Topic: Taking +110/-110 all the time thinking it's a 50/50 chance is a wrong idea. (Read 174 times)
February 09, 2025, 11:47:11 PM
Without knowing much about the subject, I think he is right. Moreover, I think the cases where it is a pure 50/50 will be rare. If there is a favorite it will be very lopsided and if they are roughly evenly matched I'm sure someone with a good eye and experience can find the 60/40 or 55/45. Even a stats program or an AI can surely find you those closer percentages.
February 09, 2025, 11:22:27 PM
You should be really familiar with the sports and the teams if you want to bet on live bet.
When you really understand about the sports and the teams, you will know like which teams tend to comeback and which teams tend to make mistakes in the last minutes. So, if the team that like to comeback is currently behind the opponent, you should bet on them instead of the opponent.
It's risky, but experience usually not go wrong.
When you really understand about the sports and the teams, you will know like which teams tend to comeback and which teams tend to make mistakes in the last minutes. So, if the team that like to comeback is currently behind the opponent, you should bet on them instead of the opponent.
It's risky, but experience usually not go wrong.
That's true, and when you're betting live, you're only focused on a few games since you can't watch them all at once. That's even better, I think your chances of winning are higher with live betting compared to pregame bets. In live games, you can spot injuries, check shooting percentages, and track fouls. These real-time details give you a better chance to analyze and make a winning bet.
February 09, 2025, 10:23:36 AM
For me, I feel like it’s a waste of time. Based on my experience, I usually lose because I get carried away by emotions while watching the game. And sometimes, what we expect to happen just doesn’t happen.
Like in a recent basketball game I bet on, the best player of one team had 5 fouls by the end of the 3rd quarter, meaning he’d have limited minutes in the 4th. So, I quickly bet on the other team that wasn’t in foul trouble (which was also the pre-game favorite).
But in the end? I still lost.
You should be really familiar with the sports and the teams if you want to bet on live bet.Like in a recent basketball game I bet on, the best player of one team had 5 fouls by the end of the 3rd quarter, meaning he’d have limited minutes in the 4th. So, I quickly bet on the other team that wasn’t in foul trouble (which was also the pre-game favorite).
But in the end? I still lost.
When you really understand about the sports and the teams, you will know like which teams tend to comeback and which teams tend to make mistakes in the last minutes. So, if the team that like to comeback is currently behind the opponent, you should bet on them instead of the opponent.
It's risky, but experience usually not go wrong.
February 09, 2025, 10:14:15 AM
Instead, he suggests looking at moneyline odds, whether for the favorites or underdogs, to find better opportunities.
Moneyline odds are just American odds compared to European ones or the UK, also, what are you going to do in soccer with those? Cause it's definitely not 50/50, I see no reason why he would give an advice for situations that are so specific it's harder to find them than to actually avoid playing on them
You could say taking 1.9/1.9 in tennis games is a bad idea, or is betting on any game just because of the odds.You bet for the things you might think might happen, not because of the odds, you take a 1.2 with a 4.5 in an array if you're sure of the fundamentals.
Point spread is much easier to predict than choosing match winner bet because you have a chance of still win your bet if you’re team lose when you choose + spread points.
And what value do you get for that, for example in Barcelona's upcoming game, go for the spread and you end up with 1.10.
February 09, 2025, 09:58:51 AM
Before the game starts, both sides are full of hope that they will win the game. They roleplay in different ways how to defeat the opposing team. Invariably, the moment before the game starts, a positive and beautiful mindset works inside everyone. No one can say if and in which direction the game will go later, but the initial situation reveals an excellent moment.
Clearly, winning is every team's goal. But as a gambler, you're up against the betting odds. Your job is to choose the team you think will win or cover the spread. That's the tricky part, you have to decide if the offered spread is a good bet. I'm pretty confident I can pick a winner about 50% of the time, but when it comes to point spreads, that's a whole different ball game.
Point spread is much easier to predict than choosing match winner bet because you have a chance of still win your bet if you’re team lose when you choose + spread points.
On the other hand, - point spread is indeed very hard to win since even a favorite team lose or perform low that makes their score just even to the weaker team so I always preferred + spread when placing bets in handicap.
