Topic: Stop giving your cheap btc to whales thanks to Wyckoff ! (Read 7251 times)

Nice post. It would be much useful for new traders who usually get panic reacting to market situations. He mentions the big whales, traders who own large volumes of shares, pump and dump the market for their benefits.Yes, whales do lot of transactions pumping the price and sell it when price goes high, and they sell their shares in large volumes, creating a fall in price , create panic among new traders and force them to sell their shares at cheaper price and they buy them in huge volumes.Yes, its the main reason, bitcoin despite falling down very speed recovered quickly and got a stable price. I am surprised how much bitcoins, that composite man,i.e., big whales will be having now.

let's say price is a car, accumulation is when you put fuel in your car and distribution the opposite. All the accumulation phasis we went during more than 1 year enabled us to see in which price zone we will ran out of fuel.

for the moment, the crash didn't impact the uptrend, rather the opposite (confirmed it again). now I don't have crystal ball, just BTC cause i am confident we will go up from there (unless some abnormal event occurs of course, no free ride).

Cup and Handle can be compatible with wyckoff analysis as it induces accumulation, it's actually a good example to highlights supply and demand zones.

its good to see people opening our eyes on the impact of selling our bitcoins for a cheap price to the whales,
i just hope more people can read this piece of info and realize that price and its existence does depend on the supply and demand chain.

wyckoff discussed in this video by Josh Olszewicz.

Just thought I'd drop that here in case anyone's interested.

Great thread! I added it to my watchlist as soon as I found it (sadly, it was just a few days ago), and it's astonishing how accurate was the method here:


I've just bought a book about Wyckoff, and I really want to dig into it! However, I have a few questions; For instance, in the quoted message, you/he talked about the price objective; what is it exactly? I mean, what is it for? Is it a time for reversals? Or maybe new accumulation phases? Or you just have to wait until a new pattern is formed after that?

And what about the recent crash? How do you think it's going to evolve? (I'm more interested about the WHY than about the price direction itself;I really want to understand the market)

Finally, how does this relate to the "cup and handle" pattern we've been seeing and hearing about all these months? Is it compatible with Wyckoff method?

I would be interested to, thanks sofar.

That was in June, it's now obsolete after late price action for which the tape needs to be studied.

Yes, Thank you for your share. I expect bitcoin will be back 1,000$ soon. maybe the price at the bottom line will be at 600$ before rising up highly.

Thanks for your analysis, Wyckoff is so cool 
Could you please check for Waves on Bittrex, 1d chart ? Seem we passed SB and soon entering in SPRING, am I right ?

Just some food for thought.  Please feel free to share your thoughts, Sandman.  Anyone else feel free as well.

The reason I have ETH, XMR and DASH on this chart with BTC is because they are more expensive than other alt coins and they are also traded in US Dollars; just as BTC is traded in US Dollars.

If you have trouble reading what is below, feel free to click this link to get to the publishing for easier reading:  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/KYs3gIYv-BASED-ON-THE-FOLLOWING-INFO-WHAT-WILL-BE-THE-NEXT-MOVE/

Yes, Sandman did an excellent job providing a couple of examples of moves C.M. makes over the course of time.  There are also many trades one can make in the shorter time frames while the long time frame [Wyckoff refers to] plays out.  It can still kind of get nerve racking at times if one sits in front of the monitor all day watching it play out.  For instance, one may see a drop during the 4h chart that frightens them.  They get emotional and begin to question their analysis.  This is part of being new to trading.  One has to always remain calm.  But most importantly, have a plan (A, B & C) if A, B or C were to occur.  It also helps to know and understand other indicators.  Such as RSI and MACD for example.  Look at them both in the Weekly, Daily, 12h, 8h, 4h and 2h.  I want to have an idea of where momentum, strength and volume are heading in the long, mid and short terms to also give an idea of what trades can be made while the Wyckoff cycles play out.  Especially, those cycles at the end of a long bear trend that end with a Selling Climax.  Look at Decred (DCRBTC) on POLO.  Just occurred.

I actually have 12 coins I'm watching at the moment.  All of which are in some part of a cycle towards a spring.  Not all will spring but most of them probably will.




And AUGUR (REPBTC)



And STEEM (STEEMBTC) just to name a few.

