Topic: Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds Rise to 75% (Bloomberg) (Read 532 times)

That's likely true, but if they had insider information that their ETF would get approved, and since we almost certainly know that it would have a positive impact on BTC price, then there's not much risk on their side. Also considering that the entire Bitcoin involvement is just a tiny fraction of their operations.


$1.4 billion of net profit after tax just for the last 3 months and over $9 trillion of average assets under management is truly impressive. You don't get bigger than that.

I know the math is wrong because it does not include more factors to have a better math. Even with more factors if we have them and finally get a better math, there are many factors on market we can not know. Psychological effects usually are bigger than math based on factors we know. I made the simple math because many newbies will have simple thinking like that.

BlackRock is a big corporate company and they create a lot of income from cash management.

I download their report for 2022 full-year report  and Q2 2023 report that show how big their corporate company is and how big their profit from management fee.

You are right with their big size, they don't have to take risk. Management safely and get income from management fee is enough for them.

Small investors take high risk because they want to get rich quickly but institutional investors are more keen on low percent of profit but aim at safety for their capital first.

I don't think it is so.
Blackrock doesn't need BTC to profit on the markets. They already own a large chunk of the equity market.
Secondly, they don't want to have a directional market risk on Bitcoin (the one that usually triggers the stop ): they are hedgers, not traders.
They would make enough profit from management fees, without putting in place risky positions on the market).

I know you didn't, but it seemed like you hinted that by math (not in reality) we should be expecting 30%. But maybe I just read it wrong.

Anyhow, if the rumours of BlackRock quietly buying bitcoins are true, some of the ETF-related cash flow could already be priced in. If the ETF gets approved and the demand and price increase, BlackRock will be unloading on their own investors rather than buying on the market on their behalf.

I did not say all those capital will be spent in Bitcoin and not say if 30% more capital pours in to Bitcoin market, Bitcoin price will increase 30%. I believe effects would be bigger than 30% and I mentioned it too. We can not estimate FOMO effects correctly as well as how far forced liquidations will lift price up. This market does not work only with Supply and Demand Principle but is more affected by forced liquidations.

Supply can be the same or become smaller when price moves up whilst demand will be bigger when new 30% capital pours into the market. Then it will be mutually affected by exchange forced liquidations.

The assumption that extra demand of 30% of the current market cap (which does not even represent the actual money that has been put in Bitcoin) will convert to 30% increase in the price doesn't have much to do with math. Things are more complex than that. In reality, much smaller (extra) demand could drive the price up by way more than 30%. First of all, we need to be looking at the number of bitcoins available for sale, which is much smaller than the total number of bitcoins in existence. But there are other factors as well, including the mood of the sellers (i.e. will they be willing to sell at the current price) or the timing (i.e. $150b dumped on market in a short period of time would have a much greater effect than if it's spread over a longer period).

Even it is an estimate, even it is over estimate, $150B compares to $500B is 30% that is a big contribution as new capital to a Bitcoin market cap.

However, it is only math because in Bitcoin market that is similar to other markets in aspect of market psychological cycles. When people are FOMO, they can over react positively and the impacts on this market when $150B flours into Bitcoin market would be bigger than 30% from the math.

According to Balchunas, ETF Spot approval would flood the market with 150 Billions:

$150,000,000,000 Coming to Bitcoin Market Once BlackRock BTC ETF Gets Approved, Predicts Bloomberg Analyst



I think that 0.5% is quite defensive as an estimate. Probably, this doesn't consider other incoming flows different than ETF.

Currently, market cap is 500B.

SEC cannot delay their decision forever, they're bounded by set timeframes after all. I think you're a bit too optimistic by expecting them to finally come up with clear guidance. They've proven repeatedly that they don't care about producing coherent rules when it comes to crypto.
But even SEC's Gary Gensler admitted multiple times that Bitcoin does not fall under the definition of security, so I don't think they'll have any solid grounds to decline ETF applications. They could come up with some petty reasons and make applicants jump through extra hoops, but will have to approve them eventually.

