Topic: Stake your 2024 U.S. presidential election prediction here (Read 338 times)

Harris wins 59 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump wins 41 times out of 100,Kamala Harris’ meteoric rise to the top of the Democratic ticket was unexpected. Two months ago, no one could have predicted it.
Kamala Harris is gonna win 2024 presidential election.

The law Walz signed did not force tampons to be placed in men's bathrooms, and yes, that law was (and is) very popular in Minnesota since it helps young girls immensely.

And most people in the USA don't demonize transgender people, and the USA has always been about letting people do whatever they wanted as long as they aren't hurting anybody else.

There is an extreme and emotional minority of Americans who hate anything involving gay people, and the propensity of violent crimes attacking these people is proof of that. Republicans support these people, fuel even more hate toward these people, and thus gain their vote using lies like the one you repeated here.

That is not to say that Democrats don't get it wrong sometimes, but they correct themselves, whereas Republicans spent 40 years trying to ban abortion in the USA even though 65% of Americans clearly don't want that and they are losing every time it is put up to a popular vote even in extreme Republican states like Kansas. Even still, Trump has vowed to effectively override state laws by making abortion illegal nationwide, starting with making the abortion pill illegal, and then allowing states to forcibly imprison women within their borders so they cannot leave to get an abortion in a free state.

This is also not to say that, just because something is popular, that makes it right. But in the US political system, Democrats generally follow the popular sentiment, and Republicans consistently follow ideology, fanaticism and hate regardless of the popularity of these things.

Based on that one might say that there was no reason to increase taxes at all at any point in history. Yet it happens again and again.


Does that mean putting tampons in men's bathrooms, attacking free speech, and allowing people to choose their gender is so popular? You're confusing popular with controversial.
In fact Democrats do a lot of the unpopular. Just go through the policies they tried to go through with and failed due to being completely destroyed and outvoted in the legislative process.

There's simply no evidence "they" are going to go lower in the income bracket, and it doesn't even make sense since if they do it will be unpopular and they will lose their elections. Biden did not pass higher taxes for non-rich people when he had a chance, nor would he have.

You are getting Democrats confused with Republicans. Democrats do what is popular. Republicans do things like make abortion illegal, which 65% of Americans don't want.

That's the problem with Harris as she rarely confirms or denies anything. The idea did not come from nowhere though.

But the proposed change that targets unrealized capital gains has drawn considerable criticism.

It’s “among the worst ideas in the Biden administration’s proposed budget,” said Siri Terjesen, a professor and associate dean at Florida Atlantic University’s College of Business.

It would serve as a “kill switch” for entrepreneurship because it would end up “discouraging investment & draining capital,” she wrote. Terjesen’s comments came in social-media posts last month and in an opinion column for the Daily Signal, a conservative website.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kamala-harris-backs-bidens-tax-proposals-including-a-tax-on-unrealized-capital-gains-66c55df2

Kamala Harris wants to hike the current 21% federal corporate income tax rate to 28%, higher than communist China’s 25% and the EU average of 21%, her campaign said Monday.

The Harris-endorsed budget calls for an annual 25 percent minimum tax on the unrealized gains of individuals with income and assets that exceeding $100 million. Once in place, it won’t be long before the threshold is lowered to hit more and more Americans.
https://www.atr.org/5-trillion-list-of-tax-hikes-kamala-harris-just-endorsed/

WASHINGTON, Aug 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris is proposing to increase the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% if she wins a November election against Republican rival Donald Trump, her campaign said on Monday.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-calls-raising-us-corporate-tax-rate-28-percent-2024-08-19/

Personally, I don't care if they're going to rip off corporations or millionaires. They're not going to stop at that and continue to go lower in the income bracket simply because Harris said it herself that she wants everyone to end up in the same place.

It's funny that people say it was a Biden's proposal and she had nothing to do with it, yet the media called it the Biden-Harris proposal

I read it again like you asked. You seem to make no distinction between any country, and seem to indicate that using force is always bad regardless of the context, i.e. pacifism.

