Topic: Talk of China economy collapsing in 3rd/4th Qrt 2014 reaching Fever Pitch (Read 10530 times)

i cant imagine if china collapses,but if that happened maybe there are some country owes the debt for china,but actually iam not sure if thy're collapse soon because in here i can find "made in china" everywhere

It's funny that all thing began with chinese housewives creating bitcoin's bubble then switched to alibaba's ipo and other stocks,
resulting entire stock market into dangerious bubble.   crazy housewives.

money that was lend to buy stocks in china.





tooo daAAAA MOOOOOOOOON  !

THIS IS THE BIG ONE!!!!


When they said they banning transfers to Bitcoin exchanges on January 31 they weren't joking. They're banning transfers to everything 

Because part of the value system of the West is that the value system of the East contains such intolerable evil that it must be destroyed, where West and East are universally quantified variables of the type "tribe."

At first the West wanted to "Westernize" the East, later they seek to "Easternize" the West, arrogant fools that we are.
Why cant we accept that its ok for East to be East, and West to be West.

True dat. Last year, the Chinese government released a report in which they admitted killing 49,000 people since 1947 in human rights abuses (gotta appreciate their candor at least). Then they went on to state that the US in the same period has killed 2 million people in the name of spreading democracy. So which would you prefer: "Democracy" or human rights violations?

Ya I hear that dude ^^^^^^^^

It makes me both angry and amused at the same time to hear the Syrian government blaming all of it's country tearing itself apart on 'terrorists'.  Who are they fooling? If your government is actively trying to kill half its citizenry  then it is probably not legitimate.


The sad fact is that most of America's opponents, aka 'the scary terrorists' , fall into one of these 3 categories.

1) The occasional loonie.  He accounts for maybe 1% of terrorist attacks. Okay fine, he is a terrorist. This is the rarest, most uncommon form of terrorist.

2) Terrorists made by the government that is trying to kill them.  Such as Al Qaidea.  Al Qaidea was brought to power / given power and arms by the CIA to fight the Russians. Many other terrorists cells were once in the pay of the U.S government , and now that they aren't following orders anymore, are then used as villains for PR purposes.  

3) People defending themselves or their country.  Okay so you can't blow some one up with a home made bomb.  But you can bomb a country with an air force, rape their women, kill their kids by the dozens, just in order to expand your fruit selling business? One of 1000 examples   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1954_Guatemalan_coup_d'état

And then the real kicker:  If the founding fathers of the United States were alive today they would likely be considered 'terrorists' by today's government, just for the ideals they had. That about sums it up.

edit: also thought I'd add, just about the only people the NSA doesn't spy are .... wait for it.... terrorists.  That's right.  Terrorists actually use the available tools to get around being tracked. The NSA spies on everyone else BESIDES the terrorists. And if you don't like them spying on you -- you are a-- you guessed -- you are a terrorist. Because you won't want to be spied on if you didn't have anything to hide, right ?   

"Fiat waging war on Bitcoin is like Dubya waging war on Terrorism.  I don't believe it is possible to fight something that has no identity, something that is essentially an ideology."

The war on Terrorism (as with every other "war on ") was chosen precisely because it would never have to end. After the end of the cold war, the military/industrial complex has been desperately searching for something to replace it so they're hoping to extend the middle east conflict until a new cold war with china can properly begin. The Chinese government is just as eager to play along. Orwell nailed it in 1984.

Welcome to the new, improved 1984, America 2013.

Ubiquitous surveillance: check.

Ubiquitous propaganda extolling the state and central bank: check

Perpetual fear-mongering: check

Perpetual war against an unseen enemy who can never be defeated: check

Police state with essentially unlimited powers to suppress "enemies of the state": check

Continual revision of history to support the current party line: check.

I would like to think the world has moved on a little from WW1 and WW2.  Where we used to have the gold standard, we now have Bitcoin, which is Gold 2.0 except it is divisible and thus solves the liquidity issues, whilst removing the inflation (and corruption) problems.

War is an ancient practice and IMHO that is where it belongs, along with slavery, pedophilia (Rome) and colonialism.  I am hopeful of development.  

