Topic: Syria SITREP October 31st, 2015 by John Rambo (Read 589 times)

War in Syria and the Middle East SITREP

December 25th, 2015 by Rambo

The Western hemisphere may be slowing down due to the Christmas season but the wars in the Middle East still rage on. It seems that the wars don’t take into consideration Georgian calendar holidays.

Syria, Russia:
• A Russian naval submarine operating in the Mediterranean fired Kalibr cruise missiles against ISIL command centers inside Syria. [Source][Source]

• The submarine was an improved version of the Kilo-class (Project 636-M) featuring improved operability in severe conditions, improved radar and sonar capability, the ability to strike land, air and sea targets, increased range, and a host of advanced stealth technologies. [Source]

• Since the beginning of the Russian involvement in the Syrian conflict the Russian military has used a series of weapon systems and military equipment that has rarely, and sometimes never, been used in the past including strategic bombers such as the Tu-160, the TOS-1 thermobaric ‘flamethrower’, Kalibr cruise missiles, and the Su-34 fighter-bomber to name a few. [Source]

• The Kweires air base launches its first air sorties on December 15. [Source]

• In Kobani US, UK and French military advisors have been spotted alongside the Kurdish forces stationed there (YPG) [Source]

• Syrian troops were killed and injured in an alleged US coalition air strike [Source][Source][Source]

• The biggest faction inside the Islamic Front (which is part of the Army of Conquest) is the Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham, which issued 10 demands as part of its negotiation posture. The Army of Conquest is a GCC-supported operation group. [Source]
• Translation:
1) All Iranian and Russian military personnel must leave Syria.
2) The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) should be disbanded, along with their Shabiha (Popular Front militias, etc.)
3) All of Syria shall be united – no partition.
4) Syria will become an Islamic state.
5) No negotiations with the Syrian Government.
6) Fighting ISIS is secondary because rebels have lost family members because of the war with the Syrian Army.
7) Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham asserts – once again – that Syria will be an Islamic state. (Just in case you didn’t believe them the first time)
8 ) A secular Syria will only empower ISIS. (Is this a demand?)
9) Any agreement without HarakatAhrar Al-Sham will be considered “unsuccessful” and “unofficial”.

• The line Assad Must Go™ is being echoed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the US.[Source]

• The US has been on and off about the Assad Must Go demand [Source]

• Assad doesn’t care. [Source]

• Assad and his wife feel safe in Damascus to make a surprise visit at the Lady of Damascus church in the capital. Crowds took selfies with the president and first lady. [Source]

• Syrian rebels have left another enclave of Homs under a truce deal allowing the government to exert control over the entire city. Now the northern outskirts of the city are in open contest. [Source][Source]

• Russian ships en-route with more TOS-1 rounds [Source]

• Syrian Arab Army forces launched operations closer to the Turkish-Syrian border in Latakia.

• The video showcases a drastic addition to Syrian Arab Army tactics which makes use of an artillery weapon system, the 2S1 Gvozdika, as an assault gun. Meaning that these self-propelled artillery units (SPA) are not kept kilometers away in the rear for indirect fire support but are used in direct fire situations at the front line point-blank fire at enemy positions, using the powerful howitzer as a sniper cannon. [Source][Source]

• Other visible and notable features is the explosive reactive armor seen on T-55AMs (potentially the upgraded T-55MVs), TOS-1 bombardments of hilltops as standard operating procedure, and the adoption of infantry and vehicle markings (such as white crosses) to help pilots identify friendly units in close-air support missions [Source] [Source] [Source]

• The T-90 has been debuted on video finally, seen in combat in a bid to retake Khan Touman and Qarassi near Aleppo. The second source not only shows a video of the T-90 in action but in the end shows a dead terrorist dawning a Saudi Arabian National Guard jacket (warning, graphic timestamp 5:26). [Source] [Source] [Source]

• Syrian Arab Army forces, supported by Hezbollah and local Russian Air Force assets, have initiated new offensives in Palmyra against the Islamic State for control over the city. [Source]

Iraq:
• The Turkish invasion of Iraq highlighted that lack of military capability the Iraqi military currently has at its disposal (a mere shadow of the Saddam-era Iraqi military) [Source]

• Militias openly threatened the Turkish force [Source]

• Ramadi is still an ongoing battle between the Iraqi military and Shia militias against forces of the Islamic State [Source] [Source] [Source]

• The offensive in Ramadi has seen the deployment of Iraqi Special Forces as well as the use of coordinated US air strikes.

• A US airstrike has killed Iraqi soldiers fighting near Fallujah [Source]

The Islamic State:
• ISIL has a sophisticated supply chain which operates on the backs of black market weapon merchants, government intelligence agencies, and other facilitators. Although bomb making materials (such as agriculture-grade fertilizers) may come from Lebanon and Iraq, the majority of military-grade weapons flow from Turkey. [Source]

• Even without oil the Islamic State enjoys sizeable monthly revenue from taxes levied on the population under its administration [Source]

• ISIL looks towards Afghanistan for recruitment, launching messages throughout the airwaves (probably by having pre-recorded messages attached to a transmitter powered by a generator as to avoid being bombed by US air forces once triangulated). [Source]

• Islamic State territory has shrunk by roughly 14% over 2015. [Source]

• It can most drastically be seen in Iraq in where territory held by the Islamic State in May, 2015 (first source) has decreased compared to November (second source) of the same year [Source] [Source]

• The Islamic State has made the car bomb into a science [Source]

• The Islamic State seems to be suffering from a culture and societal issue much like the Peoples Republic of China in which its subjects do not respect public queues, steal each other’s shoes, and carry themselves in a despicable manner. [Source]

• Al-Shabab wants nothing to do with the Islamic State and has chased away anyone who pledges allegiance to the Islamic State. Al-Shabab is firmly in Al-Qaeda’s camp.[Source]

Turkey:
• Turkey has withdrawn SOME troops from the Iraqi expedition after facing a moderate level of pressure from the US and NATO for its rash decision [Source]

• The Turkish base in Mosul was very modest at best [Source]

• In various media outlets the idea of Erdogan’s son (Necmettin Bilal Erdogan) directly connected to the illegal Islamic State oil trade is being highlighted more and more, with some presenting a picture of his son associated with Islamists as proof [Source]

• Turkey has declared it has captured two ISIL agents inside Turkey with 148 original passports, the majority being European of nature. [Source] [Source]

• Turkey has deployed troops into Iraq in the past, such as in 2008 as part of an anti-PKK operation. [Source]

• It has been revealed by a Turkish MP, Eren Erdem, that Turkey has been directly involved in supply the Islamic State with chemicals for use in chemical warfare. [Source]

• Turkish troops inside Iraq have been attacked by the Islamic State, wounding 4 Turkish soldiers and killing 7 Kurdish fighters. [Source]

• It is unclear if any Shia militias in Iraq have committed any attacks against the Turkish forces that are stationed near Mosul.