February 09, 2025, 09:22:28 AM
Before the game starts, both sides are full of hope that they will win the game. They roleplay in different ways how to defeat the opposing team. Invariably, the moment before the game starts, a positive and beautiful mindset works inside everyone. No one can say if and in which direction the game will go later, but the initial situation reveals an excellent moment.
Clearly, winning is every team's goal. But as a gambler, you're up against the betting odds. Your job is to choose the team you think will win or cover the spread. That's the tricky part, you have to decide if the offered spread is a good bet. I'm pretty confident I can pick a winner about 50% of the time, but when it comes to point spreads, that's a whole different ball game.
February 09, 2025, 08:08:56 AM
Live betting is a good option if you are able to watch the game. You may not get great odds, but you'll be able to see what team is dominating and chase a few bucks vs going in blind before the game starts. Never know what can happen before a game starts or who is having an off night.
Before the game starts, both sides are full of hope that they will win the game. They roleplay in different ways how to defeat the opposing team. Invariably, the moment before the game starts, a positive and beautiful mindset works inside everyone. No one can say if and in which direction the game will go later, but the initial situation reveals an excellent moment. 
February 09, 2025, 06:47:36 AM
Of course, sports betting is not like flipping a coin. If you flip a coin, the probability of getting tails is 50%, the probability of getting heads is also 50%. The probability of the coin landing on its edge or hanging in the air is 0%.
In sports betting, everything is different. The bookmaker initially includes its margin in the odds. It is impossible to beat the bookmaker - without insider information, the probability of your winning is less than 50 percent. This is why most sports bettors always lose in the long run.
The exception to this rule are bettors who bet on unpopular sports events about which they have insider information or a deep understanding of the specifics of organizing these sports events.
By the way, bookmakers set odds with a higher margin for such unpopular sports competitions. A bookmaker is a commercial organization that will never refuse to make a profit.
In sports betting, everything is different. The bookmaker initially includes its margin in the odds. It is impossible to beat the bookmaker - without insider information, the probability of your winning is less than 50 percent. This is why most sports bettors always lose in the long run.
The exception to this rule are bettors who bet on unpopular sports events about which they have insider information or a deep understanding of the specifics of organizing these sports events.
By the way, bookmakers set odds with a higher margin for such unpopular sports competitions. A bookmaker is a commercial organization that will never refuse to make a profit.
February 09, 2025, 01:45:59 AM
I just watched a YouTube video from a sports betting creator I follow, and he said it’s wrong to always assume a 50/50 chance in betting. He explained that treating every bet like a coin flip is just guessing instead of finding real value. Instead, he suggests looking at moneyline odds, whether for the favorites or underdogs, to find better opportunities.
What do you think based on your knowledge? Do you agree or disagree, and why?
The author of this video, in my opinion, is absolutely right. This is called a value strategy. The point of this strategy is to determine the odds better than the bookmaker. It is better than a coin flip. The probability distribution for most sports matches is far from a 50% / 50% distribution. If we take tennis, for the sake of simplicity, in which there are no draws, then most often bookmakers initially set odds of 70/30 or 20/80. Although, of course, the odds can be anything. However, there is an important point here: over time, the odds are distorted due to the uneven flow of money on both sides of the money line. What do you think based on your knowledge? Do you agree or disagree, and why?
February 08, 2025, 04:31:08 PM
...
What do you think based on your knowledge? Do you agree or disagree, and why?
What do you think based on your knowledge? Do you agree or disagree, and why?
Actually, I pretty much agree on what he says. Betting on sports is supposed to be different than gambling on a coin flip, otherwise bettors would be better just playing dices or coin flip with a 50% of winning each time the click on a button.
Wagering money on sports is about exploiting information and taking advantage on knowledge one could accumulate through time and years of being an expectator of an specific sport/discipline, it is about increasing that 50% change up to 55% or even more thanks to what one knows which others who are betting against us do not know.
That is one of the main reasons I don't advice anyone to get I to sportbetting if they have never been fan of those sports they wager money on. They won't have even a 50% change to win money (based on their experience), they will have even lower percentages of chances to get profit from their predictions than their experienced counter-parts.
February 08, 2025, 04:18:13 PM
I just watched a YouTube video from a sports betting creator I follow, and he said it’s wrong to always assume a 50/50 chance in betting. He explained that treating every bet like a coin flip is just guessing instead of finding real value. Instead, he suggests looking at moneyline odds, whether for the favorites or underdogs, to find better opportunities.
