Statistics of user registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2020

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Added statistics December 2019 and January 2020

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
December	17 600	2 722 762	0,64%	First user of Dec, 2019

2020

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
January	13 620	2 740 362	0,49%	First user of Jan, 2020
February	??	2 753 982	??	First user of Feb, 2020

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Added statistics from September to November 2019

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
September	14 561	2 673 954	0,54%	First user of Sep, 2019
October	17 891	2 688 515	0,66%	First user of Oct, 2019
November	16 356	2 706 406	0,60%	First user of Nov, 2019
December	??	2 722 762	??	First user of Dec, 2019

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Quote from: hd49728 on September 01, 2019, 01:44:53 AM

Quote from: Alex_Sr on September 01, 2019, 12:36:28 AM

Added statistics for Jule and August 2019

A typo, July instead of June, please fix it.

Quote from: Alex_Sr on July 16, 2018, 04:33:37 AM

2019

Jule

??

2 638 589

??

First user of Jul, 2019

You forgot to update OP, and there is a typo in OP, too.

Thanks! I fixed it!

hd49728

legendary

Activity: 2044

Merit: 1018

Not your keys, not your coins!

Quote from: Alex_Sr on September 01, 2019, 12:36:28 AM

Added statistics for Jule and August 2019

A typo, July instead of June, please fix it.

Quote from: Alex_Sr on July 16, 2018, 04:33:37 AM

2019

Jule

??

2 638 589

??

First user of Jul, 2019

You forgot to update OP, and there is a typo in OP, too.

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Added statistics for Jule and August 2019

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
July	18 913	2 638 589	0,71%	First user of Jul, 2019
August	16 452	2 657 502	0,62%	First user of Aug, 2019
September	??	2 673 954	??	First user of Sep, 2019

Vispilio

legendary

Activity: 2128

Merit: 1657

All in all these are strong statistics in terms of the brand value and recognition of Bitcoin as the average monthly registrations for 2019

have been steadily above the months' in 2017 preceding Cryptocurrencies' parabolic increase in value that year;

so the interest remains robust despite a full year of heavily bearish crypto markets.

DdmrDdmr

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 10802

There are lies, damned lies and statistics. MTwain

Quote from: tranthidung on July 29, 2019, 10:18:34 PM

<…> By the way, if @DdmrDdmr see this post, and have spare time, I think a new option to manually type timepoints will be great. It is hard to get exact timepoints we want by scrolling mouse.<…>

You already can …. If you single click on any of the dates on either side of a date filter slider, a calendar should appear to allow you to select the desired date. Alternatively, after performing the single click, you can overwrite the date by simply typing in the new date to filter by.

The date filter on the screenshots you provided allow you to filter by account creation date, but not by ranked-up date. The idea is to allow us to see what accounts created in a certain timeframe have managed to do in terms of ranking.

Currently, I display the aggregate and detail of all those that have ranked-up needing merits in the process, but I do not calculate the specific date when one ranked-up (I calculate the fact that they have ranked-up, but do not track the precise when). Nevertheless, for Legendries and Heroes, I do detail, on the weekly post, the names of the accounts that have ranked-up (see appended weekly posts on this thread: Bitcointalk Merit Dashboard).

tranthidung

legendary

Activity: 2310

Merit: 4085

Farewell o_e_l_e_o

Quote from: GreatArkansas on July 29, 2019, 05:23:21 PM

Like, are there any way to know how many jr.member ranked up to sr. member/ sr. member ranked up to hero by monthly?

DdmrDdmr has his merit-data-tracking and analytics on this, but results are real time, and I don't know how to trace back to previous months results. Maybe, if you want to have it, you should ask him.
I think you can ask him for help, here: Bitcointalk Merit Dashboard
Or you can play with it, here:
https://public.tableau.com/profile/ddmrddmr#!/vizhome/BitcointalkMeritDashboard/GlobalSummary
For example: Please look at figures for Full Member rank.
By defaults, results displayed for 4/24/2019.

If I scroll the timepoint back to 1/16/2019, I will have this one.

By the way, if @DdmrDdmr see this post, and have spare time, I think a new option to manually type timepoints will be great. It is hard to get exact timepoints we want by scrolling mouse.

Quote from: DdmrDdmr on July 29, 2019, 06:19:45 AM

This is the current set of profiles that have formally ranked-up under the Merit System:

15 people have made it to Legendary needing merits in the process (14 were Hero Members to start with, and one was a Sr. Member (@bob123)). In addition, 70 profiles made it to Hero, 122 to Sr. Member, 194 to Full Member, 3.420 to Member and 10.565 to Jr. Member.

This is interesting to see too:

The reading is that 734 profiles could have made it to legendary (minimum 775 activity- not considering magic number), but only 15 of them have made it so far. Likewise for example, 1.331 Sr. Members could have made it to Hero (by activity), but only 70 comply additionally with the merit requirement.

Quote from: bob123 on July 29, 2019, 06:35:57 AM

<...> So i am the first Sr. reaching legendary after merit got introduced? Sounds sweet.

