Topic: Stop comparing BITCOIN on 2017 & 2021. It will never be same again (Read 351 times)

Those are only speculations. The fact the time bitcoin got popular now, either has been bought by Tesla, and other Huge bank on US seems just coincidence. You can't say it would be 6 digit for this year or 7 digit in the future. If you are really think bitcoin would become 7 digit on 2024, you don't need to sell any bitcoin and keep accumulate them ,do you?

the bitcoin market bullrun in 2017 was completely different from the one that we are just witnessing in 2021. because the bitcoin price patterns in 2017 were not the same as the current bitcoin price patterns that we are just seeing in this year 2021. Quick note: the bitcoin bullrun in 2017 was started from October to December of that year, and the bitcoin bullrun in 2021 was started since November 2020 up to date, and no one knows when exactly the market will tank!

You sound like that you are coming across the people who are expecting market to fall up to $10k or even $5k but honestly I am the one who expect the repeating of 2017 in 2021 in terms of growth levels but not in price ranges. I mean we had 20x growth in 2017 and I expect 10x to 20x growth in 2021 as well. This is the way I do compare 2017 and 2021; so far I am good and doing profitable with my speculation.

I would say this year going to be similar to all previous bull years for bitcoin markets. This year we are going to experience  6 digits for the first time like how we did in 2017 with 5 digits (in 2013 with 4 digits). This way we need to wait till 2024 to experience the 7 digits as per my speculations.

Absolutely irrelevant comparing what happened in 2017 and 2021, because the increase in the price of Bitcoin that occurred was very different
in the two years. What happened in 2017 was indeed hype and finally there was a panic sell, finally there was a very deep massive dump.
Meanwhile, the increase in Bitcoin this year is healthier, because many institutions are investing in Bitcoin for the long term. Makes Bitcoin
fundamentals very strong and prevents a very deep dump like the one in 2017. Therefore the bullish trend is still ongoing from the end of 2020
until now, this proves that Bitcoin did not experience what happened in 2017. And I am very optimistic that Bitcoin price can still go higher this year,
and the target price of $ 100k in this year is very likely to be achieved.

For those who had lost into that bubble burst back in 2017 situation then its unavoidable thing to be done not for you to look back on what happened in the past.You are right that you cannot

blame people on not to do so because things that give out some serious impact into one's self would always be remembered no matter what but when it comes to changes then
there would  really a thing because we cant just see this market to have no improvement at all.

Adoption and recognition had risen up and this isnt something like into those older years.

You know where is the real problem? They took a loan or anything which didn't used their "cold money", that's their biggest problem. They were thought they could be a magicianz turned few bucks to few hundred or even few thousand from investing in bitcoin , trying to get rich as soon as possible aka quick money

History rarely repeats itself, but it often rhymes or something like that :p   2017 was followed by a year of dollar rising which Im not sure we'll get, dollar is a bit higher in this moment.    I'd agree we'll generally see negatives in future beyond current optimism, my last look I thought 30k to 20 but that'd be a place to buy into.   That much alone would be surprise right now, if we go any further then the recent low it'll be a greater sell then any prior this year because we didnt exceed the 50 day average so far.   If we push past what people are hoping to be reliably bought then we have to repeat and reform the bottom prices, I reckon thats normal to do more then just only going up.
   This weekend we're pushing past the weekly average, if it can stay confirming above there then its going higher but my guess is more ranged right now.

So indirectly you are saying that this time is different and we will never see lower prices of bitcoin ever again ? I doubt it.
It's confirm that bitcoin won't go below 20,000$ because as per history bitcoin never goes below the last market cycle all time high. But still bitcoin can reach 250,000$ and then retrace back to 40,000$ in multi year bear market.

Well, it is comparable in that it is a bull run in the four year halving driven market cycles, just like 2013 and 2017. This is why 2021 is compared to 2013 and 2017.

