most bookmakers buy this data from odds providers. The odds providers themselves calculate them based on statistics, the work of analysts + take into account cashflow (data from open markets where odds are determined by the market). In fact, there is nothing special here, the algorithms have been honed over decades, and new tools (like AI capable of processing huge amounts of data) make the determination of coefficients even more accurate.

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

Choosing the odds is playing with provability, but some times we see weird odds, like the past fight with Mike Tyson VS Jacke Paul, that one should be a x1.1 on Jacke Paul, but It wasn't that way, that's why I start this topic with the question of Where does odds comes from?

I think this is a classic bias you are having about the fight Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson. Retrospectively you can argue that it was so obvious that Jake Paul would win it, but a lot of things raised questions here not only for those placing the bets, but also for those providing the odds. First of all nobody knows till this date whether the fight was rigged. Rumors are out there and I doubt that bookmakers knew any more details than the average guy placing their bets.

But another problem was the presentation in the media when Tyson still looked like a beast and nothing was seen of that during the fight. There were plenty of people thinking that Tyson could have a chance when he is going nuts in the first two rounds and knock Jake Paul out. But when the fight ended, everyone said they should have known better

Everyone was quite in the dark how things were really looking for Tyson and then whether there were pre-fight agreements. But bookmakers had to go with it as they didn't want to miss out on the opportunity to draw bettors to their websites. They had to make an offer.

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Quote from: Mia Chloe on February 01, 2025, 05:15:10 PM

Aside from this I think you actually use some algorithms too that also try to allocate odds based on team statistics and possible win probability. Just like you mentioned, the higher the winning chances a particular team has, often times the smaller their odds this is simply because more people may place bets on that team meaning they have a higher winning chance too.
Too many persons winning is definitely bad for a casino hence odds differ and are adjusted based on some statistical probability solutions.

This job is handled by the odds provider. If bookmakers set their own odds, arbitrage bettors could easily exploit the differences. By using a common odds provider, the odds stay uniform and attract bets on both sides, keeping the industry profitable. For example, with odds ranging from 1.85 to 1.95, a $100 bet won’t net an extra $100 because part of your potential winnings goes to the bookies as juice or vig.

Weawant

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

Choosing the odds is playing with provability, but some times we see weird odds, like the past fight with Mike Tyson VS Jacke Paul, that one should be a x1.1 on Jacke Paul, but It wasn't that way, that's why I start this topic with the question of Where does odds comes from?

I cannot say for sure the exact yardstick of measurement for which the casino's does all of this but I'm thinking this could bother around some statical and historical information ms arourhis teams as gotten by their analyst, which could be their data analyst who are also thinking in probability because even them cannot be 100% certain if these odds represent the results that will be seen at the end of these event's but for insight into what we should e possibly expecting so basically it's dependent on their statistical information based on the current team formed and the past performance of the team, these are my personal taughts.

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Quote from: Felicity_Tide on February 01, 2025, 07:04:16 AM

I don't really know how these betting companies or casinos make odds for all the sports except football. Though I assume it will definitely be based on previous records which is very well associated with football.

It is based on many factors. So coming from the odds providers, they are the ones who are tackling with all the research and how they base the odds they send to the sports books.

Composed of factors like how high the chance of the team or player to win or if there are some bad news that has happened to them at the last minute before the game starts.

And as the most factor with it, the favoritism that the bookies are seeing. The odds adjusts depending on the favor of the bettors. It's well explained on the first page.

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Quote from: ? on January 30, 2025, 09:35:42 AM

The odds on betting amounts are adjusted to ensure the casino or bookmaker maintains a built-in profit. For example, if more people bet on B in a competition between A and B, the odds for B decrease, and the odds for A increase. This system works like a scale to balance the betting action and ensure the casino's profitability.

Aside from this I think you actually use some algorithms too that also try to allocate odds based on team statistics and possible win probability. Just like you mentioned, the higher the winning chances a particular team has, often times the smaller their odds this is simply because more people may place bets on that team meaning they have a higher winning chance too.
Too many persons winning is definitely bad for a casino hence odds differ and are adjusted based on some statistical probability solutions.

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Quote from: Felicity_Tide on February 01, 2025, 07:04:16 AM

I don't really know how these betting companies or casinos make odds for all the sports except football. Though I assume it will definitely be based on previous records which is very well associated with football.