Yep, as per my calculations.

GreatArkansas

legendary

Activity: 2506

Merit: 1394

Btw, this is a little bit off-topic question since this is about the ranking/merit system. Do you have also some data or thread already about newly ranks up?
Like, are there any way to know how many jr.member ranked up to sr. member/ sr. member ranked up to hero by monthly?
Because I'm just curious, since the users' registrations on Bitcointalk decrease in the year 2019 compare to the year 2017 or year 2018, maybe the merit system has also effect on registrations.

Upgate

member

Activity: 560

Merit: 14

Looking at the statistics of user registration on bitcointalk, you will find out 2019 has the lowest registered members compared to other years. Since the introduction of merits, many individuals has stopped account farming to join bounties because each bounty requires a merit to be able to join. Opening new account is quite challenging to get a merit cos you really need to work hard for it

tranthidung

legendary

Activity: 2310

Merit: 4085

Farewell o_e_l_e_o

I partially use your data, and make this one:
Assumed monthly statistics on registered accounts of bitcointalk.org (2009-2019)

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Quote from: ars.petrovich on July 23, 2019, 08:21:34 AM

Hello. I want to share with you the interesting statistics that the user Aleks_sr laid out in the ru local.

Is it a contest called "find the difference in topics"?

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Added statistics for June 2019

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
June	22 357	2 616 232	0,85%	First user of Jun, 2019
Jule	??	2 638 589	??	First user of Jul, 2019

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Added statistics for May 2019

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
May	24 472	2 591 760	0,94%	First user of May, 2019
June	??	2 616 232	??	First user of June, 2019

The number of registered users in may exceeded the same figure in April by 6562 users.

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Added statistics for April 2019

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
April	17 910	2 573 850	0,69%	First user of Apr, 2019
May	??	2 591 760	??	First user of May, 2019

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Added statistics for March 2019

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
March	18 932	2 554 918	0,74%	First user of Mar, 2019
April	??	2 573 850	??	First user of Apr, 2019

For the first time since may 2018 recorded an increase in the number of registered users in relation to the previous month.

tranthidung

legendary

Activity: 2310

Merit: 4085

Farewell o_e_l_e_o

Quote from: DdmrDdmr on March 14, 2019, 11:52:52 AM

Registered accounts is on a steep descending trend, although we need to take into consideration that many are registered and never active at all.

For new registered account figures, I suggest to exclude all newbies, that registered, and almost have no activity count, or even got banned or nuked.
Those sort of bot-created or farm-accounts don't represent true trend of new users in the forum.
They are extreme outliers, and should be excluded all.

DdmrDdmr

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 10802

There are lies, damned lies and statistics. MTwain

Registered accounts is on a steep descending trend, although we need to take into consideration that many are registered and never active at all. If we look at some data I interpreted back in November 2018 (see Analysis - Bitcointalk Accounts – Date of Register vs Last Active per Rank), there is an interesting table that speaks for itself:

As we can see above, as of November 2018:

- Brand New accounts that stay as Brand New accounts are massive, and have been steadily increasing over the years

- Most of those Brand New accounts stay baron on creation, not being active (login-in) in the years after their creation. Take for example 2017: out of the 434.487 Brand New accounts, 348.196 did not log-in during 2018 (only 86.291 did).

The above just goes to show how many accounts are not active in terms of posting, and likely many of them are bot created accounts that the creator managed to create but did not get on to the next step: exploiting them with automated posts in campaigns. Current reduction monthly figures are therefore subject to what trend these type of accounts have. Nevertheless, reduction is noticeable.

Clicking on the profiles of OPs listed first user of the month, for each month, kind of hints what is going on behind the scenes: out of the 27 listed profiles, only 11 made at least 1 post, and out of the pre-2019 profiles, only 2 out of the 24 have been active during 2019.

Another complementary reading can be taken from the number of posts created per month:

The number of created post per month is dropping to similar numbers as those around the first half of 2017. There is an obvious correlation to crypto hype and value variance, and the numbers are interpretable according to one’s perspective. For a person signed-up during early 2018, things are really quiet now. For a person who signed-up in 2016 or before mid 2017, numbers seem to be training back to those days.

Note: Number of posts reading for the 25/03/2019 is a linear projection of todays reading minus the reading on the 23/02/2019. Actual value may differ and I really expect it to be lower.

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Added statistics for February 2019

2019

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
February	16 202	2 538 716	0,63%	First user of Feb, 2019
March	??	2 554 918	??	First user of Mar, 2019

tranthidung

legendary

Activity: 2310

Merit: 4085

Farewell o_e_l_e_o

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Added statistics for January 2019

2019

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
January	22 234	2 516 483	0,88%	First user of Jan, 2019
February	??	2 538 716	??	First user of Feb, 2019

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Added statistics for December 2018

2018

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
December	23 504	2 492 979	0,93%	First user of Dec, 2018

2019

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
January	??	2 516 483	??	First user of Jan, 2019

thongexiphstaff

newbie

Activity: 7

Merit: 0

For the stats in December 2017 between the topic figure and the forum official stats.
I known the reason, that is due to the lack of official stat on Dec 2017 (only counted till the 13th December 2017, or nearly the first half of the Dec, not a full Dec).
Therefore, it's normal to see the big difference between topic stats and forum official stats.

