Topic: Sudden fall in bitcoin price after successful halving, Post-halving prediction. (Read 565 times)

It sounds like miners have making this way to become profitable unlike they get in mining. And it looks like the whales are not in control with market today but people are looking into the miner's cause. But what I see here is that almost all of us have not intention to sell their Bitcoin and this could help to fasten the recovery.
I believe that many we're expecting high during halving but the situation seems too different and that we have to accept.  

Not true necessarily, large reserves of BTC are a requirement for major trading.   The most obvious or common example is casinos which require a float to cover bets but many estabslishments while profitable need BTC to cover the trade everyday.   If Bitcoin is expanding and not impacted by this virus contraction meta then the miners are correct and do not have to sell to market in plain orders but can pass on coins in bulk in private arrangements and deals and that might well happen.

If the talks about the miners waiting for the halving before selling which caused the increase is true, that means we are waiting for a huuuuge drop eventually. I don't know if that rumor is true or not, and even if it is true that means we still don't know how long they will wait, maybe that dump was them and we are already over that, maybe they will sell like months later, I don't know whats going on, and I can't say I have any insider information neither.

However one thing is for sure, we are going to see some dump because price can't really skyrocket from day one unless there is some speculation going on. I see that dump not going for too long though, I see it doing a bit for a while but recovering after a while as well, we are going to see a yearly high this summer for sure.

I see we have had another dump, and there think the correction has a bit further to go. I'm bullish for the second half of this year, so I'm going to look for some chances to restart accumulating. In the meantime, there should be some good chances to try a bit of scalping.

There is a news article I read around a week ago that says most of the Bitcoin miners are keeping their Bitcoins days prior to halving. I cannot confirm the veracity of that claim though.

Anyway, I think the miners are fully aware of the halving to come. They have braced themselves for that. If they have the capacity to somehow influence the prices, they might. It will be to their advantage if the price remains somewhat higher than if they would just leave it falling down.

The rest of the miners who might get caught with net losses due to the halving don't have to sell their Bitcoins cheaper. They can always wait for the pump. But they have the option to just stop their operation temporarily if the losses continue.

3k is possible in the context of a double bump in the curve to this virus effects.   If a second wave was worse then the first as in the flu deaths of a hundreds years ago then that will surprise many and knock back the recovery seen now in many prices.    That should not be happening with modern technology and understanding that we have but some will insist on ignoring all good advice and carry on until they catch and spread the virus to others, there's no doubt the greater free association coming up will result in a rise in cases and deaths, but how much we aren't sure.
  The reason that matters for BTC price is the deflation and fear factor is a natural contraction to the economy and tightening to monetary velocity, usually that leads to lower prices everywhere.  It  could be a shock despite us knowing the nature of the danger now, the ease at which is spreads and damages people is still not pin pointed and we don't have a solution till 2021 so I'm not wildly bullish.

I am more on the positive side as well, going upward in the next coming weeks or months. The sudden fall, though we were not expecting that to happen this early, is very possible to happen as big whales maybe are doing some sell off, but they will buy again. I don't think we will go back to $3k again. Even if we are still in pandemic, btc survives and trying to get back. It is really interesting what will happen after this halving, the next 24 hours will be fascinating to follow, what will be the movement in the market...

Having those precautions isnt bad but those are way too deep and come to think that;

Bitcoin/crypto market isnt correlated with Stock/forex market
Pandemic isnt really that much an issue

if you do try to look the market condition even into those circumstances above then you can say that we're doing pretty well here
in crypto space.

Going to 3 digit price is unlikely to happen.We arent hoping for fast breaking that ATH but we do hope for at least some good numbers
ahead.

I think we are going to visit $3k again after the halving.

Three digits is very likely to happen at the end of the year, due to bitcoin not recovering two thirds of the ATH, needed for triggering the bull market.

Also there is the plandemic, and people letting their liberties being taken away by the upcoming global tyranny. This is having a heavy impact on the price, as bitcoin is now correlated with the stock markets.

A 100-year bear market is very likely to happen. I hope that I'm wrong, since I'm still long in bitcoin and doing a inverted DCA strategy, just for precaution.