Fiat waging war on Bitcoin is like Dubya waging war on Terrorism.  I don't believe it is possible to fight something that has no identity, something that is essentially an ideology.  Of course, Bitcoin is not terrorism, although I agree banks might feel terrorised.  In my view, Bitcoin is as an inevitable paradigm shift for humans on the road of progress.  Trying to stop Bitcoin is like trying to stop a wave across a very long beach.

Thaaanos, I see we are disagreeing again.  I suppose things are getting back to normal!

I would at first suggest that we could see a rise of the chinese middle class, and increased domestic consumption to be the next engine of China. But in the current global situation with middle class crushed all over in "Democracies", it will be transcendant for the CPC to allow that to happen. So yes war is still on the table, is the global situation right now any different from pre WWI or pre WWII? maybe the fact that everyone has nukes nowdays may be a show stopper, but I don't take sanity for granted nowdays.

And comeon it's ancient practice, it's not sought to stimulate demand. When societies reach an impasse conflict is inevitable
because it has interesting properties: it exposes real value, and where true power lies. It's a darwinian proccess of Visions/Ideas and the Will behind them.
In that light don't expect FIATs to make it easy for Bitcoin or any other crypto.

I just read the news "Fear Is Mounting On Wall Street That The Fed Will ‘Fall Behind The Curve’ Like In 1994" http://www.businessinsider.in/Fear-Is-Mounting-On-Wall-Street-That-The-Fed-Will-Fall-Behind-The-Curve/articleshow/29129599.cms

I find the typical Keynesian response of war (or alien invasion per Krugman) to stimulate demand, frankly disturbing.  It represents everything wrong about our current economic paradigm and why an alternative is required.  Is Bitcoin that alternative?  Anything would be better than debt based fiat, IMHO.

"What about the massive public debt? Let's break it down: Right now, the debt is hovering around the same as US GDP. Roughly 2/3 to 3.5/5 of that is owed by US government to AMERICAN PEOPLE."

>> GDP is irrelevant. Unsold houses and cars and government spending which is largely what the GDP is comprised of don't make for a healthy economy. Also you got it the wrong way round. The American people owe the debt to the American government and its creditors. US tax income is around $2.6T. All of that and much more is spent on the military and the rest of the government programs and then the US has to borrow money from the likes of China and iran just to make the interest payments on the debt. The taxpayer and their grandchildren are on the hook for every dollar printed. US banks have one quadrillion of worthless derivatives on their books that can never be repaid but these welfare zombies are kept alive by the Fed's tapering which again the US taxpayer is on the hook for. I think you've been learning economics from either Krugman or Wikipedia.

War? that always seem to get things straight.

I believe we finally agree on something Thaaanos. Not sure how US and Europe can support China. Pollution is chronic, inequality epic, debt growth in 2013 at 49% of GDP. I can't see how China can rebalance without slowing significantly. Even if net exports pick up, it can't help much due to 50% of Chinese GDP in fixed asset formation. Europe can't help anyway as they are still deleveraging. US has Congress to deal with plus Detroit's bankruptcy, not to mention Fed taper pushing interest rates up. Interesting days ahead.

If China collapses the world is FUBAR. US and Europe will bend to support it.
Else they will see shortage of products and unsustainable price rises. Not to mention Europe/Germany much needed exports
If it happens we are going to witness gold flows to reverse and gold prices going down. Hopefully oil prices will go down too

All in all Bitcoin hoarders wet dream, while the rest of the world crash and burn.

Lloydie I cant even disagree for arguments sake, and you know how I like to disagree with you

Is it possible that US will put restrictions to businesses just like China and that will make bitcoin price to go down. There is a lot of talk about this these days.

You make money in 2008? Don't believe it. Where have you traveled to since 2008? You think you out travelled me in five years? Don't believe that either.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Too bad. You see, some people were smart enough to make some good money when blood was on the streets during 2008.

Take note for future. Trying to get smart with people is a good way of letting them know exactly where your 'educational' levels stands.