Nazi Germany was murdering millions of jewish people and that we did everything we could to stop them was a good thing, as far as I am concerned. Same with today and Ukraine. The US is objectively a better country than either China or Russia, and hence we should stop those two countries from taking over the rest of the world (which, as the remaining superpower of the three, is left exclusively to the US).

I can have all kinds of sympathy for the past, but it doesn't matter now and we need to deal with the present.

You are selecting one sentence out of context to talk about it! Read the whole context. I am not comparing the internal governance of these 3. I am comparing their actions towards other countries specially in the context of a world war.
Read the next paragraph, I explained it well enough.

Not worth more than $100m, it's just people with a portfolio that grows more than $100m in a year.  So pretty much billionaires only....maybe a few degenerates...and only in the alternate universe where Biden doesn't drop out, goes on to beat Trump and then he's able to convince congress to implement the unrealized capital gains tax he proposed last June.  A far cry from "If Kamala win this will happen".

Ah, I missed the part where they lied about unrealized gains. There they are only talking about people with more than $100M.

So it looks like all of the Americans worth >$100M won't be voting for Harris. Or at least the ones who also want abortion to be illegal anyhow. Go figure.

This isn't true.  It's spreading all over, especially in the crypto world, but taxing unrealized gains is not something that Harris or anyone in her campaign has indicated she supported.

Seems like the fake news stems from Bidens proposal from more than a month ago on a 40% tax on unrealized gains for people with more than $100 million in capital unrealized gains for the year.

For the next few months nobody should really believe anything they read without investigating the source when it comes to anything election related.  There are going to be a ton of lies that will be very convenient to believe for people on both sides of this election.

While I think people should stake their predictions on Stake with actual money behind them, it's always nice to let people make their voices heard.  I personally think that Donald Trump will win, unless there is a massive fraud (which we know will be attempted).  I think enough states have passed voter identification laws to where another election theft will be more difficult.  I've been putting bets on Trump to win for months now, combining them with other wins to stack myself up quite a payday should the Donald get himself elected.  I'm looking forward to it.

Sure. Whatever. But Kamala Harris is proposing to increase the capital gains tax on those making more than $400k. That is what people are voting on here in the USA.

If you want abortion to be illegal, then what does it matter to you what Harris is doing about taxes?

I'd like to remind you that the first income tax in the US established in 1861 was 3% for people with income over $800.

$800 adjusted for inflation would be over $25k right now.

In other words, income tax was also intended for the rich and then it included everyone.

Harris Win

Am choosing this as a response because considering the information gotten from OP, it clearly shows and indicate that Harris is having more winning edge over Trump, base of the statistics proven there from the chart, also, if we go by the way of the populace and those declaring support for trump, we may also have a second reconsideration that he might also win, but which ever way, what we have proven here is that Kamala Harris wins.

That tax is only for people making more than $400k per year.

I'm a pessimist, so I feel like Harris might win, but there's a chance.

Have you heard how they wanted to stop RFK Jr. by saying he faked his residency? He's now considering giving his support to Trump and he was predicted to have close to 5% of votes.
Then there's Harris with her 40% unrealized gains tax... It's like Democrats are doing whatever they can to wake people up.

I'm really amazed that so many people support woke and cancel culture. How dumb do you have to be? But if you don't support it, why would you vote for Harris when she openly states that she's woke and the world should be more woke?

I cannot imagine what sort of world you live in that you could possibly believe that. It must be nice, wherever it is. One thing I know for sure though: you definitely don't live in a repressive regime. If you did, you would understand, viscerally, what the difference was between the US and Russia.

Although I tend to be an optimist about the future, if our civilization does fall, it will be because our civilization provided people so many benefits and comfort that they were able to say (and think) things... like that. That they became so isolated from the horrors of war and dictatorship that they couldn't even possibly conceive the reality of it, and thus blinded themselves to it, paving the way for thugs to roll over them like they weren't there.

Yeah, this is gonna be loooong...

It is interesting how you hide behind pretty but empty words like "Democracies versus Authoritarianism" as if there is any difference between Nazi Germany, Russia and United States.
A bomb dropped from a Nazi aircraft on a city kills people the same as a bomb dropped from a Russian or American aircraft. By comparison Nazis during WW2 and Russians in the past decade or two have murdered less people compared to the US axis known as NATO after WW2 and during it!