It's a bit dramatic and a strong push and pull of course. Well, even though many people are waiting for this, if it's delayed again, I think the authorities in this case will issue final and no longer confusing directions because ETF products are currently probably very popular for Novice investors and Anyone will be interested in buying Bitcoin because they charge low fees and usually have low volatility.

With all the excitement surrounding the "coming" approval of an ETF, I am hoping that one can be approved by SEC this year so we can see once and for all whether such a platform will be doing many benefits for Bitcoin or will it making things withered or should we say controlled? I will not be speculating anything but I am just hoping for the best. SEC has become the big enemy of the cryptocurrency sector and it is doing all it can to put all the plugs necessary for the industry to grow all while pretending it is doing its regulatory job. Right now, only a court could prod it to do its job and I am happy to see Grayscale taking the challenge though it would be so nice to see SEC really doing its job and not be an enemy to the whole crypto industry.

The possible shady mode of operation of the institution in the market is the reason why I am not totally happy about the institution's interest in the BTC market because it's something they always do and will continue to do.


According to what I read in the Grayscale letter that's indeed what's happening and people need to face the fact that it is early for the SEC to approve BTC ETF.

For now, I don't see it as winners or losers, the situation moves as positions are achieved, at this time Grayscale consolidates positions, but the regulations (SEC) now simply rethink the new battlefield.

I think the point is that we usually forget that the institution they represent has deep ties with different stakeholders. Legitimate ( the public investor) and not-so-legitimate (sponsors in Washington). So they are like oil tanker ships: you cannot make them make a U-turn. You can only gently steer them so that they slowly turn without anyone noticing, independently of how much you want them to turn.

---

Maybe this is happening now, at the hands of Grayscale with their letter

Re: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust

I don't know about Gensler stance about Bitcoin but I read that he once applied for the role of Binance advisor which shows that he could be pro Bticoin as you said.
However, I notice most of these people are always against BTC when in the official and later support BTC after they leave office.
Having said that, we shouldn't rejoice much about the GrayScale winning against the US SEC because they will always delay the Bitcoin ETF by all means.

This will be extremely interesting.
Gensler is of course pro bitcoin, but has some sponsors in Washington that are not so happy about this. Now the federal court has done him the favour of putting him against the wall. He will only have to surrender and approve the ETF: “What could I have done? The court ordered it to me!”. I can almost see him say to Sen. Warren.
The only point now is he needs to safeguard the SEC, as an institution, against a too rapid complete turnaround as it would mine his credibility. He basically needs an exit strategy (unless he already has one).

Is this increase to 95℅ by the end of 2024, meaning that there are more legal/regulatory battles to go? We need a timeline of everything that is needed to achieve the ETF goal. End of 2024 seems prolonged....it does, however, make perfect sense in line with the having cycle.


Good. They deserve the difficulty, after being a bully for so many decades. SEC failing against crypto = freedom restoration for crypto businesses, we want that.

Exactly. I wouldn't call it a "hole", it's more of a double door that SEC will have no choice but to open wide for all kinds of investors. That WILL have a positive effect on Bitcoin's price, the question is how big. Estimates vary, I think CoinDesk estimated a few months back, that approval(s) could bring in an extra $30 billion to the market.

From a logical point of view, it almost seems inevitable, as SEC doesn't really have any proper grounds for not approving spot BTC ETFs, but then again, they've already demonstrated (i.e. in Gensler's senate hearings) that they don't care too much about logic or about their reputation - so who knows. It all may boil down to whether or not they can be forced by courts to approve them.

JP Morgan is bullish on an ETF approval:

JPMorgan says SEC would likely be forced to approve spot bitcoin ETFs following Grayscale's win


Let's hope so and touch wood.
Panigirtzoglou has a poor track record on Bitcoin predictions!

A spot ETF is convenient in many ways because certified organizations will be responsible for storing bitcoins, and large investors will have access to the market.
The SEC has spent many years closing the financial floodgates to prevent money from flowing into the cryptocurrency market, and with the opening of the spot ETF, a huge hole is opening. lol.

