Topic: Starting to mine Litecoins with Antminer L3+ from September 2017. Questions! (Read 7690 times)

5% diff increase average seems a bit high - but even a 2% average increase will see the L3 become unprofitable before it pays for itself unless you have extremely cheap or free electric, and THAT is less than the average so far this year.
The huge increase in early-to-mid December warps long-term averages, and seems to have been a one-shot multiple companies getting batches online at the same time event - plus sales have been slowing since coin prices dropped a lot after the big peak very early this year.

Litecoin diff now standing at 329.4 TH. A massive jump since 45 TH.

Anyone else notice the HUGE jump in network hashrate in early December?
Ballpark 45 TERRAHASH (that's 45,000 GIGAhash or 45 MILLION Megahash) in a timeframe when the highest announced hashrate out of a single miner was still around 600 Megahash.

 Who the heck built *75 THOUSAND* new miners then took all of a week getting them deployed?


 It MORE than killed the profitability gain from the big price jump right after that, and hashrate has picked up almost as much AGAIN in the mid-December to early Febuary timeframe.

BW.com announced their BW L21 Litecoin miner, check out their site and Twitter and this speculation thread for more https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bwcom-l21-litecoin-scrypt-asic-miner-unofficial-speculation-thread-1918895

LW.com just announced the release of a Scrypt miner - but info is a bit short at this time, and they're talking MOQ of 100 of them.

One other factor to keep in mind - if profitability drops far enough, folks will stop buying L3+ units.

 Second factor to keep in mind - Bitmain can't get as many chips as it wants to make L3+ units WITH, which is going to slow difficulty growth to a lot less than it COULD be - this is why you see a lot of "big jumps" then followed by a flat period.

Are there be any similarly seductive miners to come to market soon?

With litecoin mining the "average" monthly diff rise will not be the same for july-october.  With the infusion of expected L3s mining it will at least double and i expect much more than that over those months, not 5%.  So will you roi be 45 likely not.  Will you still have a decent opportunity to roi in months (not years) yeah depending on LTC price and if a couple other scrypt coins can keep going up in price as well.

Either LTC goes up and you are saved and make a little profit or LTC goes down and difficulty continues to rise and you won't ever make your money back. This is exactly why it is a horrible idea to buy miners that don't deliver quickly, you have no idea what will happen in the future. GPU mining is better than ASICs IMO with the lower risk; even if Ether were to become unprofitable in the next two months, if you are mining right now up until those days you can sell the GPU at a reduced price and still possibly make money.

Hi

I think that there is one important variable that you are not thinking, that is the valorization of litecoin as difficulty rises, like what happened with bitcoin.  And dont worry that much,  in scrypt mining is much more life beyond Litecoin. Regards

Tldr

You haven't so much as missed the boat of mining... more, missed the boat of mining with the L3+...

The key to mining is to be a zero day adopter - so the people who ordered the L3+ on the first batch will profit quickly and have the largest total ROI - due to their early position on a less difficult market
Beyond about batch 2 or maybe 3 profits and total ROI become increasingly small

This early adoption advantage holds true for any kind of mining hardware, but is exacerbated by BitMain products in particular due to the sheer quantity of hardware they produce; flooding the market and causing catastrophic difficulty.

For example - BitMain themselves will have mined with all of these units pre-dispatch and as such they have the largest zero day advantage and the highest scrap value yield for each unit
The further down the queue you are/the further away you are from zero day, the lower your scrap value will be and the higher your difficulty, and as such, lower total ROI and larger risk on capital employed.


I would abort plans to buy the L3+ as the ship has sailed. Difficulty from here on out will grow, and ROI will only be saved by market price of LTC (which is extremely tricky to predict with any real accuracy)

I would save your liquidity for employment elsewhere when the next zero day product launches.


I hope that makes some sense. I can try and explain further if required

The only way for you to profit is to mine and hold for 6 years, if you mine and sell then bye bye profit, better you not to start mining at all.

Starting to mine Litecoins with Antminer L3+ from September/October 2017. Questions about profitability predictions from the day one, possible ROI and lifespan of L3+ mining.
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Hi guys,

I'm new here and new on cryptocurrency overall, so I apologize if I cannot be clear enough with my first post or if my perception of what I'm writing is totally wrong.

I want to make my first investment on bitcoins/altcoins mining, but before I do that, I would like to get some suggestions and clarifications from you guys whether it's worth it or not, or whether my calculations are a simple newbie mistakes.

It took me like two weeks of reading almost every day in order to understand the business of mining in general. First thing I've noticed was that I'm too late for this shit. I know! But better late than never. Anyways!
In a meantime I got some knowledge about network difficulty, hashrates, electricity cost, etc, in order to calculate the profit and have in mind on what to look for and where. During this time of research, Antminer S9 was the first hardware that caught my eye, but then I got somehow disappointed from mining bitcoins after I saw the estimate profit and the ROI timespan. Then I've found the Antminer L3+ as the most profitable miner compared to the other mining hardware. To be honest, I was surprised when I saw the possible earnings of almost 1 LTC per day ($35+ at current rate) with one Antminer L3+, making ROI for 45 days estimated. Too promising!

After all researches and calculations I did during this period, I made up my mind to invest in Antminer L3+, but then there was one thing at the end that made me think twice and also write this post.
Shipping on 16-20 September (consider here shipping delay, plus add some other possible delays like customs clearance process, mining setup, etc, let's say you cannot start mining before the beginning of October 2017).

First mining after 4 months from now.

Having this in mind, I started to search today for difficulty predictions and do some analysis to see if I'm fooling my self expecting the profit with the current rate profit of mining litecoins. Somehow it turned out to be true (or maybe not, which I hope), and that's why I came here to ask you if this prediction is something that we can rely on. I knew from the beginning that I won't be able to make the same profit as the current profit, but at least I didn't expect this much...

I've found a website that prints out a timetable by predicting the difficulty increment

http://www.vnbitcoin.org/detailcalculationltc.php?name=LiteCoin_Mining_Rig&startdate=2017-06-26&costperunit=2500&wattperhour=850&gigahazarate=504000&daytoincrease=3&testlopfirst=1&diffincrement=5&bitcoinperdollar=37.66&electriccostinput=.08&begindifflevel=255206

The timetable has specs of 1x Antminer L3+.

Note from the website:
"Estimate future difficulty increments is 5.0352% based on past difficulty increments and current exchange rate."

I'm not sure if this difficulty increment prediction is accumulated based on the history of more than one month, or just the last difficulty increment (June 24, 5.87%) but I believe that if this is from the January, then 6 months is a solid resource to get a prediction, but since this is variable, the biggest help could come from the experienced users, telling us if this kind of change is likely to happen based on your long experience with bitcoins/altcoins mining.

Why I'm saying this? Because there is one key element in this timetable that made me think if the prediction of 5% increment is reliable: Big drop of daily income for just 4 months. Making it impossible to get the investment back.

From the table above, take a look at the beginning of October and the end of December:

network difficulty prediction: 5%, LTC/USD rate 36.77:
01 Oct 2017 daily incomes: 0.1963 LTC (first day)
30 Dec 2017 daily incomes: 0.0450 LTC (91 days) // Total LTC income to this day: 9.61 LTC

If the LTC/USD rate will stay 35/45 USD until January, Antminer L3+ will reach its 'End of Life' service in the beginning of 2018, as the cost of electricity will be higher then the total revenue. Not sure if LTC rate will stay at the same price but with this difficulty increment, if the price of LTC doesn't get the tripple value in USD, to my opinion, the powerful L3+ miner will become a powerful trash very soon.

In a meanwhile, I have changed the difficulty prediction to 2.5% (which I expect that this is very likely to happen) just to see how long does it take to get the investment back, and it goes more then 6 months starting from October, making it more than 9 months in total, maybe 10, considering that you have to pay now for pre-order plus not including the electricity bill.

difficulty prediction: 2.5%
01 Oct 2017 daily incomes: 0.4397 LTC (first day)
30 Dec 2017 daily incomes: 0.2096 LTC (91 days) // Total LTC income to this day: 28.93 LTC
30 Mar 2018 daily incomes: 0.0999 LTC (181 days) // Total LTC income to this day: 42.09 LTC

Would like to hear from you regarding the prediction calculations from your long experience with bitcoin/altcoin mining, were there situation in the past where predictions like this were reported but it didn't really happened in reality. Can this prediction goes even worse when the release of L3+ September batch starts mining, etc. I will really appreciate this.

Also, is there anyone who started to mine with L3+ from May or beginning of June? Would like to know if their LTC income was 2 LTC per day. If yes, then this will strength the prediction above.

And the last question, based on your experience with mining, how often were you forced to upgrade the hardware to keep your self in mining?

Aaand yes, PLEASE tell me that my calculation is COMPLETELY WRONG!   That will make my day.  

Duh! Very long post. I hope somewone will read it