Quote from: DdmrDdmr on July 16, 2018, 04:59:04 AM

Comparing your stats to the forum’s oficial stats (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats) there are a few discrepancies:
< ... >
- December 2017 is off quite a bit (191 537 vs 63 756 official)
December’s number of registered users seems a bit small on the official stats, considering that BTC peaked on the 16th of December, so I always wondered if they were correct for December 2017. I've just seen that, oddly enough, they only go up to the 13 of December (clicking the detail on the official Stats), so yours seem coherent with events.

Have you known why?
If you known it, can you share it here, please.

Quote

Forum official stats are not available for some reason for 2018.

bitart

hero member

Activity: 1442

Merit: 629

Vires in Numeris

Maybe they're testing the forum software or their own code for bots. I don't know how many accounts the forum software can handle but his could be a kind of attack to slow down the forum software day by day... Or, they write a code to create accounts, they have to test if if it's working or not. Also they have to run a stress test, to be sure what is the maximum amount of bot accounts they are able to create when a customer asks, they should be able to give exact timing, like: we're creating you 2,000 fresh accounts in 3 hours time... just wondering...
Maybe it's easier for the customers to just buy some already registered accounts instead of trying to register hundreds of them from the same IP (but if I remember well, recaptcha will stop them and their IP will be banned too if they want to register too many accounts).
So for an average bounty hunter, who's skills are coding rather than creating accounts, it's just easier to buy some of these accounts, and all he have to do is start running his own code, nothing else.

So to cut the long story short, why don't we just lock all the newly created accounts if they don't post in a few weeks time (I know there are newbies who are here to read first and they will post only if they feel confident about the forum, bitcoin, etc... and it takes time, but they are not the majority now unfortunately...)

DdmrDdmr

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 10802

There are lies, damned lies and statistics. MTwain

Quote from: stompix on December 04, 2018, 12:28:35 PM

Weird numbers and there is a clear trend upwards from 71% to 80%, merit impact? <…>

I don’t think so. Merit should not lead people to create accounts but not create a single post (which is what I’ve measured). Likely it’s something like the newer the non-posting account, the less chance it has had to post over time. The metrics, going backwards in time, show less number of accounts with cero posts as we go back in time (likely because of what I mentioned above).

There are a few exceptions though, that seem to surge when there are abnormal account creating periods (compared to previous months), and that have a higher number of 0 post accounts than expected:

- December 2017.. January 2018 (big boom)
- November 2015.. June 2016 (a few months after the account hack)
- January 2015 .. March 2015

I went over @Piggy’s dataset to see bot creating patterns and bursts. I think the largest I detected with recent dates was between the 28/09/2018 and the 29/09/2018, with over 7K accounts created in that period, where most of the usernames included upper/lower/number combinations.
I’m not sure why they do it. I think it may be a phased feature: First create a bunch of bot accounts (possibly not too tough), and then move on to trying to use bots to provide them dummy content for their posts (and join campaigns). The latter is likely way more difficult than the former, and many will not succeed, leaving bags of created accounts with cero posts. Of course I could be wrong.

stompix

legendary

Activity: 2912

Merit: 6403

Blackjack.fun

Weird numbers and there is a clear trend upwards from 71% to 80%, merit impact?

But if only 1-2k are nuked there are still something like 20k just lurking, again strange, but probably they are leaving them to age a bit before starting to use them as bumpers Huh

Although I see no reason for it...

80% leaves only 7000 real users if we remove another 90% for alts and another 90% for bounty only and again 99% for future shitposters Cheesy

it's probably what Alex_Sr said, one in a hundred.

DdmrDdmr

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 10802

There are lies, damned lies and statistics. MTwain

Quote from: Alex_Sr on December 04, 2018, 10:50:03 AM

<...>It is impossible to find out the number of genuine accounts - too many bots are registered. Perhaps genuine is 1 in 50 and perhaps 1 in 1000...

This could give us a clue: I’ve used @Piggy’s full dataset (covers full months up to October 2018) to count the number of registered accounts with 0 posts. Now there could be a number of reasons for registering and having no posts (don’t want to, nuked (*), etc.), but I’d say, more likely than not, many cases are botty created accounts.

On overall average, 73,18% of all created accounts have 0 associated posts.

