Alik Bahshi
Syria's Trap for Netanyahu It looks like Netanyahu is in deep trouble by invading Syria. The hope that the longer Israel is at war, the more secure his place as Prime Minister will be is not unfounded. Yes, there is a saying "don't change horses in midstream", but in this case, the main thing is the opinion of Israeli society, and most of it is for the annexation of the territory of neighboring states, however, as in Russia, where the Russian people enthusiastically welcomed the annexation of Crimea and did not object to the large-scale war with Ukraine started by Putin. It must be said that, unlike Putin, Netanyahu, at first glance, does not risk anything. In principle, Netanyahu can open several more fronts, and there is no fear of being, so to speak, on seven fronts (winds), if Israel has a strong Jewish lobby in America behind him. Netanyahu, because of his ambitions, does not particularly care about the needless death of Israeli young men, which is clearly seen in the example of the war in Gaza and the fate of the hostages. In vain, because I consider the war with the Palestinians to be an aggressive one, the goal of which is to destroy the Palestinians and their state, which Israel did not allow to exist by occupying it. (1) If Israel failed to implement its plans for seventy-eight years, then today, when the world community is extremely hostile to Israel because of the war in Gaza, it is hardly feasible.
Of course, Netanyahu, giving the order to the army to cross the border, took advantage of the fall of the central government in Syria and the shameful flight of Assad's Russian defenders. By the way, here again there is a direct analogy with Putin, who, taking advantage of the change of power, invaded Ukraine, allegedly with the aim of ensuring security, because the new government in Kyiv, in his opinion, intended to attack Russia.
However, I believe that Netanyahu, by attacking Syria, has doomed Israel to serious problems this time.
Under Assad, Israel's relations with Syria were strained, but nevertheless stable in terms of security. Israel did strike from time to time, but only at Iranian military facilities located on Syrian territory. Assad's main concern, like any dictator, was to stay in power. For him, the democratic revolution that had begun was much more dangerous than the violation of Syrian airspace by Israeli aircraft. The democratic opposition forces were supported by Turkey and were concentrated in the north of the country in the Idlib region, with a predominantly Turkic population. Idlib was constantly under attack from Russian aircraft, and when it became known that Assad had given the go-ahead for the use of chlorine, then-President Trump loudly declared in response that he would take retaliatory military action in the event of an attack by government troops on Idlib. As a result, an armada of warships, including the aircraft carrier «Harry Truman», entered the Mediterranean. These forces significantly outnumbered the Russian fleet concentrated off the coast of Syria. In such circumstances, providing allied obligations to Assad meant one thing for Russia - to enter into an open military confrontation with the West. Moreover, Turkey, in order to strengthen the Syrian opposition, introduced heavy military equipment into Idlib, including 50 tanks. Putin then faced a serious dilemma: either to tuck his tail between his legs again and remain a bystander to Assad's defeat, or to see the scenario of the Wagner military operation near the Euphrates again, but only on a much larger scale. Then the Americans chopped up the Russians, who intended to enter the eastern territory of Syria with oil wells, like cabbage. In both cases, Putin will not escape shame. But here he is saved by the cunning Erdogan, who seemed to be just waiting for the right moment to offer Putin a deal that the latter could not refuse, because otherwise he could lose everything. In short, as a result of difficult negotiations in Sochi in September 2018, which lasted more than 4 hours, Putin, in order to avoid a shameful defeat, refuses to attack Idlib and, contrary to Assad's wishes, accepts Erdogan's proposal to create a 15 km buffer zone under Turkish control.
Thus, firstly, Erdogan prevented an open military clash between the American coalition and the Russians in Syria, and secondly, he secured Turkey's control over the Idlib province, thereby correcting the mistakes made when dividing the territory of the defeated Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I by Great Britain and France, which arbitrarily drew borders without taking into account the ethnic composition of the population.
In fact, Putin had already betrayed his ally Assad back then, in order to save face, paying with part of the Syrian territory. (2) From that moment on, the fate of the Syrian dictator and his Russian defenders was sealed. Erdahan managed to achieve two goals:
1. To bring northern Syria with its predominantly Turkic population under Turkish control.
2. Bring to power the Syrian democratic opposition, which owes him a lot and will not be against the construction of a gas pipeline from Qatar to Turkey through Syria, which Assad opposed at Putin's request.
If the gas pipeline from Qatar to Turkey becomes a reality, then Turkey will become the main gas hub for Europe. Gas from Qatar, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will flow to Europe through Turkey. And all this bypasses Russia, which can be said to be fatal for it. True, Turkey can connect Russian gas without a problem, but in this case, Russia becomes economically and politically dependent on Turkey. It must be said that this is precisely the reason why Putin helped Assad in exchange for his promise not to provide Syrian territory for a gas pipeline from Qatar. Of course, Turkey in the current situation is in close political and economic ties with the new government in Damascus, so the invasion of the Israeli army into Syria could lead to a new military conflict, and a more serious one, which did not happen under Assad.
The fact is that instead of dictatorial power, in Syria, which has embarked on the path of democracy, the government will be elected for a term determined by the Constitution. As a result, the president or prime minister will not be concerned about maintaining their post for life, as was the case under Assad. This circumstance is associated with greater freedom of action without personal risk to the first person of the state, and then Syria will respond with a just war to Israel for aggression and it is necessary to think that Turkey will not remain on the sidelines in this case. If Israel labeled all its military opponents as terrorists, then it is unlikely that it will be possible to accuse the Syrians of terrorism. By the way, Erdogan said that he will not allow terrorists to rule in Syria. It is not for nothing that the Iranians, who were patronized by Assad, have rushed to leave Syria. It is difficult to predict what reaction Washington will have. Currently, the UN is facing a reorganization of the Security Council, which, as reality shows, has lost the ability to properly respond to ongoing military conflicts, for which it was actually created. If America today has the right to veto Security Council decisions condemning Israel, then tomorrow such a right may not exist.
1. Two states for two peoples.
https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/104990.html2. Putin in the multicolored Syrian revolution.
https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/73092.html01/15/2025