• There have been several official and unofficial reasons for Turkey’s incursion into Iraq. Turkey sent forces into Iraq to do one or more of the following:
o To resupply the Islamic State
o To use Turkish forces as meat shields for the oil infrastructure inside Iraq used by the Islamic State to sell illegal oil
o Turkey has handed a series of game-changing weapon to militants (the rumors range from chemical weapons to anti-air MANPADS)
o The official reason; to train Kurdish forces (or Turkmen militias) to fight the Islamic State
o To retrieve Turkish nationals that were a part of the Islamic State before its imminent collapse.
o To execute several high-position Islamic State leaders who may have intimate knowledge of Turkish involvement.
o A cover for the insertion of US and NATO forces of varying levels (Special Forces, etc.)

Jordan, Qatar, UAE, and other Arab Countries:
• Jordan has published a list of known terrorist groups operating inside Syria, so far the list includes the right names [Source]

• Qatar is attempting to buy Soviet-era OFAB 250-270 bombs from the Ukraine (same bombs dropped by Tu-22s in Syria). Undoubtable the bombs can be detonated on ground in a civilian area inside Syria and be pinned on Russian air forces. Experts called to the scene will quickly issue statements how the bomb that was set off was Russian in origin and only Russia operates airplanes capable of carrying such bombs. In terms of false-flags this is very plausible and quiet easy to accomplish. [Source]

Yemen and Saudi Arabia (including Coalition Members):
• Islamic State attacks on Aden have increased, with the killing of Aden’s governor and his five body guards in a bomb attack. [Source]

• The UAE has deployed its French-manufactured AMX LeClerc tanks since the onset of the conflict. The LeClerc was the world’s most EXPENSIVE tank during the time the UAE purchased it (the recent devaluation of the Euro has put it behind the South Korean K2 Black Panther tank). Only the UAE and France, the original manufacturer, can afford to deploy the LeClerc. [Source] [Source] [Source] [Source]

• Yemen Houthi-aligned forces fire more ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia with KSA air defense intercepting one of the two missiles. Most probably the Yemen-based KSA patriot missile batteries were the interception platform described in the source. [Source] [Source]

• The UAE is stepping down its national forces and placing BlackWater mercenaries in their place. The first Blackwater causalities were recorded from December 8th to 11th which included a Mexican mercenary who was commander-in-chief of UAE Blackwater forces, a retired British officer, one other Briton contractor, an Australian commander, a Frenchman, and six to ten Columbians (depending on sources) [Source] [Source] [Source] [Source] [Source] [Source]

• The fact that so many died in such a short while might indicate an attack on a leadership unit or command facility/vehicle which may have had many private military foreigners within its vicinity. Generally mercenaries (private military contractors) are working for the money and are placed in areas where their expertise can be utilized (such as UAE hiring Western military personnel to man advanced weapon systems that locals are untrained in handling). Rarely do they ever do front line fighting.

• Much like the Soldiers of Fortune in Africa during the 60s, 70s, and 80s. Mercenaries generally kept their head down and would primarily set up impressive fireworks, do a couple of maneuvers and then sit comfortably in a local bar for the whole thing to blow over. (In the case of Africa those minor maneuvers proved intimidating enough to bring opposition factions to the negotiation table with the hiring government).

• Blackwater has lost 3 Apaches, 40+ military vehicles along with 7 regular cars & 5 armored vehicles during this operation [Source]

• Video of a downed American-built AH-64 helicopter gunship [Source]

• Yemen and Saudi Arabia held peace talks but the ceasefire broke down when Saudi Arabia violated the truce by launching airstrikes on Houthi targets inside Yemen (signature strikes). [Source]

• Video of Houthis going through Saudi Arabian positions after they’ve been overrun. Take note of timestamp 27:58 and 40:05 which highlights the pampered lifestyle of the Saudi Arabian military compared to their skeleton-thin Houthi counterparts. Yes I think that might be a Saker in 40:05 [Source]

• The KSA finally takes the Hanish Islands from Houthi forces displaying a strategic victory in this entire debacle [Source]

• Houthi forces are converting older SA-2 surface-to-air missiles into makeshift surface-to-surface rockets. [Source]

• Two senior Gulf commanders, Sultan Mohammed Ali al-Kitbi of the UAE and Abdullah al-Sahian head of Saudi Special Forces, were killed in an OTR-21 Tochka missile attack committed by Yemeni Republican Guard forces aligned with the Houthis. [Source] [Source]

• A Tochka missile was used in the past against a coalition ammo depot which killed 52 UAE, 10 Saudi, 5 Bahraini, and unspecified number of Yemeni troops loyal to the exiled prime minister. Another was used to strike a Saudi Arabian naval base. [Source] [Source]

• Tochka is another type of “short” range ballistic missile produced by the Soviet Union/Russia but augmented and modified by North Korea as well. [Source]

• KSA paratroopers are conducting a massive infantry airborne drop near Sana, some are rumoring this is a big bid to recapture the capital from Houthis. [Source]

• Saudi Arabia has been targeting infrastructure and civilians since the inception of the conflict, now focusing on fishing boats, assuming they are the primary source of smuggling weapons for the Houthis (which would sail through the Omani coast as Oman has been a silent partner in the Arab Coalition against Yemen. Oman shares a border with Yemen but has yet to send troops to support the Yemen operation). [Source]

• Saudi Arabia buying the silence of Western media now covered by wikileaks. [Source]

United States and Israel and friends (EU, NATO, etc.):
• If anyone wanted proof that Israel will fight to save the lives of Islamists then look no further as IDF troops risk their lives to provide medical treatment to this terrorist (video inside) [Source]

• Israel air strikes continue to kill Hezbollah members, this time a well-known commander by the name of Samir Kuntar who has a notorious past. [Source] [Source]

• Samir Kuntar was a Lebanese Druze who at the age of 16 snuck into Israel along with four other infiltrators. These infiltrators killed a police officer before breaking into an apartment building and taking a father and his 4-year old daughter hostage. Israel claims, with evidence, that Kuntar shot the father point blame and smashed the girls’ skull into the rocks while Kuntar claimed that it was the botched Israeli rescue attempt that got them killed in the crossfire.