This is not what market wanted, nor it was what it expected neither. This is basically just correction, we have to accept the fact that we got high too quickly once again and whenever bitcoin increases too quickly that causes it to drop as well. I have an idea why that happens but I can't prove it. I think the price falls about 10-20% whenever it increases super quickly, because there is this market and the market is known and it goes up and down slightly and that is the regular days right?

Well, when someone buys a ton and stops buying there, people see this as potentially to sell without losing and they sell, buy lower. So, basically the increases IS the cause of the drop. If we went up slowly without giving too much change, we could have stayed higher but since it was quick, we also dropped.

After that hard dump there is a slight recovery on the prices but now I can feel the reversal of the market which I was expected only after halving.So if prices fall down further then how this will affect the miners towards halving event? All miners will be forced to sell for cheaper prices.

when there was an insident involving the general of Iran, people hypothesized that they would see a war and the price of bitcoin started to rise, but had difficulties to overcome the $10,500 and whenever tried to exceed the $10,000 it dropped back to $8100, it seems that now with the manipulation of whales the price has not managed to exceed $10,000 and as there is also nothing to motivate people to buy many bitcoin, so the price will probably fall below $6500 in the coming months


dropped $1400 in just 30 minutes

The big thing is consensus, when everyone agrees its dangerous in terms of possible reversal etc.    I think the example of too many people standing one side of a rowing boat is a good explanation of why it occurs.   So yea this halvening event is overplayed most likely, I've said that a few times because I'm quite certain only over time does the block reward in adjustment alter the market supply.   Its tightening eventually but for next few months we dont see much alteration exception in speculation and perception across the whole range of market participants.

In days counting, having will come and we're almost there.
I was so shocked seeing the price of Bitcoin this morning when I woke up, it was drastically down. I almost tempted to cut my losses but I realized maybe it will have a resistance again. And I'm right, I saw right at this moment that Bitcoin price heading upward.

We really don't know what will happen when halving successfully occurred, but one thing I'm sure it will have a huge impact on the Bitcoin price but ain't know if it is downward or upward. Holding until your profit was there is enough for me.

We will see to it. Probably that is a good plan.

Ok so "the sound like a good plan" part, got me laughing out of control because that was exactly what I was planning for, well said. Already planned to sell anytime within today if the price can't cross the $10k price mark but as always the market was way ahead of me. The market always has a way of getting us all surprised, imagine we praising bitcoin for gaining over $1k in just 24hrs and few days later it drops over $1.5k in just minutes.

Guess those who FOMO after that impressive run in anticipation of more price increase got disappointed with the sudden paused in price then FUD step in. Nevertheless the market will be interesting to watch in the few days remaining and those traders that will be fortunate to predict the market movement almost or accurately will make some decent profit.

Only a minority expected a halving dump, before or afterwards. Sentiment has been ridiculously bullish, with a strong majority predicting higher prices both before and after the halving. The direction of maximum pain was down, so that's where the market went.


Agreed. Unless today's high is broken, there's not much reason to be bullish short term. There was massive volume on that dump candle, and the market was (and still is) heavily long. Lots of trapped bulls now.

If bulls don't full retrace the dump in the next day or two, then I could see a ranging consolidation between $6K and $9K for months.

Well here is the thing. Everybody was expecting bitcoin to dump after the halving. They were pretty much using BCH and BSV halvings as examples. So they would of built up the hype, the halving would come Monday, and then tuesday huge dump. Sounds like a good plan right?

Except usually what the market expects is the opposite of what happens. So either wouldn't dump AFTER the halving or we dumped BEFORE the halving which is what happened a few hours ago. We went from $9600 to $8100 in minutes and it looks like many of this was selling on Binanace. So unless we engulf this $9600 dump and break $10K again, then I don't see us pumping anymore anytime soon. We can break $8100 area and head into the $7xxx areas and trade there for months.

Hence if you bought in $3-7K areas in last few weeks, hopefully you took some profits already at $10K.