To the OP's point we won't see prices in the range of last cycle ever again - well obviously, but nobody serious is suggesting we will, this is the NEXT cycle, the price goes up significantly on each successive market cycle.

Also, you say Bitcoin was all hype in 2017. Well, partly yeah, but it's not like there isn't plenty of hype now. There is ALWAYS lots of hype around Bitcoin because it is revolutionary and has tremendous potential and with every passing year it is making good more and more on that potential.

However, with the emergence of institutions coming into the market things are indeed different now than they were in 2017. Also the fact that most people have already heard about Bitcoin for a few years now makes the retail market behave differently than in 2013 and 2017 when they all piled in having just heard of Bitcoin for the first time and trying to get rich quick without knowing anything about it. Both of these things are leading to a much more stable market, which I think we are seeing play out right now after that initial boost off $10k that lasted a few months. We got a correction in back to back months to start this year and even after coming out of the second one in March it didn't blast off again after charting a new ATH, instead it actually dipped again which never happened in 2017. This is because the market is more stable now. Sure there's tons of short term volatility, but it's no longer 100% FOMO. Institutions by their nature are more conservative buyers and won't buy when the price has already shot up a bunch and will look for stability before getting in or building more of a position. And the retail market is much more wary now because everybody has seen a Bitcoin crash now so retail investors don't FOMO in like crazy anymore.

So yeah it's like 2017, but with a more mature market. I expect more gradual sustained growth, without the giant blow off top and huge crash and crypto winter like we are accustomed to having. Yes 2021 can be compared to 2017, but just as 2017 was comparable but different compared to 2013, so is 2021 to 2017.

Just think about it, it was 20k and dropped to 3.5k that means a 80% drop and I do not think that we will have that kind of fall ever again, however let's assume for a second that we had a 80% drop from the peak point once again, our peak point this run was 62k if I am not wrong and if you drop 80% from that the price would be 12.4k. That means even if we have a whooping huge 80% drop which is very doubtful, that means we are going to have 12.5k price at the very bottom.

We are not seeing under 10k ever again by this logic. And I can go as far as saying that I do not think that under 20k is possible neither, we are way ahead of this and we are going to keep staying this way as well. So, there is nothing common with 2018, there was way too many bitcoin drama during that period and that's why we saw bitcoin going down a lot during that period, we don't have that any more.

Many people usually look for the patterns and bet a lot on the repetition, but as previously said, in 2017 the circumstances were totally different, I think that by 2017 there were the old whales, it was not in the Paypal market, nor Elon Musk , much less Microestrategy, in addition to 2017 living conditions were different, there was no pandemic.

In 2021 it is very difficult to be guided by repetitive patterns, I do not know how much some analysts focused on chart patterns have been able to succeed, but I think they have not been successful, if they normally have a low percentage of success, now with these circumstances it will be more difficult for them.

This year at least where I live, the pandemic has become radicalized with new strains, this has caused much of the world to go back into confinement, although there are several vaccines, the virus continues to rage, and this may cause some panic in the investors. When comparing Bitcoin to gold, there was some short-term correlation, but now it has moved far away from the similar behavior that both charts had, many who are gold investors assume that gold can or will go bullish based on this positive correlation.

I don't know if you remember that many famous people like JP Morgan came out saying that Bitcoin was going down and a series of bad news, and now in 2021 JP Morgan advises not to wait for big corporations to buy Bitcoin for others to buy.

You cannot blame people, so many people lose their money and many have wiped out their investment and there are investors who even take a loan to invest, this is the scenario that they don't want to be repeated, and they look for comparison, because it's a guaranty that they will make a profit, once they see that it's not going to repeat again. 

I think people just like it that way, I do not know why and I do not know how but there are way too many people that end up comparing years, and 2014 was nothing like 2017 neither but people kept talking about the similarities there as well. Just because it went up and went down doesn't mean that every time it goes up and goes down will be exactly the same. I do not get it, what's there to like those kinds of stuff, I mean it is really not that shocking if you ask me.