Betting companies don't make their own odds for every game. They simply subscribe to odds providers, which means they pay for the info. Once you get that, it's easy to see that bookies are just running a betting shop: they take your bets and pay out after the game.

And if a big bettor comes along with a massive wager, they're quick to pass that bet over to another casino. This way, they keep their reputation of never capping a bettor's wager.

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First, we have to understand that odds are not static after it has been added by the bookmakers. From my observation, bookies add game odds based on the public preference and based on their research for the outcome of a match would be. If perhaps they believed that the public is going to bet more on a particular team, they will reduce the game odd for that team and increase the opposite team's odd. Also, when they verify that a particular team can win a match, they would give more odds to the opposite team that is meant to lose.

So, as a match approach and the public continues to place their bet, the bookie continues to adjust their odds to create a balance and they do that so that if the majority bet won, they would not be in a big lose. While public continues to bet on a team, the odd reduces and the odds of the opposite team increases and tempt some bettors to go for big odds which can cause them lose to the bookie.

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I don't really know how these betting companies or casinos make odds for all the sports except football. Though I assume it will definitely be based on previous records which is very well associated with football.

From what I know in football, the odds are usually evaluated from the team previous performance, Head to Head of previous encounters, injury list, players on suspension (not sure though), and few others that I can't really think of now. But, from what I've seen so far, especially in this 2024/25 season, lots of team has not been meeting up to expectations, so it's quite difficult to get a bet right, which is unlike seasons before now where certain team can guarantee wins no matter what.

Maybe this should also apply to other contact sports like basketball, but I don't really watch other sports, so I can't tell much.

Maslate

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Bookies basically just facilitate the bets, they don’t set the odds themselves.

The odds come from specialized providers like Sportradar, Betradar, OddsMatrix, TXODDS, and a few others. As regular bettors, we rarely even hear about these names because we only deal with the bookies directly. In fact, bookies don’t worry too much about adjusting odds; all they need to do is ensure they can pay out the winners on every bet they accept.

_act_

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Quote from: Jating on February 01, 2025, 04:21:18 AM

So it's not that easy to begin with and there could be flaws along the way. And sure enough, if you have sharp eyes and really knows what the games and the odds should be, a simple mistakes by this in house bookmakers, you can take advantage of it. Not sure though if they found it out and maybe they will cancel your bets and issue a full refund. And if that is the case then you can't do anything about it.

I remember a 2 odd match that I placed bet on some months ago. It was a clear victory. The team has been winning since first half and ended the match with 2 goals.

But it is good to be careful because sometimes what you think as opportunity is not actually opportunity. I have analyzed some matches before technically and the team that I think would win will lose instead. It has happened to me 3 or more times before.

It is good to also look at the fundamental analyses. There are times the team will not use their good players which can make the odd to be seen as an opportunity and the team bet on might lose.

Jating

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Quote from: mak013 on February 01, 2025, 04:02:13 AM

Quote from: peter0425 on January 31, 2025, 03:54:22 AM

Quote from: mak013 on January 31, 2025, 03:00:40 AM

First line is based on prediction. Sometimes it is counted automatically, sometimes it is counted by operator. After gamblers begin betting odds regularly recalculate due to gambler betting.

Pretty sure that the bookmakers have tools to help them because if they did it randomly there is a possibility that the gamblers outsmart them or if they are too biased they end up analyzing the match inaccurately. If you were a bookmaker, you’d probably need the skills to set up odds that would ensure you always get something out of it otherwise you wouldn’t be earning anything so with how developed the technology is these days, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were tools used to help bookmakers

It is so. But not always. I`m fond of catching bookies` mistakes on low league events. If it would be calculated automatically - i couldn`t find it i think. And also i remember situation in my country, when bookie gave awful(for bookie) line due to calculations by intern. May be they have some software, but it need people assistance.

Definitely it's not a perfect system and I think they continue to sharpen their skills if we talk about in-house bookmarkers as they have their own team to analyze those games and then have their own odds for bettors.

So it's not that easy to begin with and there could be flaws along the way. And sure enough, if you have sharp eyes and really knows what the games and the odds should be, a simple mistakes by this in house bookmakers, you can take advantage of it. Not sure though if they found it out and maybe they will cancel your bets and issue a full refund. And if that is the case then you can't do anything about it.