Just as I have said, the huge reversal is now taking place. As of this posting, Bitcoin has already lost around $1,500 per BTC. That is at least 12% reversal in a matter of hours. Money is lost from this huge dip. At the same time, money could also be made from this. Again, let's enjoy the rough ride.

Ha I guess I was totally wrong. We only managed to get to $10000 before the bear trap.  I guess the upcoming recession did her part.

Conversing with about the previous circumstance which i totally agree with you and if people check the aforementioned previous of bitcoin there always be a sudden fall in price of bitcoin some few days before halving till the day halving will take place before the price later experience the rally market.

As per my previous experience, whenever the majority of the people think, the opposite of that happens. Everyone is thinking that bitcoin price will dump after halving but we never know how whales going to play out this time around. They can push the price to 12000$ making a fomo or a bull trap for us.

My thoughts too and the current resistance at $10,000 makes me still stand on my earlier prediction on the post-halving price. One certain thing is the price is definitely going to fall, judging from the reaction of the market so far but how far will the market fall (price range) that's where I'm still not certain as I won't want to buy into the market when I would had gotten a better deal if I had just waited a little longer.

Also if the resistance level at $10k can't be broken before halving d-day in just 2days time that's to say if the price can't get cross $10,000 then we should just brace ourselves for a massive correction then.

There is a small downward trend on the prices, still I don't want to change my decision towards the halving event.I feel there will be a bump on the prices soon after the halving but post analysis are not in the favour of bullish run.

We still have around 2 days left. A lot of things could possibly happen within those hours. Huge reversals could take place in just a matter of an hour or two.

Whichever way, though, there is a risk. If you hodl and the price will rise, that's good for you, but if it goes down, you lost the opportunity to buy at a cheaper price.

Let's all enjoy the crazy and suspense-filled ride.

I expected the price correction before the halving itself but the things are happening the opposite for now. Possibly there will be a correction in the market but I am not yet decided to bet on it, probably I will keep on holding since I don't want to take risk on my profits.

its really possible after all the investors who bought last week are already profiting, once they see the price dropping, they would all be dumping as well until it stable down. we'd be rushing to profit as well, the one thing that is also going to hold me back is that the supply will be lesser and i don't think it will not rise up quickly after the fall. the covid seem to have less effect this time, some cities started opening already.  8k i believe would be the best position.

Yes. It is called a bear trap. Last time it happened a bit before halving. This time because of covid-19 lockout price drop it will for sure happen after halving. Question is when it will happen. Probably is easier to speculate for price then for date. I would say at around $13000. Maybe a bit more.

Yeah,this is the perfect situation for a price bubble.Many newbies will jump of the buyers wagon because of FOMO and after a month or two,the statistics about the massive Q2 global GDP decrease will become publicly available,probably leading financial markets worldwide(stocks,fiat currencies and crypto) into a bearish mode.
I don't believe that the cryptocurrency markets can stay in a long term bullish trend,while there's a global recession/depression.This just doesn't make sense.The investors are looking for a salvation,which will cause a short term price bubble,followed by a price crash.

Yes, I always think about if bitcoin price will have a corrections price after the halving finish. We need to prepare for that time because no one knows when that will happens. There will be many new investors that will come to the bitcoin world and invest their money because they read on many news that bitcoin will be so high at a price. But I hope that the new investor will learn from the past, and they don't have to panic if they see the correction price comes to the market.

I predict that after bitcoin reach some high price like today, the price will have a correction, but I don't know how much bitcoin price will get down. That will be our best time to buy bitcoin at a low price so prepare your money to buy bitcoin.

This is true. I guess the expectation that we're all thinking about the price fall before the halving was already what we have seen on March. Remember the $4,900 scene that we're all disappointed? that could be the bottom and the pattern that we've seen with the past halving.

I'm optimistic with the price during the post-halving but not to the point that it will just continuously go up. There will be a correction after correction and that's basically the usual pattern that the history showed us.

I'm thinking it's pretty much in the bag.

Which means that's less likely?

There's a lot of strangeness going on in the world, Bitcoin has been bouncing along at dull price levels with the occasional moment of terror for what feels like forever. Maybe it'll remind us why we're here with some action no one is expecting.