This is such a good thread which is showing how early adopters will probably get robbed of most  of their coins by the Composite Men (aka whales here). Looking at OP I supposed sandiman was talking about the recent activity: I got astonished when I realized he basically predicted the course of action we've seen recently.
Well done 

If one wants to learn how to navigate FX well, these are excellent videos to learn from one of the best in the business.

http://theinnercircletrader.com/Tutorials.htm

He teaches you how to get an idea of how whales will move the market and when.  Study them for about 6 months while using a demo account with play money before diving in with real money.

Also, WATCH PART #2 [FIRST] of the first group of videos at the top to get inspiration.  THEN, start from PART #1 (start over).  This will help you not only with FX, but with other trading as well.

Unfortunately not just in bitcoin trading, even in forex trading and commodity trading the innocent traders are getting trapped by professional traders by creating sudden panic by forcing them to sell off in losses. Maybe it is also part of trading, but traders without clear-cut idea facing big problems due to this types of manipulations.

Nice opening and clear explanation about the price manipulation by Composite Man that cleverly play on trading market.
Panic sell is the worst condition from people who do not know about this, sell out bitcoin just give them more advantages.
Again, who had big cash could manipulate the market, appreciate the explanation and hopefully more users understand it.

Time to pay attention.

I am not an active trader, all I do is buy when the prices are low and hold. I also intend to hold Bitcoin forever. Now I want to ask if that chart above this post is starting to look like one big giant cup and handle? If it is then would it bring us one big giant price move going up?

After introducing the Accumulation Lines and Breakout Lines, I want to show, especially after 2013, how we often have TWO Accumulation Lines between breakout lines for CM to work in a BULL market.  Which see:

Am I saying there will always be accumulation at the red lines?  No.  Have a look at May 23rd, which was the beginning of what I call a DOUBLE BREAKOUT.  MOST anytime we have a double breakout, especially with crypto currency of any sort, you can pretty much count on there being a BIG correction that ends up in a DOUBLE THROWBACK.  Meaning, we threw back not only the 2nd breakout point we crossed but also the first breakout point as well.  Which see.  In this case, the lower red accumulation line was skipped.

Double Throwbacks usually result in a flash crash, so to speak.   Not finished with this.... taking a break to eat and watch the TIDE ROLL.  I'll edit and finish this specific post when I get back.

Looking at 2013 on the Daily, one may argue to put the red line where I have now and moving the top purple breakout line to it's current location.  I've found it's easier to get more precise with what I'm going to call "ACCUMULATION LINES" later on.  Are they always used for accumulation points?  No.  Why?  Cause points of accumulation can change on the fly depending on market conditions.  Especially, if we had LONG periods of accumulation before breaking out and falling into another accumulation phase after profit taking from all the coins accumulated over a LONG period of time.

KEEP IN MIND, am I doing this on the WEEKLY?  No.  I'm doing this on the Daily to find where the composite man is working, so to speak, before breakouts on the weekly to prepare for profit taking.

The goal I'm trying to achieve is finding where the composite man wants to "work" after this previous breakout at $774.33.  I will eventually show you later on WHY I'm working so hard to figure this out once I show you from previous charts "in lower time frames"

This is where I've put major breakout levels on the weekly in purple.  I think you see what I'm up to with the red lines.  Our top two purple lines divided by a red line is UNCHARTED TERRITORY.

I'm about to do something in this forum, for the sake of experimentation, to simply encourage discussion.  I WILL START FROM SCRATCH and may take the course of several days.  As I have limited time with so many things on my plate at the moment.  This will result in numerous posts.  Buy hey, that's what this forum is for, right?  

I will begin with showing it's virtually impossible, at our current location on the weekly chart, to get a firm grasp on proper breakout levels from history in 2013.  Which see below...  Also, those breakout levels from history, if there were any, could change four years later; based on market conditions.  If one disagrees, please elaborate.  

Maybe you're wondering why so high?  They should be spread out much more than that.  I'm working towards bringing us into lower time frame for the sake of discussion.

The more i think about it, I can see where just posting the 1h chart alone could be misleading.

As well as all the abbreviation labeling that's normally done on the weekly with more details on the daily.  The 1h is something I'm working on while keeping the weekly and daily in focus.