What do you think based on your knowledge? Do you agree or disagree, and why?
So what exact strategy did he suggested was suitable for the moneyline odds? Because despite how that YouTuber may have tried as much to twist about the probability of the outcome of a gambling event, let it not forget that the outcome of Sport games are usually always base on several factors, such as the club formation, players on injury and e.t.c. Hence, all these contribute alot, both including your personal analysis. Because I have seen people lose a bet of 1.01 odds, due to lack of luck, which is why luck is a basic factor for success. What do you think based on your knowledge? Do you agree or disagree, and why?
February 07, 2025, 07:46:00 AM
When it comes to picking which team will win, it’s actually very easy.. we can just check the stats and see which team is better.
However, the real challenge comes from the odds and the way sportsbooks set the lines. Since most gamblers bet on favorites, the odds are usually adjusted to favor the house. Even if we have a 60% win rate, we can still lose in the long run if we’re always getting low-value odds. So actually the toughest part is choosing the right side based on the point spread because even if your team wins the game, they might fail to cover the spread, meaning you still lose your bet.
This is just the fact. But not only this. If you noticed, some clubs that have very low probability to win will play with strong club sometimes and the club will draw or even win at times. Everybody will be very unhappy that day as they all lose. In long term, the betting sites would win money from almost all their customers. Only small number of people will make money. I do not like betting for this reason because betting is not fun, unlike gambling on casino games which are fun. I only go for one or two matches in sport and not often. However, the real challenge comes from the odds and the way sportsbooks set the lines. Since most gamblers bet on favorites, the odds are usually adjusted to favor the house. Even if we have a 60% win rate, we can still lose in the long run if we’re always getting low-value odds. So actually the toughest part is choosing the right side based on the point spread because even if your team wins the game, they might fail to cover the spread, meaning you still lose your bet.
February 07, 2025, 07:18:00 AM
I mean yeah it makes sense. Not that following it would guarantee money or better opportunities really. And I mean, it's sports betting. While there's only two results, a win or a loss, it's influenced by skill. Not by the gambler, but by the players. The gambler's skill here is to identify which of the two is the better ones.
Not that you can't just do a flip. I mean as I've said, games only have two results, fits with the 2 sides of a coin. Can just flip it and bet on whichever side lands. But then again not like some "strategizing" isn't really just coinflips. Especially in cases where teams are equal in skill
When it comes to picking which team will win, it’s actually very easy.. we can just check the stats and see which team is better.
However, the real challenge comes from the odds and the way sportsbooks set the lines. Since most gamblers bet on favorites, the odds are usually adjusted to favor the house. Even if we have a 60% win rate, we can still lose in the long run if we’re always getting low-value odds. So actually the toughest part is choosing the right side based on the point spread because even if your team wins the game, they might fail to cover the spread, meaning you still lose your bet.
February 07, 2025, 07:04:45 AM
~
I mean yeah it makes sense. Not that following it would guarantee money or better opportunities really. And I mean, it's sports betting. While there's only two results, a win or a loss, it's influenced by skill. Not by the gambler, but by the players. The gambler's skill here is to identify which of the two is the better ones. Not that you can't just do a flip. I mean as I've said, games only have two results, fits with the 2 sides of a coin. Can just flip it and bet on whichever side lands. But then again not like some "strategizing" isn't really just coinflips. Especially in cases where teams are equal in skill
February 07, 2025, 06:55:29 AM
I just watched a YouTube video from a sports betting creator I follow, and he said it’s wrong to always assume a 50/50 chance in betting. He explained that treating every bet like a coin flip is just guessing instead of finding real value. Instead, he suggests looking at moneyline odds, whether for the favorites or underdogs, to find better opportunities.
What do you think based on your knowledge? Do you agree or disagree, and why?
What do you think based on your knowledge? Do you agree or disagree, and why?
Who the hell is assuming a 50/50 chance in sports betting? There are odds in sports betting, it's pretty clear that most odds aren't 50/50.
I'm not talking about the odds but the chance of winning, usually that 1.90 or -110 is the odds for a 50/50 chance of winning.
