Topic: Summary Present Day > July 2022 (Read 898 times)

Update 20/10 2019:

I will no longer track BTC due to conflicting philosophy and because this thread did not age well due to BTC technological obsoletion.

All data about BTC is instead applicable on global market cap because industry as a whole is still developing rapidly and will transform society very soon.

I would not recommend anyone to buy Bitcoin at this point in time due to things that were discovered since this topic was created exactly 1 year ago.

I have never personally used BTC for anything other than speculation and this is not a rabbit hole I am interested in reliving as I did stocks many years ago and it was a huge waste of time and more of a gambling thing. But there are more serious reasons for exiting BTC, it is in my recent post history.

I discovered ETH in early 2016 and never looked twice at BTC. Sold eth when it did not scale.

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I will however recommend acquiring index coins like Waves and other coins with real use case or commodity paired. Valuable projects that actually contribute and benefit the decentralized economy will vastly outperform BTC. BTC is suffering a case of parasitic vampirism.

Be advised, Waves is high risk coin because of Russian government interference.

Some are speculating in a front run halving, so 35k at page 1 interval should be on point. Multiple x3.5, there are x300 multiples in this brewing market with token selectivity but you have to get in now because its already starting. I don't know which ones will push x300. Waves will outperform btc 10:1 but higher risk.

WAVES is my main market so it's completing a 6 month wave 2 from a december 2018 wave 1. I didn't know what to make of that 6 month slump but it bears a few characteristics of a drawn out wave 2. It's BTC and $ that is tracked for WAVES, I am uncertain about top 10 alt performance and others in general. WAVES have recent issues that can interfere with transition into wave 3, specifically VST and Bettertokens. So I should perhaps clarify that this optimism is geared towards the type of alts described in the paragraph below. This new market requires cherry picking, big gainers x1000++ are in there somewhere. WAVES could be one but I am not at a position to recommend heavy investment there because of its issues (it's Russian).


My position on alts is mixed because it seems all the devs that are enjoying good momentum are targeted by regulators, whereas the powers behind BTC are the old regimes so there is alot of momentum to get BTC on top of the pile which they are actually succeeding in right now and have been since april.

Obviously, great alts will appear if sanctioned by the old regimes. I envision some AI backed coins will be a perfect addition to this neo feudal totalitarian model that is the flavor of the century. Because of the hard GDP cap of BTC when above a few trillion, these alts will vastly outperform BTC when introduced at a few hundred million. Nation states who overtly attempt to introduce coins will go nowhere, mainstream is dumb on blockchain but if given a choice with sentiments as critical as the present, they will absolutely choose to not back governments if they can. So it will be and is alot of sock puppeting and astroturfing to get everyone onboard this new money deal and dumping the unsustainable fiat debts of the 20th century. China is a big loser in this game so they will be the ones sponsoring everyones gains here, and it's too late for them to recover position with dollar hoarding an crypto censorship.

For the current alt coin generation, introduction of decentralized atomic swaps can be a good trigger for x200 rallies, privacy nodes can also revive because they entered at late peak 2017 so did not really have a chance to deliver before dying down, but this is a niche sector with less capitalization potential. All these privacy nodes look like a huge wave 1 early 2018 and then wave 2 multi year chart which is coming to an end now.

Other alts that can perform very well are coins backed by something real like a service or asset, or some use case that BTC does not cover. There will probably be fortune 500 migrations soon and this will introduce private money according to a neo feudal model. This would be an explosive rally trigger. But because there is actual economic modeling possible in this subsector, speculative momentum may not grow into bubble mode. Overall a huge boon to the industry and in the right manner, as a liberal addition that does not necessarily interfere on a regulatory level with the current generation of coins. The power dynamics between states and multinationals may be interesting to follow over the 2020's, right now the military (crown) is controlling everything but this can change quickly if there is a higher degree of organization of the masses with private money (lords) at the core.