My Weekly,

TOTALLY agree.  TOTALLY.  I'm ALWAYS checking out the big picture first on the Weekly.  Sometimes the monthly [Depending on if there is enough history for a monthly].  Some alt coins don't have enough "history."  Especially, ZEROCASH.  Yes, the bigger the timeframe the bigger the "probability."  I've found, through analysis, the "probability" does diminish if one ONLY used lower time frames.  However, that's why I mentioned the 80%.  BUT, that's also why I have other lines of resistance to assist.  No, it does not always pan out in the lower time frames.  I NEVER go below 1 hour on the chart with Wyckoff.  NEVER.  



COMPLETELY agree there.  However, I was NOT indicating that in that chart.  I'm not getting how you're drawing that conclusion?  For instance, SOME PROFIT TAKING was enacted at the $910 to $860 range FROM ALL THE COINS ACCUMULATED IN THE $700's.  Like you said, "It takes TIME and effort."  Did I imply he sold ALL his coins to make a quick buck somewhere?  I really don't think I did.  If so, I did not intend to convey that.  I'll try to be more specific next time.  You can see in the $860 to $900 range where CM would keep that range while profit taking with some of his coins before continuing with more accumulation before breaking out.  I've provided a chart below to show the VERY long accumulation phase in the upper $600's to the upper $700's.  Why can't he take some profits at the $860 to $910 range from all the "effort" he put into accumulating coins over "time?"  He also accomplished some Shaking Out at that $910 to $860 range before continuing to where he wants to take us for the BIG profit taking?  Don't mind my notes scrunched up.  I simply wanted to show the long drawn out time of accumulation in the upper $600's to $700's.

The accumulation went back even further than what is pictured.  I believe what I've provided in this image is enough though.  https://www.tradingview.com/x/2W3Ge7ff/



I think my previous explanation addresses this.



I ALWAYS monitor the WEEKLY and DAILY.  I will even analyze the MONTHLY as well if beneficial.  I never implied that but I appreciate you clarifying that for other readers who may be unaware.



TOTALLY agree.  Weis, did not promote heavily on "Anticipation" either.  He too advocates waiting for signals.  Even Wyckoff maintained an open mind rather than preconceived ideas based on his rules with emphasis on price range rather than a fixed price, with emphasis on volume of course, as well as emphasis on positions to close your bets.  He most certainly knew the importance of trend lines, support lines/ resistance lines and channels.  However, I've come to find how valuable of a tool those can be when used at lower time frames WHILE keeping the larger trend in focus from the Weekly.

It's worked for me.  I've been pleased with the results.  Maybe its been only pure luck.  Time will tell.  But still, I've been pleased with the results.



TOTALLY agree.  I do take that into account.  I'm only trying to encourage an open mind rather than having a preconceived idea.



Sure, I'll keep you updated.

EDIT:  Wyckoff noticed PATTERNS, especially on the weekly, that would pan out over a time frame under certain conditions many times over and it rewarded him and those who followed him quite well.  I'm thankful for his contributions to the trading community.  It has truly stood the test of time.  I would say his work lays the foundation for those who want to trade to build upon.  However, not every house is built the same way with the same materials.  IF every house was built the same way, the composite man would have a field day.  Ya know?  

I simply used his "foundation" to build upon and I'm putting additions on the house [So to speak] with a remodel here and there to find and anticipate patterns in bull and/or bear trends.  Wyckoff's house was certainly built with a traditional decor where I prefer a more modern decor.  Still a work in progress...  

Cheers,

ProwdClown

EDIT:  I have an idea in mind to provide an example of what I'm doing in smaller time frame WHILE keeping the BIG time frame (over all trend for that cycle) in mind.  It helps me trade with a bit more confidence knowing the high probability of what's about to occur.  I'm sleepy....      Will work on the example and post here when I'm well rested and have more time.

EDIT:  I know you're a fan of Wyckoff.  I obviously am as well.  I only want to encourage you to maintain an open mind and checkout Weis' book and his modern adaption.  Can't hurt.  It's only floating ideas around.  You might find a few things in his book and end up saying, "Now why didn't I think of that?"   

Fair points given there so i'll try to explain a bit more.

The longer the timeframe you're noticing wyckoff rules on, the bigger will be the probability that the book outcome will come to fruition. And that's not critisizing wyckoff in anyway, that's the same truth for every trading setup.

