Topic: strategy for late adopters? [short and long term] (Read 1103 times)

My thoughts (no recommendations):

- Any money I change for bitcoin I have to be aware I could lose completely <--- yes, that is a truism.
- For the long term Sepa lag of 3 days is irrelevant.
- For the long term: I buy at localbitcoins or at an exchange, or both and just hold.
- For trading: same thing, only that occasionaly I sell some to try to make money on the swings in price.
- If you don't have much experience with trading, why not just buy and hold for the long term (by long term we are talking weeks, maybe months only). Trading is a losers game for the great majority of people in the long run. You are up against the best mathematical minds in the world.
- You can also allocate part of your money to buy some bitcoin which you will hold, and then another part of your money to trade.
- How to count the money I have: a) Write on a notebook each lot of fiat money you change for bitcoin. This allows you to know at all times how much you have invested in bitcoin so far. b) Multiply the bitcoins you hold for the current selling price (which varies constantly) to know how much the total of your bitcoins are worth. Always keep good written record of how many bitcoins you have in case they are located in separate places.

good luck !

Point of contention: the odds are against you being a late adopter. You may not be an innovator in the investment space, but you're surely a "fast follower".

Anyway. Pay attention to both, but if you believe in what the math says, over time BTC tends to appreciate vs. any fiat currency that exists today. Therefore when there is a choice to be made, you bias your trade decisions to those which result in BTC gains over those which result in gain of any given fiat. The more inflationary the fiat you're contrasting with, the stronger you do this.

There are a couple platforms that basically do this now: limit your exposure to negative events, whereby in the long run your account value increases, even if BTC itself is down at the time. Presumably you can do the same yourself, though I like having a fairly hands-off approach to the life savings. Bitcoin is 24/7 and the constant threat of loss to panic-sells, albeit temporary, used to give me night sweats. I was always 99.9% sure they weren't permanent, but (a.) what if there's a family injury and it's in a long slump, forcing me to sell down? and (b.) the feeling of disappointment knowing I missed the chance to trade and profit off the movement, sell high, rebuy low, "just because" I was sleeping? But then what is successful investment if I can't even sleep in peace? Nah, I'm happy to have it managed for me by a firm who I pay a little commission to be awake instead.

Example: Put 100 more BTC in at right at $775 (so $77.5k) before this big backslide. Despite the fact that it's not yet at the "break even" investment point, the account now sits at 167-something BTC. With BTC trading at $713 on Coinbase as of this moment, it's worth about $119.2k -- account's up both in Bitcoin (+67 BTC and +67%), *and* USD (+$41,700 or +53.8%). That much that fast is kind of an extreme case, since the market doesn't fluctuate that wildly all the time, but whenever there is movement, there is profit to be had.

In fact, that's damn near what 100 BTC would net if you sold it at the peak pre-crash. Which is the point. Use a platform that does this so you don't have to. Plus, most people are incredibly bad at making trades that increase their holdings during market movements. Play and learn with small amounts of your holdings, but if you're serious about BTC as a way to accumulate value for the future, either simply buy and hold, or invest in a platform that limits your risk like I described. Don't rely on yourself to make logical, emotionless trades with your own savings.

let's start saying i believe in btc to have a raise over the long term, actually i got some btc on some exchanges and i could even put more money in (but actually i have in other safer investment so for the moment i'm not touching that money).
actually rich people have a lot of btc and decide to sell for dimishing the size of their number of btc or they keep the btc go without selling them.

but what for people, like me, that have a certain sum available to invest but w a certain lag due to the sepa?
i should put all the money i can invest over the exchanges and then trying to trade profitably?
i sohuld put all the money i can invest over the exchanges and buy everything i could (if the situation isn't that bad) ?
i should put the money only when i'm ready to invest (so 3 days for a sepa) ?

at the end of the day how i count how much money i have? i count only btc or i count the $ ?