Topic: Sportsbook Strategies (Read 966 times)

gd luck. by the way, i dont think it is nice to keep change your betting amount just to justify your method will earn $$. if want to purely prove that your method works, then only base on individual matches, no diff in mbtc bet, but with all these factors added in, it is like you also trying to show that you can earn $$ by switch the bets amount for matches that is more likely to win. So it added a lot of other factors and no longer is the pure method of odd -> goals.

yeah right whatever strategy you are doing, I think in football all could happen like yesterday's match many unexpected

I believe if all of this pick separate to single bet would be very nice profit. Btw your strategy logic and make sense enough but on sports there is always suprised result even we have a very very good analyst the game could changed and finished unexpected.

There is no method in sportsbook gambling but you can notice some ' trends ' during sports betting. If you can notice them, there will be a good chance you can win many of your games.

You only place a bet over/under, look interesting to follow your bet but not all match parlay. I would mix from your picks to make other parlay bet

I've chosen the CL for the 4th round, matches;
https://directbet.eu/Events.cshtml?EventType=Soccer&Competition=UEFA%20Champions%20League

Parlay 1:
Atletico Madrid v FC Astana - Over 2.5 WON
CSKA Moscow v Man Utd - Over 1.5 WON
Confirmed Odds : 1.94 - 11.64 mbtc WON

Parlay 2:
Galatasaray v Benfica - Under 2.5 LOST
Juventus v Mgladbach - Over 2.5 LOST 0 goals.
Confirmed Odds : 3.45

Parlay 3:
Juventus v Mgladbach - Over 2.5 LOST 0 goals.
Malmo FF v Shakhtar - Over 2.5 LOST 1 goal.
Confirmed Odds : 3.29


Parlay 4:
Man City v Sevilla - Over 2.5  WON 0 goals.
Paris St-G v Real Madrid - Over 1.5 LOST 0 goals.
Confirmed Odds : 1.98

Parlay 5:
Wolfsburg v PSV - Over 2.5  LOST 2 goals.
Paris St-G v Real Madrid - Over 2.5 LOST 0 goals.
Confirmed Odds : 2.93

I've bet 6 mbtc on each parlay. GL everyone!

When I check your looses on those bets I've seen this;
If the team is on the top 3, this match will be over 2.5.
Sport Recife v Atletico MG - Under 2.5  LOST  (Atletico MG is the second)
Atletico PR v Corinthians - Under 2.5   LOST (Corinthians is the second)
http://www.flashscore.com/soccer/brazil/serie-a/standings/

You should consider this for the next rounds

2nd round was a shame, all of them lost 25 mbtc on 2nd round).
I'm gonna play for these matches as 3rd round: https://directbet.eu/Events.cshtml?EventType=Soccer&Competition=Campeonato

Ponte Preta v Coritiba - Over 1.5 WON (3 goals scored)
Cruzeiro v Fluminense - Over 1.5 WON (2 goals scored)
Confirmed Odds : 1.87 - 9.35 mbtc won

Atletico PR v Corinthians - Under 2.5   LOST (5 goals scored )
Flamengo v Internacional - Over 1.5 LOST (1 goal )
Confirmed Odds : 2.04

Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama - Over 2.5  WON
Gremio v Chapecoense - Over 2.5 WON
Confirmed Odds : 4.24 - 21.2 mbtc won!

Sport Recife v Atletico MG - Under 2.5  LOST (4 goals so far 55th minute) )
Santos v Goias - Over 2.5  WON
Confirmed Odds : 3.5

4 parlays and 5mbtc bet on each one.

On the 3rd round I've made 53% profit. But in total I've negative balance.

1st: 21 mbtc bet, 22.6 mbtc return
2nd: 25 mbtc bet, 0 mbtc return
3rd: 20 mbtc bet, 30.55 mbtc return

So far total: 67 mbtc bet, 53.15 mbtc return. 18% loose.

First round; I Made 7.6% profit. (21 mbtc on bets, 22.6 mbtc returned)

I'm choosing Austria Erste Liga for the 2nd round;
https://directbet.eu/Events.cshtml?EventType=Soccer&Competition=Erste%20Liga
Mostly over 1.5 http://www.livescore.in/standings/G29xpEgP/z1qv2rED/#over_under;overall;1.5 and over 2.5 & under 2.5 are almost equal).
And Bayern Regionalliga (Mostly over 1.5 & under 3.5: http://www.livescore.in/standings/p0t54EGd/tUS5N4Zt/#over_under;overall;1.5 )
https://directbet.eu/Events.cshtml?EventType=Soccer&Competition=Regionalliga%20Bayern

Austria Salzburg v FC Liefering -  Under 2.5  LOST (4 goals scored)
Austria Lustenau v FAC Team fur Wien - Over 2.5 LOST (1 goals scored) I wish I played the reverse
Confirmed Odds : 4.25
To Win : 0.02125 BTC.

FC Wacker Innsbruck v St Polten - Under 2.5 LOST (4 goals scored)
KSV Superfund v FC Wiener Neustadt - Over 2.5 LOST (1 goal scored) I wish I played the reverse
Confirmed Odds : 2.88
To Win : 0.0144 BTC.

Austria Klagenfurt v LASK Linz - Over 1.5
Bayern Munich II v Schweinfurt - Over 2.5 LOST (0 goals scored)
Confirmed Odds : 1.66
To Win : 0.0083 BTC.

Burghausen v Amberg - Over 2.5
Memmingen v Jahn Regensburg - Over 2.5
Confirmed Odds : 2.59
To Win : 0.01295 BTC.