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Quote from: peter0425 on January 31, 2025, 03:54:22 AM

Quote from: mak013 on January 31, 2025, 03:00:40 AM

First line is based on prediction. Sometimes it is counted automatically, sometimes it is counted by operator. After gamblers begin betting odds regularly recalculate due to gambler betting.

Pretty sure that the bookmakers have tools to help them because if they did it randomly there is a possibility that the gamblers outsmart them or if they are too biased they end up analyzing the match inaccurately. If you were a bookmaker, you’d probably need the skills to set up odds that would ensure you always get something out of it otherwise you wouldn’t be earning anything so with how developed the technology is these days, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were tools used to help bookmakers

It is so. But not always. I`m fond of catching bookies` mistakes on low league events. If it would be calculated automatically - i couldn`t find it i think. And also i remember situation in my country, when bookie gave awful(for bookie) line due to calculations by intern. May be they have some software, but it need people assistance.

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Quote from: mak013 on January 31, 2025, 03:00:40 AM

First line is based on prediction. Sometimes it is counted automatically, sometimes it is counted by operator. After gamblers begin betting odds regularly recalculate due to gambler betting.

Pretty sure that the bookmakers have tools to help them because if they did it randomly there is a possibility that the gamblers outsmart them or if they are too biased they end up analyzing the match inaccurately. If you were a bookmaker, you’d probably need the skills to set up odds that would ensure you always get something out of it otherwise you wouldn’t be earning anything so with how developed the technology is these days, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were tools used to help bookmakers

EarnOnVictor

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You know the answer judging by your explanation before the question, but it seems you look too much which is why you are not satisfied with what you know. Don't let people deceive you, when it comes to sports betting, the house will carefully study the opponents to know the plausibility of one winning and the other losing. The same is applicable to live betting when they've already weighed the situation to know the possible turn of events and who will win and who will lose. They don't just do this randomly or balance it on the proportion of the bettors who bet one against the other as some people posted in the reply.

btc_angela

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Quote from: AGULIS on January 31, 2025, 12:01:06 AM

Sometimes odds can be set to attract more bets on a less likely outcome. It can be a strategic move by a casino or bookmaker.

Yes, but still though, it's not that good if they will go that route. I mean are they encouraging arbitrage again? This kind of strategy has been frown upon and I don't think that by this time, there are still gamblers who uses this technique to bet from one casino to another to make money.

They will have to be very competitive with other casinos as well in their odds.

And they could have their own in-house bookies as well releasing the odds for them and then comparing it to other casinos.

mak013

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

Choosing the odds is playing with provability, but some times we see weird odds, like the past fight with Mike Tyson VS Jacke Paul, that one should be a x1.1 on Jacke Paul, but It wasn't that way, that's why I start this topic with the question of Where does odds comes from?

First line is based on prediction. Sometimes it is counted automatically, sometimes it is counted by operator. After gamblers begin betting odds regularly recalculate due to gambler betting. Sometimes the part of odds are blocked for betting - it is mostly when lots gamblers make the same bet. I don`t sure but when i watched how it changed - it seems that it is automatically recalculation.
PS. I can`t say that it is true for all casinos, but at least in 3 casinos where i tried to analyze it - it looks so.

seoincorporation

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I know there are some odds providers like "odds shark", but for sure there is a math equation to get that final numbers. But as other users mentioned, there are a lot factors involved.

And I know each casino has it's own odds on each live game, but they should have their own way to calculaste It.

Kelward

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Quote from: ? on January 30, 2025, 09:35:42 AM

The odds on betting amounts are adjusted to ensure the casino or bookmaker maintains a built-in profit. For example, if more people bet on B in a competition between A and B, the odds for B decrease, and the odds for A increase. This system works like a scale to balance the betting action and ensure the casino's profitability.

Your narration makes more sense to me and in summary that is how it should be so that gambling sites will not go bankrupt. This has to be their basic concept for arriving at odds that'll be profitable for them so that they'll continue to be in business. I sometimes compare bookmakers to insurance companies who collect premium from the all their holders and settle the unfortunate few but in reverse the bookies fix odds to collect bets from many and payout a few lucky ones. Although sometimes it doesn't work like that, that is why it's called gambling.