Code:

Year Month nAccounts 0Posts %0Posts
2018 10 39353 31859 80,96%
2018 9 45362 35917 79,18%
2018 8 54384 42815 78,73%
2018 7 69840 53517 76,63%
2018 6 77681 57388 73,88%
2018 5 91993 66755 72,57%
2018 4 86898 63823 73,45%
2018 3 97644 69923 71,61%
2018 2 112211 82573 73,59%
2018 1 214546 171502 79,94%
2017 12 191455 155404 81,17%
2017 11 97286 68276 70,18%
2017 10 89443 59339 66,34%
2017 9 46186 26730 57,87%
2017 8 42254 25514 60,38%
2017 7 41011 27543 67,16%
2017 6 32733 20032 61,20%
2017 5 23978 15127 63,09%
2017 4 15807 9820 62,12%
2017 3 14760 9495 64,33%
2017 2 12677 8227 64,90%
2017 1 13354 9003 67,42%
2016 12 11199 7484 66,83%
2016 11 11187 7254 64,84%
2016 10 9935 6780 68,24%
2016 9 9923 6595 66,46%
2016 8 11193 6832 61,04%
2016 7 11257 7794 69,24%
2016 6 20630 16177 78,41%
2016 5 16918 13434 79,41%
2016 4 18493 14798 80,02%
2016 3 24945 21438 85,94%
2016 2 40436 36777 90,95%
2016 1 39178 35480 90,56%
2015 12 39950 36841 92,22%
2015 11 44059 40887 92,80%
2015 10 68831 65930 95,79%
2015 9 7727 5046 65,30%
2015 8 10942 8105 74,07%
2015 7 12616 9489 75,21%
2015 6 9310 6630 71,21%
2015 5 8037 5571 69,32%
2015 4 8914 6094 68,36%
2015 3 38297 34399 89,82%
2015 2 34357 30799 89,64%
2015 1 20794 17206 82,75%
2014 12 8391 5061 60,31%
2014 11 7996 4490 56,15%
2014 10 8332 4606 55,28%
2014 9 10158 5825 57,34%
2014 8 11443 6699 58,54%
2014 7 11119 6434 57,86%
2014 6 11952 7129 59,65%
2014 5 14264 7685 53,88%
2014 4 17948 11318 63,06%
2014 3 33521 24153 72,05%
2014 2 25450 13680 53,75%
2014 1 26619 12079 45,38%
2013 12 31775 15383 48,41%
2013 11 19680 10776 54,76%
2013 10 2927 1562 53,37%
2013 9 5155 2738 53,11%
2013 8 6052 3410 56,35%
2013 7 7413 3764 50,78%
2013 6 9372 5197 55,45%
2013 5 15512 8771 56,54%
2013 4 18712 8986 48,02%
2013 3 7357 3453 46,93%
2013 2 3532 1794 50,79%
2013 1 3184 1859 58,39%
2012 12 2765 1691 61,16%
2012 11 2708 1763 65,10%
2012 10 3199 2067 64,61%
2012 9 2345 1268 54,07%
2012 8 2394 1230 51,38%
2012 7 2109 1197 56,76%
2012 6 2079 1318 63,40%
2012 5 2017 1265 62,72%
2012 4 2071 1417 68,42%
2012 3 2117 1518 71,71%
2012 2 1991 1275 64,04%
2012 1 2051 1287 62,75%
2011 12 1719 1304 75,86%
2011 11 1990 1545 77,64%
2011 10 2060 1469 71,31%
2011 9 2443 1706 69,83%
2011 8 3856 2511 65,12%
2011 7 5451 3278 60,14%
2011 6 14434 7318 50,70%
2011 5 5866 2947 50,24%
2011 4 2822 1864 66,05%
2011 3 2423 1760 72,64%
2011 2 1090 564 51,74%
2011 1 376 179 47,61%
2010 12 422 161 38,15%
2010 11 218 115 52,75%
2010 10 174 76 43,68%
2010 9 167 92 55,09%
2010 8 163 82 50,31%
2010 7 333 58 17,42%
2010 6 34 8 23,53%
2010 5 15 2 13,33%
2010 4 22 1 04,55%
2010 3 5 0 00,00%
2010 2 22 0 00,00%
2010 1 8 0 00,00%
2009 12 8 0 00,00%
2009 11 3 0 00,00%

(*) According to @suchmoon’s post on banned accouts (see [MERIT][NSFN] We're destroying more merits than we're sending. Like, way more), between 1,2k and 1,7k accounts are nuked every month, thus causing these accounts to have 0 posts.

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Quote from: stompix on December 04, 2018, 09:46:22 AM

Quote from: Alex_Sr on September 06, 2018, 01:59:21 AM

August	54384
November	35127

Wow, that's quite a drop and pure coincidence, but still -35.40% is so close to the fluctuation in bitcoin price since mid-August till now (6500>4000), around 38%

Probably it's not just price but also the introduction of the 1 merit requirement, the diminishing interest in ICOs and thus the demand for bumping bots but if this bear market continues we will probably see less than 500 new accounts a day.
I wonder how many of those are genuine...

It is impossible to find out the number of genuine accounts - too many bots are registered. Perhaps genuine is 1 in 50 and perhaps 1 in 1000...

stompix

legendary

Activity: 2912

Merit: 6403

Blackjack.fun

Quote from: Alex_Sr on September 06, 2018, 01:59:21 AM

August	54384
November	35127

Wow, that's quite a drop and pure coincidence, but still -35.40% is so close to the fluctuation in bitcoin price since mid-August till now (6500>4000), around 38%

Probably it's not just price but also the introduction of the 1 merit requirement, the diminishing interest in ICOs and thus the demand for bumping bots but if this bear market continues we will probably see less than 500 new accounts a day.
I wonder how many of those are genuine...