• Although Israeli news outlets claim that a “youtube video by the FSA” has taken credit for the killing of Kuntar with an artillery rocket I can’t find the actual confession of the video. Israel maintains its ambiguous stance on the subject and denied to comment.

• Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary general of the Party of God (Hezbollah), has decreed that Hezbollah will retaliate at a time and place of its choosing. Even the Israelis have noted that Nasrallah does not lie, taking his threats serious (including ones where he openly claims Hezbollah has missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv). [Source]

• Hezbollah will even target Israeli politicians abroad as witnessed in 2012 when Iranian scientists were being bombed left and right. [Source]

• The first US commando mission into Syria is considered a success as units made contact with potential Syrian rebels to formulate new Western-centric strategies for Syria as well as help organize them to put pressure on Raqqa by harassing supply lines and assassinating ISIL fighters. [Source]

• American AC-130 Spectre gunships have been assisting the YPG for some time inside Syria flying under Russian radars. Take note of American YPG fighter Jordan Matson video of an AC-130 attack [Source]

• Compared to other Kurdish initiatives such as the Mutasim Brigade which captures the rounds from the Spectre howitzer as it assists them alongside the Sultan al-Murad Brigade against ISIL before the recapture of Harjalah, Aleppo on November 21st (timestamp of strikes 2:04-3:50) [Source]

• Another video of the same Spectre firing its 40mm Bofors cannon at ISIS in Harjalah. Impacts at the bottom right of the screen between timestamp 1:35-2:20

• The AC-130 Spectre gunship is a unique piece of military aviation only found in the US arsenal and has proven itself to be a very capable and robust close-air support weapon platform [Source]

• US withdraws a series of fighter jets from Turkey, stating the rotation is merely routine, but its timing right after the Su-24 downing may indicate otherwise. [Source][Source]

• It seems in the West two things will drive military recruitment campaigns, war-centric recruitment movies (ie Top Gun) and terrorist attacks. France has seen a wave of new recruits signing up to defend the republic. [Source]

Libya:
• After a lot of manhandling, threats, incentives, and posturing Libyan factions are finally unifying to end years of chaos and perhaps finally unite against ISIL, even though its grip in Libya is quite strong [Source][Source]

http://thesaker.is/war-in-syria-and-the-middle-east-sitrep-december-25th-2015-by-rambo/

The Middle East War SITREP December 5th, 2015 by John Rambo

December 05, 2015

A quick note: I do apologize for how late this SitRep is. Unfortunately I too must obey the great capitalistic system and submit to their demands (holiday hours) and the CIA is not known for its Christmas bonuses.

It seems great events unfold every 2 weeks in Syria. The downing of a Russian Su-24 by a Turkish F-16 fighter has been the highlight. Russian retaliation has been a complete exposure of Turkish connections within the Islamic States oil trade, the near carpet bombings and artillery barrages of the Islamist Turkmen frontline near the Turkish border inside Syria, and the a more active role in interfering in Turkish geostrategic opportunities. [Source] [Source] [Source]

The Western media quickly rewrote the narrative to obfuscate the facts and to reinforce falsehoods (such as the fabrication that the Su-24 was inside Turkish space when it was shot down and that Turkey responded appropriately). Turkey quickly ran to NATO to hold an emergency meeting.

Generally speaking (and I do not mean to insult any Turkish readers we have) comparing the three strongest Muslim nations, Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan (sadly Arabian countries cannot begin to match the output, physical capabilities, and domestic technology of these three nations) Turkey is by far the weakest of the three. It’s only benefit is its ability to acquire weapon systems from the NATO catalog (which translates to a superior Air Force and Navy). Pakistan on the other hand has a robust and capable intelligence apparatus (ISI) that singlehandedly managed to create a nuclear program (and weapons) by stealing technology from the West while Iran has a nearly self-sufficient military industrial-complex and battle-hardened and revolutionary elite forces. So in terms of operational capability Turkey falls far behind. (One just has to look at the 3+ decade’s long fight against the PKK to highlight the complete incompetence, albeit highly armed and numerical superior, Turkish military).

I’d like to note that Turkey was willing to open fire on an Russian Su-24 because of perceived air violation but the reaction to Israeli naval boarding of the MV Mavi Marmara and the killing of 9 Turks has yet to be answered militarily (it’s actually ten Turks who died, one died later in hospital after being in a coma for four years).

That is not to belittle Arabian state militaries; Egypt and its Western-trained highly-financed army is one of the most advanced Arab militaries. Its shortfall however is its direct dependence on foreign weapon suppliers for nearly everything (and the fact it has not fought a serious war since 1973). Saudi Arabia has ludicrous amounts of money, which in its own right, is a power of itself. Syria of course can be considered the most battle-hardened military in the Arabian world. Regardless they are fractions of the three giants of Turkey, Pakistan, and Iran.

But I digress, the situation in the Middle East has evolved as so:

Russia/Syria:

• There are rumors (but I am pressed to find a link) of Russian T-90s and even Russian special forces which have joined the battle in South Aleppo to aid in countering the never-ending numbers of TOW missiles in the hand of rebels.

• As mentioned a Turkish F-16 shot down a Su-24 in what can only assume is retaliation for the dent in war-profiteering Turkish elites were enjoying until Russia stepped in. [Source]

• One pilot was killed while parachuting down while another was rescued. A Turkish ultra-national seems to be claiming the credit. [Source]

• The Russian rescue attempt had failed as their Mi-8 helicopter began to take heavy fire and was forced to make an emergency landing in which rebels supposedly managed to destroy it with a TOW missile killing a Russian Marine. [Source][Source]

• Russia has responded with deploying the S-400 (even though pictures of its deployment has been seen in the past). [Source]

• Though this earlier deployment could have been a very successful military deception operation (Maskirovka which is “Russian military deception” which somehow is different than regular military deception. Much like terrorism and ISLAMIC terrorism.) Source is a picture of a dummy S-300 vehicle. [Source]

• This feels, to me, like a strategic victory for Israel and the US which is now able to study the emissions and methods of the S-400 in deployment. This weapon system, to my knowledge, has never left Russia before and therefore data collection on it by Western intelligence was minimal.