If we look realistically at how an average Bitcoin investor thinks, then we don't need to look for any additional explanation as to why so much dust is being raised around this ETF. The whole thing revolves around the fact that most people are counting on BlackRock and other companies of that type to cause a big bull run, and all that remains after that is to sell BTC and take as much profit as possible.

Of course, these same people are counting on the fact that sooner or later the price will drop significantly again and that they will be able to repeat the whole process again, but the question is whether history will repeat itself with such big players in the game.

What should also not be forgotten is the position expressed by BlackRock regarding possible forks, and this opens up a completely new dimension in terms of how they think about it - which leads to the conclusion that at some point they may even try a fork of their own.

It's good to hear that the court wasn't convinced on how Bitcoin ETF is somehow less safe to investors than Bitcoin Futures. I thought the SEC simply doesn't want to regulate Bitcoin because it doesn't see it as a security, but this court case shows a different side of the story. Perhaps the SEC's consistent rejections of ETF applications have something to do with someone lobbying them to do so because Bitcoin can be a solid competitor to traditional stocks? Of course, some funds don't care and want in on Bitcoin alongside stock markets, but surely some might feel defensive.
If a Bitcoin ETF gets approved, whether it's that of BlackRock or Grayscale, it can be a major boost of confidence in Bitcoin's future.

Balchunas and Seyffart's optimism is based on solid knowledge of the industry.
In addition to that, some insiders, or someone who used to be an insider, share this optimism:


Bitcoin ETF “Approval Is Inevitable”: Ex-US SEC Chair Jay Clayton


My body is ready.

SEC is still a government agency not an independent entity, so it should technically follow the same attitude US government has towards companies such as BlackRock. My argument is that this fact will affect their decision regarding approval of the ETF.

I don’t know who makes those odds or where they’re getting their info from, but to me it’s always been a question of when and not if. It’s been clear for quite some time now that crypto is going to stick around as a new asset class and investors have been hungry for ways to gain exposure in their portfolios. I think it happens before next summer almost certainly.

After many mistakes with recommendations, I'd rather stand on the sidelines and not give them anymore. Why should I give another reason to be looked at as a swindler? Let them decide what is best for people.
The other day I was asked about the ETF, but I pretended that I was no longer interested in it. He replied that they would look into this issue on their own and make a decision in the same way.
I have an assumption such that they can play from the opposite. That is, when everyone is waiting for a price increase, but the opposite will happen. You need to somehow spread the crowd for money. Isn't that what big players do?

That's what I thought when I saw the price rise as soon as I heard the news. That there would be people buying just as the rally was ending, thinking that this was going to start a non stop rally, when there would soon be a dump.


Probably something similar happened in 2021 and 2022 with leveraged positions, which help to rise faster but make them fall faster as well. They put bitcoin in a financial casino, moving it further away from being a day-to-day P2P payment system.


I agree.

Today the first 3 etfs were delayed, it was basically off by a few minutes for each but then there was nothing for like an hour or so for the blackrock etf. So people assumed since they weren’t delayed then they must be approved. But eventually they were also delayed.

And the market actually was spooked because it sold off on that event which we knew was quite common, an bitcoin etf getting delayed as usual. No idea why people shorted on the news which we all knew would happen.

It is never wrong and the market repeats its many years. They react too fast with news and don't spend enough time to sit down, step back and think deeper a bit. That news about Grayscale lawsuit win against SEC does not directly lead to an approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF. If they are calm enough, they will realize it.

The win of Grayscale brings some hope for community but SEC are trying to delay their announcement on approval or rejection of Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

There are some important scheduled days to look out. Pay your attention in middle of October this year for more events or dramas from SEC.

It also appears that the odds for approval might also rise higher after September. Uncle Gary is scheduled to appear in congress and be pressured to testify on what he is doing in office, being a regulator through enforcement without legal clarity.

The skeptical me is thinking that Blackrock is starting to use their political connections to force uncle Gary to sign the applications on the ETF before the end of 2023 hehehehe.