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Added statistics for November 2018

2018

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
November	35127	2 457 852	1,41%	First user of Nov, 2018

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Added statistics for October 2018

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
October	39 354	2 418 498	1,60%	First user of Oct, 2018

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Added statistics for September

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
September	45 362	2 373 136	1,88%	First user of Sep, 2018

bitart

hero member

Activity: 1442

Merit: 629

Vires in Numeris

I don't know the background, but I think farmers are not registering the new accounts only on demand. I think they are creating accounts here continously, and they sell/rent them when a customer drops in.
So to cut the long story short, I think they are using the FIFO method when they sell/rent their farmed accounts. This means when a customer gets some accounts from farmers, those accounts are quite old already (but without any posts). So if this is true, your statistics can be true that there are only a few accounts banned in a few months time after the registration.
If you are after the spammer accounts, I would do it just the opposite way (but I don't have the knowledge to the technical and programming part to e.g. write a query, etc...) If you could check how old the accounts who were banned at a specific time, it could show something different, I guess.

LoyceV

legendary

Activity: 3290

Merit: 16489

Thick-Skinned Gang Leader and Golden Feather 2021

Quote from: bitart on July 21, 2018, 08:32:32 AM

Are the nuked users marked also as Newbies, without any post? If mods nuke a newbie, who already posted something, all of the posts are deleted too. This means for me that the newbies with 0 posts could be partially nuked users also.

Nuked users are shown as "Brand new" (example).

I'm curious how many users are nuked. I'll make an estimate based on a sample of the data: I start with the first post of the month, then add 10 to the userID. This means I scrape 10% of all users from http://bpip.org/, to get an estimate of the percentage of users that have been nuked in a month.

Update: I'm not sure if BPIP has ban-data from January 2018, and I didn't want to continue the slow scraping process.
I expected a large percentage of accounts to be banned, but it's really not that much. Most new accounts (about 75%) never made a single post.
That leaves just data for August 2018: I've scraped 10% of all accounts (starting at 2318753, ending at 2373137): 3 users have been Autobanned and 65 users have been Nuked (5439 accounts checked). That's only 1.25% of all accounts, or approximately 5% of all accounts that have ever posted.
I'm currently checking July 2018, then I'll stop. I'm curious to see if a higher percentage gets banned a month later.
Update: 18 users have been Autobanned and 167 users have been Nuked (6984 accounts checked).
In short:
2.65% of the accounts created in July are banned.
1.25% of the accounts created in August are banned.

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

UPD: Added statistics for August

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
August	54 384	2 318 752	2,35%	First user of Aug, 2018

bitart

hero member

Activity: 1442

Merit: 629

Vires in Numeris

Quote from: stompix on July 19, 2018, 01:52:38 PM

Are there some statistics about the number of users that have been banned/nuked?
And in the case of banned members, about their ranks?

I think it would be interesting to see how many of the freshly registered users are shown the exit door daily.

I have a feeling that each time the mods are following the lists of LoyceV and others, after a few hours the number of fresh registrations spikes again Grin

Are the nuked users marked also as Newbies, without any post? If mods nuke a newbie, who already posted something, all of the posts are deleted too. This means for me that the newbies with 0 posts could be partially nuked users also. (And I'm not surprised if the number of these kind of users are growing...)

Quickseller

copper member

Activity: 2996

Merit: 2374

Quote from: Alex_Sr on July 19, 2018, 10:05:41 AM

Quote from: Quickseller on July 19, 2018, 12:16:32 AM

Quote from: Alex_Sr on July 18, 2018, 05:16:33 AM

Quote from: Quickseller on July 18, 2018, 02:04:03 AM

I am curious to know the number of registrations of accounts that have actually made at least say 10 posts, and the number of people that have made their 10th post by month.

[...]

The calculation was made on the basis of a sample of 500 accounts registered from 1 to 19 June 2018 (the age of all accounts is more than 4 weeks)

Why do you think those 500 accounts are representative of all registered accounts?

The sample began with 100 accounts:
Sample 100:
79% - 0 post - Brand new
7 % - 1 post
3 % - 2 post
4 % - 10 post and more

Sample 200:
75% - 0 post - Brand new
8 % - 1 post
4 % - 2 post
5 % - 10 post and more

Sample 250:
73,6% - 0 post - Brand new
8,0 % - 1 post
4,0 % - 2 post
5,2 % - 10 post and more

I think the error in the sample of 500 accounts is no more than 0.5-1%

I understand that the sample might be generally accurate for that general period of time, but I am interested in seeing how this changes over time.

shield132

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Activity: 2352

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Quote from: John_BAKA on July 20, 2018, 12:12:08 AM

Quote from: shield132 on July 18, 2018, 05:09:32 PM

Quote from: LoyceV on July 18, 2018, 07:37:42 AM

Quote from: Alex_Sr on July 18, 2018, 05:16:33 AM

74% - 0 post - Brand new

I'm pretty sure many of these accounts are owned by spammers, waiting to be needed to run a spambot. I would be in favour of banning all accounts with 0 posts a month after creation.