Moreover, I don't really agree with the picture you are drawing. Composite man doesn't build position to make a quick buck. it takes times and effort. Nevertheless, on your chart, he accumulates at few dollars below the point in which he sold, which would make it unprofitable including endogenous and exogenous trading costs. I do believe that the difficulties in using wyckoff in such short time frame, not to monitor previously builded position, but to trade on signals, is overwhelming and needs anticipation. Wyckoff never advocated anticipation and always waited for signals. That's the issue that happens when reading adapted books by other autors (that's why I read before wyckoff books).

Regarding difficulties on drawing such a picture on small timeframe, even wyckoff was using his wave chart to picture points of supply and demands.

Anyway, you are free to trade using your set-ups, but i'd like to know if it does respect price objective sometimes with the scenario you picture.

The following is A 1h (60) chart.  I'm applying rules here in this time frame as I would in larger time frames.  NOTE:  I NEVER use his rules in a time frame less than 1 hour candles.  Can anyone see where I see entry and exits could have been made WITH STOP LOSS to protect yourself?

Who says, Wyckoff's rules should only be used on larger time frames?  If they believe this, they are mistaken.  This 1h chart is a PRIME EXAMPLE.



There were points ALL OVER that chart where bets were placed and money was made because of ANTICIPATING moves.  I even capitalized where we poke our heads out over the breakout points and revert to shakeouts.  I ANTICIPATE the shakeout and buy the dip.  ESPECIALLY, in a bull market.  Does anyone else see these things I see?  There are many examples I could give all through here on the chart I provided.  I don't wait for just Springs and Thrusts to breakout points like some others may do.  I don't just try to capitalize where there is consolidation or accumulation.  There are MANY opportunities for profits to be taken.  Just got to jump in there and take them and play it smart while doing it with proper stop losses to keep your losses small and your gains large.

Also, did you notice I have other lines of resistance [Marked in red] for potential areas to watch for shakeouts to revert back to those red lines or throwbacks that usually take place AT those red lines on occasions?  I know, technically, most may use the term, "Throwback" to only refer to being thrown back below the breakout line rather deeply.  I also use the term, "throwback" if it's thrown back below my red resistance lines.  Everyone has their own indicators and combination of indicators for various things and situations.  I've devised other means based off resistance or support lines to keep a watchful eye on when approaching those levels because we usually have shakeouts and an occasional throwback at those lines.

I'm currently working on indicators and combinations of indicators to be used when certain conditions are met but it's it will be a while before I'm finished with it and feel confident with it.  I have too many other things on my plate right now to get into it as much as I need to.  I'm preparing 2016 taxes, doing more things with my mining rigs, adding a couple of features to my training boards for teaching telephone technicians, etc..

I have to get some more sleep.  I was awakened by an alarm to make an exit and waited to see exactly where I wanted to re enter.  Noticed I had comments on here and tradingview and took the time to respond.  yaaaaaawn.   Now I must get some more sleep.

Cheers.

ProwdClown

It's not necessarily like that.  The majority of the masses do not know and will never know.  Either out of never being exposed to the info, or being exposed to it but not picking up on ALL of it and only feel CONFIDENT with a FEW of his rules under certain situations.

I did think the same way you are thinking though... hehe

I thought of starting a Wyckoff thread in relation to bitcoin on here [A while back] but thought better of it just for the reason you specified.  There are a LOT more bit coiners on bitcoin talk than there are on Trading View.  I've only recently started sharing my own discussions about Wyckoff on trading view while trading not just bitcoin but also other alts as well.  I did not want to share on trading view until I was CONFIDENT it worked but also out of paranoia as you had mentioned.

I saw this thread the very day Sandman linked us to it from Masterluc's "Analysis" thread.  Which is a damn good thread and everyone should check out.  I bought the book and began studying it.  After a while I began WRITING ON PAPER my entry and/or exit trade with date and time as if I were actually trading real money and learned how to ANTICIPATE certain things.  It didn't take long at all to convince me.  Some people only see money making in the SPRINGS and THRUSTS.  While others see many opportunities to make trades within Wyckoff's Rules.