P.S. "invading more vulnerable countries with overwhelming force" that sounds familiar. Oh I know some vulnerable countries invaded with overwhelming force of an Axis: Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Libya and of course today Gaza!

No my friend. WW2 like the current WW5 is fought between similar regimes to gain more power. US didn't get involved in it until the end not because some idiots were affecting public opinion but because the regime wanted to go in as the victor, lose the least and see mainly Europe and of course Soviets destroyed.

If US had entered the war at the very beginning and performed a miracle and ended it then and there, Soviets wouldn't have lost this much and would not have gotten weaker. They would have remained a serious challenge and would have never allowed US to even dream of becoming a hegemon.
Most importantly the Europeans would have remained a serious competition for US instead of being destroyed and weak becoming heavily dependent on US to rebuild their flattened cities.

So since nobody could reach US mainland back in the 40's, instead of getting involved right away the US regime waited it out. Everyone that were a challenge to the regime's much desired hegemony fought each other and destroyed themselves for years; then US entered near the end and became the only victor of the WW2 building its hegemony.
This is exactly why the US regime committed genocide in Japan bombing dozens of cities using napalm and of course the thing everyone usually remembers is the two nukes after Japanese were defeated and were talking about surrendering.

...

Things are starting to sound familiar, aren't they?
5 years ago could you even imagine Europe and deindustrialization in the same sentence?
How much Russia has lost? Economically and militarily?
China is another "competitor". How are things over there in East Asia?
...

Yes. Welcome to WW5.

They are going nose to nose, it is generally unclear who will be the winner. I think Trump is the only one who can make America great.

I'm gonna say Harris will win but unlike 2020 I wouldn't put any money on it. I think I've said back then that Biden/Harris are the worst nominees Democrats could come up with, and here we are, they've painted themselves into a corner where they basically had to ditch Biden at the last minute and Harris was the only option to replace him. Luckily for them, Trump is unraveling spectacularly so they have a decent chance. Unless Harris does something exceptionally stupid around mid-October and Trump stays quiet for the following three weeks.

Sorry OP, gonna discuss politics again...


Sure.  Apples and Oranges are very similar.  Both fruits with similar size, shape, weight just like the Russia, US/NATO conflict today has a ton of similarities with the geo political tensions from the 1930s to the early 1940s.

In the 1930's authoritarianism was spreading globally (just like today) while Germany and Italy were invading more vulnerable countries with overwhelming force and little consequence from Western Democracies.  Ethiopia, Albania, Sudan, Poland, Kenya all fell to Facism with little resistance much like Putin was able to seize control of Chechnya, Georgia and Crimea over the past ~20 years.  Perhaps WW2 would have been avoided had the Allies helped Ethiopia defend themselves against Mussolini or Poland from Hitler.  Perhaps the war in Ukraine today could have been avoided if Obama responded more forcefully when Putin took Crimea or Georgia.

In 1940 when the US started shipping weapons to England and it became a real possibility that American troops would be sent to Europe, Germany somewhat successfully (although not ultimately) worked to influence American opinion by spreading misinformation and polarizing the country just like Russia did leading up to the 2016 election.  There were literally members of congress traveling the country giving speeches that were secretly written by Nazis, sending pro-Nazi propaganda through the USPS, pushing the idea that to be a true patriot meant putting America first, and putting America first meant not stopping Germany or Italy from conquering Europe.

Going back to the fruit comparison, if WW2 and present day are apples and oranges, then US conflicts with any of the countries on your list are like pineapples and blueberries.

And it has nothing to do with the fact that Trump is a convicted criminal, that he is senile and can't maintain a coherent thought for more than 30 seconds, and that he regularly insults voters who should be on his side e.g. the military... right?

Nope, it's got to be, "George Soros". LOL

I want Trump to win but I fear Harris is going go win. I think there are forced working in the background ensuring Western countries have woke, pussy ass, left wing governments in power. It’s all part of the agenda, the WEF, Soros, Gates, Rothschilds & whatever other psychopaths are really in control want.

Trump is behaving like a clown, so many insults lately, ugly as a potential leader.