Quote from: John_BAKA on July 18, 2018, 06:53:37 AM

Hi, I am a University student in Hong Kong. I am studying economics. Now, I am doing my honor project which is about the relationship between bitcoin price and Internet variables. The data of Forum Statistics is very useful for my project. Can provide the daily data? Thx

What data do you need exactly?
This sounds like an interesting subject that deserves it's own thread to publish your findings from start to end. If you create one, please PM me the link. I may be able to help you with some of your data requirements.

No, why ban all accounts after 1 month inactivity? That's not fair to my mind because sometimes we register to ask just one thing (usually around mining) and then we are in silent for some time. To my mind six month is adequate.
John_BAKA
I think you don't need any forum's SMF (CMS) statistics for your project, old topics and public statistic is enough.

How about the daily new posts, new topics and page views. They seems look like useful.

Quote

Can provide the daily data? Thx

Here it is:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats
If you are looking for them, then I suggest you to choose some sections because for example bitcoin discussion is very spammed. Also it will be better if you often visit cointelegraph.

John_BAKA

newbie

Activity: 2

Merit: 0

Quote from: shield132 on July 18, 2018, 05:09:32 PM

Quote from: LoyceV on July 18, 2018, 07:37:42 AM

Quote from: Alex_Sr on July 18, 2018, 05:16:33 AM

74% - 0 post - Brand new

I'm pretty sure many of these accounts are owned by spammers, waiting to be needed to run a spambot. I would be in favour of banning all accounts with 0 posts a month after creation.

Quote from: John_BAKA on July 18, 2018, 06:53:37 AM

Hi, I am a University student in Hong Kong. I am studying economics. Now, I am doing my honor project which is about the relationship between bitcoin price and Internet variables. The data of Forum Statistics is very useful for my project. Can provide the daily data? Thx

What data do you need exactly?
This sounds like an interesting subject that deserves it's own thread to publish your findings from start to end. If you create one, please PM me the link. I may be able to help you with some of your data requirements.

No, why ban all accounts after 1 month inactivity? That's not fair to my mind because sometimes we register to ask just one thing (usually around mining) and then we are in silent for some time. To my mind six month is adequate.
John_BAKA
I think you don't need any forum's SMF (CMS) statistics for your project, old topics and public statistic is enough.

How about the daily new posts, new topics and page views. They seems look like useful.

stompix

legendary

Activity: 2912

Merit: 6403

Blackjack.fun

Are there some statistics about the number of users that have been banned/nuked?
And in the case of banned members, about their ranks?

I think it would be interesting to see how many of the freshly registered users are shown the exit door daily.

I have a feeling that each time the mods are following the lists of LoyceV and others, after a few hours the number of fresh registrations spikes again Grin

Alex_Sr

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Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Quote from: Quickseller on July 19, 2018, 12:16:32 AM

Quote from: Alex_Sr on July 18, 2018, 05:16:33 AM

Quote from: Quickseller on July 18, 2018, 02:04:03 AM

I am curious to know the number of registrations of accounts that have actually made at least say 10 posts, and the number of people that have made their 10th post by month.

[...]

The calculation was made on the basis of a sample of 500 accounts registered from 1 to 19 June 2018 (the age of all accounts is more than 4 weeks)

Why do you think those 500 accounts are representative of all registered accounts?

The sample began with 100 accounts:
Sample 100:
79% - 0 post - Brand new
7 % - 1 post
3 % - 2 post
4 % - 10 post and more

Sample 200:
75% - 0 post - Brand new
8 % - 1 post
4 % - 2 post
5 % - 10 post and more

Sample 250:
73,6% - 0 post - Brand new
8,0 % - 1 post
4,0 % - 2 post
5,2 % - 10 post and more

I think the error in the sample of 500 accounts is no more than 0.5-1%

Quickseller

copper member

Activity: 2996

Merit: 2374

Quote from: Alex_Sr on July 18, 2018, 05:16:33 AM

Quote from: Quickseller on July 18, 2018, 02:04:03 AM

I am curious to know the number of registrations of accounts that have actually made at least say 10 posts, and the number of people that have made their 10th post by month.

[...]

The calculation was made on the basis of a sample of 500 accounts registered from 1 to 19 June 2018 (the age of all accounts is more than 4 weeks)

Why do you think those 500 accounts are representative of all registered accounts?

I am most curious to see how many users make their first 10 posts, by month and compare this to the overall number of accounts registered to look for trends of entities possibly creating many accounts that are not used.

In general, “active” users is a more useful stat than “users” (that includes those who are not/never active).

shield132

hero member

Activity: 2352

Merit: 905

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Quote from: LoyceV on July 18, 2018, 07:37:42 AM

Quote from: Alex_Sr on July 18, 2018, 05:16:33 AM

74% - 0 post - Brand new

I'm pretty sure many of these accounts are owned by spammers, waiting to be needed to run a spambot. I would be in favour of banning all accounts with 0 posts a month after creation.