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Quote from: tread93 on January 30, 2025, 09:40:13 PM

And when AI is on the sports betting platform side which it is nowadays the odds are surely always in favor of the house, no? Its pretty crazy all that AI has done for this hobby and everything that is transpiring.

Let's stop with the AI thing, odds and bookies have exited and have worked perfectly for decisions even before the internet.
Bookies have algorithms to create the odds that have been tested for years, nobody needs some AI that would basically do the same thing, analyze data, and come up with a result, you have to understand that this whole AI thing is nothing about actual intelligence, they are just algorithms that have a pool of data and a pool of choices, if they would be anything close to actual smart you would already have people winning matches left and right using chatbots.

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Sometimes odds can be set to attract more bets on a less likely outcome. It can be a strategic move by a casino or bookmaker.

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Quote from: tread93 on January 30, 2025, 09:40:13 PM

And when AI is on the sports betting platform side which it is nowadays the odds are surely always in favor of the house, no?

what does ai have to do with it tho?

odds are adjusted so that it always goes in favor of the house or the bookmakers this is why they get to decide the odds and they get to adjust the odds to how they want so that at the end of the day they still earn some and they do not leave the event empty handed no matter who loses or no matter who wins

ai or no ai, don’t expect to overcome bookmakers lol

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

~

It usually just starts at a base, e.g. 1:1 and are adjusted based on how many (and the amount) users place their bets on one side or the other. Still, I HIGHLY doubt that the base starts at an equal rate, they probably have their own factors that they choose from to adjust the base odds and then release it to the market. Kinda like how an AI places answer a as good and answer b as bad depending on some factors. Can't really answer what they are but they probably have some base since we almost always see similar odds across most bookies.

kotajikikox

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

The answer is that it is not just one factor that is being considered to come up with the odds.

The starting point is of course the historical performance of a team and the likelihood of that team to win however casino’s objective is to make sure that either way there will be a balanced amount of money betted on each side. They need to make sure that the house will make profit no matter what the outcome so they can move the odds to how they see fit.

If more people are betting only on one side then the casino would lower the odds for one team and increase for the other so that bettors would find that team more appealing to bet on.

tread93

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Quote from: Poker Player on January 30, 2025, 11:44:10 AM

I remember researched about it in the past and AFAIK the odds are given by combining a mix of past results with what people bet on. If the past results of a match of X vs Y give odds of 2 to 1 but people are betting more money on Y, the odds are adjusted. Other factors can also be taken into account such as if the best player on the team is injured or suspended and will not play. But those odds are given by computer programs and nowadays AI intervenes.

And when AI is on the sports betting platform side which it is nowadays the odds are surely always in favor of the house, no? Its pretty crazy all that AI has done for this hobby and everything that is transpiring. As of late the new Deep Seek from China is pretty wild> I wonder if that will also be used as an API on casino betting platforms in that region soon?

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

Choosing the odds is playing with provability, but some times we see weird odds, like the past fight with Mike Tyson VS Jacke Paul, that one should be a x1.1 on Jacke Paul, but It wasn't that way, that's why I start this topic with the question of Where does odds comes from?

As far as I know though, this casinos might have been working with some prominent oddsmaking services in, you guess it in Las Vegas.

That's why you will notice that almost all casinos have the same odds, maybe it come from the same source or other oddsmaking services that's why the odds are very close to each other. I do not think that casinos themselves is the one creating the odds for themselves.

Here is a good read: The greatest Las Vegas oddsmaker you’ve never heard of.

wheelz1200

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

Choosing the odds is playing with provability, but some times we see weird odds, like the past fight with Mike Tyson VS Jacke Paul, that one should be a x1.1 on Jacke Paul, but It wasn't that way, that's why I start this topic with the question of Where does odds comes from?

The sports books hire match makers that make the lines. Those lines will move up or down based on the action. So if the line is too high and everyone comes in on the other team the line will shift down until the bets start to even put across both teams.

Aanuoluwatofunmi

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

Choosing the odds is playing with provability, but some times we see weird odds, like the past fight with Mike Tyson VS Jacke Paul, that one should be a x1.1 on Jacke Paul, but It wasn't that way, that's why I start this topic with the question of Where does odds comes from?