The little know-it-alls are pretty damn amusing these days. How easy are you kid/

No way you can afford to travel with your educational level. The only way is Uncle Sam. The way you talk, tells me you haven't entered college. You can read and your spelling is okay. Obviously on the wrong side of the tracks. Hate for China implies some kind of indoctrination. Otherwise just really irrational. The fact that you dabble in moon coin and doge coin indicates no understanding of the bitcoin protocol. Or possibly you understand but you just want to make a fast buck.

Gimp, gimp. What are you, 12 now? lol

Go study some more instead of trying to back pedal with excuses when you write checks your mouth can't cash in infront of other people.

'uneducated' 'military' 'never been part of society' haha making all the wrong guesses.

You really need to check yourself before going on about other people as if you got any ideas kid.

You are or were in the military. You're quite bright but really uneducated. You spend a lot of time on the Internet reading shit and believing it. Go on deny you haven't been in the military. Do it gimp.

LOL tell that to any viet or cambodian. Let's see if your legs can run as fast as your mouth

Tell you what, learn some fuckin anthropology before mouthing off about what you 'think' you know. Human migration patterns branched out once out of africa, one of the branches going through middle east while splitting in two and the southern branch eventually reaching south east asia before merging with the northern branch to create that mongrel group you call 'chinese'.

You got no idea what the hell you are mouthing off about. Go back and pay attention in class or somethin.


You are getting real sad now, chino boy/

Edit: LOL you are good at parroting shallow and obvious guesses. You might want to broaden your horizons a bit more before going on like a 15 year old jr.high kid

'Bigotry' lol this bitch...now it's just sad, sad.

I suspect you are in the military or was in the military, which is why you travelled and lived in many places but was never part of society. You carried your bigotry with you wherever you went and never learnt a fucking thing. Incredible! I must be close? Go on you can admit it. 

Well, if you lived in all those places then why do you come across like an ignorant country hick? That's just plain sad. China makes everything. Anyone can see that. South East Asia is just greater China. Who do you think works in those factories? The descendants of Chinese. Anyway, this is just getting irrational. I don't know why you hate China but they are royally screwing up their environment and they will correct at some point. Yes, you can celebrate coz you're that kind of person. Go for it looney gimp!    

See, bitch is what we call kids like you that squeal when they should keep their lips tucked in

LOL your guesses keep getting funnier. This is what happens when you rattle a monkey's cage, espcially the one that doesn't know as much as they think they do.

I think I lived in more places around the globe then you ever truly will, but keep trying to convince people you are a real 'global citizen' and 'knowledgeable' about world's affairs. You reek of typical shallow ignorance who thinks they have seen the world and thinks they can teach someone about them


Who needs china anyway, when latin america or south east asia can be manufacturing bases?

I'm starting to think they released you from prison early. No doubt the word bitch means something to you. Perhaps that is what you called your mother or maybe your sister, or maybe that's what they called you. Whatever it is, you need therapy. Hopefully, somewhere far away from other humans. Good luck with all that.

When you get out I hope you will come to realise that trade is good for everyone. There is no need to be afraid of people that look different. They can cook fried rice. Try some. Get a passport. Visit another country. You sound like you live on a farm where someone taught you "respect" "punishment" and how to be a "bitch".

The world is not a scary place. No one is invading Murica. Everyone is already there! Just like Britain. You need to visit a big city. Get used to the running water. People generally get along now.

You should have quit when you made the first mistake boi

'Big Macs and shakes' LOL keep going bitch. Kid can't take a hint.

China needs the world more than world needs a bunch of thin skin children trying to play at the big game. What's the use of cheap labor and 'economic engine' when it was all ultimately dependent on foreign investments, know-how, and your cheap slave labor that is now evaporating because no one want to work in slave wage level anymore?

Not that a pampered kid would know anything about that

Weak shit. What does that look like every morning? Tell us. Must be your diet of Big Macs and shakes. I think it may have affected your brain function also. China going into recession is going to rock your world. The only thing you will be pushing through is weak shit then you can clean up the mess.

Haha now that's some weak shit. Keep getting mouthy and see where it got you sad little bitch/

On topic, chinese economy crashing should not have too much impact on the world as it does on the chinese. Another recession or even a mild depression will not necessarily be a bad thing - it will give us a good opportunity to clean up some mess and push through measures.