For example, team a is -5 at (-110) and team b is +5 at (-110), the assumption is its 50/50 chance of wining, but of course it differs on the bettors interpretation of the spread as it could be seen as overvalued or undervalued.
February 07, 2025, 06:44:11 AM
Live betting is a good option if you are able to watch the game. You may not get great odds, but you'll be able to see what team is dominating and chase a few bucks vs going in blind before the game starts. Never know what can happen before a game starts or who is having an off night.
Does this strategy work for you?
For me, I feel like it’s a waste of time. Based on my experience, I usually lose because I get carried away by emotions while watching the game. And sometimes, what we expect to happen just doesn’t happen.
Like in a recent basketball game I bet on, the best player of one team had 5 fouls by the end of the 3rd quarter, meaning he’d have limited minutes in the 4th. So, I quickly bet on the other team that wasn’t in foul trouble (which was also the pre-game favorite).
But in the end? I still lost.
February 07, 2025, 06:40:29 AM
I just watched a YouTube video from a sports betting creator I follow, and he said it’s wrong to always assume a 50/50 chance in betting. He explained that treating every bet like a coin flip is just guessing instead of finding real value. Instead, he suggests looking at moneyline odds, whether for the favorites or underdogs, to find better opportunities.
What do you think based on your knowledge? Do you agree or disagree, and why?
What do you think based on your knowledge? Do you agree or disagree, and why?
Who the hell is assuming a 50/50 chance in sports betting? There are odds in sports betting, it's pretty clear that most odds aren't 50/50.
Some sports bettors are betting for fun, while other sports bettors are doing extensive research and analysis. The ones with more money are probably in the first group and wouldn't mind betting on games with ridiculous odds or doing parlay bets.
OP, maybe you should share the video or this sports bettor. I think that we are kinda missing the context here.
February 07, 2025, 06:38:46 AM
I just watched a YouTube video from a sports betting creator I follow, and he said it’s wrong to always assume a 50/50 chance in betting. He explained that treating every bet like a coin flip is just guessing instead of finding real value. Instead, he suggests looking at moneyline odds, whether for the favorites or underdogs, to find better opportunities.
What do you think based on your knowledge? Do you agree or disagree, and why?
What do you think based on your knowledge? Do you agree or disagree, and why?
He is not wrong however the 50/50 result is valid too as a general outcome of the game since there’s only 2 result on the game except on 1x2 which is win or lose only no matter what’s the odds you are taking.
He is right about his explanation since finding value on every bet can give higher chance of winning and return on our bets. There’s a house edge involved so there’s no way we can really bet on a 50/50 chance odds. Note that I’m already talking about here the chances of winning based on the different factor on the game and not the general outcome alone.
February 07, 2025, 06:31:16 AM
Live betting is a good option if you are able to watch the game. You may not get great odds, but you'll be able to see what team is dominating and chase a few bucks vs going in blind before the game starts. Never know what can happen before a game starts or who is having an off night.
February 07, 2025, 06:26:29 AM
I just watched a YouTube video from a sports betting creator I follow, and he said it’s wrong to always assume a 50/50 chance in betting. He explained that treating every bet like a coin flip is just guessing instead of finding real value. Instead, he suggests looking at moneyline odds, whether for the favorites or underdogs, to find better opportunities.
What do you think based on your knowledge? Do you agree or disagree, and why?
What do you think based on your knowledge? Do you agree or disagree, and why?
But usually though betting on ML for a favorites is not a good idea as obviously, the profits is going to be small and still there is a huge chance that you are still going to lose. Gambler loses massive $1.4 million bet on Chargers-Jaguars game.
Of course betting on the underdog is good, but that is, if the underdog will win the game and chances are, we will seldom to see them win. So in sports betting, it's really up to us on how we are going to see the game, and there is still this element of luck as well.
February 07, 2025, 06:15:36 AM
I’m guilty of this since I usually bet on the point spread or total, which typically has 1.90 odds. Sometimes, I go for the moneyline, but mostly for underdogs since the payout is better compared to betting on favorites.
I just feel like I’m losing value if I take odds lower than 1.90, since the return isn’t as appealing. But thanks for bringing this up, I might reevaluate my strategy and see if it leads to better results.
Just a side comment-- I hope you guys avoid posting about gambling just for fun or anything like that. It’s better if we stay objective and focus on meaningful discussions so this thread actually makes sense.