In what could be yet another tough face off with lawmakers, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler looks set to testify before two separate committees of the US Congress in September 2023. These hearings come at the back of the historic XRP lawsuit Summary Judgment and the Grayscale spot Bitcoin ETF lawsuit victory, both of which are huge setbacks for the US SEC during the Gensler regime.

Source https://coingape.com/us-sec-gary-gensler-testify-crypto-news/

Although the SEC lost the case to Grayscale, the acceptance or rejection of the ETFs is still at the discretion of the SEC and not any other agency. So it's not surprising to me that they continue to reject all ETFs proposals, including BlackRock's, which we were most looking forward to. But what's interesting is that they delayed it until March 2024 and that's also when the halving will take place. Therefore, on social network X, many conspiracy theories have appeared claiming that the SEC is also participating in market manipulation.

Although many think this is big news, I wonder what the approval of the Spot Bitcoin ETF could add to Bitcoin in general? Just more and more speculation and price manipulation.

These large companies do not really care about adopting Bitcoin because they are essentially profitable companies and all they seek is to achieve more profits in the first place by entering new markets and the last thing they are thinking about is adopting Bitcoin.

I don't want to be pessimistic, but we must prepare to see more volatility and drama in the coming months.

It seems what happening right now is "buy the news sell the rumors". Look what happened on the price when Grayscale things popped, the market pumped, and look at now, dumped again.
For sure a lot of people are losing money because of these kinds of news.

It's logic to say that the USA. has to follow European countries in approval of Bitcoin Spot ETF. In Europe, the first Bitcoin Spot ETF was approve months ago and it is a big milestone for Bitcoin.

Latest changes in the USA. with more challenges on power of SEC and Gensler give us more hope that that nation will have its first Bitcoin Spot ETF.

Gensler will have to be testimonies in US Congress twice in this September. He will have to come to the Congress with lot of fear like a latest time he came there.

Yes, I read this news yesterday and First spot ETF approvals is possible very soon. SEC wants every firm works according to their wish and very possible that SEC will try to regulate the Bitcoin ETF even after it launched successfully. Congratulations to grayscale for winning case. currently Blackrock and other big companies like Vanceck, Wisdomtree applied for Bitcoin ETF and SEC has not approved anyone application. I don't think SEC will accept application this years because SEC is postponing every time and as far i think all application will be approved near Bitcoin halving and this will be new revolution in Bitcoin price..

In short term Spot Bitcoin approval is positive and and will bring more investors and fame to btc. bull season is not away after these application accept but I think in long term Bitcoin ETF will not give any positive results because people will not hold real btc which we store in our wallet and this will be same as CEX and we already warned that without holding in our own wallet we haven't full control over our btc.

Somehow it feels disappointing to read that Spot ETF could be approved by the end of 2024, it's not even sure.
Excitement gone which traders must have realized is a short-lived bull. If news like this goes out after halving, it would have been one that will make spikes particularly Elon's X getting a crypto license. But the market is getting harsher, it almost gives hope to the new investors but now that it has dipped again, they will leave the market for good after losing some funds.

Good News but what happened to the recent dump after Grayscale won the case against the SEC I mean Bitcoin ETF Approval will become a major milestone to get more investors, especially in the US Market.

when this really happens I think other countries will follow to make an ETF but in this case, Europe Already had one right just hope that Mr. Gary approve this

Sure, that happens, but we've never encountered that before, so you can't know with certainty, as if a large company became heavily invested in bitcoin. We're now talking about BlackRock, probably the largest financially company in the world, attempting to apply for an ETF.

I hold the belief that once bitcoin becomes integrated into the financial system, as indicated by the news, we will witness another level of bullish activity. If the system continues to advance in parallel with bitcoin, we could potentially see trillions flowing in.

I am not too sure if BTC spot etf approval can be said to be a "win" for BTC. We preach not your keys, not your coins to people, and we all know that the right way to use BTC is when you control your keys, not when another institution manages it for you.

