Topic: Successful vs unsuccessful bitcoin securities (Read 2991 times)

More failed securities then successful, LABCOIN!!!

Here's a handy list of stuff discontinued on MPEx.

I think this is a very interesting project, but I don't think this can be calculated so easily.

The thing is, as we know, BTC price against fiat fluctuates very much. If I had, for example, bought shares for 1 BTC when it was worth $10 and gotten 0.5 BTC out of it when 1 BTC was $100, this would technically be a 50% loss, yet it would be almost 400% gain if we take into account the buying power of the returned profits. The same is true the other way around — if I invested 1 BTC when the price was $266, and got back 2 BTC when it was worth $100, it would technically be a positive return, but it would still be negative in terms of buying power.

While I agree that the BTC rate should not matter if I bought the shares for BTC, this is simply not the case. Most securities have to convert investors BTC into fiat in order to do something. Therefore, investing into most BTC securities is the equivalent of trading your BTC for fiat and investing said fiat in the company.

For example, if a mining company fails to meet their goals because of a supplier, and wants to get a refund from them to initiate a buy-back in the benefit of their investors, they will still, at most, get back the fiat equivalent of BTC they spent at the moment of spending.

Someday (hopefully soon) upstarts will be able to buy the stuff they need with BTC, and the providers of that stuff will be able to pay in BTC to their suppliers, workers and everyone else. Then the conversion rate will not matter much and, most likely, it will also not fluctuate much. Until that happens, investing into most securities is still basically selling your BTC and investing fiat into the upstart, even if it doesn't seem so.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying securities shouldn't strive to be profitable in BTC, as long as they are profitable in fiat. I am just pointing out my opinion that, in the big picture, it is the actual value, or buying power, that matters.

Werent 40K of those reserved for bitfountain?

A lot of IPO buyers here (or even in the real world stock markets) are not 'investors', since they are expecting to sell them quickly at 2x or 3x IPO price.

For AM:

If I am not wrong, they issued 200K shares at 0.1BTC, and the dividend up till now is more than 0.5 (it's not difficult to get the dividend history). So the profit ratio is more than 500%.

2013-10-25 09:20   ฿ 1.39789956   373   0.00374772   COMPLETE
2013-10-17 10:15   ฿ 2.73023268   677   0.00403284   COMPLETE
2013-10-10 01:43   ฿ 139.69505568   28741   0.00486048   COMPLETE
2013-10-04 19:47   ฿ 231.06529527   28871   0.00800337   COMPLETE
2013-09-26 08:57   ฿ 255.40751925   29025   0.00879957   COMPLETE
2013-09-19 09:27   ฿ 299.66880390   30974   0.00967485   COMPLETE
2013-09-11 22:49   ฿ 419.41155912   30939   0.01355608   COMPLETE
2013-09-05 00:53   ฿ 431.18523744   30707   0.01404192   COMPLETE
2013-08-28 22:34   ฿ 376.70805060   30380   0.01239987   COMPLETE
2013-08-22 02:29   ฿ 360.79287132   29428   0.01226019   COMPLETE
2013-08-15 02:47   ฿ 581.38948369   27721   0.02097289   COMPLETE
2013-08-08 00:23   ฿ 687.53374245   27981   0.02457145   COMPLETE
2013-08-01 08:21   ฿ 483.41721208   26006   0.01858868   COMPLETE
2013-07-24 23:52   ฿ 610.93044093   25393   0.02405901   COMPLETE
2013-07-18 02:00   ฿ 695.99218404   27437   0.02536692   COMPLETE
2013-07-11 02:39   ฿ 546.32991655   26323   0.02075485   COMPLETE
2013-07-03 19:59   ฿ 560.52004050   24402   0.02297025   COMPLETE
2013-06-27 00:13   ฿ 457.03543158   23582   0.01938069   COMPLETE
2013-06-20 02:02   ฿ 420.46998732   23229   0.01810108   COMPLETE
2013-06-12 22:15   ฿ 823.77172944   22704   0.03628311   COMPLETE
2013-06-06 07:43   ฿ 878.67500358   23034   0.03814687   COMPLETE
2013-05-30 08:31   ฿ 570.98149548   21516   0.02653753   COMPLETE
2013-05-23 07:01   ฿ 390.46812540   18735   0.02084164   COMPLETE
2013-05-15 20:36   ฿ 528.61829130   14593   0.03622410   COMPLETE
2013-05-08 20:13   ฿ 152.87585529   13791   0.01108519   COMPLETE
2013-05-02 06:51   ฿ 91.97099990   12506   0.00735415   COMPLETE
2013-04-24 20:56   ฿ 89.86084312   11624   0.00773063   COMPLETE
2013-04-17 19:26   ฿ 71.40806268   10249   0.00696732   COMPLETE
2013-04-10 23:20   ฿ 70.28684325   10105   0.00695565   COMPLETE
2013-04-03 22:05   ฿ 14.75307469   5773   0.00255553   COMPLETE
2013-03-28 01:15   ฿ 23.94105000   6342   0.00377500   COMPLETE
2013-03-25 09:45   ฿ 30.72461832   4092   0.00750846   COMPLETE
2013-03-20 19:35   ฿ 81.91976102   3151   0.02599802   COMPLETE
2013-03-13 19:30   ฿ 63.53240600   2671   0.02378600   COMPLETE
2013-03-10 06:25   ฿ 1.30000000   1000   0.00130000   COMPLETE
2013-03-08 21:15   ฿ 10.50000000   1000   0.01050000   COMPLETE
2013-03-06 20:05   ฿ 6.82202088   356   0.01916298   COMPLETE