Bitch? Yeah bring it on bro.  
China sucking western cock is like the Brits licking arse.  Lol.
You're just one sad fact of life.

As opposed to china sucking western cock and someone like you benefiting from that?

LOL what a fool. Still trying to convince himself I am a 'redneck'. Maybe someone's calling you out on that little punk bull shit and you just don't have the ears to listen. 'coz'? Haha what are you, 15?

Little bitch/

Okay. Whatever dude. I'm sure words like "lesson" "disrespect" "punishment" has meaning in your world. Most probably coz you're a gimp. 

For the rest of us, we wear clothes, shoes, underpants all made in China. I recall recently PM Cameron practically going to China to beg for trade and investment. Such effective task masters the Brits. Many British lessons. Wow.

After I inferred your attitude directly from your words and stated the obvious, you got mouthy and tried to jump to conclusions about who I am

Yes, I think the typical ignorance and childish shallow hypocrisy of those who think they know something are obvious to anyone

China demanded unequal trade, much like today, and was dominated and subjugated for its ignorance. They were not 'selling tea' - they were also barring numerous goods from other nations to protect their merchants while interfering with direct government force on anything that would bring foreigners serious profit.

They were taught a lesson for that disrespect. A well deserved punishment for someone who was just asking for it.

Interesting to see how they never learned and are repeating the same mistake today.

Didn't the Brits fuck most of Africa as well? Then they fucked over the Muricans or at least tried to but lost. The Brits also tried to fuck over the Maoris in NZ but they fucked the Brits back just as hard.

As I said, the Brits were just major fuckers. Is there anyone the Brits did not fuck with? Anyone at all?!? 

Ignorant fool? Coming from you - thanks. 

LOL this bitch.

Guessing ethnicities over the internet, how cute. You even think to make petulant assumptions about which one I am supposed to be

Tell me again how I am supposed to be a redneck

Definitely proved my point about you being an ignorant fool who thinks having a mouth means having valued opinions.

Orientalist? Wow... Good one buddy.  Keep it up, show us how red your neck really is.

BTW, the Brits were selling opium to China for gold and silver which the Chinese earned by selling tea. Then the Brits fucked over the Indians too. Let's not forget Malaysia and Singapore as well. Oh yeah, and the Aborigines in Australia. The Brits fucked them over to.

All I can say is the Brits were just a bunch of fuckers. 

What ignorance. Typical orientalist who thinks grass is greener on the other side.

China has been invading and trying to subjugate its neighbors since the beginning of its history. No wonder the mongols and viets are pissed to this day. There's a reason why Genghis Khan hated the han chinese on a personal level.

Don't even try to mention the turkish people of uyghr ancestry, their land, and Tibet. Those existed before chinese civilization even came into being. 'May have invaded'? What an obvious lie. 

They even try to whitewash history by not so subtly changing the wikipedia article title into "Incorporation of Tibet". It was originally Invasion of Tibet.

What about korea, always with those chinese trying to make it into a tributary state.

China always regarded the japs as 'those island monkies' and 'uncivilized miscreants'. Well, they were rightfully taught a lesson about that during WW2.

During the first serious contact with the British Empire, chinese emperor displayed characteristic ignorance and actually demanded the ambassador kowtow. Brits fucked them good for showing such disrespect.

'Superiority Complex'? The fuck you on about? Your tone is full of ignorant biases and you actually think to tell others what they are thinking, while lying about your own attitude which isn't foolin anyone.

'China never invaded anyone'. LOL you can't make this shit up. China was rightfully taught many lessons about disrespecting its neighbors. Too bad they never learned from them.

You should learn too, before you start writing checks your mouth can't cash in. You obviously don't have what it takes to do some honest self assessment.

You're right about the Germans.  I added them postscript.  Russia was actually only invading to build a buffer between it and Germany. Nowadays Russia is more interested in selling oil and gas than to invade.

One potential problem area is Southern Europe.  Won't take much to push Greece, Portugal, Spain or Italy into a Euro exit.

Oh... I guess you must have just stopped reading there...

If you read the next line you will find my conclusion. When I said "It's just not going to happen..." I was referring to an invasion event in general. Not the outlook of success of such an event if it were to happen. I suppose I could have rephrased that last sentence to make it more clear.