With the level of sophistication of surveillance tech and the direction its developing, more players is alot better even if it will lead to civil conflict when the old hegemony is replaced by smaller corporate states. I believe people of this generation will seek peaceful transition of power so corporations with mobilizing tendencies maybe starved from capitalization. It's a very utopian outcome in this scenario but depends on resource abundance of the masses or other things like pandemics or disasters, can switch the flavor into mobilization mode rapidly, happened many times before. False flags are unfortunate risk factor as max IV labs are military controlled. Look at Syria, dictators stop at nothing to retain power, Ghaddafi did halt chemical use, didn't end well for him now did it. Kremlin doctrine = destroy everything if at brink of destruction.

These key elements are beneficial for the utopian scenario:

1. Rapid armament of the masses by 3d printing before any restrictive laws can be implemented to retain status quo, it's a deterrent against totalitarianism when deployable for large scale rapid mobilization like flash mobs. Some say that todays military is too complex for the serf class to challenge and its true in its current incarnation but can change very quickly. There is also an allegiancy factor with western commanders that may service democratic regime change.

2. Flooding the market with as many strong private currencies as possible, this will render any counter measures inefficient. Could originate in silicon valley and spread to fortune 500's.

3. Production abundance through automation and implementation of universal basic income which masternodes and proof of stake is perfectly developed for. Resource abundance will facilitate healthy power transition.

4. Maintaining government to a lesser degree for protection of vulnerable infrastructure and social administration. A phasing out of the military industrial complex makes direct opposition less likely. They can have their psychopathic sandbox to play in but it will be rendered completely irrelevant to the new world order at large. This will be the first time in human history that the hunting class is nolonger in command of civilization.

I believe that this resource re allocation from military to private will accelerate a singularity event. A military elite controlled singularity is possibly very dystopian. The irony here is that all free citizens must assume characteristics of operatives, but not as specialized. In Rome, most senators were also soldiers, so I envision a huge senatorial class of upgraded feudal serfs combined with cyborg integration. A highly classless society.

i suspect that bulls will keep price above $7500 to maintain the parabolic curve of this year's uptrend.


bold call. i assume you mean against BTC? you got a chart for that? i'm afraid to get my expectations up, but sentiment is indeed feeling right---pessimistic and rekt---for altcoin spring in the not so distant future. it's been a long and cold altcoin winter.

You sounded like you know altcoins too well, the first altcoin that we had in the cryptocurrency market came with the promises of having a better system than bitcoin, people keyed into it, Litecoin also came with those promises also, and so as many other projects also did, but where are they now? Till date, they are still panting and running hard to meet up with bitcoin, so I really don’t see any altcoins being able to outperform bitcoin no matter the use case that they have because they still all rely on bitcoin to do well.

If altcoin was going to outperform bitcoin in the long run, you should have seen it by now, or maybe you can just hint me on which alt coin gave you all these courage to make you have this bold statement on the page about bitcoin being outperformed.

It is a question of when and at what level the bullrun will begin for BTC, anywhere from today at 9k or in a few months at 7 no more, no less. Alts are currently completing a wave 2 in the new uptrend market. So Alts are actually in covert bull already, don't sell your alts.

There may be a flip event because all the old world power players are in BTC now. I believe that alts with use case will outperform BTC vastly. It is a dystopian outcome for BTC hegemony, because in essence nothing will have changed, the ones who were in control before, will then also be in control, Fortune 500, saudi, CIA and so on.

Based on the easy of which this entire industry was subverted in little less than two years, BTC may in fact triumph and become a totalitarian control tool. I have seen Bittrex fold, Waves fold, there isn't anyone who hasn't folded to the almighty $. Perhaps they were forced, under threat of execution (Russia/Waves) or imprisonment (US/Bittrex). I guess, I would also take the counterfeit money instead of checking out.

35k probable before end of year.

Tracking this scenario from page 1:

Phase II

1. September 2019 is the start of the real bull parabola 2.0: btc moves rapidly to 14k/global 450bn
2. up to 50% october retracement 7/225
3. Parabolic rally from november 2019 until march 2020: global 1.1TN/BTC 28-30K

Tracking a double top formation in BTC. There is a general weakness in alts so optimism may not transfer to them and as a result they can be dragged into a wave 5 along with BTC. Can take many months to resolve a wave 5, maybe more than one year.

There are winners here and there with selective picks but they will underperform in a structural downtrend.

Confirmation of continuation must break new ath for BTC or stabilize in that area above 17k/500bn global.