There will be another massive pullback that will happen for sure after the halving, even though that the price is looking bullish; we are still not seeing a major pullback and it is sign of bearishness. We should remember that the price moves like waves, we should not expect that the bitcoin will have strong capitulation after the halving because pullback is necessary. The hype can make us experience loss so we should take seriously especially doing analysis in order for us to understand the price action of the bitcoin.

My guess is that there will be a significant dumping at the $10,000. BTC has already hit $10,000 at Binance but it did not last long. It was very quickly pushed downward. The demand for Bitcoin at $10,000 must be looking insignificant as compared to the desire to sell. I will have to create a sell order at $10,000 myself, at least a portion. Because we are almost certain that $10,000 will cause a good bounce downward. 

The magnitude of any upcoming correction depends on how high the market goes first. If bears hold firm below $10,500 then the mid-$6,000s aren't off the table yet.

Based on historical monthly corrections, I wouldn't expect to crash much harder than 40% (if that) or hold below the 0.618 retracement level. From $12K, that puts the limit in the low $7,000s. That's the lowest I would expect; it could end up shallower.

One thing I know is this: right now it looks like BTC can't possibly go down, but things can change very quickly when a 40% correction comes, like the summers of 2016 and 2017. Bull market corrections can be very brutal in BTC.


When 20% moves start feeling like a given, beware. That's how it feels near the top.

the price will definitely drop, we have seen this kind of thing happen recently (if I'm not mistaken it was a few months ago) there was halving at LTC where the price started to increase a lot and after halving the price started to fall a lot. In the case of bitcoin it is easier to see that it will fall, why do I say that? when the price of bitcoin starts to rise a lot and the price of altcoins in relation to bitcoin starts to fall a lot it means that people are selling their altcoins to buy bitcoin, it is not bringing in fresh money to make the bitcoin price rise a lot and when the people who sold their altcoins realize that fresh money isn’t coming in to make the bitcoin price go up so much they’re going to sell their bitcoin and they’re going to buy altcoins again and the bitcoin price goes down again


pump and dump is a big cancer for the cryptocurrency market


I think that such inexperienced investors have not invested a lot of money, people who invest a lot of money (whales) already bought when the price was low and will evict when they think the price is high and as a result the price of bitcoin will fall a lot . In the past I did not believe in the existence of whales and that disgusting scheme that they do, but in the past few months I’m starting to believe in the existence of whales and that scheme that they do


we won't see ATH anytime soon


$13000 is the maximum that in my opinion can achieve this year

I can only be 100% sure that price will NOT be exactly the same every 24 hours, at least not on every exchange, which is what I used to tell people who would coax me to go into forex trading about 15 years ago!

The problem isn't recognising the facts, I guess, we all do. The problem is accepting that we are just as prone as others, if not probably even more so to not having the discipline to stay on the right side of logic when trading. I think the other problem is, being experienced in TA and trading tends to give you confidence in what you're doing.

But on point again, 12k right after halving seems a given at the rate we've been going now. 50% pullback also seems about right.

No issue that's why it's called speculation, none of us are always 100% sure. The greedy investors side in me don't what to see this happen as I'll always want to keep making profit but that can't just be the case. There's no denying that the halving FOMO brought in many new Investors that their emotions haven't been tested yet which is likely going to happen soon and without any doubt they'll fall victim to FUD.

I'm still optimistic about the pre-halving price of bitcoin irrespective of the supposed slow moving I think it peak within the price range of $11k - $12k and the post-halving price will take it down within $6k - $7k.

I've read at least two news analysis of the opinions of popular influencers (goddamn me for using that term), who already have said this for a while. Can't remember the other guy but the first (Vays) actually called the top at 9k and said he sold to buy the dip at was it at least 7.5k?

He's already wrong though, judging from two consecutive days now of higher highs but I don't think he's wrong that there's going to be a dip.

The regular economy has yet to reveal the true extent of this depression. When it does, Bitcoin's not going to be immune.