The cost-risk-benefit ratio is just too low.

I don't think Europeans even feel like invading anyone any more. When was the last time a western European invaded anyone? WWII? I think you forgot to put "Germany" on that list of invading European countries - sure, they didn't do much in Africa or South American but they did a right old job in Europe Russia come to think of it as well.

Agree.  China never invaded anyone.  It was the Brits, Portuguese, Dutch, Spanish that did all the invading.  Plus Japan in WW2.  Ok, China may have invaded Tibet but that's about it.

China wants to sell you stuff so they can buy oil and iron ore to build empty apartments and feel rich.  The Indians want to work in your airports and IT companies.  No one is doing any invading as long as the Europeans back off on their superiority mindset and colonial attitudes.  If the Germans don't try to wipe out the Russians again, everything will be fine.

Actually, the last major war was the Muricans in the Middle East.  

err ... this for start:

"The American Military is nothing compared to the strength of the American people when it comes to the thought of any type of homeland invasion... I wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of that force.

China knows it, the world knows it... You can't take over America by force"

and this:

"WWWIII, China comes to collect their debt!"

Who's going on about an invasion of America? I don't see anybody worried about that... I'm not too worried about an invasion from space either.

I'm not so proud of my nation at the moment. I spent the majority of my life being proud. But the last few years have really had me questioning where this nation is headed... I'm proud of what we were and I hope we can get back there some day.

I am to please

Have you traveled in Asia? Not trolling you, genuinely interested if you have real knowledge of Asia and how it has genuinely developed in the last 30 years.

Why are people going on about an invasion of America? Are you guys that paranoid? An invasion from space is more likely

I don't even remember the last time I turned on the TV.

Also, your reflexive ignorance is amusing at best

I guess you watch FOX news ....

That's one of the great traps - they THINK they can take over America 'by mind' LOL

As if no one's aware of what they are trying to do.


Also, WE are the ones that will be collecting debts. America is favoring a certain degree of stability and peace so as to avoid another world war that would severely upset the world and cause needless casualties (better to nip it all in the bud like saddam hussein and gaddaffi). That means America understands it must make a degree of economic concession to prop up some economies so that such moderate degree of prosperity will enable positive growth and environment.

The day America decides it had enough (it just raised a brow last time with forcing the chinese to revalue their currency by printing US dollars), is the day many nations will find out the actual deficiencies in their supposedly 'strong' economies and 'people'.

That is, unless we like you. Like the Europeans (no matter how much you bitch at us, you are still more or less our cousins)

By the way, the so-called 'BS' about being a proud member of a nation is some severely delusional shit. Everyone's proud of their nation and heritage. So are Americans.

Deal wit it  

Lol

Why position troops on the coast when we've already given them thousands of acres everywhere across the USA? They even have "economic zones" where they pay no taxes and operate under the rule of Chinese law. Similar to Native American reservations except owned by China...

The American Military is nothing compared to the strength of the American people when it comes to the thought of any type of homeland invasion... I wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of that force.

China knows it, the world knows it... You can't take over America by force until you've taken over America by mind... Unless you can convince Americans not to fight you can't win in conventional warfare. It's just not going to happen...

P.S

This isn't one of those "America the proud" BS posts. America pretty much sucks right now but certain things like an invasion would tend to bring Americans to a flash boil...

I would like to notify you dooms day fools about a simple little fact: For every dollar America owes to foreigners, foreigners owe 0.89 dollars back. What, you thought America doesn't lend money and invest? Or maybe you think geopolitical finances work the same as personal finances and you can't lend money when you are borrowing?

I think many people are grossly childish and misinformed about what a national debt means. Especially the chinese who bitch about how much US owes them money - because they probably owe more to US if you count in the countless IP and criminal level espionage committed by chinese industrial spies against US and its allies. Most people never even had a slightest inkling that economies and finances of that scale operate very differently from petty personal money problems.


Here's the deal: For every dollar it owes, America also lends 0.89 dollars to the world. Since the interest rates paid by America is one of the lowest in the world, and since other nations issue higher interest to attract American investment (matter of relative stability, etc), that means America actually MAKES money.