We have to wait and see what the impact of a spot etf approval in the U.S will be, it could attract institutional investors and take the price of BTC high, which will be good for speculators; but i'll still not call it a "win" for BTC in itself, because i can't recommend people to buy BTC through etf's that they don't control, the same way i'll never recommend storing BTC's in centralized exchanges.

Political sympathies aside, US will care about their own interests just as China cares about theirs. Especially in a current time of possible Taiwan conflict looming ahead.
I believe you're referring to BlackRock getting probed by US House Committee on investing in blacklisted Chinese entities? If so, I don't think SEC actually had anything to do with it.


You can't really say if it "usually" is or isn't an ETF approval causing bull runs, as no spot Bitcoin ETF has been approved yet. But the lemmings (aka retail investors) have way less influence than they had at the beginning.

If all the ETFs really approved within the 2024 then it will be a huge win before time because in my opinion the ETFs will be approved just before or after halving. Because after halving it will have more effect because there will be lesser BTC in the market and Bull run will be near to initiation and at that time if these ETFs will got green flag then those who are still wanted to buy BTC but no buying it due to traditional mindset then those people will tend to move towards BTC.

There acceptance of BTC will increase more hype and the demand will be high and the price will be too.
Overall it will be a win win for BTC and it might really reach $150000 in 2025.

But still, I think the ETFs will be approved after the halving in next year maybe according to the news outlet as they are saying in the last quarter of 2024. Nothing confirmed here as in crypto finger must be crossed all the time.

SEC approval by Grayscale is a game-changer for the US bitcoin market. Grayscale and every other digital asset company that's fought for legitimacy and respect should celebrate. I've said for years that regulators should understand digital assets' potential, and this decision is a smack in the SEC's face.

Chance 75%? Huh? Should be yes! US is sluggish to move, but BlackRock and Fidelity, two of the largest names in traditional finance, are racing. Holding back? Why? Hard to imagine! By 2024, Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg didnt make up that probability will rise from 75% to 95%. Cryptocurrency is the future, and the SEC will fall behind if they don't switch. They can no longer use outdated regulations and bureaucracy.

The SEC is under pressure to explain why they're waiting. Before long, the US will have its first Bitcoin ETF. Darkness is coming, and Grayscale's success highlighted it.

The situation I was referring to is not bitcoin related. It is the battle this investment management company has with the US government over their "freedom of investment".
To put simply BlackRock wants to take their money (about $15 trillion if we count msci) to more solid economies such as China and US regime doesn't want to allow that because that would be the end of dollar hegemony and US economy.
The battle is that whenever BlackRock talks to any Chinese company, US government immediately and out of nowhere places that company in their terrorist list to prevent BlackRock from taking their money out of US!

So much for Economic Liberalism

That's true.

Blackrock only had one ETF rejected ever, out of almost 600.


It is usually not the ETF approval itself that causes the price spikes and bull runs but all the lemming traders on exchanges who decide: "Hey, this is my big day to get rich!", open a few long positions and buy some extra bitcoins, wait for everyone to copy them, and then close the positions once they hit profit and the brakes are slammed on the ETF craze.

With the battle Blackrock has with the US government these days, SEC may reject theirs specifically and approve anything else if they were to approve any bitcoin spot ETF.

In any case, the only thing I wonder is the effect that the approval of an ETF in USA could have on the bitcoin price, otherwise it is ETF after all and that is not the way we want bitcoin to be adopted... so it isn't really something we want to be excited about.

The SEC cannot continue to delay the ETF, but the question is when will they approve it and whether they are trying to manipulate the market. I have also read some conspiracy theories that the SEC will accept ETFs but they need to have the right timing and people believe that halving or bull season will be more appropriate to accept ETFs. Even though the SEC lost the case, approval of ETFs is still within their discretion, not the judge's authority, so they can still find other silly reasons to continue delaying until the right time.

Very odd how right after Blackrock said they would launch an etf. That they lost the lawsuit with XRP and now with GBTC. Pretty much a few weeks after.

