Topic: stolfi spams sec about bitcoin etf ... again (Read 425 times)

https://www.sec.gov/comments/sr-batsbzx-2016-30/batsbzx201630-20.pdf

"Theoretically, in the absence of speculative trading, the price P of a
unit of a currency (in USD, say) is related to the volume V of
payments done with it (in USD/day), the time T between reuses of the
same currency unit (in days), and the number N of currency units in
circulation, by the equation P = V x T / N.
For bitcoin, in the distant future when all coins have been mined, N
would be 21 million BTC. At present, it is about 17 million BTC. Using
a generous estimate of V = 10 million USD/day for legal payments, and
T = 17 days, we get P = 10 USD/BTC."

I'm no economist, but it looks like he's put lots of opinions into this data.
The data from blockchain.info says V is more like 200,000,000usd/day
Stolfi's V is either just exchange volume or he's suggesting that only 1/20 of the bitcoin economy is 'legal'.
P=usd flow/btc flow = 200000000/(btc velocity*btc money supply) = 200000000/(1/17*17000000) = 200usd

The T=17 seems on the low side as well. I've calculated that many times and obtained values in the range 20-40 days. Another factor of 2 or so onto the price - 400usd

Restricting to legal payments reduces this, but involves an opinion (and may not even be a valid argument in the submission).

Am I on the wrong track?
Thoughts?

edit: After reading further (comments on question 6a), I see he does indicate that he believes the 'legal' payment component of the volume is 5% or so. So the 10usd price he arrives at above is the 'legal' price, w/e that means. Lol.