People are trying to make predictions according to past experiences. This is natural, however I'm not sure if this can help. It's very hard to tell how Bitcoin price will look like after halving and if behaviour will be the same as last time
Also, I think that Bitcoin will hard break 10000$ resistance, no matter the current price rise which doesn't actually need to long lasting. Personaly, I will wait for halving without too big expectations.

I'm sure you're not the only one, something like that happened during the last halving, so it's natural that some people will expect the same to happen now. Plus Bitcoin was having a lot of ups and downs lately, so it's quite likely that there will be another big drop after a big rise. But I'm not 100% sure about that, if Bitcoin will manage to break the $10-11,000 resistance it can reach higher prices, so the eventual correction will bring us to something that we have right now or even higher.

maybe; but if i had to bet i'd bet that not the number of those who have bought what they wanted to buy already is not that big. the Corona drama is still there and that's not all, there is a ton of fear accompanying that drama. there are a lot who are either scared to buy now or are wishful enough thinking there is better (lower) price coming and want to  buy there.
the "new investors" are also in the same group. usually when they want to enter a market and see the media is scaring them off, they prefer waiting for a rise to start rather than entering. at least for a major resistance to be broken first.

No you aren't the one, I am also thinking same thing that bitcoin price could sudden dump after the halving occasion. I believe most of holders wondering same thing and that's would lead for a massive dump. Instead of know the real reason of bitcoin halving peoples are more curious about price and that's how current bitcoin market experiencing a FOMO. There is huge possibility of price dump due to FUD. All holders will likely attempt to sell in order to take advantage from halving FOMO.

However, I believe we might see a dump upto $4K zone, I mean most likely below $5K. But not expecting below $4K. And regarding before halving price, it would be probably upto $10K zone below $11K, but who know. Let's wait for the halving.

I think that first, we must get over the Corona drama and this will take a while.
Yeah, the sentiment is bullish around the forum, but here is like preaching to the choir, who wanted to buy has already bought, there is no huge amount of $ that's going to come from bitcoiners to propel the price, you need flow from new "investors" (I hate this term) and I doubt it's the right time to wait for them.

As for the prediction, although I usually suck at anticipating things, I think we normally should see a small bubble forming now that will continue to grow a bit after the halving and then slowly deflating and the price returning to the 8-10k area as all are going to realize nothing magical has happen or will happen and this will continue for a few months unless we have some serious changes and some really good or bad news, and I'm talking about decisions at government levels. But, I'm more times wrong than right so...expect the opposite. 

historically speaking price has always fallen right before halving and after it things don't change at all. in fact the day of the halving and nearly a week after it is usually the accumulation phase. i don't see why this has to change now.

but there is one additional factor to consider now compared to other 2 halvings. previously we had a big rise then a correction of that mini bubble but now we not only don't have the big rise we are not even near having any kind of bubbles to want to burst and correct. before halving price was about $11k then Corona drama hit and price dropped unrealistically then it recovered. it still hasn't seen the rise to go back to pre-Corona-drama time.

No way, Bitcoin is more bullish than ever! All over the news people telling others to invest! Google searches at all time high for the word "Bitcoin". With this crazy pandemic people are hedging thier bets with BTC.

$6k or $5k would be a reasonable estimate for me at this point (although more of a guess)...

We saw a correction last time and were very close to the halving now (currently 4 days away)... The traditional markets also saw a growth back to where they were at the start of 2020, I don't think we would fall too hard (have a rapid crash) until they do. A pleateuing crash remains on the cards though...

Am I the only one thinking bitcoin will experience some price (probably massive) corrections after the halving hype dies down. Like they say, buy the rumors, sell the news, brace yourself guys because that's exactly what's coming. The new inflow of inexperience investor hoping to benefit from the halving hype are likely going to panic when the corrections comes, resulting to the price dumping harder. Currently, everyone is getting carried away by what will the pre-halving new (ATH) price of bitcoin be and not much concerned about what'll the support level of that new price be, to prevent it from dumping hard when the corrections comes.

What are your price prediction or are you sticking with been optimistic of a continuous upwards price movement? Let's get discussing...