I think no year is similar to other year, the only similarity in years that except that one year we have gone up almost every single year, bitcoin is a store of value coin and it will only keep going up, so there is really no rush for bitcoin to go even higher but I can promise you that bottom of each year has been higher than the previous year and that will probably continue for a very long time.

It is a different game in its entirety. We don't have the adoption we are seeing recently in the year 2017. The richest man in the world joining, hedge funds, and a lot of financial institutions in the race. We are just getting started.

Well yeah, I do agree with this.
Additionally, the pattern may be repeated, but it doesn't mean reflecting the amount or numbers will be the same.
After the highest ATH in this bullish era, Bitcoin will be sure going into a bearish market and followed by altcoins.
However, will it also reach the lower price as what happened after the previous bullish? I don't think so. It will be fallen down, but as what OP has mentioned, Bitcoin right now is something that is not just hype. there have been several adoptions, utility, and also real use cases to be used by many more merchants in the world. So, if it should fall down, the bottom price in the bearish should not be as same previously. the ATH is increasing several times than before, so, the bottom price must be higher several times than before. I am pretty sure that it will not be under $10k, really hopeful about it.

Bitcoin has been gradually being adopted worldwide, but that doesn't mean these rich people didn't make a hype for Bitcoin. Yes, Bitcoin itself isn't a hype, but these rich people are making a good hype for the cryptocurrency as a whole especially Bitcoin. The current Btc price surge is most probably caused by the exposure of Bitcoin payments from the large companies and their involvement into cryptocurrency. However, Bitcoin is more than just a hype.

Hopefully we're not going to see $30k as well but the lowest can be likely attached to $40k.

It is okay if we are comparing that in the past. There were charts and analysis that also include the past years and we can't help ourselves if look back in the past. But op is correct that this won't be the same as 2017.

Bitcoin's fundamentals are stronger this time.

You got some point!

When it comes to adoption rate and recognition then this year isnt really the same on what we do saw into those previous years specially in 2017.Its been said that pumps do happen out from nowhere.
There are no strong reasons on why the price climb up that high, there were no news of adoption which you can eventually tell for yourself that it was just on pure hype.

Unlike now that you can really see for yourself about Paypal,Elon musks and other big companies and intuitional money is already flowing into this market.This is why its really
hard to consider or to say that we would be heading back on where we do came from.

Although, dumps and corrections could really happen and its inevitable but we wont really be going back into that certain extent.

2017 was a different year in crypto. That was more than 3 years ago. With a technology which has been around for only a little more than a decade, 3 years is already a long time. I don't understand people who are still insisting that 2017 will repeat. It will not repeat. Stop with your paranoia and move on. You are all stuck in an old year whose context and circumstances are a lot different from the present. That was a traumatic experience for a lot of Bitcoin supporters but we all need to face the present and leave the past behind.

Yet people are still comparing, they still look back and discuss the 2017 experience even those who did not experience what happened in 2017, they love to make a comparison, they want a guarantee that what happened in 2017 will not happen this 2021, these are people who are not comfortable investing and always ask if it is safe to invest and what coin to invest, they will stay as newbies in the world of investing.

you have to add also, companies that are integrating crypto in their payment system. the adoption and usage today is very different from let's say 2017. we have this 50k+ level right now because there is a strong reason why it has achieved this level. because of this pandemic, a lot of these big companies realised the importance of crypto. we are in the digital age, and crypto is just right to enter mainstream. because after a decade of its existence, many people got acquainted about its advantages and most of them saw its significance when the whole world experienced the pandemic crisis.

The market demand got crazy, a reason that pushes the price of Bitcoin to keep at high rather than to move down.