I just feel like I’m losing value if I take odds lower than 1.90, since the return isn’t as appealing. But thanks for bringing this up, I might reevaluate my strategy and see if it leads to better results.
Just a side comment-- I hope you guys avoid posting about gambling just for fun or anything like that. It’s better if we stay objective and focus on meaningful discussions so this thread actually makes sense.
February 07, 2025, 06:12:42 AM
Maybe you can add the odds in decimals for those that are used to reading it that way.
Gambling based on odds is generally a bad idea in my opinion, especially if you are playing sports. You should consider a lot of other factors and understand the games you are betting on.
Best strategy is to gamble for fun.
- Jay -
Gambling based on odds is generally a bad idea in my opinion, especially if you are playing sports. You should consider a lot of other factors and understand the games you are betting on.
Best strategy is to gamble for fun.
- Jay -
February 07, 2025, 06:10:58 AM
I think what online sports bookies offer as default (x1.80 - x1.85) is always a 50/50 chance but we try to increase the chances of winning or decrease it with a higher profit by using the spreads. There are options and we can take advantage of those. There are also greedy gamblers who think their team can win even if they are super underdogs so they don't even add spreads which lowers their winning chance in exchange for a satisfying win if ever it comes true.
But the super favorites at x1.20 or lower are almost guaranteed to win. I don't mean there is a 100 percent chance because there are always bad things that could happen in the game. But not many gamblers are taking this bet because of the low profits and then the mentality of losing $1 and only winning $0.20 in the process is a killer which is why they don't want it.
But the super favorites at x1.20 or lower are almost guaranteed to win. I don't mean there is a 100 percent chance because there are always bad things that could happen in the game. But not many gamblers are taking this bet because of the low profits and then the mentality of losing $1 and only winning $0.20 in the process is a killer which is why they don't want it.
February 07, 2025, 05:55:02 AM
Gambling or betting as it may implies doesn't obey any other principles except probabilities. You can flip or tossed a coin, what is the assurance that side A gonna face up or side B gonna face up and again dose this requires you to be a pro in this type of bet?
To me it's simply 'No' as anyone can tossed a coin and have side A as up or B as up; what matters is the chances of someone having any of the sides as winning. Moreover there are people who gambles for fun and may not attached any strong or serious feelings to the game rather looking at their fun moments.
To me it's simply 'No' as anyone can tossed a coin and have side A as up or B as up; what matters is the chances of someone having any of the sides as winning. Moreover there are people who gambles for fun and may not attached any strong or serious feelings to the game rather looking at their fun moments.
February 07, 2025, 05:48:59 AM
I just watched a YouTube video from a sports betting creator I follow, and he said it’s wrong to always assume a 50/50 chance in betting. He explained that treating every bet like a coin flip is just guessing instead of finding real value. Instead, he suggests looking at moneyline odds, whether for the favorites or underdogs, to find better opportunities.
What do you think based on your knowledge? Do you agree or disagree, and why?
What do you think based on your knowledge? Do you agree or disagree, and why?
There is no hypothesis to justify the fact that gambling is on two sides. You win or you lose, and the chances are 50/50. No matter how convincing the game we bet on is there are still chances that we may lose. Let us not get our hopes high and don't trust anything this YouTube is saying. He is only looking for attention.
Key notes: Don't take gambling as a means of getting income its for extra cash only.
February 07, 2025, 05:44:23 AM
I have been betting for over 11 years now. I bet most especially on football. I later come to realized that both betting and gambling should only be done for fun. They should not be done for money. This will help you to know that you should use small amount of money to bet which you can afford to lose. So if you either win or lose, you will have no financial problem.
I do not look for opportunity in betting.
I do not look for opportunity in betting.
February 07, 2025, 05:38:31 AM
I just watched a YouTube video from a sports betting creator I follow, and he said it’s wrong to always assume a 50/50 chance in betting. He explained that treating every bet like a coin flip is just guessing instead of finding real value. Instead, he suggests looking at moneyline odds, whether for the favorites or underdogs, to find better opportunities.
What do you think based on your knowledge? Do you agree or disagree, and why?
What do you think based on your knowledge? Do you agree or disagree, and why?
Jump to: