[Summary]Things to be considered for a possible market crash

livingfree

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Quote from: o48o on April 03, 2023, 03:08:19 PM

Quote from: Eternad on April 03, 2023, 08:21:37 AM

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Unemployment rate at an all-time low

-cut-

Maybe i am noob at economics and you have to explain to be basics, but i can't see any connection with this and the possible crash.
This just means there are more workforce wanted so business should be doing good. Not to mention how good this is in individual level as you wouln't have to worry about not getting a new job if you get kicked from the old one.

Other points made sense to me.

I am also confused and trying to understand this point that OP. If a country is experiencing a market crash then there will be a lot of job layoffs and that has happened during the height of the covid19 pandemic.

But when a crash comes and unemployment rate goes into all time low, I just don't understand it as well because that basically means that a country's economy is doing good because of low unemployment rate.

It could be that there it's a typo error on this one and it shouldn't be unemployment rate but employment rate.

Baofeng

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Quote from: crzy on April 06, 2023, 04:56:51 PM

Maybe this time crypto will prove as a safe haven before previously when the economy was shocked by the pandemic, Bitcoin also follow that trend although it recovers easily compare to any market. Even if we don’t want this to happen, it looks like a crisis can’t be stop anymore its just a matter of time before we fully see the whole effect of this one. Attacking US might not be a good idea as well, many will surely be affected especially the smaller countries.

At least Bitcoin has proven itself to be a safe haven in the pandemic, that's one true case and we passed it with flying colors. And there are even arguments that the crypto market will go to zero, we go down hard the first week of announcement of pandemic, <$3k and everyone was shouting that we are doom. Nevertheless we bounce back in a month or two.

Quote from: Eternad on April 03, 2023, 08:21:37 AM

Despite the good Bitcoin mini-bull run, We can't deny the fact that the global economy is on the brink of a massive crash. This summary of news is a warning that a market in Bitcoin is still at the table. Keep safe guys! I will update this recap regularly to give everyone an easy overview.

Not sure how old are you, but the last economic crash of 2008 was really hard for me. I lost my job, but luckily the company gave us severance pay. And then I got back my job after two months. So I've learn a lot of that experience and it seems that history will repeat itself again in the coming years. The good thing is that now we have Bitcoin as a hedge for all what is happening right now, and I think it will still be safe, in my opinion.

crzy

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Maybe this time crypto will prove as a safe haven before previously when the economy was shocked by the pandemic, Bitcoin also follow that trend although it recovers easily compare to any market. Even if we don’t want this to happen, it looks like a crisis can’t be stop anymore its just a matter of time before we fully see the whole effect of this one. Attacking US might not be a good idea as well, many will surely be affected especially the smaller countries.

Oilacris

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Quote from: Johnyz on April 06, 2023, 04:34:54 PM

Crypto might not be safe if there’s another crisis, just like in pandemic where its price started to dump as well. Crisis are about to happen, there’s no other way to stop it right now and I think US already know this. Other countries are also preparing for this, and we should be more prepared. Have a good investment, ready your cash and your buying power you will never know when the crisis effect start.

I could say that economic downturns or crisis isnt always that significant to crypto market.Going back into that pandemic situation where everything does down but still this market
is still doing pretty well.Yes, prices might be comparable in speaking about highs and lows but we arent that blind that it do still perform well and this is why this market is really that too unpredictable.
Market crash or not then we us crypto enthusiast should really be that prepared nor really be that versatile when it comes to market conditions.We cant really just
jump off whenever we do see a red candle.

Johnyz

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Crypto might not be safe if there’s another crisis, just like in pandemic where its price started to dump as well. Crisis are about to happen, there’s no other way to stop it right now and I think US already know this. Other countries are also preparing for this, and we should be more prepared. Have a good investment, ready your cash and your buying power you will never know when the crisis effect start.

TimeTeller

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Quote from: Husires on April 06, 2023, 11:13:45 AM

The market always carries bad aspects and positive aspects, so news is selective and trying to compare it with models such as what happened in 1969 and 1974 is wrong. Even comparing it to the global financial crisis in 2008 is wrong because the economy has changed dramatically since that time and what happened in the past is completely different from what will happen in the future. .

It is true that some countries have begun to think seriously about the existence of alternatives to the dollar, but bitcoin is still the number one reserve currency, and all plans will not change this dominance during the next 5 years, unless a world war occurs.

There are so many factors that are different now as compare to those years mentioned.
But anyone is free to give their 2 cents about the possible market crash.
You can always give your own opinion, but we will have different approach on what's to come.
I don't know if that is true to all, btc as the number one reserve currency?
Maybe true to some countries but not for all. They have their own fiat or other currencies stash in their vaults.

Gyfts

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Quote from: Eternad on April 03, 2023, 08:21:37 AM

Jerome Powell 2% goal in danger

Interest rate hikes are the biggest threat to the U.S. economy at this point. Some other factors you mentioned play a role and would slow down the recovery, but Powell made it clear that he's willing to ramp up interest rates aggressively and will concede economic growth in order to stop 40 year high inflation rates. The strategy of incremental increases didn't work for over a year.

I suppose there was no other way after having spent trillions of dollars in 2020-2021. Once spent, the money stays in the economy forever.

adaseb

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The bond market is trading like there is going to be a crash. Back in 2008 it was the same thing. The economy was basically messed up but stocks kept hitting highs and everybody was acting like nothing was wrong. The last fed meeting JPow said they won't be any cuts this year, but if you look at the bond market they are saying there is a chance of a cut in July and maybe 100 bps cuts at the end of the year. Why is this an issue?

Well its because what JPow says should be reflected on the bond market but its not. So either the bond market thinks JPow is lying or they know that something bad will happen and they are pricing in lower rates for the future. We will see which side is correct in a few months.

so98nn

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Well we came out pretty nice in 90’s and early 20’s so I don’t think we have to worry about current situation. The primary reason was covid and completely halted supply chain in the process. The war broke out and it worsen the situation even further. However, if dollar is getting affected then so as to Yuan and other currencies in the world. If dollar is losing value then it’s gonna ultimately affect the economy in all 360 degrees no matter what. I’m pretty much sure that US Fed will start printing more money sooner or letter. They will impose some weird sanctions and control the economic outburst again. They have already started the process from halting the immigration. The US Visa site is always down. Everything is planned.

concept2

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Quote from: Eternad on April 03, 2023, 08:21:37 AM

Credit Card Debt ATH
Interest rate on Credit Card is on ATH
Leveraged buyout same as 2008
SP500 following 1946 crash structure
Unemployment rate at an all-time low
Similarities to the 1969 and 1974 crash
Mortgage applications for real estate at the lowest level in 28 years
US housing market is on verge of collapse
300 Billion added to FED balance sheet will cause inflation higher
Jerome Powell 2% goal in danger
Oil Production cut
Russia considers using Chinese Yuan as reserve currency
Saudi accepting Chinese Yuan for oil sales
BRICS new currency coming
Interest rates raised to highest since 2007
To be updated

Despite the good Bitcoin mini-bull run, We can't deny the fact that the global economy is on the brink of a massive crash. This summary of news is a warning that a market in Bitcoin is still at the table. Keep safe guys! I will update this recap regularly to give everyone an easy overview.

You can follow this https://t.me/TheNorwegianNews telegram channel for quick access to news. That's where I got all this info.

The global economy is totally about to take a dive, my dude! Credit card debt is through the roof, and the interest rate is soaring like a bird, just like what went down in 2008. Sure, unemployment might be low, but don't get too happy because things are starting to look like the 1969 and 1974 crashes. Even the US housing market is in shambles, with the lowest mortgage applications in 28 years.

To make matters worse, the Federal Reserve is pumping a massive $300 billion into its balance sheet, which is gonna lead to some major inflation. Plus, Jerome Powell's 2% goal is totally screwed, and Russia and Saudi Arabia might start using the Chinese Yuan as their reserve currency. The interest rates are the highest they've been since 2007, and there's a new BRICS currency on the horizon.

Bruh, these times are wildin' out! You gotta be careful and stay woke.The Bitcoin surge ain't no guarantee for safety. We gotta keep an eye on this messed up economic system and be open to new possibilities. The future's all kinds of uncertain, but it's up to us to adapt and make a dope world for ourselves and our peeps.

Ndabagi01

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Quote from: Husires on April 06, 2023, 11:13:45 AM

It is true that some countries have begun to think seriously about the existence of alternatives to the dollar, but bitcoin is still the number one reserve currency, and all plans will not change this dominance during the next 5 years, unless a world war occurs.

Everyone expects the US dollar to lose value in the global market following Russia's decision to use the Chinese Yuan as its reserve currency and Saudi Arabia's acceptance of it for oil sales. The United States is a powerful country that makes decisions in the global market, and they would not stand by and watch this happen.

In the global market, the majority country always wields the most power in decision-making. Even if this occurs, there will be a period of competition before the Chinese Yuan reaches the peak of US dollar dominance. Amidst all of this, there is no doubt that bitcoin will only be the world's number one reserve currency.

Husires

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The market always carries bad aspects and positive aspects, so news is selective and trying to compare it with models such as what happened in 1969 and 1974 is wrong. Even comparing it to the global financial crisis in 2008 is wrong because the economy has changed dramatically since that time and what happened in the past is completely different from what will happen in the future. .

It is true that some countries have begun to think seriously about the existence of alternatives to the dollar, but bitcoin is still the number one reserve currency, and all plans will not change this dominance during the next 5 years, unless a world war occurs.

Plaguedeath

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1946, 1969, and 1974 crashes, do you think Bitcoin exist before 1946? Grin

You're talking about macro economy problems, even though there's somewhat have small relation to Bitcoin, but it's not really make Bitcoin price is mostly affected by macro economy. You're forget to mention corona virus pandemic, it's really make most people panic and don't have money to invest in Bitcoin or they cashout their coins to fulfill their daily needs.

kaseygriffin

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I was just reviewing a movie, and it happened to mention that the S&P 500 dropped 2,000 points, an all-time record. And the cause of this is the appearance of aliens, so adding the OP's opinion.
But I have to admit that the signals in the crypto market recently reacted in a way that I think makes sense, as the economy is facing many problems. There is no doubt that the dollar is losing its position in the international market.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: o48o on April 03, 2023, 03:08:19 PM

Maybe i am noob at economics and you have to explain to be basics, but i can't see any connection with this and the possible crash.
This just means there are more workforce wanted so business should be doing good. Not to mention how good this is in individual level as you wouln't have to worry about not getting a new job if you get kicked from the old one.

this means that companies are more susceptible to wage pressure, because they cannot afford to lose an employee, because there is no one to choose from on the market. This has a pro-inflationary effect and this forces/enables further increases in interest rates, making it even more difficult to run a business. Increasing costs (employment, credit costs), decreasing profits (custommers Credit Card Debt ATH). This is the perfect scenario for the beginning of a crisis. In the next stage, companies go bankrupt, unemployment rises and the problems deepen.

Eternad

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Quote from: Fortify on April 03, 2023, 03:47:17 PM

I definitely found these the most interesting out of all the points and probably the most nonsensical. It's hilarious that you think countries like Brazil, India, Russia and China might come together into a single currency union similar to the kind that you find in Europe. They have vastly different economies and China would dominate the currency, which is why all the others would have zero interest in such a solution. It's also contradictory to suggest that China is heavily pushing the Yuan and also imminently expecting to join a new currency. Also, If this is the quality of your journalism then you would question why anyone would follow or use your channel.

This is not my own channel FYI, Besides this are just a key point for a possible reason for a market crash since it’s creating a noise globally. If this is nothing then you can simply ignore. I respect your opinion but you should direct it towards the news article that pushing it globally and not the person who compiles all the news that being talk now. You might have a point technically but a FUD can simply use all this news to make this all possible.

This is just a warning and not a guarantee that will happened. I believe all this news will not be published online if this is just nothing. Just ignore the thread if you don’t believe it.

Quote from: Yogee on April 03, 2023, 08:54:05 AM

Quote from: Eternad on April 03, 2023, 08:21:37 AM

Russia considers using Chinese Yuan as reserve currency
Saudi accepting Chinese Yuan for oil sales
BRICS new currency coming

Could you explain further how these three events could lead to a possible global market crash? I understand that the nations relying heavily on US Dollar or Pound or maybe Euro could be affected but is it not possible that other countries' economy could boom as well? Perhaps dedollarisation could cause a huge market shock if done abruptly but it is no longer something new to many countries. There also appears to be a dwindling dollar reserves at least according to this blog https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023/01/15/by-numbers-de-dollarization-of-global-trade/

Digital Yuan or the upcoming BRICKs+ currency will disrupt the the supply chains and will start by taking a big chunk of the pie away from the dollar OR will take over. This of course will create an immense untrustworthiness in the existing financial and credit system within the West and outside of there. It will influence all sectors all together.