Its true that in the "real world" most startups fail, but you shouldnt look at that percentage. Ive recently seen the stats of a local business angel network, only one out of six funded projects is successful, yet overall the angel investors still averaged 20+% profit per year. The number of assets isnt important, its the ratio of money invested vs money lost. Thats why it would be interesting to list bitcoin securities along with the actual numbers. But if no one else is gong to dig up some numbers, this wont go anywhere.

It might provoke people to make just a little more thought and due diligence before believing any old rubbish that is spouted with an IPO, when they realise thats lots of IPOs cause losses.

I would split it into 4 categories:

1. Proven profits = divs paid incl any buyback already exceeds IPO price. eg SDice and AM

2. Proven value = divs + current price exceeds IPO price ie you have not received them yet but could cash out at a profit

3. Likely loss = divs + current price is lower than IPO ie if you closed out now you'd be down

4. Proven loss = company closed and divs + payout was less than IPO (you lost BTC)

Good that you want to make some statistics but I am wondering what your end goal is. There have been some hilarious mismanagement in cryptocurrency securities but in the broader market most companies fail, so I'm not sure what this analysis will help with.

There are successful Bitcoin securities?? 

I like this. Good idea.

Im ignoring share price, ongoing securities that havent paid dividends anywhere near their IPO price wouldnt be listed as success or failure, unless its very obvious they will / will not return their IPO price to their investors. Heck, Im not even listing labcoin yet .

IM curious how many bitcoin securities ended up paying their investors more than was invested originally.  With your help, Id like to compile a list.

Successful means the asset issuer returned to its investors more than the IPO price either through dividends or through buy back, so I am not interested in reading how you successfully flipped some shares. If you can, please list the amount of BTC raised through IPO and how much was returned.

I will include ongoing securities only if the outcome is already clear. To get this list started:

Successful

SatoshiDice:
raised 320,000 BTC (not sure if all shares were sold at 0.0032?)
returned to shareholders:  423,865 (350K buyback, rest in dividends)
Profit ratio: 32%

AsicMiner:
raised 16,000 BTC (?)
returned to shareholders:  80,000
Profit ratio: 400%

Unsuccessful

GigaMining
raised (?)
returned to shareholders:  ?
Profit ratio:?

BTCS&T
raised (?)
returned to shareholders:  ?
Profit ratio:?