Happy Trading  ; )

Really?  "No point?"  Hmmmmmmm   Could have fooled me.  I've made proper entry and exit points on these moves for quite some time now.  Both on paper and real money.  The only reason I've said, "I'm trying it with CURRENT activity..." is to let you and ANYONE ELSE know they can follow me on trading view as I plot out anticipated movement.  I think you and others KNOW I have provided a link to this thread FROM TRADINGVIEW.COM.  Sandman, you did an excellent job WITH BITCOIN to give those who read a prime example of how Wyckoff's rules regarding the Composite Man are just as beneficial today WITH BITCOIN [And Alt Coins for that matter] as they were decades ago with stocks, FX pairs, etc.

Buy the book, which see [It's LITERALLY in the palm of my hand with me writing this current post]: http://imgur.com/a/0fYro  Maybe you already have the book.  I don't know.

Study it well, and maybe you can benefit from it as much as I have.  I'm not here to prove anything to you or anyone else for that matter.  I don't have to prove anything...  Not going to.  Plain and simple.  I'll keep benefitting while others draw conclusions based on what things they see and/or not see.  You can have your opinion. That's fine.  Not going to argue with you or anyone else I LINK to this thread from trading view.  I'm more than happy to have profitable discussion about Wycoff's rules.  By the way, I know you're not arguing with a tone and mean face    I'm just saying, some people get it or see more than others; while some don't.  It's that simple.

This book opened up a whole new world to my eyes that I was never seeing before.  Now I ANTICIPATE certain movements and place orders [With stop losses based on those ANTICIPATED movements] with greater than 80% accuracy every time.  WHY am I saying, "... greater than 80%?"  Because sometimes a shakeout, throwback, etc... occurred during a movement that still panned out the majority of the time.  But hey, that's what stop loss is for.

Maybe, after a while, you'll see what I have seen and will learn to ANTICIPATE.  I'm not going to sit here and invest my time trying to convince you, or anyone else for that matter, how Wyckoff's rules changed my trading for the better.  Weis' book on Wyckoff will help anyone adapt to many situations with plans within plans to keep one's losses small and their gains large.

For instance, I even ANTICIPATE shakeouts and throwbacks, ESPECIALLY at breakout points and have CAPITALIZED on many trades many times WITH CONFIDENCE.  I used to be scared as hell and end up being the one who was shaken out, so to speak.  Now, I enter trades with more CONFIDENCE [While still having stop loss activated on those trades for even MORE confidence].  But hey, if you only want to have confidence to enter where you said the following:

"At least, I wouldn't search for all events at each consolidation part, but mostly look for re-accumulation or distribution..." and "Still, no point to do so extensively (unless some weird stuff starts to happens) until we get in the price objective zone, so now we can start monitoring closely price action."

Fine, you can do that.  It's your money... You do what YOU feel comfortable and/or confident doing in regards to what knowledge you may or may not have with Wyckoff's Rules.  While others continue doing what we are comfortable and/or confident with.

Once again, I'm not here to convince you.  I'm not on Trading View making those posts to try to convince you.  There is A LOT I do not say in my posts here and on trading view for several reasons that I do not care to get into on here in public or PM or on tradingview.com.  I'm not sure how much time you have invested in Wyckoff's Rules?  For some it comes quickly.  For some it takes a bit longer.  For some, they just give up cause they simply don't understand it and cannot pick up on it for whatever reason.

haha, topics and comments like this has been around for many years, Wyckoff is also a known thing and has been around for that long. other similar things were also flying around for as long as any market has existed.

..... in the end only few listen and make profit while the rest are running around chasing their own tail.

best trading info I've seen in a long while absolutely.

but now that they know we know... now what?

Accumulation does not occur on such small timeframes  Now it is about traders and crowd fighting each other.

At least, I wouldn't search for all events at each consolidation part, but mostly look for re-accumulation or distribution.

Still, no point to do so extensively (unless some weird stuff starts to happens) until we get in the price objective zone, so now we can start monitoring closely price action.

Brother Sandiman, could you please do a recent chart for us like this one ?

Great post. Good to see this kind of analysis here.


Haha I can't believe how many times I've thought this.

Nice explanation of harmonical trading on a very visible graphic example. My hats are off to you. Its the basics to understand the concept of support, resistance and moving average.

Damn I have to admit that this method surprise me by its simplicity and accuracy.

Thank you guys!
I'll probably make another price objective from the accumulation phase we went through, but now I am studying elliot waves which could be very interessent coupled with wyckoff analysis to understand market psychology.

Right any profit taking will be met with re-accumulation because our final event of the halving hasn't even shown up yet! So people taking the profit just leaves some people to get a quick little week to 2 week trade in for a little bit of money.

I've still got a couple of cheeky buy orders in at around $230 just in case - but I count that more of a wild speculation =)

i am sorry to be blunt but this is not vague it is bullshit, last year's stable price was $230 and there is no way that bitcoin price will go down to that price ever again (not now and not ever) and even if there is a dump the price will go down to around $480-$520 and there is no way it can go lower than this.
and i have to say this is in case of a massive dump, which btw is not going to happen. any dump at this point would be small back to $650 tops and then moving back up.

Thanks for the post, it was very informative. I hope the whales didn't take too many of my BTC

This thread should be in purple with a sticker. Lots of good info to gather from here, not saying the op is 100% accurate but some good reads on this thread that most traders should read.

Great post, one which needs to be appreciated.
You have done everything to make a newbie understand how not to trade.
Hats off to you, OP.

You can see the target in my one of my post from the first accumulation phase that result in an advance to the 1000 zone, so it's not speculating on figure it's applying wyckoff method (which in this case was done by a newbie, a real wyckoff trader would probably be more accurate).

I wouldn't be surprise that the re-accumulation phase we went through would confirm this target if studied (I may do it). That's the word here, re-accumulation phases in which what you may call 'dump' could occur with the different tests events, the selling climax, lps event etc.

Thank you!

Excellent opening post, thanks for sharing that.

Slightly vague i know, we've already had a few mini dumps but what i mean buy dump is a proper dump down to the price it has been stable at for the past year give or take a few quid. Im hopeful that we can stabalise higher than what we've been at but not confident we will.

Hopefully the dump wont bring bitcoin to its knees.

Incredibly vague prediction. Define "dump".

My guess is we wont reach 1000 dollars before a dump.  Its well known that 1k is the target for alot of people to sell their bitcoins and whoever is doing the pump is well aware of this.

Target around 1000$, maybe if someone determine that we just when through a re-accumulation phase and use it to determine target price, it'll give us a more precise one and confirm the prior range.

Right now there is definitely a huge pump in the price of BTC. There is definitely going to be also a shortage in the BTC that people are willing to dump on the market very soon.

So yeah, hold your bitcoins and you'll profit a shit ton from it.

aye exactly the point ! it is all in the tape. Some today trader's using wyckoff patterns spoke about the new generation spending time on internet to find the why in a market fluctuation, when only the tape matters and already gived sign of the answer before the question appeared!!

This reminded me of at least 2 things from that classic trader book... what's it called again... ah, yeah: Reminiscences of a stock operator:

• a story about a couple of guys selling "stock manipulation services" to company owners who wanted their share price up and a market made
• the expression it's all in the tape

The Composite Man is an equivalent of what is called here a whale. I like to image it as a bunch of strong entities representing the underlying force in a market. You could also think that since human tends to have the same thinking we could be all together the Composite Man.

below a quote from stock chart for more info (http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method):

Wyckoff proposed a heuristic device to help understand price movements in individual stocks and the market as a whole: the Composite Man.

“…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.”

He advised retail traders to try to understand and play the market game as the Composite Man played it. In fact, he said that it doesn’t even matter if market “moves are real or artificial; that is, the result of actual buying and selling by the public and bona fide investors or artificial buying and selling by larger operators.” (Wyckoff RD (1937). The Richard D. Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks Wyckoff Associates; New York; Section 9M, p. 2)

Based on his years of observations of the market activities of large operators, Wyckoff taught that:

The Composite Man carefully plans, executes, and concludes his campaigns.
The Composite Man attracts the public to buy a stock in which he has already accumulated a sizeable line of shares by making many transactions involving a large number of shares, in effect advertising his stock by creating the appearance of a “broad market.”
One must study individual stock charts with the purpose of judging the behavior of the stock and the motives of those large operators who dominate it.
With study and practice, one can acquire the ability to interpret the motives behind the action that a chart portrays. Wyckoff and his associates believed that if one could understand the market behavior of the Composite Man, one could identify many trading and investment opportunities early enough to profit from them.

very interesting explanations, sandiman. Thanks a lot.

I'm having a hard time imagining what the structure of the "Composite Man" (it's not one guy, right?) might look like and how much BTC he now might have...

Except if the composite man is a fool !!

always working ?