 Double top is confirmed by tagging 13.8 and then rejection. This will be a quick resolution, a few days maybe a week we will know.

Could go fast if no reversal in this territory, 35 000 btc in 4 months or less. otherwise some kind of top in this area around 450bn, little bit disappointed with alts so far.

Don't think market will do -80% if reversal but maybe 60-70%, then back up in 6 months or more.

update june 27th: strong rejection at 13.8k, perhaps back to 4-5 and then 35k in 6 months or more.

2nd update: see waves price tracker thread. scenario is wave 5 to double tap 3k (1 year delay in prediction), sideways + - 15-20% then 35k (prediction on track), and medium retracement towards 4-6k (a few months delay or on track depends on price velocity).

Tagging 450bn soon but which market will it be? BTC at 15k is 270bn alone so that's only 400bn global, the remaining 50bn may be sub top 5-10 alts combined, it is alot of x10 there with an additional 50bn because they are all sub 2bn market caps.

Possibly Bitcoin may enter a bear wave 5 whereas some good alts progress rapidly, it's then a flip event and this is why there is such ambiguity in the charts.

The bold text indicates that BTC may be nearing a cross roads in price performance and decline up to 80% from here or around 12-14k.

Many good altcoins have not experienced the type of growth as BTC did recently, so I could not make sense of this progression and how they will be capable of following Bitcoin into minus 80%. So I believe that the good ones will momentarily decline perhaps up to 50% but remain stable in BTC value because it will be BTC/USD that is dragging the market down. And then there may be a flip and good alts can go into hyperbolic growth. I don't think any of the top 5 is included here in this growth trajectory.

There is then growth continuation for alts and long term stagnation for BTC.

This is very speculative right now so why not a little btc and some useful alts and some fiat until we know more.

Side ways or small retracement 10-20% is best scenario for BTC a few months out. Unless 20k-30k is broken but that's kind of irrelevant for people in the present who are thinking about positioning. And it could easily go -50% at those levels for months at a time., volatile.

This comment unintendedly covers all outcomes I suppose, have been busy with main project lately, have not analyzed markets. Page 1 is still valid. Made some buy recommendations for friends and family a few months ago at 4k, was asked today but could not immediately approve, it's an easy +50% to 14k to squeeze it out but then what about long term in case of reversal. People should really already have entered positions in BTC long ago by now.

I think of the first part like you; a recovery of up to about $ 12,000 with a good performance even for the best altcoins (not sure of the 30's, but I think at least a x10) .... this by mid / end of July, but from August onwards weakness to go down strong until October, with a decrease of around $ 5,000.
From then on there will be the true and definitive upward cycle, which will accompany us until the new ATH of 2022.

Can you explain better what I highlighted in bold of your post?

I think there won't be too much of a change in the history sense from today to 2022. I am not talking about "no change" as in the price will be same and everything will be same, I am talking about the past 3 years happened and the next 3 years will be the same as the last 3 years. That is at least my idea, maybe it won't be like that, maybe it will be a lot different but to me the fact is that we had a very wild 3 years shows that how much more wild can it get?

I am pretty sure it would be as wild as the past 3 years and it won't be calm but it can't get any more wild. Hence in 2022 the price will be a lot more but until then we will have many ups and downs in price that would make new all time highs then make yearly lows to eventually go up again and down again.

above analysis still valid, bear 5 could be many years long if activated at $10-12k. Bear 5 does not include good alt projects, so it could actually be a mixed bull bear scenario aka flip.

Looks like 450BN global/14k BTC by mid august, alts x30 by late summer (not top 5, expected underperfom), then up to 70% correction, and then x6 from that low by september 2020 which will be ath for global and BTC (810BN/25K).

If bearish wave 5, then this is top and -80% from here, recovery delayed until late 2019. 212bn/7k. Target 40bn/1400btc.

65/35 in favor of continuation.

Well we all know that predicting the price movement is very difficult, as evident of the some misses already in his phase 1. But the thing is you can just adjust your predictions as it see fits, just like what the OP did about 2 weeks ago.

Of course all we can do is hope because who wouldn't want the price o bitcoin goes higher in the future?

