Topic: TA indicates a sharp drop soon (Read 972 times)

I think there is strong support in the $7k area. Unless there is manipulation, we are not going to see $5k.

Until bitcoin breaks $10500 and sustaining above there we cannot be confident about change of trend. But, today we experienced reversal of market as prices topped the weekly high. This could turn as a trap for bears to make them exiting at stop losses. I was expecting a short term bull back up to $9300 levels but surprisingly bitcoin peaked up to $9580 levels which shows the dominance of bulls even the overall trend is not favor to bulls.

There cannot be no such commodity existing without compatible with technical analysis. There are occasions on which most commodities may trade by making technical analysis wrong but those are the occasion supported by strong news and government decisions.

TA applies to every natural force in the universe, humans trade BTC so it applies.   Just dont call definites and we good.



Possible channel down, I think bearish is a reasonable consideration at this point.  Process not event
  Lower highs, bullish trends worn and passed, retested.   Only factor that doesnt really fit for greater negative is mostly rising moving averages.

TA doesn't apply to Bitcoin.

We can't see the real scenario that will happen in the next days but looking into the chart and watching closely from November 2018 to January this year, it most likely the same as what it happens from January to mid-March. I see that every 3 months gap the market drops and that could be possible this June.
Though the trend it looks the same but has to think also that a lot of factors could affect the market and that possible we can escape from the base of that expected drop on the previous performance.

Supply being captured by governments, through paper speculation and contracts, and then creating a global, centralized cryptocurrency to take its place.
The best way to deal with it is to regulate the exchanges through a non-governmental council, which would put circuit breakers in their books. This could be done through code as well.

The "fact" you are talking about is a factoid, created by a priest from the hodl cult, who dont want to see bitcoin being adopted by the people, but only used for speculation, and only for their whale peers. You can just put me on ignore, like I did with them.

Speculation has nothing to do with the fact that you are on a mission to spread FUD on this forum. What analysis can predict that 1 BTC will be worth $0.85 in year 2028? It has nothing to do with any technical analysis or market sentiment, it’s just plain nonsense coming out of your mind.

I will be looking forward to your TA indicators just to understand what is going on, i was expecting the market to go down as the price was not able to break the resistance for a long time and i was in two minds because there is always a possibility to breach the resistance when you least expect it but when it failed to breach again it went down but it is still holding above $9300, the next few days will determine in which direction the market goes.

Still the descent isn't confirmed yet, we should at least see a couple of tries and if then also the price fails to rise more than $10,300 then we can get a confirmation that it is not going up. I will feel sad for the miners who are still holding on their bitcoins thinking that the price will increase after a few months of block reward halving and still the Price isn't going anywhere and still the same. If the bitcoins price drops now then we will see a lot of decline in the total network hashrate as a lot of mining operations will become unprofitable.

It is always a shocking thing for me on seeing the speculation on down markets are working perfectly whereas bullish trend based speculations were proved wrong. I am just talking about the recent times but I kept ignoring all the speculations which talked about "possible drop" but they finally proved me wrong .

Today bitcoin showed a sharp downfall it was recovering from day before yesterday's $9200. But right now it is trading around $9100 which may do anything from here like it go further to test $8600 levels of may keep sustaining around the current level and then may start climbing up slowly toward $10k level too. I am not seeing any major trigger for this fall other than few technical reports which showed about drop. I read US stocks are dumped but not sure how bitcoin investors got panic due to that.

So pointless that you take the time to answer it.
This is the speculation forum. You either deal with it, or you ignore it.

All my predictions are based on market sentiment and general look over TA. Right now bitcoin is pointing to 5k. At the time of the outbreak, it was pointing to three digits. In fact, it would have reached zero if it wasnt for a hardware malfunction at Bitmex.





I would not go all-in into fiat. The bear market is still there, but it is old. A old market can die easily.
I prefer to sell 5% and stack the fiat into rebuying. This minimize any losses in case it recovers.

Also there is a untested support around 7k.

When will happen drop to $500? As usual your posts are completely pointless speculation without any basis, and no one should take them seriously. If you want to play Nostradamus I have advice for you, predict things at least 50-100 years in advance - so you won't have to be ashamed personally when they don't happen. Something has definitely failed in your case, but rest assured it’s not Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is going to 5k, but it will be a slow descent, not a sharp, fast drop.
So you will have time to sell some.

It looks like your prediction is right, Bitcoin fell to $ 9000 today,
how is the future? is it worth holding or do we have to sell it now?

