Statistical distribution of mining bitcoins?

kseistrup

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Quote from: ArtForz on March 06, 2011, 01:56:32 PM

It's poisson.
Remember, if events in a fixed timespan is poisson, time between events is a exponential distribution.

Yes, you're right. Except: Even when I feed events/timeunit into the calculator, the variance is much higher than expected. But perhaps I don't have enough data points…

Thanks for your input.

Cheers,

ArtForz

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It's poisson.
Remember, if events in a fixed timespan is poisson, time between events is a exponential distribution.

kseistrup

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Quote from: Cryptoman on March 06, 2011, 12:55:26 PM

Yes, it's Poisson.

I beg to differ. When I analyze the logfile from the cpuminer I get a mean (i.e., average time between delivering PoW) of appr. 1725 seconds with a variance of appr. 600E6 s². The landmark of the poisson distribution is that its mean equals its variance.

Cheers,

Cryptoman

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Yes, it's Poisson.

kseistrup

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Hi there,

Does anyone know which statistical distribution bitcoin mining is following? I've been looking at the output from jgarzik's cpuminer, and I expected the “PROOF OF WORK RESULT: true (yay!!!)” lines to approximate a Poisson distribution (completely random, rare event). Possion distributed data has same mean and variance, but the data I'm looking at has a variance of appr. mean².

Anyone?

Cheers,

Topic: Statistical distribution of mining bitcoins? (Read 1642 times)