Fortify

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Quote from: Yogee on April 03, 2023, 08:54:05 AM

Quote from: Eternad on April 03, 2023, 08:21:37 AM

Russia considers using Chinese Yuan as reserve currency
Saudi accepting Chinese Yuan for oil sales
BRICS new currency coming

Could you explain further how these three events could lead to a possible global market crash? I understand that the nations relying heavily on US Dollar or Pound or maybe Euro could be affected but is it not possible that other countries' economy could boom as well? Perhaps dedollarisation could cause a huge market shock if done abruptly but it is no longer something new to many countries. There also appears to be a dwindling dollar reserves at least according to this blog

I definitely found these the most interesting out of all the points and probably the most nonsensical. It's hilarious that you think countries like Brazil, India, Russia and China might come together into a single currency union similar to the kind that you find in Europe. They have vastly different economies and China would dominate the currency, which is why all the others would have zero interest in such a solution. It's also contradictory to suggest that China is heavily pushing the Yuan and also imminently expecting to join a new currency. Also, If this is the quality of your journalism then you would question why anyone would follow or use your channel.

o48o

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Quote from: Eternad on April 03, 2023, 08:21:37 AM

-cut-

Unemployment rate at an all-time low

-cut-

Maybe i am noob at economics and you have to explain to be basics, but i can't see any connection with this and the possible crash.
This just means there are more workforce wanted so business should be doing good. Not to mention how good this is in individual level as you wouln't have to worry about not getting a new job if you get kicked from the old one.

Other points made sense to me.

Nwada001

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The dollar is already losing value, and there is a lesser possibility for any country to choose the Chinese yuan over the dollar. The Chinese yuan is not an open currency that can be easily accepted as a global currency.
The Chinese economy is doing great for its people, but it's not bold enough for everyone. It can only be accepted by a few allies like Brazil, which is already planning a trade deal to ditch the United States dollar, if this has not already been concluded.

Debt-free and a stable economy are not just what make the United States dollar a generally accepted currency; there are also other criteria that should be met.
The euro stands a better chance than the Chinese yuan over the replacement of the United States dollar. But dedollarization is not going to happen anytime soon; the global economy is not ready for it yet.

Yogee

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Quote from: Eternad on April 03, 2023, 08:21:37 AM

Russia considers using Chinese Yuan as reserve currency
Saudi accepting Chinese Yuan for oil sales
BRICS new currency coming

Could you explain further how these three events could lead to a possible global market crash? I understand that the nations relying heavily on US Dollar or Pound or maybe Euro could be affected but is it not possible that other countries' economy could boom as well? Perhaps dedollarisation could cause a huge market shock if done abruptly but it is no longer something new to many countries. There also appears to be a dwindling dollar reserves at least according to this blog https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023/01/15/by-numbers-de-dollarization-of-global-trade/

Eternad

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Credit Card Debt ATH
Interest rate on Credit Card is on ATH
Leveraged buyout same as 2008
SP500 following 1946 crash structure
Unemployment rate at an all-time low
Similarities to the 1969 and 1974 crash
Mortgage applications for real estate at the lowest level in 28 years
US housing market is on verge of collapse
300 Billion added to FED balance sheet will cause inflation higher
Jerome Powell 2% goal in danger
Oil Production cut
Russia considers using Chinese Yuan as reserve currency
Saudi accepting Chinese Yuan for oil sales
BRICS new currency coming
Interest rates raised to highest since 2007
To be updated

Despite the good Bitcoin mini-bull run, We can't deny the fact that the global economy is on the brink of a massive crash. This summary of news is a warning that a market in Bitcoin is still at the table. Keep safe guys! I will update this recap regularly to give everyone an easy overview.

You can follow this https://t.me/TheNorwegianNews telegram channel for quick access to news. That's where I got all this info.

Topic: [Summary]Things to be considered for a possible market crash (Read 212 times)