I can really see that,  you have really tried your best and done a lot of research.
And to be honest i am also quite impressed by your work.
But as others said,  i will also say that this is Bitcoin and you clearly know what i mean to say.
You can have evidences from the past that how the price of Bitcoin fluctuates.
Hope some of your research becomes true  and yes we will be able to sell our holdings in a higher price.

Phase I

1. Global is moving to 187bn and BTC $5700 by early december this year.

It took a little longer though, perhaps you initial prediction didn't take into consider the hash war brought to us by the BCH vs BSV in November that's why it look a while before we can hit your Phase 1 prediction. Right now it's $179 billion cap and price is $5200-$5300. We are almost there so once we touch it, let's see if your other predictions will be right on track.

We can not really said and analyze the market accurately because if you look at op predictions you will see that he was predicting bitcoin to grow to $5000 in December 2019 but currently bitcoin is now $5248. I think we should allow time to show us the way.

Well anything can happen, and we can't be sure if more and more will come to crypto to have that price in 2022, but i also think will be higher then is now.

Good work bytheway.

243 Global April 20th then reversal. If double bottom/lower wave 5 scenario H2 (40-100bn), otherwise towards 14k Fall (600bn global).

Took a little longer than expected but here we are.

Might be a wave 5 to double bottom 3k or even lower, might otherwise go stright to 14k between september possibly as late as december 2019 because of this 4 month delay.

Phase II/III and beyond 2021 are still on track.

180bn/5.5k

This is my interpretation based on present data sets:

1. The brands you list are part of the top 20 I believe. Considering that they are at 0.25 to billion dollar valuations or more already, combined with traditional market cap developments over time in high tech brands such as Microsoft and Apple in the 80's, barring the 2017 parabolic move caused by market confusion and possibly tether, a logic 5 year projection would presume that none of them exceed $400bn independently or consistently given 100% success in all areas of development and near market monopoly for each chain. I have not analyzed any of them in detail except Stellar which is similar to Waves, which my own brand is using as a utility platform for the proprietary product. The bottom line is that growth potential is great but risk variables remain uncertain, so utility investments are preferred over speculative investments (invest in things you need/use often).

2. Alot of the 1 Quadrillion dollar value estimates from hyperbitcoinization analytics wrongly assume present market conditions to remain static over the next decade. I believe that AI paired chains will represent perhaps 90% or more of the 1Qn projection, with traditional industries at a collective $100Tn, whereas global gdp for 2018 is at ~ $80Tn. This means, no $1 million dollar bitcoin or higher. There are no serious AI hybrid brands yet, and I don't expect any on the horizon for 5 years or more.

3. Bitcoin itself, given fundamental flaws such as Proof of Work, demonstrably dysfunctional scaling solutions which are not decentralized and importantly community behaviour by key people, concludes that its price may increase as a novelty factor in the near or far future, but not at a rate of competitiveness comparable to other emerging chains. Its dominance will likely fade significantly.

4. It is possible that ecosystems of different blockchain iterations such as Privacy Masternodes can capture small market share in a trillion dollar economy within 3 years or less. Many of these brands are at single or double digit million dollar valuations. Given a $100Bn potential market, distributed somewhat equally between a few dozen brands, we can conclude that there are some x1000 projections within that ecosystem in the present, with proven and strong momentum in some of these coins during late bullmarket 2017, as many were introduced around that time in batches. The primary source of this projection is based on DASH and its fork variations. However, I think that solo chains without a platform enabler such as Stellar or Waves, will experience slower adoption because of increased marketing requirements inorder to reach more users. By its nature there is also the ever present risk of regulation in this sector. From a scalability viewpoint, an ecosystem of 30 surviving and successful chains, each capable of 50tx/s (based on DASH and Pivx data), will enable around 10% of VISA capacity which aligns well with an expected market share of 10% in a 1-2 trillion dollar blockchain economy.


So what do investors need to be mindful of?

1. Dpos chains that are in the top 30 due to a higher degree of centralization comparable to PoS Masternodes. Exceptions include brands that offer something realistic beyond DpoS (Lisk has smart contracts in pipeline, Nano is DAG, and a few others want to build decentralized internet in top of their DPos). In general, the DPoS model is an inferior and outdated option from a decentralized perspective. There are newer variations of all of the above but the top 30 is more visible so people buy that before proper due diligence on the underlying tech and emerging options.

2. The current top 5 bubble which could easily shed another several tens of billions from total MC, or at the bare minimum, significantly underperform other coins, as soon as they unpeg from BTC.

3. Astroturfers such as Nexo (Goldman Sachs), anything proven to be operated by old world centralized institutions or Fortune 500 brands which are since decades coopted by (corrupt) government. These brands will soon migrate to blockchain and that is the source of a large share of the $100Tn projected market cap, so the growth will be ported, not new. Present Crypto index can grow towards 5 to 10Tn in 5 years but probably not much more, this is in line with Winklevoss statements.

4. Centralized exchanges which are already fading.

I find your analysis interesting, as well as bizarre, and it is right that you slightly adjust your prediction as prices and waves form.

If you have analyzed other blockchain projects, which ones can you think are the ones with the best potential to express: VeChain? Tezos? Stellar? Iota? Neo?
Do you have any suggestions or are you heavily invested in any of them, or others?

Yeah, that was your speculation last Oct, how about now? Because bitcoin price now is lower than $5700 as what you have stated that the price of bitcoin on Dec 2018 will be $5700 which I think will not going to happen now, so there is no assurance on those speculations and maybe better to make more possible speculation than thinking in advance with no any other proof or something. But still give some point of vew to others.

Prices hit the 112 terminal bottom yesterday so this might be it. But there are fundamental indicators that suggest a change in sentiment, so especially BTC and ETH are a little toxic for now. Some alts at this level should yield x200 within a year or two, I am not sure exactly which ones but have a stake in some.

If we don't rally towards 422 immediately, the level around 4000 +-15% will range for a few weeks or months.

Could wick to 1200 -1500 btc to affirm may 2017 trading session pre tether, 40-60bn global. Possibly include organic market growth on top of this number with adjusted bottom, equivalent to 50% higher ($1800-2250 btc).

I am tracking many dozens indicators to gain a holistic overview, social media sentiment, old coin ta, peer analytics, mass media (contra indications), gold analytics, global gdp forecasting, technological development, inflation/debt metrics and so forth.

It seems to me that market will move away from Proof of work and Bitcoin, and that the rally will be for sub top 3 alts. People should be careful dropping a bunch of fiat on BTC with this emerging shift in sentiment, there are altcoins at 1/1000 valuation of BTC with fundamental indicators suggesting x200 gains in the near future.

So, many will be burned if this scenario unfolds, but someone must pay for the rally to 422.

I would backtrack on any external price drivers for BTC right now (anything above 12k mid to long term), the gains will be global market cap, at the expense of BTC (internal wealth transfer). It's only in the past 24 hours that this speculative development became apparent as a potential rally trigger, many good alts are overlooked and alot of the devaluation this year was due to BTC pairing.

It is wise to consider the 2017 rally could have been atleast partially fueled by tether fraud, and that future rallies might not be as parabolic (x200 or more), especially for coins at more than 2 billion valuation. There are still thousandfold gains out there.

Lastly, a sudden pullback from 422 in february driven by bitcoin could be caused by a general market move away from BTC. Whereas BTC may not recover soon, alts should recover and prosper within 6 months from that point. So 12k for BTC (where shifting sentiment has not permeated mainstream already) might be its last big move for many years to come where opportunity will instead be in newer chains.

If BTC devs can deliver very soon it stands a chance to remain relevant (no proof of work/decentralized scaling). Recent public statements by people like Craig Wright, erodes confidence in the prospect of BTC. The price manipulation this time backfired (basically making BTC a toxic asset for now), it was completely overtly conducted with explicit statements by CW.

sidenote: Alot of expected near term added value in the form of underground venues such as strip clubs, will not be adopting bitcoin or any other third party chains. They will of course develop their own inhouse loyalty chain with a hybrid function of stock/gift card. The technical barrier to entry is already low today, platform enablers such as stellar and waves are well positioned to capture market here. Shortly after, mainstream fortune 500 will follow, conglomerates will assume sovereign characteristics when they decouple from government issued fiat. Government blockchains will be censorship enabled and generally dysfunctional, paying for social security (basic income), military and other social functions like education. All of these are set for increased decentralization with 3d printing and online education in the next 10 years. The aim is to achieve personal sovereignity which is the unexpressed current of blockchain. Technologically this will advance into artificial planets and so on in the latter half of the century and ultimately some divine state with the transcension hypothesis in 300 years.