• An 18-man Syrian commando team linked up with a 6-man Hezbollah special operations team to assist the surviving Su-24 pilot as well as the Mi-8 crew/marines in fighting their way back to friendly lines. [Source] [Source]

• Russia also responded by flattening the entire area in which the Turkmen terrorists are operating from in a combined Russian air strike and Syrian artillery barrage. [Source]

• To demonstrate the gains of the past 2 months (August 30 to November 30) in a 2-image animated GIF; the breaking point of ISIL would show large swaths of black areas being recaptured in a matter of weeks. [Source]

• There is a ridiculous amount of drones in Syria, with Russian drones continuously capturing US drones on camera. Over 50 drones can be operating simultaneously in Syria and the Syrian-Turkish border [Source][Source]

Iran/Hezbollah:

• Iranian forces, backed by Iraqi militias, are holding significant portions of the front lines in Syria aside their Syrian Arab Army counterparts. [Source]

• Hezbollah, although suffering from causalities in the Syrian conflict, has exponentially expanded their capabilities with hardened experience in offensives as well as modern light-infantry warfare techniques (in which infantry must be ghosts in a battlefield of tanks, drones and precision weapons). I should note the Iranians have nearly mastered light-infantry warfare in a modernized warzone, Hezbollah is just getting the experience needed. [Source]

• Iran seems to be independently closing the technological gap against its regional adversary Israel. [Source]

• Major General Soleimani, an IRGC Quds Force officer, was involved in the Russian rescue operation apparently promising to return the living pilot back to his base.

Iraq:

• Millions (with some saying up to 26 million….) Shia visitors have come to Iraq for the Arbaeen pilgrimage. ISIL had claimed it would stop this (like Saddam). [Source]

• Iraqi Army has been seen deploying the GMLRS, US GPS-guided missile artillery. A weapon system marketed as excellent for counter-insurgency operations and reducing collateral damage in an urban environment. The first source is a demonstration during US occupation in Iraq. [Source] [Source] [Source]

• Fighting in Ramadi continues with fierce clashes [Source]

The Islamic State:

• ISIL seems to have made a huge error in declaring a caliphate and on top asking the world to attack it. Without its ability to hold onto territory (which nearly all caliphates require) the Islamic State may be forced to revert back to its form of being just a “terrorist group” instead of a quasi-state like Kurdistan. This reversion will highlight Gods lack of favor…. A huge PR blow to ISIL.

• ISIL is having issues maintaining manpower itself. Many Islamist veterans have left the ranks of the Islamic State discovering it’s primarily consisting of “hipster Muslims led by ex-Ba’athist Iraqis” and “foreigners with a demonic understanding of Islam”.

• The Islamic State has received reinforcements from Turkey including militants, munitions and vehicles. [Source]

• A reporter has managed to tour the Islamic State capital Raqqa and live to tell the tale. [Source]

• He talks about how there are many foreigners in Raqqa, many of them in the eyes of the reporter were people who may not have had any importance in their host countries (as many of them are Europeans). Some seem unwilling to discuss the difficulties of living in the Islamic State far from their Western comforts.

• Many of the foreigners who join the Islamic State are delusional youths, once ex-drug dealers in Eastern London now turned Imams, young misguided girls looking for their prince, and foreign extremists looking for plunder.

• Al-Nusra Front has traded Lebanese hostages for Islamist prisoners, including Baghdadi’s ex-wife and her two children (one being born inside the prison). She claims to have been divorced from Baghdadi for 6 years. [Source]

• The Islamic State can ill afford to commit to large formation battles such as that seen in Kobani in which many fighters were killed by the YPG and its US Air Force support. In Tikrit and Sinjar the Islamic State used mines, traps, IEDs, ambushes, snipers, mortar teams and other insurgency tactics instead of large formations of fighters supported with armor and artillery. Reflecting the shift into a decentralized small-unit formation instead of large troop detachments due to increased air strikes from all sides.

• Baiji seems to have been a diversionary operation in which Islamic State units began to withdraw in an orderly fashion (ie setting up IEDs, mines, and ambush positions) when Ramadi fell. If not a diversionary operation than it could be an adaptation of the Soviet Deep Battle in which successful fronts are reinforced (Ramadi) and stagnating fronts are abandoned (Baiji).

• Suicide car bombs are being used against the Iraqi forces with relatively good effect. [Source]

• The Islamic State stronghold in Libya is significantly more dangerous to Europe which is baffling why Libyan ISIL targets are not the priority for France, Germany and Britain. [Source]

• The Islamic State is eyeing Africa more and more, primarily for economic reasons and recruitment. Africa has been known for its illegal diamond trade, drug trade, and other resource-oriented smuggling. [Source]

• The Islamic State can ill afford to commit to large formation battles such as that seen in Kobani in which many fighters were killed by the YPG and its US Air Force support. In Tikrit and Sinjar the Islamic State used mines, traps, IEDs, ambushes, snipers, mortar teams and other insurgency tactics instead of large formations of fighters supported with armor and artillery. Reflecting the shift into a decentralized small-unit formation instead of large troop detachments due to increased air strikes from all sides. [Source]

The Yemen War (Houthis, AQAP, Saudi Arabia and Friends)

• Saudi forces are in total retreat in Yemen (see videos below).

• Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has captured a town from the pro-Hadi loyalist forces [Source]

• This puts them closer to Aden, the Houthi captured port city.

• Yemen is the third highest in terms of gun ownership in the world (behind Serbia and of course the number 1 US of A). There is no shortage of weaponry in Yemen regardless of outside support. [Source]

• When Yemen was a rich nation it purchased several complete Soviet kits designed to equip entire divisions, which included SCUD launchers. Yemen, as a Soviet client, was ordering equipment for two motorized divisions indicating there are at least eight SCUD launchers in the country plus potential spares. SCUD missiles of both Soviet and North Korean design were purchased by Yemen.

• Khat, a plant with amphetamine-like chemicals, is a common drug consumed by Yemenis. Houthis are seen chewing on khat inside their cheeks, giving them a slight euphoric feeling and somewhat sharpened senses. Drugs, alcohol, and warfare seem to go hand in hand in human history. [Source]

• It seems the majority of the fighting is done by the Saudi National Guard aided by loaned forces from African states as well as Colombian mercenaries [Source]

• It’s unclear, but highly likely, that the Saudi government has also hired Western private military contractors for logistical and intelligence support. However there is no direct proof of any PMC working inside Yemen in a combat role.