There could be many factors to be considered when choosing for which of the odds will best fit in for a bet, one of the first thing they will mostly have to put in first is the kind of bet in question, the strength of each of the team as well as the chances for winning and that of losing the bet, because they already know that the strong team will definitely have a smaller odd as against the small team with a bigger odd, same applies if the two teams are strong, they will make a much similarities in their odds and this alone could be confusing to some players to determine which to got for.

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Quote from: Ojima-ojo on January 30, 2025, 02:49:05 PM

Bookmakers also follow the general market odds, these odds are set as the default value of each team or player, this could be adjustable by each casino but within a limit that is set in between each and followed up asap by others so the system works together.

Bookmakers are the ones making the odds, that's why the are them bookmakers, they are not following the market they make the calls, they set up the first odds and then they decide how the odds move on the inflow of money, there are no "general market" odds, it all comes to the bookies, they release those and then the money dictates where they go.
Also, casino have nothing to do with sports odds.

Quote from: ? on January 30, 2025, 09:35:42 AM

This system works like a scale to balance the betting action and ensure the casino's profitability.

There is no system that is perfect.
If they release odds on 1.4 for one team and nobody is betting on the other team despite odds getting lower and lower till they end up at 1.0 and betting is disabled if the favorite wins they will have to pay that all and there will be no loser to get money from.
Happens quite often in horse racing especially when one stable is on fire with their horses and jockeys, happened at Ascot where horses came down from 4.0 to 1.5 1.8 and won, one such thing back a few years ago was a total disaster for bookies with more than 2/3 of the money being placed on the winning favorite.

Sports betting is not an RTP game, it can seriously backfire.

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

Choosing the odds is playing with provability, but some times we see weird odds, like the past fight with Mike Tyson VS Jacke Paul, that one should be a x1.1 on Jacke Paul, but It wasn't that way, that's why I start this topic with the question of Where does odds comes from?

This is a well known discussion and the odds providers, yes there are companies who deal exclusively with setting odds for the different casinos that choose to pay a provider to get their odds. Now this thing of odds low 1.1 like you say means jack shit as I have seen even 1.03 in tennis or 1.04 in basketball and in fact in basketball I will never forget the reigning Champions losing at home to last place with an odd 1.04 which is the biggest surprise I have seen in this sport yet, it was last season and it was Boston Celtics that were leading the Championship and they lost to last place, there is no provability with odds, the providers think that each team has this amount of percentage to win against another and decide upon that, no one forces you to choose the favorite, as simple as that.

Orpichukwu

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Quote from: ? on January 30, 2025, 09:35:42 AM

The odds on betting amounts are adjusted to ensure the casino or bookmaker maintains a built-in profit. For example, if more people bet on B in a competition between A and B, the odds for B decrease, and the odds for A increase. This system works like a scale to balance the betting action and ensure the casino's profitability.

Is this why odds for sports games keep on changing from what they were on the date a match date is chosen down to the date on which the game is to be played? I always think the odds are adjusted to fit in what the bookmakers feel will become the outcome of the game, as the time of the match draws nearer, so they see a clearer possibility of what the outcome will be and adjust the odds to the one with a higher chance of success reducing and the one with a low chance of winning increasing. This has always been my guess.

SmartGold01

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Quote from: ? on January 30, 2025, 09:35:42 AM

The odds on betting amounts are adjusted to ensure the casino or bookmaker maintains a built-in profit. For example, if more people bet on B in a competition between A and B, the odds for B decrease, and the odds for A increase. This system works like a scale to balance the betting action and ensure the casino's profitability.

Wait let me getting something straight about this odds rationalization..
Does it mean that odds are no longer subjected to how higher the club could be? Because if this is actually the main thing that happens then the bookmakers could likely give lesser odds to losing team in other to lure people to choose the lesser odds than going for the right team, I know discussion like this always gives us meaning and the chances to learn more new things while gambling.

Ojima-ojo

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Quote from: ? on January 30, 2025, 09:35:42 AM

The odds on betting amounts are adjusted to ensure the casino or bookmaker maintains a built-in profit. For example, if more people bet on B in a competition between A and B, the odds for B decrease, and the odds for A increase. This system works like a scale to balance the betting action and ensure the casino's profitability.

Very correct like say the bookies set a 5% profit on each game, team odds system is a persistent changing mechanism that works with time and conditions pf the game if team A is leading, the value of odds for the team starts decreasing since the potential value have been taken by the team A whereas the team B who is the losing team at that moment becomes worthless and with huge odds merging since the game in already against them.