Comparing Nazi Germany (WW2) with all the wars US regime started after it including Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Palestine, Afghanistan, Africa, Yemen, ... and even Ukraine+Taiwan is like comparing apples and oranges but who am I to judge continue wasting your trillions. Believe me the world loves watching this War of Attrition against US that is deteriorating it year after year getting it closer to the same fate as USSR.

There is still 2.5 months left before the general election and a lot could still happen between now and then. Trump has lost the popular vote by wide margins the last two elections. He is incredibly unpopular and will have a hard time growing his base of support. Against the corpse of Joe Biden, just about anybody would have had a chance to win. Now he has a more formidable opponent and the polls have shifted in Harris’ favor.

The people that are excited about Harris are probably overestimating her, but I think she will win by virtue of being a less terrible person compared to Trump. The electoral college system has its flaws and could still allow Trump to get another fluke victory if he can overperform in a handful of tossup states.

Perhaps you should just talked about this topic in the gambling section of the forum, there are already several threads there where people are talking about their picks and the chances each one of the candidates have to win the race, and since we are talking about the gambling section there you will find people who put their money when their mouth is, which it would be a very difference from this thread and this section; here people could say anything, but betting is a completely different thing, no doubt about it.

Leaving that aside, for now I am leaning more towards betting in favor of Kamala Harris, I am not saying I am sure she is going to win the presidency; it is mostly a gut feeling I have gotten from all this situation. I will anyways wait for the October surprise before betting on this political event.

I didn't make this thread to be the run in the mill presidential or political discussion thread but hey, it's also not self-moderated so y'all go crazy I guess.

Anyone else here feeling like making a prediction?

Though, I had not thought about it, but makes a lot of sense there was some "American first" movement back in the 1940's when it was highly convenient for the Facist Italy and the nazi Germany not getting a powerful for in the war like the United States. Today, fortunately there is no hot war with in the United States is involved in, but there are those so-called proxi wars, which some view equally as important for keeping the world order as it stands and not allowing dictators to continue to advance other the free world.
Also, considering how the Republican party seems to be so much in favor of leaving Ukraine alone against Russia, then your analogy suddenly can be compared to what our grandfathers witnessed with the rising of the facism in Europe... We can only expect the analogy not to be one hundred percent accurate, otherwise consequences would not be the same...

Is that really more dangerous than the isolationist and fascist movement that has been a part of American politics since the 1940's when "America First" was first established and Germany put lots of resources into influencing dozens of members of congress and the American public to resist getting involved with the war using many of  the same arguments that are being made today (none of our business, but the gays!, they are communists!, immigrants are so bad!, there is a war against white people!)?

Oh my friend, that project started back in the 1950's by the US regime to lull people into ignorance; as people became busy with their "underbelly area" so to speak, they started ignoring stuff like why the regime is fighting a futile war in Vietnam; and similarly today in Ukraine and possibly in Taiwan soon. They also stopped asking questions like "why are you giving my tax money to a handful of arms dealers that are getting fatter every day while I get poorer", and stopped caring about a lot of other corruptions.

That's not something that is going to change based on who is in the Oval Office. For now you have to endure the skyrocketing number of STIs like Syphilis that has been setting a new ATH every year in America!

I agree.  If it were Hailey, or DeSantis, or pretty much anyone that were the Republican nominee then shouting "Hee Hu, Bugaloo" while farting out her ass would kill any chance of winning for Kamala, but not against Trump.



She actually has shared policies and ideas, and they've already agreed to two debates where plenty of questions will be asked and answered.


I'm guessing wherever you get your news from had favorable coverage of all the people clapping while chanting "lock her up" before the 2016 election (while he was committing felonies that he has since been convicted of to help himself win), and probably also spread many of Trumps lies about voter fraud after he lost the 2020 election.

Also, what do you think should happen to a former president that takes a bunch of classified documents after failing to be re-elected and then claims he gave them all back after almost 2 years of being asked repeatedly and eventually being subpoenaed.  Should they have not executed the search warrant that turned up more classified documents?  Or just dropped the case after Trump lied about the documents, showed them to a journalist and defied the subpoena.  Do you think it should be ok for Biden to do all that beginning next year?  How about if Trump wins in November, but Biden makes up a bunch of lies about fraud and gets Kamala to count a bunch of fake electors in States that she lost so that she could be president instead of Trump?  Would you be ok with that?