Dont worry because while your thread talks about Sharp drop other Post tells the opposite thing so let it happen because i am not affected because i can certainly Hold my Bitcoin even there is a big changes in price.

and besides Many people like me whos looking for a chance to Buy again then if this happen and likely to fall at 5k$ level?then i definitely get another portion to add in my holding.

TA is for possible paths, better then being in the dark.     We dropped down but only within a range still, as we remain in the 9200 area I will have zero surprise if it repeats this all tommorow again rather then moving downwards from here



A close below 50 day is significant but Im waiting for it to pass 50 week as this has been the low on a larger time frame so often since March, but just that is a fair move down 8700 abouts now.   Its all tradable action.

I would say this is just a quick chart that is for daily and if the drop would have happened it would have happened already. The price point of $9k to $9.5k is very strict and doesn't look like it will be moving anytime soon neither, I believe this is a very good period for bitcoin to break out. Look at the weak resistance as well, there is really no true wall in front of it neither, bitcoin could destroy everything in its path all the way to above $13k before it can face any challenge neither.

However all of these are analysis with regards to what we can see, this is bitcoin world and there are tons of stuff we can't see that is going on as well. That is why I believe we should focus on what could be going on that we can't see before we start discussing what will happen according to what we know.

Only TA is not something that you can fully rely on.
Yes, it could be helpful if used correctly however it's only indicator that doesn't need to be correct at the end.
Before making any kind of decision it's good to consult some other sources.
Price drop is always possible but it's hard to tell in which extend. I don't think there is any reason to panic.

We have a bullish 3 day ascending triangle which usually breaks out just before the apex, but in this case it failed to materialise. Interestingly, the break downwards is only partial in that is hasn't dumped yet and we have reached the apex.



Price movement is now non-existent so direction still isn't clear either way However, as it failed to break upwards on 2 occasions the momentum looks slightly in favour of the bears, but without that break downwards at the apex it is still unconfirmed

If Bitcoin were to follow any pattern, then a more significant drop could occur if we look at what happened in 2016 after halving. Then there was a drop of about 40%, but the price was below $1000 at the time so it didn't look so drastic. However, recent events have shown that any drop in price is very short-lived, and that Bitcoin is generally very resilient and cannot be destroyed just like that. I think it is clear to everyone that the greatest strength that Bitcoin has is in ordinary small people and its decentralized nature.

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I understand very well that for some people, even $1 is a significant amount, because it means whether they will eat something today, or they will be hungry. On the other hand, if someone has 10 BTC and the value drops by $500, it means that he has lost a total of $5000 - of course you need to know how to deal with it mentally, and understand it as just a temporary condition. After the rain always comes the sun

TA does not predict everything correctly. Since bitcoin is fundamentally strong I don't thing it can drop sharply. I think it may retest 10,000$ few times before breaking it out.

Seem like bitcoin will fall as your prediction, but if I saw the increasing price in several times ago has formed an Elliot wave pattern.

There are at least five impulse waves has made and now its price will make a corrective wave in a few days ahead (apparently).

So if it happens, we can expect that bitcoin price will make five impulse waves again and will past the $10.500 barrier as its resistance.

To me, bitcoin is still on a bullish market, there still many predictors who believe that bitcoin will hit another all-time high, let's pray it gonna happen.

Still, that amount is good for me

But nevermind, maybe I need more luck to make more profit than now. I am not a big trader, and I just try to make every profit from trading, even for a small profit.

Yes, it is better to load more bitcoin before the price start to increase. But somehow, I think I need more time to observe the price first before I decide to buy more. Maybe waiting for more will be good for me while the price now still not move up or down.

OP is expecting price to decrease more in upcoming weeks. So price might decrease much more then just 5%. I totally agree that a 5% drop for Bitcoin is nothing. 

good analysis, but the Bitcoin trend is still positive, so for a dump or a bear I don't think it will happen,
it might be held at $ 8800- $ 9000, and it won't be less than that

It fell a bit because it still follows the stock market. We had a big stock market crash in the last few days which managed to drag BTC down along with it. The positive news is that as some analysts have pointed out, bitcoin is becoming detatched from the stock market, just like gold. The first drop was significant, but the one we've witnessed in the last few days was really small compared to March. The situation is looking very similar to a reversed 6k in 2018. Back then the price was hitting 6000 for 3 months until it finally broke and we fell to the bottom of the bear market. Now, since May, we've been seriously attacking 10k and I believe it's going to break towards 12k in a few weeks.

Price now improved to $9438 after falling to $9,100 on Friday. Bitcoin is really showing a high volatility currency. I expect a more upward movement by next week to show a closing of correction from falling from $97,00 area.. By all means, is still a better time to buy more.

Of course, not everything is as ideal as it seems at first glance - behind the whole story there are a lot of small details that you are actually talking about. Bitcoin is not something that can be constantly profited from, at least not for most people - but the fact that Grayscale buys it in such quantities still means something. By the way, do they still continue to buy more BTC?

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Another good or maybe positive news is that JPM has started providing banking services for Coinbase and Gemini. As much as a good part of the crypto community does not have a good opinion of banks, it is still the largest US bank and the sixth largest in the world. If large institutions show direct or indirect interest in crypto, then this is a good sign for all current and future investors.

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If we say that BTC lost $500 in value, it means that you lose that amount only if you bought BTC for $9900 and sold it for $9400., And only if you sold one whole BTC. If you need to sell for example 0.01 BTC every week, last week you get $99, and today you get $95. So for small amounts it is just few $ which you lose depending on the amount you sell.

Most investor, and not all investors
Crypto investors are not all people who have a lot of money


I believe that 8% or $500 for a drop will not be much worried for traders who have a lot of money to trade. But for people who have a little money, that will make them afraid, and they will think or research more about what they need to do. For me, $ 500 is a lot of money, and if bitcoin price is down from $9,900 to $9,300-$9,400, that means for me. The situation now is different than in 2016, especially we are still at the pandemic, and many people are trying to survive.

I believe there is more to the Grayscale story than meets the eye. During this period where their inflows are surging, the GBTC premium over spot is also sinking like a stone. In February, that premium was over 30%. Now it's 15%. In my opinion this is less of a story about bullish institutional accumulation and more of a story about institutional arbitrage.

It sucks to be a GBTC holder right now.

Grayscale is a good news but not enough good news. It is just one company buying a ton of bitcoin but it is still one company. What would be good is a lot of companies like grayscale, generally wall street type of investment bank sort of stuff would actually be good to actually buy bitcoins. With one of them it is definitely good, it is better than having zero of them, however having just 1 versus having 100 is of course no question as well.

I do believe that there is a lot of companies who are investing into bitcoin that is not showing as clearly as grayscale, I just hope that one day they will disclose all the billions of dollars bought between those wall street companies as well. One day we are going to look at this day and think how small we were, until that day we just have to be happy with even just one company being so pro-bitcoin.

How $500 drop can be characterized at all as some kind of deep decline? This is something quite normal for four-digit number price, we are not in 2016 when such drop (in fiat value) would be truly dramatic. Why to wait next week or next day when price is back to $9500, as if that means something too much if we look at the overall picture.

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Is Grayscale not good enough news? If they buy more Bitcoin per week than new one is mined, this should cause interest of other investors. Maybe that's the case, but it all happens in the background through the OTC market. Gold is not comparable to Bitcoin in terms of short-term profits, because it has a very slow although stable growth, while investing in Bitcoin is something that can pay off in the short term with easy 100% profit.

Most analysts are spotting double top/triple top/head and shoulder formations around $10,000 levels these days but I am sure about same kind of double bottom/triple bottom/W shaped formations are going to happen around $9100 to $9500 levels which will lead to breaking up on upper range. Time has gone away along with halving hence still worry about old support ranges which are below $8500 to $8000 levels. I am seeing enough volume to hold above $9000 levels forever here after.

Due to slow economy, we are lagging with triggering news and events to pump bitcoin prices but when hedge funds see bitcoin is doing stronger around $10k levels, definitely they start bet on it. It is going to be tough competition between gold and bitcoin until recession fever gets over. Let's wait and watch who is going to be crowned as better performing alternate asset of 2020.

I think we might get trolled back to 9.5-9.8k soon instead... Could be completely wrong but it's something to consider, I've been thinking we need to break 10k once more before we go back down and drop from there just to completely kill all the hope...


I don't think 8% for a drop is very major with bitcoin, most investors probably expect it by now...

Unfortunately, the price has dropped too deep because now the price is at $9,300. I wonder if, in the next week, the price can start increase to the last high price, but if the price can not increase, hm that will be a long time to wait for the price back to the higher price. Maybe right now, many people shocked to see the bitcoin price has down deeper than what they expect, but some of them already prepared for the worst thing like this moment. The situations now give an effect to the other coins, which is followed to get down, so we need to be careful.