Price objective for the accumulation pattern highlighted in the first post in between 910 (for the most risk aversive) and 1044 (for the less risk aversive).

PS: this is just price objective regarding the accumulation pattern, and it should be carefully revisited as price fluctuate.

Very new to this so i'll try to test some strategies and see what happens. Downtrend could be anticipated if you can start seeing a distribution phase on the chart, which looks the accumulation phases but reversed  




I have never say that, look at the picture at the end r0ach! Now one should try and figure out if we will enter a new TR or just go through a simple correction (btw, if you put your chart at 1D timeframe, it is hard to see a correction. I would more call that a consolidation.


Totally agree on that. one of the golden father of trading.

wow, finally we can see some valuable analysis in this board. i am sick and tired of seeing topics about price going to x and y with zero reasoning behind it.

oh and thanks for the link, it was a long read but it was worth it.

This was honestly a bullshit post.  You tried to claim there's been no corrections since the rise started.  There has already been two large corrections, but up it goes still.

Great thread, Sandiman.

You've a new friend and follower here

What I extremely like in your post is, the trend is upwards, even with correction, there is no downtrend.

Thanks for your great post and illustration

Indeed, one of Wyckoff's rules to understand price movements in individual stocks is to acknowledge the existence of the Composite Man (mostly known as "Whale" here):

“…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.”

Thus, the point of this topic is to highlight "whales" practice to the vast majority that could then earn more benefit from BTC trades (or at least not give their cheap btc to whales). This is done in the goal to continue Wyckoff work in introducing the public to the "smart money". This post would be make short, and not all relevant data would be covered in order to not lose the reader (in his/her interests, only accumulation events will be covered directly, not phases). For more information, you can use this  link.

Comparing the accumulation events of Wyckoff with the Bitfinex BTC chart using 3day range allow us to highlight each events  :




Now, let's describe each events of the accumulation phase:

-First, the preliminary support (PS), is a signal that the down-move may be approaching its end (we were consistently decreasing from the previous high of 1000$). Indeed, as you can see, buying pressure finally surge on an increased volume (nothing comparable in the previous month in term of volume).

-Then, we got the selling climax (SC), lowest point in the downward move caused by heavy panick selling (look at this huge damn volume for that time). The bad news is that all of those cheap bitcoin have been bought by the Composite Man, here again a smart investor (oh dear whales). Indeed, the price closed much higher than the bottom of that candlestick, showing that there has been some big buying pressure.

-Now start the Automatic Rally (AR), which is logical since supply force are almost inexistent, most of the people have sold their BTC, and the one that didn't will hardly do so. Notice that the top of this rally will define the upper boundary of the accumulation trading range.

-ST goes for secondary test. In means that price revisits the SC area to test the supply/demand balance at those level. If a bottom is confirmed,  you should be witnessing a decreasing volume and price spread as the market approach support in that area (damn true exept at the end, which is explained in our next event).

-Now I forgot to mention it in the graph, but it looks like our whales have been really good in that phase. Indeed, both a shakeout (beginning of july), and a Spring (around August, September) occured, misleading the public and so allowing our smart investors to acquire additional shares at a bargain price.

-After that, the large operators "test" the market and its supply force. If they face considerable supply, they'll need to acquire more BTC at these price and get rid of their competitors, if not, the price can finally start increasing.

-Now, notice how the volume increase as the price goes up around october, this is the sign of strengh (SOS) event. Sadly, the whole accumulation phases looks obvious at this point, but it still time to get some cheap btc.

-Indeed, the last point of support (LPS) is a pull back to the previous resistance level that is now the support level (last time to get some cheap btc for that ride folks!!).

-In our case come finally the "back-up" event, caracterised by both short-term profit (higher points/resistance) and a test for additional supply (area of resistance). It looks obvious now, but this back-up element precede another price mark-up.

So what now ? We are entering the phase E. Demand is now in full control, and again, the mark-up is obvious to everyone. Setbacks like shakeouts can happen, but are short-lived. We could now enter a new Trading Range including both profit taking and acquisition of additional shares (can be called "re-accumulation") by our whale friends, or now that you are aware, you!

Hope that this will help you to understand the market and not get f*ck by short-term swings (which we damn know are common in btc).

Sorry for the bad english.

EDIT:

for the next step idea ...