Studies on the Bitcoin Generalized Stock-to-Flow (S2F-G) Model: (i) Error-bars (

Baofeng

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Quote from: odolvlobo on May 14, 2023, 08:32:38 PM

Quote from: Bitcoin_Model on May 14, 2023, 05:02:47 PM

Error-bars and Training-&-Validation on the Bitcoin Generalized Stock-to-Flow (S2F-G) Model - which predicts $170K for the next (2024-28) cycle:

And when the model is invalidated again, you will compute new exponents and rename it to the Revised Generalized Stock-to-Flow (S2F-GR) Model.

Yeah, and we should already learn from the first modelling that we have, predicting the price is very difficult and as much as we factor everything we can think of to come up with another model, improved version of the first one, it is till going to be a hit or miss.

And I think we don't have complicate things, perhaps conservative prediction will be last all time high of $69,000 by 2.x.

tbct_mt2

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You don't need a model to think that if Bitcoin makes its new all time high after 2024 halving, it will be at least double from $69,000 that is the current all time high. $170,000 is about x3 from current all time high.

I think a new all time high for 2024 and 2025 will be from $120,000 to $180,000 or somewhere under $200,000. I am more keen on a lowest price, $120,000 or better $150,000.

Some Stock to Flow charts: https://charts.bitbo.io/stock-to-flow/

Compare bull markets (3 eras from 2 to 4): https://charts.bitbo.io/compare-bull-markets/

Lucius

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All those models were somewhat amusing to me, but today they are not even that anymore, and not only because they turned out to be wrong, but because over time one simply gets tired of all these speculations. Even without any model, every optimist expects that BTC price will overtake the next ATH after the next halving, but all the numbers are nothing more than mere speculation.

Some may agree that $170k is a nice number, but to me it somehow seems modest, because many expect much more from Bitcoin in the next 4+ years.

odolvlobo

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Quote from: Bitcoin_Model on May 14, 2023, 05:02:47 PM

Error-bars and Training-&-Validation on the Bitcoin Generalized Stock-to-Flow (S2F-G) Model - which predicts $170K for the next (2024-28) cycle:

And when the model is invalidated again, you will compute new exponents and rename it to the Revised Generalized Stock-to-Flow (S2F-GR) Model.

Bitcoin_Model

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Error-bars and Training-&-Validation on the Bitcoin Generalized Stock-to-Flow (S2F-G) Model - which predicts $170K for the next (2024-28) cycle:

https://medium.com/@bitcoin.modeling/studies-on-the-bitcoin-generalized-stock-to-flow-s2f-g-model-i-error-bars-ii-training-395c7a647d4

Studies on the Bitcoin Generalized Stock-to-Flow (S2F-G) Model: (i) Error-bars (ii) Training & Validation

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Topic: Studies on the Bitcoin Generalized Stock-to-Flow (S2F-G) Model: (i) Error-bars ( (Read 88 times)