Blockchain is only one piece of a high tech puzzle that we can interact with in the present world, a decade before its prime time. It is like cosmic white noise before the arrival of an interstellar mothership, or radio static before tuning into color tv. The long term (1 Quadrillion) parabola trajectory that hyperbitcoinization analytics discovered, doesn't make any sense to anyone in the present. But when other sciences are merged with it, the fundamentals fall into coherence. 

Let me understand: you are saying that ETF will be approved at the beginning of December and the general market will reach $ 422bn until about February, with the bitcoin going towards $ 14,000, as you indicated here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php? topic=5044830.msg46562328#msg46562328

Then you think that the whole market and Bitcoin pulls back again and heavily up to about $ 60 billion of the market and $ 2700 for Bitcoin, as you wrote here

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.48050281

Did I understand your analysis / forecast?
Do you have any models or indicators you need to affirm these things?

We really can't see what will happen on a daily basis and this is a topic that allows us to estimate how bitcoin will be in july 2022. Last week if you asked people if the bitcoin price would go down almost everyone would say the price wouldn't go under 6 thousand dollars but right now we see that is quite possible and the price is very low right now. Compared to that we have no idea what will happen next week neither so it is futile to try to estimate what will happen in july 2022.

I think the clearest choice would be saying "it will be higher than current price" because it feels like there is still 3 and a half years from now and during that time bitcoin will probably go even higher in popularity and adoption and there will be times when the price will go up between now and that time.

Going to 422 now, probably ETF trigger beginning of december. Some alts are also undervalued so majority of gains should be there. This rally will last until february.

should hit local bottom around this level (5800 2018-11-14) before december to february rally. Please read my newer thread on why this global 422bn might not include BTC because of its scalability issues.

The first post in this discussion thread is tracking a BTC 300k in a few years, but this number could represent global market cap because of BTCs scalability problem, so in the end it might not be BTC 300k but a total market cap equivalent at that point in time which would then be in the vicinity of 5 trillion.

Asides research, at least looking at the way things have been over the years, and how things are now, the fact that we have been in a downtrend for a while now, actually could bring about nothing much to think of this year when it comes to bull run.

Sure, no one can tell the future as the market is always going to be unpredictable and one way or the other, I actually see the likelihood of mainstream adoption setting in which obviously is something that we cannot run away from and in that case, the chances of seeing bitcoin skyrocket at some point is still there but when it will is something no one can really tell.

Man that is extremely optimistic. No economic collapse and prediction that governments will jut give up in 10 years time. Well, the optimism is good.

You can't predict 4 years forward just because it fits with the last 4 years. I would be hesitant using that method to even predict the next 1 year or 6 months, 4 years is just so unlikely to hold. So much changes in that time period that no 4 year period will ever be the same as the last.

I don't think we'll ever see $3000 either, but it's impossible to rule out completely. Bitcoin does exactly that what we don't expect it to do, and when it does so, we'll be as stunned as what happened last year during the bull run. If someone told you last year in January (while the price was hovering around $1000) that we would see $20,000 before the end of that year, you would say it's impossible too.

In the end, if the price drops to $3000 it will be the best ever modern time buying opportunity. I'll gladly take advantage of that.

Also, why should we make this forum great for 'profiteering'? And what exactly do you mean with that?

A lot of speculations are coming up and we have to understand that time will probably tell were bitcoin price will be par time.  I don't believe that in December this year bitcoin will be around $5700 but my thinking is that it would be above $8000.