Bookmakers also follow the general market odds, these odds are set as the default value of each team or player, this could be adjustable by each casino but within a limit that is set in between each and followed up asap by others so the system works together.

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Quote from: Samlucky O on January 30, 2025, 02:24:32 PM

I have asked this question before but I just guess this is programed in such a way that the more people select more of a particular club then the odd reduces. while the lesser they selected a particular game the odd increase l. That is to say the higher the chances of win the smaller the odd. And vise versa the lesser people select a mach the higher the odd increase or the lesser opportunity of win.

This is not how it is. Even if many people have not chosen the odd, a strong team odd will be very low while an underdog team odd will be very high. But there are times that a team can be given a high odd. This can be noticed and they can look into it and check about the match information and players to know what is happening. Also if a team is resting the key players, you can see the low odd increased a little in a noticable way.

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

Choosing the odds is playing with provability, but some times we see weird odds, like the past fight with Mike Tyson VS Jacke Paul, that one should be a x1.1 on Jacke Paul, but It wasn't that way, that's why I start this topic with the question of Where does odds comes from?

I have asked this question before but I just guess this is programed in such a way that the more people select more of a particular club then the odd reduces. while the lesser they selected a particular game the odd increase l. That is to say the higher the chances of win the smaller the odd. And vise versa the lesser people select a mach the higher the odd increase or the lesser opportunity of win.

khiholangkang

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

Choosing the odds is playing with provability, but some times we see weird odds, like the past fight with Mike Tyson VS Jacke Paul, that one should be a x1.1 on Jacke Paul, but It wasn't that way, that's why I start this topic with the question of Where does odds comes from?

The odds come from possibility, speculation, analysis and hope, and this can be created if in a regulated match, but if you look at it naturally then we will speculate with the calculation of the data received so as to create a possibility that will finally be poured into odds in numbers including how much risk will be taken by a casino to provide odds to a match either ball or anything else that is match betting.

Findingnemo

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Odds are calculated based on many variables which includes the team/players stats, recent performance and the opponent and these are done by the Bookmakers not just by the casino platforms. You may also find different odds for a same game on two different betting platforms which is just due to the different bookmakers.

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Quote from: Jawhead999 on January 30, 2025, 11:00:36 AM

I think the odds are adjusted based on the gambling providers, they're not adjusted based on the bookies' profitability. Because when I gamble on different bookies and I see they're using the same providers, the odds are almost same.

But, when you compare it to other providers, the odds can be different, although not really far.

It's an exception if the bookie create by themselves from scratch, so they can adjust based on their bankroll.

danherbias07 said something similar. In your opinion, they odds are not calculated by each platform, but they all rely on some provider with authority to calculate them.

Maybe very big companies don't rely on third parties for that. Other users like dansus021 but not only him think that each platform calculates their own odds themselves.

I'll keep an eye on this thread. It is interesting to know where these odds come from, and I think that many of us may be wrong about their origin.

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

Choosing the odds is playing with provability, but some times we see weird odds, like the past fight with Mike Tyson VS Jacke Paul, that one should be a x1.1 on Jacke Paul, but It wasn't that way, that's why I start this topic with the question of Where does odds comes from?

I just do quick google search and the Google AI said something like this "Sports odds in gambling come from a combination of statistical analysis, expert opinions, historical performance, and market forces."

or in a simple way is the casino need some data, betting action from the user and public opinion all of that gather by the casino and the odds is born

Oluwa-btc

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Quote from: ? on January 30, 2025, 09:35:42 AM

The odds on betting amounts are adjusted to ensure the casino or bookmaker maintains a built-in profit. For example, if more people bet on B in a competition between A and B, the odds for B decrease, and the odds for A increase. This system works like a scale to balance the betting action and ensure the casino's profitability.

Exactly I think the bookmakers are responsible for this actions because everything is mastermind in such a way that it'll definitely boil down to making the casinos generate more profit from it but I wonder why they make their scale for calculating the odds so fair, so this is why it's all game of luck cause in this case now if it's been adjusted and favours your odd then you just won a jackpots.

Poker Player

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I remember researched about it in the past and AFAIK the odds are given by combining a mix of past results with what people bet on. If the past results of a match of X vs Y give odds of 2 to 1 but people are betting more money on Y, the odds are adjusted. Other factors can also be taken into account such as if the best player on the team is injured or suspended and will not play. But those odds are given by computer programs and nowadays AI intervenes.