• Yemeni forces raise their flag on Saudi town of Rabuah in Asir Governate [Source]

• Combat footage (8 minutes each video) of Houthi forces fighting the Saudi Arabian coalition with great success [Source] [Source][Source] [Source]

• Causalities for Saudi Arabia are roughly 2000 soldiers (with 4,850 wounded), ~450 tanks, 4 US manufactured Apache Helicopters, 15 other military aircrafts, 3 boats and 200 billion Saudi Riyals in damage. The damage is a bit high and might be overestimated. Information comes from a Saudi dissident who leaks classified Saudi government files under the twitter account “@Mujtahidd” [Source]

• Saudi Arabia has a full-swing PR campaign, including opening up pro-Saudi think tanks inside Washington, to help cover its failings in Yemen [Source] [Source]

• Saudi Arabia has been constructing a super barrier between itself and Yemen since 2003 which involves: 3,397 trainees, 60 trainers to supervise operations, eight command and control centers, 32 interrogation centers, three rapid response units as well as 38 back and front gates with surveillance cameras. 78 communication and surveillance towers, 38 of the former and 40 of the latter, and is equipped with 85 surveillance posts, 50 day-and-night surveillance cameras, 10 monitoring and surveillance vehicles, a 1.4-million meter fiber optics networks, 50 radars, five 900 kilometer security fences, in addition to other barriers. [Source][Source]

USA/Israel/Turkey/NATO/EU States involvement in the Middle East:

• Britain has joined the bombing of the Islamic State. Stocks soared for weapon (defense) companies at the announcement. [Source]

• UN Mandate allows Islamic State to be bombed wherever, making the airstrikes in Syria by Britain completely legal. Not that legality ever mattered anyway. [Source]

• Germany will be getting some more of the action too. [Source]

• Turkish troops have illegally deployed inside Iraq for some notorious reason no doubt. [Source]

• Iraq has also said the US’s deployment of US special forces in Iraq was a ‘Hostile Act’ [Source]

• There is a debate inside the Iraqi government in which a faction is continuously saying that ISIL is undefeatable without the Americans, while another faction insists foreign ground troops are not needed. [Source]

• US forces are in Kobane as of November 26 [Source]

• It seems Israel and Russia have some sort of agreement towards Syria. Unlike that seen by Turkey and Russia. [Source]

• Israel has carried air strikes into Syria and against Hezbollah positions. It is claimed Syrian troops have been killed; Russian air cover has limits. It’s not known exactly what Russia is doing in the background to appease Iran or Syria, if anything. [Source]

• In what can only be called an attempt to seed the foundations of rewriting history, PBS has used Russian footage of ISIL oil trucks being struck in Syria and has given the credit to the US Air Force [Source]  [Source]

• Inside Syrian Kurdistan the US is setting up an airbase to directly assist in supplying Kurds and the Syrian Democratic Front; sources are shaky at best but there has been a pattern of the US setting up more assets inside the area for future operations (SAR teams, Special Forces on the ground, etc.) [Source]

• German intelligence (BND) has pinned the destabilization of the Arab world on Saudi Arabia’s impulsive interventionist policy [Source]

• Israel has secretly trained itself against Russian air defenses in Greece against Greek operated S-300 systems which was activated on Crete. [Source]

• In what I can only describe as weapon manufacturers trying to stir up more sales, CNN has made a piece about how the United States (the god of bombs and military-industrial complexes) is running out bombs. [Source]

• To be fair however during the Iraq war the US forces were at one point running out of various types of munitions and were purchasing them from NATO and Israel. [Source]

http://thesaker.is/the-middle-east-wars-sitrep-december-5th-2015-by-john-rambo/

Sat Nov 21, 2015 11:10

Iran Discovers Two More Terrorist Groups

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13940830001828

Following a series of intelligence operations by security forces in cooperation with the brave people settling along the country’s Eastern borders, a team of terrorists were dismantled in the Southeastern Sistan and Balouchestain province,” Iran’s Deputy Intelligence Minister for Domestic Security said on Saturday.

The deputy minister, who was speaking to the state-run TV, indicated that the terrorists have been sent to the country by the US and certain regional reactionary states, and said they had “10 ready-to-blast bombing devices made of 150kg of explosive materials” and “intended to disrupt security along the roads in the bordering region between Rask and Iranshahr” in Sistan and Balouchestan province.

After your daily dosage from the war propaganda porn industry in New York City and Washington DC, check this out. Yes, it´s very complicated.....

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The Middle East Wars

The Middle East is once again swept up in wars. Not since the early 80s has the Middle East experienced such a wide array of conflicts. Not only do we have the mother of all proxy wars in Syria but also a slew of campaigns and operations dotting the entire region and greater area from tribal skirmishes to transnational conflicts.

In tangent with the Syrian crisis is the Iraqi civil war, which has been continuous since the fall of the Saddam’s Iraq by US forces. Modern Iraq has rarely known peace. From the Iran-Iraq war, the two gulf wars, and now this never ending civil war. These conflicts have warped Iraq on multiple levels. The ghost of the Iraqi army is what we know as ISIL today. [Source]

There is the Yemen war which pits multiple belligerents in another Iran-Saudi proxy war between Houthi Yemenis (who are predominantly Shia but have large Sunni support) against the old and ousted Hadi-loyalist Yemeni government. Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State are also prominent in this fight.

Next is the Egyptian campaign in the Sinai against Islamists. This campaign has been ongoing since the fall of Mubarak and has increased in intensity after the military coup by Sisi that ousted the democratically elected Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood.

In the greater Middle East we have the Libyan civil war, the natural aftermath of the fall of Gaddafi. Thanks to the level of lawlessness Islamists have been able to establish a significant presence; one of these factions is no other than ISIL.

After Gaddafi fell there was a period of chaos in which militia groups fought each other. The lawlessness allowed petty fights to escalate into tribal and faction wars. Today the fighting has evolved between the newly elected government, recognized by the West, and the old (post-Gaddafi) government comprising of various political factions (the Brotherhood amongst them) which refuse to acknowledge the earlier elections due to the fact large parts of the country were denied the vote either through security concerns or no feasible means of reaching a voting center.

These wars have drawn in many international actors. Any EU country with a military has been involved in one or more of these conflicts. Of course they’ve been overshadowed by two heavy hitters, the United States of America and the Russian Federation.

This is the first time for Russia to take a more overt role in the campaigns of the Middle East. What was once considered United States territory is now being challenge politically, through the media, and even militarily (shows of force are not “peace-making” moves).

The Russian airbase in Latakia looks like one massive commercial of Russian equipment. Russia has been part of the club of “tested in combat” weapon suppliers for some time (Israel, the US, and sometimes the UK are part of this exclusive club) but now, in the age of HD video, the world is witnessing Russian power in the same way the First Gulf War displayed US precision weapons from the nose cameras of bombs dropped in Iraq.

The cruise missiles were the cream of the sales pitch. Now YOU TOO can own accurate cruise missiles without paying an arm and a leg to Raytheon.
Syria in itself is an even larger commercial of Russian capabilities. Alternative protection to legitimate presidents in third-world countries that may be threatened by Western intervention. Russia can provide political cover as well as the capability to move heads of state in and out of countries without world powers noticing. In today’s digital age of hyper-intelligence gathering a feat in itself.

