Topic: TA indicates a bull run is coming - page 2. (Read 772 times)

Its generally true that Bitcoin likes to chart the extremes so I definitely consider the lows long term when we rise alot as a possible scenario.     So far the action has been very positive in this latest break of the 50 day average but the stronger ceiling to break far more then MA indicators and momentum considerations is this amount of volume going to a year ago and before that lies overhead of the 10k area.
  I think it can get past 10500 but I think at present its still resting near to the previous high we've seen since March and also similarly in Feb the high was around here also.   So it has to be said price continues to need to prove itself to really be bullish, obviously it looks good in this last week to recover this well.
  Also watch the lows for a strong trend, 9800 as a low price must be support now I think is a quick measure thats fair.

$15,000 incoming in the next couple of months.

    It's good and very positive prediction for all of us, but I think the same as you Gabbie2010, first to break $10k resistance
after we will break next resistance, it's how we will grow and rise.
   I am not sure when we will see a bull run, this or next year, and probably not all of us imagine that bull run the same, for
me bull run will be when we make new ATH, everything before that is just ordinary crypto-market fluctuation.

 A good analysis indeed  the price need to break a strong resistance zone at $10,000 ad that is the only clear signal for the much awaited or establisha  bull run once that  zone is broken ad a retouch ie resistance turning support is a sure indication that the bulls had return to the market,  to achieve that a great deal of volume is needed and massive buying or a positive fundamental news will trigger price volatility and momentum overall the price looks bullish.

this pandemic issue is affecting the market in my opinion and that is why the price is not increasing much

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that phrase: "bull run is coming" became funny

the price is fluctuating from $9000 to $9,600 and the times it tries to break the $ 10,000 it drops a lot and it has been like this for months so I will only be optimistic when I see the price break the $10500 and stay stable above the 10500 $ and after that has the problem of not being able to break the $13000 as well. we are really in a bad situation

Indeed, this is why I'd conservatively put that metric at Bitcoin's longest MA, that currently stands at the average price of a Bitcoin in the past 10 years. I realise this isn't the average price paid for a Bitcoin since it's inception, that worryingly sits around $411 Price dropping below it's "total average price" would be a turning point for me though, as it's never hapened. Depending on when this could happen, it'd likely mean dropping below $3K next year would be macro bearish for the first time in history. I think this is very unlikely, but anything is possible. I find this MA to also be in confluence with price action too.


I also agree with this, manly because it would expose the $3K lows to be re-tested. The potential for a 50% drop would clearly be very bearish! Even finding a higher low around $4K would still be a bearish with a 30% move down from the 200 Week MA. The one thing I have considered is that potentially 200 Week MA isn't the "line in the sand" for Bitcoin, just as the 200 Day MA has proven to be fairly irrelevant in recent years. Looking from a different perspective, maybe Bitcoin found support from a long-term moving average that appeared half way through the bear market (and on other exchanges such as Bitstamp, at the lows of the bear market). If the same were true, we'd be looking for the 8 Year MA to be the line in the sand, currently at $3.2K, roughly $3.6K by next year.

Scary thought huh  

Hard to say what metric to go by since we've never really seen a bearish super cycle in BTC before. It's uncharted territory.

If we drop to $6K or below without an immediate V-bottom type reaction, it'll look pretty bearish to me. I've got xxxx123abcxxxx's sub-$1,000 scenario in the back of my mind: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.54692944

I used to also think like this, given in traditional markets these are the general conditions of bull & bear markets. But the following seems more true to me:


This is also my barometer for long-term bull markets, as it appears to be much more consistent compared to the 200 Day MA;


My most bearish scenario would be reaching the 6-8 year MAs in the $3.4K (double bottom ish) to $4.4K (higher low) range, as opposed to current values. This could also still turn out very bullish long-term, even if I find it unlikely right now given the 6 year strength of the 200 Week MA (roughly 4 Year MA):



I wouldn't be truly bearish (like $1000 incoming) until Bitcoin breaks below it's 10 year moving average however that's around $2,544

Yes, everyone who still have the trust to this market are all hopeful that the bull will come and bring the wave high.


Still playing round that level and it's much better than seeing the price to fluctuate and experienced heavy fall.


Even there's no certainty, we should keep our assets and believe that bull will show up and bring huge benefits to our investment.

We've popped above and below the 200-day MA six times in the last year. In this sideways range we've seen since the 2017 top, it hasn't been particularly meaningful.

The 200-week MA is my ultimate barometer of the long term bull market. It's held strong since 2015 and currently stands at ~ $6,250. A wick below would be okay, but holding below for any length of time would be very worrisome.

Maybe a bull run is coming and some are waiting for it too. Its only a matter of when it will happen .

For me, as long as the price of Bitcoin doesn't go below the 200 Daily MA and the 21 Weekly MA then my sentiment will still be bullish along the way so I'm still expecting for a bull run to happen but right now we are at around $9000-$9500 for more than 2-3 weeks already I think.

Well, if a bull run will come it will come so lets just wait for it to happen .

Volume is relative. He's just talking about a low volume rise, and pointing out the subsequent effects it could have on demand. This can happen when bulls slowly accumulate all the supply in a given price range, then begin pushing upwards.

Low volume = bears can't easily exit their short positions. Due to this liquidity vacuum, price can rise very quickly in a very short amount of time. A short squeeze, more or less. The price will stop where supply comes in.

Technical analysis can give us different answers because we have different styles and perspective when we use it. I'm a short term trader and I do not see any bull sign in the price so basically I do not put huge volume there but whenever I see good sign, I think I will add to my current position. Always remember that TA is not always right, it only give us an idea on what will happen and where the price will go.

We are having a lot of prediction this. At tradingview we are seeing expeets saying the samething op is saying. I think bitcoin did not have enough volume to make a surprising upward movement and at that I think it actually need to step down below $9000 in other to gather volume for next upward movement.

the price can't rise without volume unless the asset is already dead and one pumper is pumping it! but when the rise is natural and the increasing demand is increasing the price that means more investors are buying that asset hence the increase in volume.
additionally as we get closer to resistance levels more sells take place from day traders thinking they can make profit and buy back after the fall which means if the rise continues they all panic buy back and increase the volume even further.

It would be excellent if it went up almost without volume, because not having a lot of volume means that there is no floating offer, however, it is likely that it will start to rise to test those levels, I hope it will be met.

Although the pattern is similar to that of the period you name, this year is somewhat complicated by the fundamentals.

no not all . only legit traders can do that  . look at me , im not a trader and i cant do a t.a but its possible for me to get info from others and get a graph online and share it with here  .  we cant trust anyone because they can be acting and only want to miss lead us for thier own good  . better if we trust people that have known to provide legit t.a's   . i like your mindset but its not possible for btc to always rise or moon  .  its not bad if it will be stable or experience a pump for a few times

^ Definitely right, because everyone can provide by our own TA just simple plot a graph and compare to the previous price as your indicator. Personal TA is just like your own opinion that based on your own idea. However, everyone can do that if they are really want to, that is why random TA form random people are always doubtful for us because we have different ideas and opinions. Nevertheless, even how many TA was there but my mindset towards in bitcoin prediction price is the same, always hoping that the price will always to the moon.

Great! I'm glad you've learnt the first lesson of trading and investing: never trust a random person on the internet.
Best of luck!

Nice analysis but the longer time frame in which this is taking place makes all the difference in the world, after a sharp rise we saw a stabilization of the price only to recover its strength and go back up, the circumstances are different now, the stabilization period is very long so I do not see any pump in the cards and when you add the health crisis and how badly the economy has been performing during the previous months then it makes almost no sense to see such huge pump.