Seems the SEC is getting kicked in the balls and they are in trouble. I wouldn’t be surprised if one day that Gensler guy is forced to resign and it’ll be taken over by someone more fair. The decision is very soon for the blackrock etf but I am guessing it’s going to be delayed.

They will approve Blackrock to run it but it really should be grayscale that gets the chance to convert their trust into an ETF. I do wonder what Blackrock etf will look like though....

It is a question WHEN, not YES/ NO question. I agree with you that Bitcoin Spot EFT will be approved in the USA. People are only speculating when it will be approved a first time.

It's reason to hype the market latest months after BlackRock applied their Bitcoin Spot ETF. The hearing of US Congress against SEC Chairman Gensler and his failure to response to questions, give the crowd more belief that SEC and Gensler will have less freedom to arbitrarily regulate cryptocurrency market as well as make decisions on approvals of Bitcoin Spot ETF.

This is important information here. Reading only the title of this thread can be misleading. Balchunas thinks it's almost certain that spot ETF will get approval, but it's a question of when not if.
Also, BlackRock has an almost 100% ETF approval rate (>99.8% per quick google search) and I don't think giants like them would even bother filing for it if they didn't know it'll get approved.

SEC did not approve any Spot Bitcoin EFT so far in the USA. and the latest lawsuit against Grayscale does not mean SEC will approve Grayscale Bitcoin Spot ETF.

The Odds rise only reflects that more chance to see a first Bitcoin Spot ETF in the USA. with approval from SEC but we just don't know when they will have to make such approval. It's interesting to see the odds rise and positive thinking in the community. I believe it will come but not in this year with only 3 months left. If it comes, it will come next year in a bull market because a first Bitcoin Spot ETF in the USA. will be a very big positive news for the market. Logically it should not come in a bear market like this year.

I have always wondered if at times organizations like the SEC play to loose so they can get some things implemented the way they want.
They lost the war so to speak but they did win a battle or two.

The court has now affirmed that they CAN regulate it, and they can't just reject it out of hand.
So they now can always go back and show that they DO have the right to do some regulations since the court did not say they could not do it.

Interesting case of double-think but I can see them using this as a stepping stone. Had they approved it, people could come back later and say they had no right to approve it or do this or that.

Just my paranoid tinfoil hat theory.

-Dave

Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds Rise to 75%

Following a notable victory in a recent court case against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), spot Bitcoin ETF approval odds have now risen to 75%. Specifically, Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas noted the significance of Grayscale’s victory in court preceding the jump in odds from 65%.

Grayscale has recently won its significant lawsuit against the SEC, with the court ordering the regulator to “vacate” its rejection of a spot Bitcoin ETF application. Subsequently, the move has propelled the odds of an ETF arriving this year up another 10%, with it appearing more likely by the day.

Bitcoin ETF Odds Jump Again Following Grayscale Victory

The race for the United States’ first spot Bitcoin ETF has been an interesting one. For the past several months, digital asset companies and traditional finance enterprises alike have submitted applications for the offerings. Headlined by the participation of asset management firms like BlackRock and Fidelity.

Although the US has yet to approve the creation of such an offering, that is looking more likely to change. Now, the spot Bitcoin ETF approval odds have risen to 75%. Indeed, the notable increase was a result of the SEC’s most recent court defeat at the hands of Grayscale.

Bloomberg’s Balchunas noted that the 75% odds are connected to a spot Bitcoin ETF approval this year. However, he added that those odds would increase to 95% by the end of 2024. Moreover, he stated that the “unanimity and decisiveness of the ruling were beyond expectations,” leaving the SEC in a difficult place.

Ultimately, the oddsmakers noted that the SEC’s defeat is a sign of increased difficulty facing the regulator. Specifically stating that they “will struggle to justify further denials as it faces deals, negative PR, and Hashdex’s novel approach.” Eventually, it is ever more likely that this year will see the very first spot Bitcoin ETF approved for operations in the United States.

https://watcher.guru/news/spot-bitcoin-etf-approval-odds-rise-to-75