One might even say it’s not the destruction of the Islamic State or the opposition forces in Syria that upset the United States, but the fact a competitor supplier is advertising their goods in the same Hollywood manner as they are fond of doing.

But the fighting doesn’t stop just in these countries. It continues to extend into countries like Turkey engaged in another operation against the Kurds in “Kurdistan”. In Afghanistan the Taliban are engaged in a prolonged nationalist war against the US-led occupation. There is spillover from the Syrian conflict into Lebanon from time to time and finally there is a potential boiling point in Israel and Palestine.
It’s safe to say this is only the beginning to something potentially larger which may engulf the entire region in one contiguous war.

Here is what is occurring in the core Middle Eastern theatre right now:

Syria:

• Pro-government Syrian forces are making gains slowly in areas of operation. The strategy has revealed itself as a slow encroachment on rebel positions. Every area captured by the government is locked down and reinforced until the next assault.

• Assault, capture, hold, reinforce, repeat.

• This war has seen its fair share of booby traps and other dirty tricks. Syrian forces have had to deal with mines and IEDs in recaptured territory. Possibly as a rebel/ISIL tactic to slow down Syrian assaults while retreating. Syrian military has also dished out its fair share of sabotage ammunition to opposition groups. [Source]

• Although very costly and time consuming, sabotage/spiked ammunition does add a huge psychological factor in deterring insurgencies and organized resistance. Opposition units will begin to distrust their supplies reducing morale. Should a sabotage round be cooked off it could disable the weapon or more effectively outright kill the operator. [Source]

• The SAA has allowed avenues of escape to remain open for Islamist fighters. This is to prevent any “last-stands” by the near-suicidal and desperate Islamists.

• There was talk about Assad committing to preliminary elections; probably the fallout of the meeting in Moscow (more below). [Source]

• The government has had issues securing supply lines since the onset of the war. These issues have always plagued offensives which need a consistent influx of supplies to maintain the momentum.

• The government has established checkpoints to monitor the roads and to deploy rapid reaction teams to assist convoys under attack.

• However the manpower shortage does mean some checkpoints won’t be as reinforced as others.

• A strategic depopulation of Syria has been underway for some time, resulting in the EU refugee crisis. May also be called human capital flight. By having Germany say it’ll take in as many refugees as it can and by encouraging the conflict to continue more and more of the moderate educated Syrians will leave Syria and the refugee camps of Turkey and Jordan for a better life in Europe and the US [Source]

Iraq:

• Co-ordination with Syria, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah has allowed the Iraqi army to continue rooting out ISIL and other supporting militias from Baiji.

• The Iraqi army is being supported by the Popular Committee militias.

• The Popular Committee militias are a predominately Shia organization which houses a multitude of tribal or independent Shia militias in Iraq.

• The Mahdi army, a once disbanded militia which had succeeded in fighting US occupational forces in the past, has been remobilized to help deal with ISIL. [Source]

• These militias were a real issue for both the US occupational forces and the new Iraqi military during that time [Source]

• The Mahdi army is one of the few militias outside Palestine to experience Israeli-like tactics of population control blockades and sieges in the hopes of destroying its power base (siege of Sadr city) [Source]

• Since the fall of Saddam the Iraqi army has gained some experience fighting against the Shia-militias in an operation to disarm them. [Source]

Iran/Hezbollah:

• Some slightly increased causalities of IRGC personnel reflect the increased involvement over the past week.

• Iran continues to flex its military capabilities and more importantly its independent military-industrial complex hardened over decades of sanctions. [Source]

• Iran has consistently had some kind of force operating in Iraq against ISIL and even forces that were once operating against US forces including the infamous Karbala HQ attack carried supported by the Quds Force [Source]

• The attackers were dressed in US military gear and managed to slip by security. The entire operation was retaliation against US raids targeted towards Iranian diplomatic missions inside Iraq. [Source]

• The increased presence in Syria will reflect how well Iran can commit in deploying combat ground forces on two fronts (albeit in small elite numbers).

• IRGC forces are more eager and motivated, some men being trained for over a year for the mission in Syria which includes a heavy dose of urban warfare tactics. [Source]

• Iran not only has Russia as a potential ally but both India and China have helped it stay afloat through its many years of sanctions. China has always been a customer of Iranian oil and natural gas and India at one point was paying Iran in gold to circumvent international sanctions aimed at Iran [Source]

• It’s only a matter of time now before Iran officially joins the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) of which China and Russia (along with Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan) are founding members. The SCO is a semi-NATO-like organization which extends to economic and political cohesion as well as military collaboration [Source]

• Iran has finally been included in talks regarding the Syrian conflict, along with Turkey, Russia, the US, and Saudi Arabia. [Source]

• Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah, has made a public speech at the end of the Ashura procession in person. For those that do not know: this man is very high up on Israel’s hit list. Most definitely top 5. When he used to make speeches in the past he would have to do it behind bulletproof glass. Today his speeches are digital and more frequent (unfortunately bulletproof is not air-strike bomb proof). [Source]

 

Russia:

• It seems like Russia is trying to create a political coalition to solve the Syrian problem.

• Russia had extended a hand to aid the FSA in its fight against Islamists and ISIL and to find a solution to the crisis. [Source]

• Russia has been talking to many opposition group representatives that claim to be “FSA” but these people have openly admitted there is no single unified command. [Source]

• It seems the FSA is what rebels take on as a brand name while the Army of Conquest is the Islamist with operation rooms inside Turkey and Jordan.

• Russia has begun talking to Jordan and has opened an intelligence co-ordination center. Jordanian intelligence and Special Forces are some of the more professional forces inside the Middle East. The King of Jordan has a gift of always playing both sides to keep his country afloat in ANY situation. [Source]

• Iraqi government has allowed Russia to commit airstrikes inside Iraq proper against ISIL. It’s unknown if Russia will or will not expand its operations; perhaps by deploying forward aircraft in relatively-safe Iran it may be able to launch airstrikes inside Iraq.

• Russia has the ability to use strategic bombers but operating those would be costly for its effect (to kill a few militants).

• Assad, the Syrian president, made a secret visit to Moscow and back without the notice of the megalithic US intelligence community. [Source]

• The high-level meeting may be to inform Assad of future political moves Russia might commit (and thus not to surprise Assad).

• It could be Russian cordiality, informing Assad that perhaps he might actually have to step down a lot sooner than expected. A call would have sufficed but Russians are really cordial people and such news should be said in person.

• It might be about increased military and intelligence cooperation. After all is there a base outside the ex-Soviet Union under Russian administration asides from Tartus? Is Russia willing to give that up with Assad?

• It may well be a large PR stunt to the world. Russia can get you out and back in your country with the Americans watching. That’s quite an achievement, especially to small countries that once assumed the US knows all, sees all, and can kill all, all the time any time.

• A Russian soldier appears to have committed suicide at Latakia air base. The official reason was depression due to a breakup with his girlfriend. [Source]

• The parents deny that their son would do a thing like that over a girl.  Suicides in deployments do happen especially if they’ve had recent relationship problems. 19 year olds are known to be the most emotionally stable people on the planet, especially when it comes to relationships. But there is also talk of potentially multiple injuries on his body. What exactly those injuries are have ranged from lacerations on his wrists and body (suicidal ideation) to burns and crushed bones from an explosion (could be a lucky rocket or mortar that landed in the airbase).  His body has already been returned and buried in his hometown. IF (big if) this was really a non-suicide it was most likely the typical story: Soldier goes AWOL for an hour from base to buy a pack of cigarettes in town, gets spotted by some insurgent/ISIL, barely makes it back alive (or has his body retrieved by Russian special forces on the ground).

• I’m probably going to get stabbed for this but…here goes:

• There is SOME talk that the slight dip in air strikes by the Russian Air Force deployed at Latakia is due to the fighter jets being pushed hard in consistent non-stop sorties. [Source]

• Of course the other aspect can be a logistical shortage, but that’s doubtful as proper planning negates that. It’s highly unlikely the Ministry of Defense would not have calculated the required munitions, spare parts, and fuel required for continuous air strikes in Syria.

• With the absurdly large number of sorties flown by the Russian Air Force in Syria it’s not hard to believe there is a strain on hardware. But then again generally speaking Russian equipment tends to be sturdier.

• Russian Mi-24 helicopters deployed in Syria seem to have anti-MANPADS defensive systems such as optronic countermeasure systems. [Source]

• Only some of the models seen in Syria appear to have the attachment. The source shows Mi-24 with and without the countermeasure system deployed at Latakia [Source]

• The Mi-24 for some reason doesn’t have their exhaust suppressors attached. That might be due to performance issues at low-altitudes. Exhaust suppressors would reduce the IR signature of a helicopter, reducing the effectiveness of MANPADS, most of which are guided by infrared light. [Source]

• The deployment of Russian helicopters in Tajikistan was probably due to some SCO agreement to help the Tajik government handle any ISIL-inspired groups within its territory such as their rogue defense minister.

• The SCO is probably why China is also mulling directly supporting the Russian operation in Syria. If China should join the operation it’ll be the first time their forces have entered combat since the Vietnam war in the late 70s to 80s. [Source]

US:

• The US is still mulling its options. [Source]

• A level of indecisiveness can be felt throughout the administration.

• The US has declared it will continue ground operations, escalating their involvement from token bombing runs to overt special operations. [Source]

• There are even talks that the US might go even deeper and further into Syria and Iraq to fight ISIL. [Source]

• This can be seen as a way to regain international credibility in its fight against the Islamic State.

• Iraqi forces along with Kurdish fighters committed to a ground operation (recorded on video no less) freeing ISIL prisoners. [Source]

• US Special Forces were helicopter-lifted inside the AO in an advisory role.

• A US Special Forces operator was killed in the operation. [Source]

• The advisory role can mean anything from helping ground-level commanders in tactical decisions (down to the company level; which means probably leading from the front) to deploying on the field as a support squad such as forward air observers or providing specialized covering fire (sharpshooting, etc.)

• The US is also busy flexing muscles towards China [Source]

Rebels in Syria (including Al-Qaeda/Islamist affiliates such as Al-Nusra, Army of Conquest, FSA, etc.):

• They seem to be trying to survive the Syrian assaults and Russian air strikes as best as they can.

• There seems to be no shortage of TOWs.

• So far the Russian air involvement has demoralized them more than any other belligerent in Syria.

• The Syrian Arab Army has made the majority of gains against these rebel forces.

 

Saudi-Arabia (and other GCC/Arab Coalition nations):

• More talk and talk.

• Problems in the Yemen, serious military problems.

• As usual the GCC can’t really produce anything, not even soldiers, and have hired foreign mercenaries from as far as Colombia to fight against the Houthi Yemenis. [Source]

• Qatar and the UAE have shuttled jihadists out of Syria and into Yemen.

• The newly shuttled jihadists will probably try to counter not only the Houthis but ISIL which has

• ISIL will probably absorb the more effective parts of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, stationed in Yemen.

• Qatar will not be sending forces into Syria in any future coalition [Source]

Turkey:

• More and more evidence of Turkish complicity in chemical attacks in Syria are beginning to surface [Source]

• Turkey understands that there is no solution to Syria without it being involved. This is true as Syria and Turkey share a large border. [Source]

• Turkey has increased operations against Kurds. [Source]

• It wasn’t long before a Kurdish bomb went off in Ankara, which can only harden the Turks against any future Kurd deal. [Source]

Islamic State:

• To better illustrate Islamic States actions one has can look at its roots.

• ISIL has been an offshoot branch of Zarqawis Al-Qaeda.

• For those that don’t know, Zarqawi was operating Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) during the US occupation.

• Zarqawi introduced ruthless tactics such as beheading foreigners, bombing holy sacred sites, killing Muslims (Sunni or otherwise), etc.

• Although original Al-Qaeda was still supporting Zarqawi (because his fighting in Iraq was drawing in more recruiters to Al-Qaeda) generally they disapproved of his overtly destructive methods.

• Al-Qaeda in Iraq created the Al-Nusra Front in Syria during the crisis.

• A cell within Al-Nusra Front began to achieve great success against government Syrian forces.

• While Al-Nusra was already violent, with rapes and mass executions in captured territory, the cell within Al-Nusra was even more ruthless by reviving Zarqarwis barbaric practices mixed with heavy enforcement of Sharia law in territory under their control.

• Al-Nusra (AQI) tried to reign in the rogue cell but it was already too big and too influential.

• The Islamic State was born (which has evolved from many names, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, IS….)

• Following the Islamic States separation the organization tried to redress grievances of Sunni and Ba’athist militias inside Iraq (the common cause being fighting the Shia-dominated government of Iraq, for ISIS the Shia are heretical muslims)

• Prior to the Al-Nusra fracture, Ba’athist militias and Sunni tribes actually fought Al-Qaeda because of their wonton killing of Iraqi citizens (Zarqawi was pretty barbaric, so much so its roots are still at the heart of ISIL nine years after his death).