Quote from: John_BAKA on July 18, 2018, 06:53:37 AM

Hi, I am a University student in Hong Kong. I am studying economics. Now, I am doing my honor project which is about the relationship between bitcoin price and Internet variables. The data of Forum Statistics is very useful for my project. Can provide the daily data? Thx

What data do you need exactly?
This sounds like an interesting subject that deserves it's own thread to publish your findings from start to end. If you create one, please PM me the link. I may be able to help you with some of your data requirements.

No, why ban all accounts after 1 month inactivity? That's not fair to my mind because sometimes we register to ask just one thing (usually around mining) and then we are in silent for some time. To my mind six month is adequate.
John_BAKA
I think you don't need any forum's SMF (CMS) statistics for your project, old topics and public statistic is enough.

Thirdspace

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Activity: 1232

Merit: 738

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Quote from: LoyceV on July 18, 2018, 07:37:42 AM

Quote from: Alex_Sr on July 18, 2018, 05:16:33 AM

74% - 0 post - Brand new

I'm pretty sure many of these accounts are owned by spammers, waiting to be needed to run a spambot. I would be in favour of banning all accounts with 0 posts a month after creation.

probably most of them are already barred from posting because of proxyban
I also believe proxyban is one factor that drives the registration numbers high
but of course this is a result from spammers get banned, thus evil point added to those bad IPs

spammer get banned >> mark bad IP >> new registration >> add evil point on the same IP
the faster and more frequent they get banned on various IPs,
the more IPs get flagged, the more accounts created and abandoned due to proxyban

LoyceV

legendary

Activity: 3290

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Thick-Skinned Gang Leader and Golden Feather 2021

Quote from: Alex_Sr on July 18, 2018, 05:16:33 AM

74% - 0 post - Brand new

I'm pretty sure many of these accounts are owned by spammers, waiting to be needed to run a spambot. I would be in favour of banning all accounts with 0 posts a month after creation.

Quote from: John_BAKA on July 18, 2018, 06:53:37 AM

Hi, I am a University student in Hong Kong. I am studying economics. Now, I am doing my honor project which is about the relationship between bitcoin price and Internet variables. The data of Forum Statistics is very useful for my project. Can provide the daily data? Thx

What data do you need exactly?
This sounds like an interesting subject that deserves it's own thread to publish your findings from start to end. If you create one, please PM me the link. I may be able to help you with some of your data requirements.

John_BAKA

newbie

Activity: 2

Merit: 0

Hi, I am a University student in Hong Kong. I am studying economics. Now, I am doing my honor project which is about the relationship between bitcoin price and Internet variables. The data of Forum Statistics is very useful for my project. Can provide the daily data? Thx

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Quote from: Quickseller on July 18, 2018, 02:04:03 AM

I am curious to know the number of registrations of accounts that have actually made at least say 10 posts, and the number of people that have made their 10th post by month.

74% - 0 post - Brand new
8% - 1 post
3% - 2 post
6% - 10 posts and more
3% - 30 posts and more
1% - 40 posts and more

The calculation was made on the basis of a sample of 500 accounts registered from 1 to 19 June 2018 (the age of all accounts is more than 4 weeks)
Start - https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/giftpeters-2171231
1: 2171231 (Date Registered: June 01, 2018, 12:00:33 AM)
2: 2171331
...
500: 2221131 (Date Registered: June 19, 2018, 11:31:01 AM)

P.S. Sorry for my English

Quickseller

copper member

Activity: 2996

Merit: 2374

I am curious to know the number of registrations of accounts that have actually made at least say 10 posts, and the number of people that have made their 10th post by month.

DabLjat

member

Activity: 193

Merit: 70

The chart of registrations resembles the dynamics of the bitcoin exchange rate

TryNinja

legendary

Activity: 2758

Merit: 6830

Quote from: spokewsa on July 17, 2018, 09:02:22 AM

What is the reason why forum stats are not visible for 2018 ?

Most likely because it was using too much of the forum's process.

Quote from: spokewsa on July 17, 2018, 09:02:22 AM

Also, can someone from staff confirm if spam account registrations have reduced in last one week or so ?

I doubt. Why would it? Jr. Members still can join most of the shitbounties announced in the forum. And it only takes 30 days to become one.

spokewsa

newbie

Activity: 2

Merit: 0

What is the reason why forum stats are not visible for 2018 ? Also, can someone from staff confirm if spam account registrations have reduced in last one week or so ?

Alex_Sr

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Quote from: Harlot on July 16, 2018, 05:52:32 AM

What could be more interesting is knowing how many of those new members are still active and posting here in the forum because I know a lot of them have abandoned their account by now.

Yes, that would be very interesting. But it is very difficult to calculate manually.

Harlot

hero member

Activity: 1806

Merit: 672

So I am concluding that the merit system didn't hinder people from creating an account here in the forum as it has been consistent all through out from 2017-2018. The only number jumping is when the bull run is happening from December to January and it has only drop after that. What could be more interesting is knowing how many of those new members are still active and posting here in the forum because I know a lot of them have abandoned their account by now.