8 Match parlay: (If the match is over 2.5 then I chose over 1.5, if it's under 2.5 then I choose under 3.5) LOST.
Confirmed Odds : 4.01
To Win : 0.02005 BTC.

I've played 25 mbtc total on those bets, Let's see how it's gonna be.

congratz, a small profit is consider a gd start. however, better to have more data to support your stand to make it even more convincing.

We can code a bot to get game data but what data you exactly look for?
Odds only?

So far; I've paid: 0.021 BTC for the 5 parlays, and recieved so far 0.01332+ 0.00928= 0.0226 BTC (Also 0.010339 btc will come if Gremio or Santos scores one goal)

You should make an algorithm to see if your method works or not. I woul add other variables.


Is there a way to get game data with a bot?

nice stat you have there. you may like to bring in to the long run where you can see much more clearer picture, because at different stage of the matches, there is different approach. So you can consider adding in reasons why the bet is won or lose so you can analysis better.

This has to be the coolest strategy ever.. i will give it a try.. i was always confused about over/under goals..

i am gonna try this..thanks mate.

I'm checking those stats too: http://www.livescore.in/standings/St13Wg6P/tUUYejNl/#over_under;overall;1.5
Almost all matches have at least 2 goals for the last 5 weeks

There are other factors that you must take into account when you bet about goals. For example, if it is a decisive match for at least one team, if some team needs to win or needs not to lose, the players in the match, etc.

I prefer decide by myself what would be the most likely outcome then bet when I see my guess pays good

If both teams' strength are near (imagine real madrid barcelona, you don't know which one will win) so I play under 2.5 goals. That means there won't be 3 or more goals.

Haha, I don't think to sell anything. This can be done by anyone

Well, when it comes to Brasil Leauge, you never know. For instance I lost 4 bets (I'm waiting for the last 3 games tonight to see what's gonna happen).

you have win the bet for the first match i'm really excited for the final result of your prediction it seems fine and safe good luck 

I don't think there's any real science or fool proof strategy involved. I like to think I'm mildly successful at sports betting & to be honest I just go with what I think is right & will happen on any given day. I don't follow a strategy or rule book.

"When I see those odds, I can say there'll be 2.5+ goals. When a team's odds to win is less than 1.5, then I play 2.5+, if it's less than 1.8 then I play 1.5+ if the odds are over 1.9 for both teams I play 2.5- goals."

It seems a good strategy but football is unexpected, we may see many no goal matches between a best team and a weak team, look real madrid drew 3 times this season, 2 draw were against weak teams, so RM got much lower odds than 1.5 but both teams didn't score(if you chose over 2.5 goals that bet was lost), only 1 draw against good team-atl madrid, that match was 1-1 so your pick would be correct.

You're strategy seems fine .However I'am curious to see if it works for all your predictions.If it does you can generate an algoritham to do that and sell it . Some insane money making scheme right here .

First time I ever hear of such strategies at sports betting Good luck to you!

woa that is a very interested stragety you have. it sure sounds reasonable. i would like to see how well this turns out as if it works well, we can use this for other matches too.

what do you mean by 'if the odds are over 1.9 for both teams I play 2.5- goals. '? you mean u bet 1goal to 2goals?

Hi everyone, Let's discuss how to gamble on sportsbook, Shall we?

For instance, I've choosen Brasil Serie A for my strategy. Tonight's games: https://directbet.eu/Events.cshtml?EventType=Soccer&Competition=Campeonato

I mostly play for the total goal counts, How to decide how many goals will be scored?
For isntance: Match Odds
Atletico MG @ 1.45
Internacional @ 6.8
The Draw @ 4.3

When I see those odds, I can say there'll be 2.5+ goals. When a team's odds to win is less than 1.5, then I play 2.5+, if it's less than 1.8 then I play 1.5+ if the odds are over 1.9 for both teams I play 2.5- goals.

My picks:
Atletico MG v Internacional - Over 2.5 WON
Sport Recife v Avai - Over 1.5  WON
Confirmed Odds : 2.32
Won : 0.00928 BTC.

Figueirense v Flamengo - Under 2.5 LOST (3 goals scored)
Joinville v Coritiba - Under 2.5 LOST (4 goals scored)
Confirmed Odds : 2.5
To Win : 0.01 BTC. LOST

Palmeiras v Ponte Preta - Over 2.5 LOST (only 1 goal scored)
Atletico PR v Cruzeiro - Under 2.5 LOST (4 goals scored)
Confirmed Odds : 2.88
To Win : 0.01152 BTC.

Fluminense v Sao Paulo - Under 2.5 WON (2 goals scored)
Corinthians v Goias - Over 2.5  WON (3 goals scored)
Confirmed Odds : 3.33
WON 0.01332 BTC. 


Vasco da Gama v Chapecoense - Under 2.5 WON (2 goals scored)
Gremio v Santos - Over 1.5 LOST (only 1 goal scored on the 27th minute...)
Confirmed Odds : 2.11
To Win : 0.010339 BTC.

So I've played 4 mbtc each on those parlays (last one is 4.9 mbtc), total 20.9 mbtc.

Let's see & discuss what's gonna happen.

So far; 2 parlays won, 3 parlays lost. 5 games won 5 games lost
Paid: 0.021 BTC, Recieved so far 0.01332+ 0.00928= 0.0226 BTC

+7.6% Profit from 5 parlays. I'm looking for the second round.