 

Structure of ISIL:

• There seems to be more and more evidence that the Islamic State has a corp. of ex-Iraqi military and intelligence officers in charge of critical operations.

• These officers have managed to help the Islamic State coordinate itself and set up institutions to maintain the network required to keep the Caliphate functioning. [Source] [Source]

• Ba’athist officers are not only hardened by the years of warfare against US occupation forces and the Shia militias but also had experience in statecraft being members of the ruling political party of Saddams day.

• ISIL is not one homogenous organizations but a large formation of multiple militias, entities, organizations, intelligence agencies, Ba’athist loyalists, tribes, etc. A loose alliance held together by several key networks, one revealing itself now are the Ba’athist, another that exposed itself was Turkish Intelligence.

• Who is pulling what strings is yet to be known. Baghdadi may be just a front man to the real actors behind the scene.

• During the US occupation of Iraq, Syria had not only supported Ba’athist loyalists but had allowed Sunni jihadists to travel freely into Iraq to fight coalition forces.

• Iran supported Shia militias which essentially became proxy forces. These forces were used to deny the US the ability to secure Iraq. With Iraq in a continued state of turmoil future operations into Iran or Syria could not commence.

• The agreement reached by ISIL and the Ba’athist loyalist militia strengthened ISILs strategic and operational capabilities.

• The trade was probably financing and materials given by ISIL to Ba’athist militias in exchange for the expertise and connections as well as, of course, a pledge of loyalty.

• The expertise covers everything from training on weapon systems (artillery, tanks, etc.), small-unit tactics, improvised explosives, and even chemical weapons. [Source]

• After the agreement the fall of Mosul, Fallujah, Ramadi, Baiji and Tikrit followed which further furbished ISIL with more hardware, financing, and manpower

• ISIL had employed a psychological operation of consistently displaying itself as barbarically ruthless, this is especially true online.

 

Ba’athist Augmentation:

• The most influential Ba’athist loyalist faction was created by ‘the King of Clubs’ himself, GeneralIzzat Ibrahim al-Douri and his Naqshbandi Order. [Source]

• The Naqshbandi Order and ISIL have been seen fighting side by side in Iraq as recent as 2014.

• Al-Douri was a very skilled operational commander, he was head of the Revolutionary Committee in Saddam’s government and had proven himself in battle in the Iran-Iraq war as well as the First Gulf War.

• The general proved his capabilities in a successful (albeit short lived) coordination of Iraqi assets to aid in the capture of a Saudi town during the early days of Operation Desert Storm. This was during the relentless coalition air campaign which was bombing targets inside Iraq and Iraqi military units inside Kuwait. [Source]

• To achieve a minor success (the battle was, like all Iraqi battles, lost) in such an environment is impressive as it reflects well on the man’s strategic understanding of modern warfare. (This battle included the shooting down of an AC-130 gunship).

• This red-haired devil successfully evaded American forces throughout their entire occupation but is now presumed dead (April 2015) in an Iraqi army operation however it has not been confirmed by DNA and an audio tape of (supposedly) Douri has been released speaking of events after his death. [Source]

• These are the same types of officers ISIL recruits from and have been successful in molding ISIL forces into the practical force it is today. Mostly operational-level commanders who have an understanding in military organization and more importantly strategic competence.

• These ex-officers practice a form of Ba’athist-Salafism, although Saddam opposed Islamic politics in his early years of rule, in his late years he began to preach about a Ba’athist, nationalist, Salafism crossbreed philosophy.

• Saddam Hussein had a Quran written in his own blood. Yet owned Golden AKs; gold is haram for men in Islam. Just to reflect the nature of the man and his view towards Islam. [Source]

• He did warn however that the Islamists were not to be given full control as they did not want a secular Iraq where religion was a personal choice but to establish an Islamic state [Source]

 

Jihadist Tactics, Ba’athist Operations, Caliphate Strategy:

• The Islamic State utilizes what some might consider unconventional “fringe” tactics such as distributing amphetamine-like products to fighters (this has been witnessed as early as the 2003 invasion by incoming Syrian jihadist during the US occupation of Iraq).

• It’s most likely that the Saudi prince caught for trying to smuggle tons of Fenethylline through Beirut was going to hand them over to ISIL-affiliates. [Source]

• A mixture of religious scripture, amphetamines, and heavy weapons introduced to boys at an influential age of their lives (and denied the prospects of having a girlfriend) may highlight the indifference seen in ISIL fighters in the acts of barbarity they commit. [Source]

• Of course Ba’athist officers have used the barbarity as a method of spreading terror to their opponents.

• ISIL also has some mastery in psychological warfare. The capture of Mosul highlighted how just a little over a 1000 men can overcome an army 10+ times its size by terrorizing them to abandon their positions. [Source]

• This psychological warfare comes in the form of brutal execution and torture videos, the capture and rape of women and children in the Islamic Caliphate, the videos of legitimacy (such as undertaking state functions like courts, hospitals, street cleaning, opening up ISIL souvenir shops, flag production, coin minting, etc.)

• In terms of financing the Islamic State enjoys a variety of incomes, including donations by true believers and sales of oil on the black market.

• ISIL has no trouble finding recruits. For example the residence of Mosul feel betrayed by the mostly Shia Iraqi military for abandoning them, it’s not hard to find recruits amongst these Sunnis who have already fled Shia death squads supported by the government in its earlier years. [Source]

• Many Al-Qaeda or Islamist militias have pledged loyalty to ISIL which has allowed the Islamic State to have power in a multitude of countries.

 

On the Syrian-Iraqi Campaign:

• The Islamic State seems to be committing to attacks against Syrian government forces but not capturing territory.

• Harassment on Syrian supply routes have been more common. The longer the supply route the harder it is to maintain security on it. Offensives have been stalled due to the effective strategy.

• This was the same tactic the Ba’athists refused to use on invading US forces, who also had supply lines stretched thin due to overextended assaults.

• All this indicates a long-term resistance, keeping the Syrian government forces occupied while ISIL regroups.

• In Iraq the Islamic State is pressed to find a new vector to attack the Iraqi government.

• Just like in Syria ISIL is consistently harassing the Iraqi military with suicide attacks while the Iraqi military continues its thrust into Anbar province.

• ISIL still seems determined to fight with fierce resistance even though it’s facing forces from all sides.

• Right now most (but not all) ISIL branches outside Syria and Iraq are funneling in fighters from their respective regions (like Libya).

• Iraqi government has been trying to talk to the Ba’athists to shift ISILs center of gravity however to what level of success that would bring is very unclear [Source]


http://thesaker.is/syria-sitrep-october-31st-2015-by-john-rambo/