I was just watching Tone Vays and he seems to think its a normal adjustment and BTC remains more bullish longer term.   Its not that broken that triangle as he has drawn it and I'd say its fairly likely to go up near term before any further downward movement.   I think his estimate for most bearish price was about 7000.
   I will be quite boring and just say the most simple thing is for us to revist the 200 day average, it is rising slightly at the moment and its fair enough to say this sell doesnt make BTC especially worse off for the long term.   My aspirations for this years price are quite modest so this all fits fine though I'd like to know the bottom pricing like anyone else.

It is happening already and soon we might have to see the price touching at $9,000 or less. I don't know what makes the market drop like this but the chances of getting a dump or pump is almost the same. I can't tell which way Bitcoin supposed to go after this drop, I guess it would stay for a week or so then pump back or drop more. Either way is a good sign though since we could buy if it continues to drop.

Of course.

The more times a level gets hit it becomes weaker and it's like that in both directions. We've been hitting 10 thousand for a while now and it's not going to keep resisting forever.

Bullish expectations point towards 10 thousand this year but I can see us at least touching last year's top of 14.

I don't claim to be right all the time, but i tried to warn y'all! 



It's now hovering around the $9300 range but i suspect we will see more pain soon with a zig zag pattern downwards. It also fits in with a popular Elliott Wave theory that bitcoin is entering the final phase (Wave E). So after the final dump down to whatever price - it will rise up to ATH.

$10,000 will end up like many other strong resistances in the past, it’ll get breached 100%. We may see a dump in the near future but so what. I’m more interested in the long term price direction not short term movements.

Mines coming from the fact the other drop was massive. If people bought at 4-5k and we drop down to 7k quickly, theyll be more likely to drop their coins and sell them off. Since we went to 3.8k so fast I haven't had much faith in the price holding any level also tbh.

From mainstream social media too there's a lot of retail that are holding their coins, if we do another drop they light cut their losses and pull out... There's also a chance the stock market will crash again and it doesn't seem unlikely...

I don't think it'll be a massive drop though, it could be but I think a fall to 6.5k is realistic considering we've plateaued for some time. We can't really be stable at 6k so it could be around 5.5 instead if we go further... We looked to have dropped and risen from 9k at the point I'm writing this, dunno if this is going to move further or just go back up.
Yeah a lot of ta for traditional forex is 60-90% accurate for forex, it's probably lower with crypto just due to differing markets and the number of people looking at simple ta patterns...

I will just say a triple top showing on a stronger time frame like OP has said is a big sign that price is about to drop and that will happen because triple top is a strong candle formation to show change in trend.

That is the trick here, the chart says it "could" drop, it could also go up insanely high as well, it could go up so much that the price could be $20k, there is really no guarantee scenario here as you can see, there is just possibilities. This chart is one in a million of others, this one shows there is a triple top and that could cause a drop and I understand, that has happened before as well so it wouldn't be the first time and I think it would make sense if it happened again.

However that doesn't mean it WILL happen, it just means it MIGHT happen and that's it. That is why there is no need to panic, be ready for a drop if it happens but do not expect a drop and act accordingly, just be prepared and that is enough. I personally would love to see it drop because I want to buy some more of it.

That's the significance of the drop in March. Whereas the OP's technical analysis purely base on the chart movements, that's why I said "it's not always gonna be the case" because there are also legitimate reasons behind every price action, like the ones you have mentioned.
This chart is just another mere prediction base on market sentiments and is completely irrelevant with the next Bitcoin movement.

It's not that it should, but that it can.

I'd say $3K is improbable, but $6K would be completely typical for BTC. Just another day in the market. The historical charts are riddled with drops like that, and surely there isn't a fundamental explanation for every one. Sometimes the market just drops. Supply and demand, etc. BTC is a very thin market. It doesn't take that many coins to spark a selloff, especially if the underlying market conditions are bearish.

here is the problem, the price in Feb/Mar didn't drop because of some meaningless technical analysis or some arbitrary "resistance" failing to be broken. it dropped because the world's economy started crashing and all major markets all around the world have been crashing hard.
same with any other "major" crash, there is always a solid reason behind every one of them which has nothing to do with TA.

Of course we're following the chart, and that indeed resembles the movements from February where a very "sharp" drop happened early March. But, that's not always gonna be the case everytime, and Infact these short movements in the region of $8,000-$10,000 has been going on for almost 2 months now. This will either break the resistance and initiate a bull run, or will have significant drop. It's not something to worry about anyway, because these won't matter in the long run when Bitcoin finally hits another ATH.

to this day i still don't understand why some people keep saying things like this! why should price of something drop SIGNIFICANTLY just because it didn't go up?
i get a small drop to something like $9100 or to $8900, it makes perfect sense and it has been the reality of every market out there, also the bitcoin sideways periods have always been like this when price fails to break the resistance (or another way of looking at it: fails to break the support and go lower!) it keeps dropping and rising in small increments.
but i never understand why you claim that drop has to be so GIGANTIC?