Alex_Sr

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Activity: 840

Merit: 962

HOLD BITCOIN! Fiat - SCAM!

Quote from: DdmrDdmr on July 16, 2018, 04:59:04 AM

On forum profiles there is a recent one published this week by mazdafunsun: Truth about bitcointalk users 2.0 . He focused on profiles while you've focused on registration dates.

I just translated my topic created in may, 2018
Cтaтиcтикa peгиcтpaций нa Bitcointalk

Quote from: DdmrDdmr on July 16, 2018, 04:59:04 AM

Can you explain why you are calling your stats alternative? (I guess you scrapped all user profiles to do it).

Alternative because there are already official

DdmrDdmr

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 10802

There are lies, damned lies and statistics. MTwain

Comparing your stats to the forum’s oficial stats (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats) there are a few discrepancies:

-   Jan and Feb 2017 are inverted between your stat and the official one.
-   August and October 2017 are off by 1
-   November 2017 is off a few (97 344 vs 97 286 official)
-   December 2017 is off quite a bit (191 537 vs 63 756 official)

December’s number of registered users seems a bit small on the official stats, considering that BTC peaked on the 16th of December, so I always wondered if they were correct for December 2017. I've just seen that, oddly enough, they only go up to the 13 of December (clicking the detail on the official Stats), so yours seem coherent with events.

Forum official stats are not available for some reason for 2018.

Can you explain why you are calling your stats alternative? (I guess you scrapped all user profiles to do it).

On forum profiles there is a recent one published this week by mazdafunsun: Truth about bitcointalk users 2.0 . He focused on profiles while you've focused on registration dates.

Alex_Sr

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Statistics of user registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019

2017

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
January	12 677	936 822	1,43%	First user of Jan, 2017
February	13 354	950 176	1,33%	First user of Feb, 2017
March	14 760	962 853	1,53%	First user of Mar, 2017
April	15 807	977 613	1,62%	First user of Apr, 2017
May	23 978	993 420	2,41%	First user of May, 2017
June	32 733	1 017 398	3,22%	First user of Jun, 2017
July	41 011	1 050 131	3,91%	First user of Jul, 2017
August	42 254	1 091 142	3,87%	First user of Aug, 2017
September	46 186	1 133 396	4,08%	First user of Sep, 2017
October	89 444	1 179 583	7,58%	First user of Oct, 2017
November	97 344	1 269 026	7,67%	First user of Nov, 2017
December	191 537	1 366 370	14,02%	First user of Dec, 2017
Total:	621 085

2018

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
January	224 576	1 557 907	14,42%	First user of Jan, 2018
February	112 212	1 782 483	6,30%	First user of Feb, 2018
March	97 644	1 894 695	5,15%	First user of Mar, 2018
April	86 898	1 992 339	4,36%	First user of Apr, 2018
May	91 993	2 079 237	4,42%	First user of May, 2018
June	77 683	2 171 230	3,58%	First user of Jun, 2018
July	69 840	2 248 912	3,11%	First user of Jul, 2018
August	54 384	2 318 752	2,35%	First user of Aug, 2018
September	45 362	2 373 136	1,88%	First user of Sep, 2018
October	39 354	2 418 498	1,60%	First user of Oct, 2018
November	35 127	2 457 852	1,41%	First user of Nov, 2018
December	23 504	2 492 979	0,93%	First user of Dec, 2018
Total:	958 575

2019

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
January	22 234	2 516 483	0,88%	First user of Jan, 2019
February	16 202	2 538 716	0,63%	First user of Feb, 2019
March	18 932	2 554 918	0,74%	First user of Mar, 2019
April	17 910	2 573 850	0,69%	First user of Apr, 2019
May	24 472	2 591 760	0,94%	First user of May, 2019
June	22 357	2 616 232	0,85%	First user of Jun, 2019
July	18 913	2 638 589	0,71%	First user of Jul, 2019
August	16 452	2 657 502	0,62%	First user of Aug, 2019
September	14 561	2 673 954	0,54%	First user of Sep, 2019
October	17 891	2 688 515	0,66%	First user of Oct, 2019
November	16 356	2 706 406	0,60%	First user of Nov, 2019
December	17 600	2 722 762	0,64%	First user of Dec, 2019

2020

Month	Registered	Total at the beginning of the month	% increase	First user of the month
January	13 620	2 740 362	0,49%	First user of Jan, 2020
February	??	2 753 982	??	First user of Feb, 2020

100 000 user has been registered April 14, 2013, 11:49:44 PM

500 000 user has been registered March 31, 2015, 05:46:08 AM

1 000 000 user has been registered May 11, 2017, 09:12:46 AM

2 000 000 user has been registered April 03, 2018, 10:30:32 AM

74% - 0 post - Brand new
8% - 1 post
3% - 2 post
6% - 10 posts and more
3% - 30 posts and more
1% - 40 posts and more

Topic: Statistics of user registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2020 (Read 1801 times)