Just to look at the market trend by now, the price is declining from $55k to $52k. I expecting more people to get a rush selling that might trigger a continuous drop below $50k. But talking about that it reaches back to $5k, it really hard for that, even at $10k is still out of reach. Some will think that everything is possible, well, we all know of that but the situation can't make a push to that to comeback.

Indeed, I agree with that. The current situation is really different with now. There are so many companies which support bitcoin and even make bitcoin as their investment place. This is why its price just increasing a lot even can double the previous all time high.

Different with 2017 ago, there are just few company who likes bitcoin. They just doubt about it and it can proof that bitcoin price was decreasing a lot even can touch its all time low. But now, we haven't seen a huge decrease, even there are some prediction that bitcoin will surpass $100.000 and I believe that will happen.

Maybe you are right, it will never be the same again, but the price is all about demand and supply. If this year Bitcoin pumped like crazy of course a lot of people will sell their Bitcoin for profits, huge sell it's mean huge dumped. For $5,000 and $10,000 I also believe we'll never see this price again, but for $20,000 it still possible, let's say this is the worst scenario

Oops, my mistake. $61,782 to less than $100.

I disagree with the idea that we won't see sub-$40k BTC prices anymore.

The same was said about BTC's $5-10k support zone until it absolutely tumbled down in the midst of COVID.

Short term, the markets are super irrational and we never know which direction they will possibly head in. That gives rise to the very real possibility that you will see BTC being traded at an extraordinary discount to what it's fundamental valuation is. Institutional investors and ETFs simply won't combat these short term fluctuations.

But you're right in one thing - BTC's long term fundamentals have improved exponentially and that is undoubtable.

I find myself quoting you a lot lately Lucius, because I agree with your posts.

2017 and 2021 are [surprise, surprise] different years and different
stages in Bitcoins life and a more diverse group of invstors who
hopefully have a view to HODL and not sell out at the mere sniff of
a correction towards the end of December and January making the
comparison between 2017 and 2021/22 a self fulling prophesy.

From what Muichael Saylor has been preaching, he wont be selling
any time soon.

I would think that if people decide to sell later in the year, they will
be selling into the hands of those who are buying and those Bitcoin
will be more difficult and expensive to buy back.

I do 100% agree with this. I think 2017 was very very different than what we have today. Anyone who lived during those times remember that bitcoin was good and all but it was really high for just like 1-2 months and that's it. We have been high since September and went higher and higher and higher.

People can keep trying to find some examples of why it looks so similar but the reality is that we are not as similar as you might imagine.

This bull run has been much much better, we have been doing a lot more profits and we will keep doing more as well, that is why I think it is quite clear that we should be focusing on what we have right now and not start freaking out about a potential 2018 coming very soon. I do not believe that, we are not going to see another 2018 if you ask me, we may not end up going super high from here, maybe 200k+ is not possible, but we are not going to see under 20k any time soon neither.

I hope that it doesn't want to happen again, let alone reach the lowest point in the present when ATH continues to peak, I just want to measure how in the future the price will continue to move in the direction we want so far.

The adoption in the current trend is so great the hype is always created by big people, meaning they believe that Bitcoin will become a valuable asset when large companies can make payments with it.

With Tesla now being able to buy with bitcoin, a sign that in the future bitcoin will be widely used in other fields of electronic buying and selling because institutions have started designing things like Tesla.

I only felt 2017 and 2021 bitcoin was high before I didn't really understand. 😁

We can't say that the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise all the time if there are more investors. Then everyone would assume that the price of Bitcoin will always go up because the number of investors on Bitcoin is increasing day by day.

Institutional adoption of Bitcoin in 2007 is far less that what it was attained now more investors has come on board while the numbers numerous of hodlers had risen tremendously thus demand for BTC has been on rise this year invariably responsible for the present pump in the price Elon Musk massive investment in Bitcoin has made an instant impact on it price any possibility of a replica of 2017 masdive dump should be completely ruled out this year.