Honestly it can go either way. Basically its consolidating against resistance and can easily break up. Someone on twitter brought up a good point about $10K being the new $6K from 2018.

Remember $6K from 2018? We kept wicking under it and always closed above it, people kept trying to jump in short and ended up being rekt when the support kept holding. Then one day, poof and off we went to $3K.

Same with $10K now except opposite, we fail to close above $10K on the weekly and whenever we are about to break $10K, tons of bulls get in try to long the break, and end up getting wicked out on the pullback. So honestly one day out of the blue we might break $10K and never go back.

If the price goes down, I hope the price can increase more than $10k first, and then the price will go down. If the price can be like that, I think we can book a nice profit before we can buy back Bitcoin at a lower price. And now, the price finally can break $9,900 again, and I wonder if the price can break $10k, which is the hard thing that the price can break for a few days ago.

The multiple top happened in a month timeframe so it's understandable. It's common that the same price wall will still remain for a short period of time. But still I don't understand why you come up a huge spike while BTC is still on track and never broke the uptrend line since the price recovery after big dump on 3K level. I believe pure TA will not gonna work on BTC. It was already proved by the future events.

A sharp fall soon might be correct. That was nice of you to use that instead of dump hehehe. However, it will certainly be followed by another pump. Tether has printed billions. Where would that go? How will it be used? Dump and pump hehehe.



Source https://coinmetrics.io/

It could, but there's still few days until the end of the week so too early to tell. Still another 20 days until the end of the month too.
The weekly candle would need to end in the red, and bearish looking, for me to follow this theory. The current candle doesn't suggest a rejection at all to me.


My thoughts exactly. A clear horizontal resistance (if you ignore the head fake or imagine it as a wick) with ascending support of higher lows. It's bullish.


Me neither.

The way it keeps hammering into $10K on the daily chart is bullish to me. Usually when S/R gets tested over and over, it eventually breaks.

I don't really buy the triple top theory either:

Does that spike at the beginning of June indicate a significant break of resistance and trend, thats what Im wondering.   The market seems very insistent that we keep bumping up against this area.
  My general feeling is further action downwards, perhaps triggered by some event but I'm not sure there is enough excuse to expect it for sure.   Head and shoulders is not something I feel that confident judging, a double top with a lower second price peak attempting would be more recognisable to me.   The last attempts to break upwards have made me uncertain as we have yet to fail the trend since March.    My last attempt to be bearish in my view was to refer to fib levels going back some years as we've been in this area many times and Ive never thought a round 10k was the pivot but the areas around it need to be snuffed out first before we can say this rally has died and will certainly break thousands downwards.

So far as a target downwards I think 7482, this was the lows from last year and it fits recent action also when we recovered from the March sell off.   8766 is the level I see we've maintained on every low since April so with so many attempts either way I want to see that break to be especially sure BTC price will be discovering lower prices for an extended duration.   Normally we are just attempting and failing to break up or down.

Draw this chart on weekly bars and try to draw a conclusion similarly from that, weekly is the golden standard by me.   The lower time frames can blip about and do anything, more noise.

Triple top and Head&shoulders do really means out high tendency of drop which is mostly effective if we do it on forex but doesnt mean that
it wont happen here on crypto yet there are lots of time that crypto market can break out any TA's out there.

Lets hope that it would break that 10k barrier this time but it seems the price is tanking below the line neither it would break or bounce down.

But neither of the case, i do still have sufficient cash for buybacks.

It'd be interesting if it turns into a massive descending rectangle and follows the same thing twice or three times 🙄.

But yeah if we dont get a volume spike soon we'll probably continue along the same way and go back down towards $6/3k levels...

It looks like bitcoin has failed on so many occasions to breach 10k that a triple top could form both monthly and weekly!



I guess it depends on how much gas is left in the tank for these bulls, it might push upwards but the technical analysis doesn't look overly positive.

If history repeats itself from Feb, we will see a sharp drop as shown in this bearish chart (see link below). If 8k fails to hold then get your cash ready for the final chance to buy in!
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/2-charts-short-term-bulls-and-bears-which-is-right-5254210