Trump still might win, it's a close race.  If he loses and fails to steal the election with the help of all of his loyal election officials who plan on only certifying a Trump victory, maybe the republicans will nominate a non criminal with a little more integrity and self control that can, at the very least, win over all the conservatives that voted democrat in 2020 and 2024.

Kamala Harris could probably come on stage at the DNC, bend over, fart out of her ass, shout "Hee Hi Hu, Bugaloo!"
walk off and still stand a chance at winning.

Unbelievable.
Zero policies.
Zero ideas.
Zero questions asked.
Zero questions answered.

CNN a bunch of fucking clapping seals at an imbecile woman and can't wait to see Trump behind bars.

Fine do that all. Then what?

We all ride off into the sunset?

 

Noooooo. Aren't you tired of the LGBT left in power? America is deteriorating.

I think Harris is going to get a huge bump from the Democratic convention happening this week, and she will extend her current lead.

Trump, meanwhile, has gone completely senile, and he is only going to get worse as the panic of being put in prison sinks in.

The "October surprise" will happen in September, when Trump is sentenced to prison in New York. There's no way people are going to vote for somebody like that.

As for my prediction, I think it will be the same states Biden won, plus North Carolina, where Biden nearly won last time and polling has been trending her way ever since then:

I predict that it will be a close race that either Trump will win or that will be thrown into chaos when magatard election officials in one or more swing states that Kamala won refuse to certify the results or, after weeks of "investigation" decide to certify Trump as the winner despite Kamala receiving fewer votes.  I'm not sure exactly how that might play out, but if the pattern of craziness continues like it has for the past 8 years, it seems reasonable to expect Jan 7 2025 to be an inflection point when congress convenes to certify the outcome and the person counting the votes just happens to be...Kamala Harris.

In the mean time, I expect Trump to regain the lead in polling, followed by Democrats freaking out and then regaining the lead....possibly 2 or 3 times between now and November.

Hopefully I'm totally wrong about all of this and Kamala wins with a decisive victory and we get to spend 2025 and 2026 watching Trump be held accountable for his past crimes as well as whatever crimes he will inevitably break between now and January.  

As it stands for now, I am not willing to give out my definitive decision because (even though Harris had a slight chance to win over Donald Trump) there is still pretty much time before something significant happened and the tides turns against the Kamala Harris and her advantage.
I know it is something which it has already been before, but Joe Biden did very good when he took the decision to drop out the presidential race and allow new blood to take his place in the ticket had not he done that, I am afraid Trump would have had an easier path towards victory.

I am planning to stake a bet on either Kamala or Trump later this year, I am waiting for October surprise to happen before taking a definitive decision on who the winner is going to be.

With the plans on ground of the major parties in this coming election, I think Harris is the main strong candidate to win this election because she has a good record compare to other candidates that is coming out for the presidential election.

Harris will win.

---

It is highly unlikely that the US regime is going to allow Trump to win a second term. Consequently Trump will claim another election fraud and things will get violent. A lot more violent than 2020.

The only way Harris would have a chance of losing is if Biden manages to get US into THE war where 40k-50k US servicemembers perish in a matter of days as the entire 5th Fleet sinks and oil price skyrockets to over $1000 a barrel

Here's my map:


Here's the map from 2020 (Biden Vs. Trump)                                                                                     and 2016 (Clinton Vs. Trump)                          


It seems like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and maybe even Minnesota are going to play a particularly important role in this election.
I'm mostly going by local polling and the current trend that sees Kamala's popularity rising at the expense of Trump.
But who knows what's gonna happen till then.

Kamala Harris Vs. Donald Trump
Who's gonna win?

Use this thread to post your predictions.

Don't edit your post past November 4th! The earlier you post your unedited prediction, the more rewards* you'll get.

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You could simply say Trump or Harris will win.

If you want to make some more advanced predictions here are some tools:

Electoral map drawing:
https://www.270towin.com

Poll aggregation on the state level for the 2024 U.S. presidential election:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024