Fixed your typo bro it 

We can't predict the exact price of Bitcoin all the time. It can down more than what was in 2017. But if we compare with the price then current price is much higher than the price of 2017. For better price, holders should hold bitcoin strongly.

Seeing bitcoin below $20k with the current adoption all over it is very impossible might even get to $100k soon. The 2017 hype was worth it, a lot of people who came in immediately dropped their bags and crashed the price a bit. We'd want it to the moon too.

This sounds crazy.  Either it happens to me as a play or a tragedy.  This is no coincidence, but may require focus on a post-covid 19 "new normal" life that could be a stepping stone for bitcoin being the most expensive trillion asset to be flashy more than ever.  Watch the next episode of the movie called bitcoin )

I wouldn’t say that speculation about the ETF was the reason for the 2017 pump, because if anyone forgot at the end of that year the first BTC futures appeared - Bitcoin debuts on the world’s largest futures exchange, and prices fall slightly. It's a whole other story that people at the time (and some even today) didn't know the difference between futures and ETF.

The similarity between 2017 and 2021 is that both years came after halving, the difference is that in 2017 the pump was mainly due to small investors, while now a significant role is played by large investors. The difference is more than visible, a large amount of BTC has been removed from the market, demand is constant and production has been halved compared to 2017.

You are right, but remember that everything in the Bitcoin market is possible, just as it can stay at $ 50k, if it can go even to $ 10k it is not impossible, the odds are minimal but technically possible. Obviously the circumstances in 2017 are not the same as in 2021, in addition, bitcoin has had new ATH when the world is in a pandemic, now with the new strain, panic has not taken hold of people, many are even preferring to invest in Bitcoin than the same gold.

And the FED has already said it, despite the volatility of Bitcoin they do not consider it a safe haven, but in the face of gold they even speak of a possible substitution due to the high speculation power it has in the market.

What's with this obsession with 2017?

The bubbles in 2011 and 2013 (both of them) were all just as spectacular as the one in 2017 and maybe more so.

By the time of the first 2013 bubble, even noobs should have been able to figure out from learning their history that all you need to do is hodl (it was spelled "hold" in those days).

Exactly! Instead of something like $20k to $3k, it'll be $61,782 to something less than $1,000.

Yeah this time it will be even more insane 

"This time it's different"
"We have reached a new paradigm"
"Bitcoin can't go to xxx because [insert good reason here]"

Maybe or maybe not 

Yes, definitely, 2017 bull run is very much different 4 years later. And as others have pointed out, the narrative has change as well. Of course, still a speculative asset, and very volatile. But right now, we have companies putting their funds into bitcoin as a reserve asset. We haven't seen this in 2017, and maybe we can see more of bitcoin as a store of value in the future. 2017 eventual hype and sudden burst was cause by CME and CBoE entering the picture in December of that year and after the spike to almost $20k, the bubble was burst.

I kind of agree at some point but to say that Elon Musk buying Bitcoin is totally not hyped as opposed to ETF possibility being hype? I'm not sure about that. ETF news should be more "worthy" than some guy who also pumps a memecoin and sells Tweet NFTs for fun.

I do agree 2017 rally was more hype though, but not just because of ETFs.

We all know when bitcoin on 2017 it pumped like crazy. It went almost $20k and then it falling to $3.3k as lowest price just in few months. What was the reason bitcoin went up to $20,000 back then on 2017? It was only HYPE, there was only a speculation Bitcoin ETF would be accepted, then it declined.

But now? Bitcoin is not HYPE anymore. Even Elon musk, 2nd richest in the world with one of his company, Tesla, accepting Bitcoin as one of payment recently. We also heard many ETFs already got approved and accepted, even few huge banks accepting Bitcoin and they allow their customer invested on them (Morgan Stanley & Fed).

History might be repeat, but surely it's won't be same as 2017 anymore. We won't see bitcoin at $5,000 , $10,000 or even $20,000 anymore from this year to the future