Popkon6

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Quote from: seoincorporation on January 30, 2025, 09:26:19 AM

How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

Choosing the odds is playing with provability, but some times we see weird odds, like the past fight with Mike Tyson VS Jacke Paul, that one should be a x1.1 on Jacke Paul, but It wasn't that way, that's why I start this topic with the question of Where does odds comes from?

Usually the odds vary depending on the bookmaker, but the events are related to the size of the bet and the number of bets varies depending on the bettors. However, here Tyson is old so fewer people bet on Tyson because he has been less aggressive on the field due to his age.
But the opposing player Jacke Paul was young and bettors bet more on him, so we can assume that the bettors bet on the stronger side. However, I don't think bettors are underperforming and can bet on a less aggressive player to lose.

Jawhead999

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I think the odds are adjusted based on the gambling providers, they're not adjusted based on the bookies' profitability. Because when I gamble on different bookies and I see they're using the same providers, the odds are almost same.

But, when you compare it to other providers, the odds can be different, although not really far.

It's an exception if the bookie create by themselves from scratch, so they can adjust based on their bankroll.

Fivestar4everMVP

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Quote from: ? on January 30, 2025, 09:35:42 AM

The odds on betting amounts are adjusted to ensure the casino or bookmaker maintains a built-in profit. For example, if more people bet on B in a competition between A and B, the odds for B decrease, and the odds for A increase. This system works like a scale to balance the betting action and ensure the casino's profitability.

Absolutely right and exactly what I was going to include in my comment since this does not exactly answer the op's question, I believe he meant how the odds are initially formed and assigned from the very beginning of listing a game that is coming up and available for gamblers to bet on.

On this i would say that the casino or sportsbook assigned with this responsibility simply decide odd to assign to team based on their previous performances and the chances they have at winning the game, after the odds has been assigned at that very beginning, as bettors start betting, the odds changes based on team that are getting more bets, their odds decrease while the team getting less bets enjoy a bigger odds.

I believe that first, the sportsbook comes up with what should be the total odds in a game, and then divide it between the team playing based on which team stand a better chance of winning the match and as well as getting more bets.

danherbias07

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I always think that sports bookies rely on something like default odds given by a group of oddsmakers which could be the reason why they are not that much different from other sports bookies. We don't know though who this group of people are. I read in Google that stats makers are involved in these things and I bet it came from them.
Now since that is difficult to answer, the difference in each bookie is what I am more curious about. Is it from weighing the number of bets from Player A so that even if Player B wins the bookies won't have anything to lose?

ajiz138

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Perhaps the casino has data on where these odds come from as well as from winning matches, including in this team's squad in football.
But if from boxing I don't know because I don't follow many bets there only occasionally.
So maybe the match statistics are important for the bookies to change the odds for them.

Awaklara

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The odds offered by bookmakers will continue to change, perhaps it is related to the amount of bets on the event. Likewise, when the match is in progress, it changes based on the chances of winning,g and even dominance during the match also changes the odds offered.
no one knows for sure how bookmakers make the odds offered for each event. it is possible that they are adjusted for a certain amount of profit the bookmaker will have on each event.

_act_

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Casino use expected value to calculate what will be the odd in a way that gamblers will have most chance to lose more as the continue to gamble.

You can read about expected value in casinos to understand more about it.

Jacke Paul odd can not be 1.1x. That is not possible. Mick Tyson is old. Although some people thought the game is manipulated between the two of them.

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The odds on betting amounts are adjusted to ensure the casino or bookmaker maintains a built-in profit. For example, if more people bet on B in a competition between A and B, the odds for B decrease, and the odds for A increase. This system works like a scale to balance the betting action and ensure the casino's profitability.

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How does casinos selecto the odds of each game/event? Is It based in the current betted amount on the past games on that team? Or its based on the chance that the team has to win the match?

Choosing the odds is playing with provability, but some times we see weird odds, like the past fight with Mike Tyson VS Jacke Paul, that one should be a x1.1 on Jacke Paul, but It wasn't that way, that's why I start this topic with the question of Where does odds comes from?

Topic: Sports odds, where they come from? (Read 529 times)