Thats what im thinking also dude,if where did OP get this stupid speculative topic.he seems so bright for a fool but the way he delivers this thread looks like hes out of mind

Bitcoin will never drops to $3,000 level again thats the only thing I'm sure of so stop trolling and just do what we can tomake this forum great for profiteering again

This is a fairly well-ordered Bitcoin price change plan which is presented aesthetically and neatly, but I miss at least some evidence as to why this should be, although I am sure that there are reasons for this and are not just listed. And one more thing was the fact that this work, however, does not have much value. Because Bitcoin cant be predicted.

no there is no difference between a "pump" from x to 100x and y to 100y. they both are similar manipulation and same amount of money "pumps" them.

however bitcoin is not a pump and dump so this statement has nothing to do with bitcoin. the "rise" from x to 100x and y to 100y (y>x) are similar but the second one is a little harder because the market will be bigger and there will be more friction for both rises and falls so it happens slower, this however is not a big difference as long as the adoption rate is growing at the same pace but it will be harder if adoption rate drops and it will be easier if adoption rates grows.
for example if we see a wave of mass adoption (imagine a couple of big companies such as Amazon, eBay,... accept bitcoin as payment) this 100y rise will look super easy compared to the previous 100x rise.

I can imagine when a time will come and we will be seeing 8% drops in price like the end of the world . You are right though, and I believe with the way things have been going thus far and institutions already wanting to get in big and at least gain some pretty good position, by then the common man who is a laggard will just be trying to pick the pieces left at the end and the chances of mainstream adoption would have sufficed.

Nonetheless, no one knows what tomorrow or next tomorrow holds, let alone the next 4 years, so the only thing we can do now is to just keep hoping for the best and knowing that development is something guaranteed for this space with the way things are going.

Although I love science fiction, at least for the epilogue you've got it wrong: in 2022 Bitcoin price should not have such "abrupt" evolution, not anymore. Far too many big institutions will be into this and we will get closer to what happens on Wall Street (where an 8% drop is seen almost like end of world).

It 's always nice but especially fun to read these predictions so accurate and detailed in detail, with precise dates, retracements and recoveries, but even more fun are and will be the answers of other users who will give their accurate forecasts, accusing the OP of be a moron because Bitcoin will never descend to xxxxxx but will go up to xxxxxx for the end of the year and then go to xxxxxx in 2019.

Having said that, obviously I do not know what Bitcoin will do in a day or a month, but I strongly believe that the process of adoption, acceptance and regulation will increase exponentially in the coming years, with the strong entry of other actors and investors; this is why I believe that in 2022, after having had the 3 halving in 2020, Bitcoin will be at least over $ 100,000.

A few months ago I had also made a similar discussion, but even more distant in time, up to 2028-2029; 10 years from today, after the 5 halving of bitcoins.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.43731865

You're right. Sub 1 cent to $1,000 is nowhere near $1,000 to $100,000, much less $1 million and above, in terms of what it would take.

But not sure you can ever gain anything from imagining you're walking in the shoes of a whale. You got to put them on to walk, and you'd likely still walk different.

And that's how it is. Patterns are not designed and not stumbled upon in TA but found, but concluded. Move the goalposts, tweak the dimensions, and patterns appear more readily. Midnight movement, weekend sell off, January bull, 3-year parabolic cycles. All imagined.

Big fiat turmoil will flip the power switch in favor of crypto, so that's a no go zone for the G20.

They will thus stall inevitable fiat erosion for as long as possible in order to cling to evaporating global power that will be a relic of the past after 2030's.

We're looking at another 10 years of unprecedented bull run, roaring 20's 2.0.

The Blockchain revolution will be a silent transition of global power back into the hands of western based patriarchal science class as was the case for much of recent history since the enlightenment era. Simply because this is the true core of international and domestic industrial strength and this is where 99% of progress originate.

Take power through colluded and usurped crony capital away from progressively inferior classes and negotiating power of social development returns to where it belongs which will seize and reverse a decade of relative technological stagnation.

The Military/industrial Communist feminist islamofacist pseudo dictatorships with Chinese economic planning as a recent role model will drown and sink to the bottom of the ocean on the wave of a neo renaissance citizenry. Spearheaded by capital migration onto distributed ledger.

Where do you put the upcoming economic crisis in?  Do you expect it to happen before July 2022 and have no impact on price fo Bitcoin or you expect it to happen after July 2022. Or you even believe it will happen exactly on July 2022 and crash and crisis will cause each other?

In short BTC will fall to 5700 and recover by 150% right after. This will not happen. If 6000 is not the bottom and we will fall to 5700 it will start a huge bear wave of people selling because for us to get this low there will have to be some big bearish news. We won't go to 5700 just like that .
If it happens we won't have a recovery. People will get into their heads that 6000 wasn't the consolidation they were waiting for and sell. No 150% and no rally in early 2019.

So according to the research there won't be a major pump until next year, and then parabolic prices a couple of years after that. Not such a bad thing, takes time to accumulate bitcoins. If we can collect a few sats now and then it will all add up

Problem with that is that TA lovers alwais like to paint something. Find magic pattern, similatiry. Truth is that chart is only describing past. Its like driving car looking only on back mirror.

1- there is difference between pump from 10$ to 1000$ and from 1000$ to 100 000$ - there needs to be pumped sooo much money. To pump to 1000$ BTC need only street invsotrs. To pump to 10 000$ it needs big whales. To pump to 100 000$ it will need institution investors. To pump to 1 000 000$ it will need countries to store they reseve.

2- if in 2019-2020 we will have global crysis (manny economist agree that it is highly possible) than you can farget about big pumps. There will be lack of trust to invest even in low risk assets. High risk assets will be first to be sold.

Thats why chart, similarity and patters does not work.

Remeber Rotshilds has 50-500 trilion $. They can buy 5000 BTC (not 5 000 coins !. 5 000 time whole BTC with current price of 1 btc). Think about that and than go and look at chart few year ago and predict future... Alwais look at chart and think ... what will whale do. What would i do if i was a whale. Where is the easiest way to earn big money.

There are many predictions like this and a ton of movement that may happen regarding the  price of bitcoin and I really think that anyone can sure speculate the date when and how much the value of bitcoin can become with the impending years to come, But this is all unpredictable and yes this can still happen even a further major tweaks needed because it might happen the same time it may change, We all can definitely say something regarding what is on our minds, But anything can happen and I think a speculation within a year is a great start accurately speculating the price,

I understand you did your work and your research very well and there must be ton of evidence of why these should happen. Still, you are forgetting one eternal truth, this is bitcoin we are talking about. If we are talking about bitcoin you will never know what it will do tomorrow let alone what it will do in 2022 and everything in between.

These are just guesses and I am assuming they are not guesses that was just came out of your hat, you probably found some stuff that would back your ideas, however there has never been a single person in entire world that consistently found right prices for bitcoin ever, you will not become the first one.

Based on a newly discovered pattern that has so far correlated with BTC for 4 years. Enjoy.

Phase I

1. Global is moving to 187bn and BTC $5700 by early december this year
2. Rally follows for 2 months until early or mid february 2019 with a healthy +150% recovery until global 450bn and btc 14k max, probably a bit lower
3. 5 month second leg bear market from mid february until july 2019 possibly up until beginning of september
4. Prices during this 5 month period will bottom at 112bn global and 3.4k btc
5. 50% recovery between july and september 2019 towards 170bn global btc 5k

Phase II

1. September 2019 is the start of the real bull parabola 2.0: btc moves rapidly to 14k/global 450bn
2. up to 50% october retracement 7/225
3. Parabolic rally from november 2019 until march 2020: global 1.1TN/BTC 28-30K
4. April-July 2020 up to 70% retracement with BTC 9k/global 330bn shakeout
5. Dollar average during April-July interim is higher at 14k btc 500bn global (-50%)

Phase III (2020 july halving)

1. August is a flatline month without significant movement in any direction
2. Possibly squeezing in a double bottom again at 9k btc 330bn global
3. September 2020 +100% btc 18k/global 660bn
4. October recovery -25% btc 13.5/global 500bn
5. Back to September levels in November

Phase IV

1. Two month parabola rally +500% December 2020-January 2021: 90kBTC/3,3TN Global
2. 65% retracement in february 2021: 1.2 global/31.5 btc
3. 1.5 months road to double top Mid April: 3.3/90k
4. Mid June 2021 (two months retracement) 31.5/1.2tn
5. Beginning or Mid September end of 3 month blow off rally x10: BTC 300 000 USD/Global market cap $12TN

Epilogue

10 month bear market until July 2022 stabilizing at global 4.2TN/BTC 105K



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