What about the massive public debt? Let's break it down: Right now, the debt is hovering around the same as US GDP. Roughly 2/3 to 3.5/5 of that is owed by US government to AMERICAN PEOPLE.

That's right. We owe 66 to 70% of our government debt to ourselves.

What about those crazy 'foreign' debts? They account for 33% to 30% of our entire government debt. China holds little over 1 trillion USD of that money, which accounts for 20% of foreign debt, but actually less than 9% of the entire US government debt. Out of around 17 trillion dollars, we don't owe the chinese 16 trillion. Not 12 trillion. Not 5 or 4 trillion. 1 trillion.


Also, what about the chinese debts? I know personally that many chinese engage in many off-the-books loans and financial activities that many people who are used to filing out income tax returns don't have a clue about. In that world, the 'norm' is not what is official - rather, doing things officially is something of an exception. Many things are done informally and without much public profile. This 'shadow' economy is actually considered a norm to the point where going to file taxes and insisting on public oversight is thought of as a naive joke - not street smart enough. These are not good enough to prop up an economy.  Its empty and pathetically over emphasized housing disaster makes US subprime mortgage crisis look benign.



More over, the chinese economy is too dependent upon their manufacturing sector. They can't grant middle-income level jobs to half of their working class citizens - their social structure requires a degree of outright discrimination between wealth classes, the kind of separation and discrimination that makes apartheid look tame in comparison. They are running out of resources to fuel those manufacturing jobs - which is why they are so hungry for african resources.


A chinese leader once said their greatest dread was 'trying to keep up at least 5% GDP growth a year'. What does this mean about china's supposedly 'great' GDP growth? There's lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics. The old joke about two idiots making a bet about eating a bucket of shit and ending up 'increasing their gdp by two fold' because they bet against each other twice starts making more sense in this regard.

Does that seem incredulous? I would say it's realistic. More realistic than chinese would care to admit.

I believe that objective and realistic view is necessary here. Chinese economy is standing on shaky grounds that is more dependent on the world than world is dependent on the chinese. Already, US manufacturing is moving back to US, or otherwise leaving china for places that manufacture (note I said 'manufacture', not make) just as well and for cheaper prices than the chinese - south east asia, latin america comes to mind. They are just as hard working if not even more so, disregarding all that ignorant bitching from the chinese  and asians in general about how they think they are the hardest working people around (they make a show of it - other people are much more capable). In fact, the majority of so-called 'asian miracles' primarily owe their source of success to western markets and the need for US to shore up a distracting counter towards its traditional primary adversary, the USSR. All those asian nations only really took off after direct and indirect assistance by US as a useful tool against communist expansion (japan, taiwan), or through series of economic benefits offered by US government in terms of trade and market offers (korea, china).



TLDR; be objective, and turn off the 'china strong' bitchfest. Strong nations are not forced to revalue their currency when another simply prints more out and lets you take the hit for 15% inflation on your food stuff.

I'd say it's clear who holds the better hand.

WWWIII, China comes to collect their debt!

Move the civilians to the mountains now and position the troops on the coast, stat!

Yeah, the bitcoin price has really crashed since your posted that

Looks like the PBOC just injected 250B rmb into their banking system.

Before the 90's most people in China had no access to household credit or even credit cards.  In such an environment, it makes sense to save. Nowadays, people are getting more access to credit.  Therefore it makes sense to take out a huge loan to buy an apartment as a form of forced savings and as an investment.

Saving money in the current environment is bad for the ordinary person as their savings is being diluted by rampant inflation.  Therefore, Chinese people invest in property and they buy trust products (which turn into company loans on the other side of the ledger) and they do lending schemes etc...

Even though people are saving money in China, you will find that more and more Chinese people are taking out huge loans to buy apartments nowadays.  

So, it is not true that China is a great nation of savers.  Overall, their credit growth in 2013, was the highest of any nation on the planet, at 49% of GDP per Fitch adjusted Total Social Financing figures.

The motivations of the Chinese are exactly the same as the West, only the economic model is different.  

Id have to agree the West is every bit as calculating. in this way, its all a big game of chess and beggar thy neighbour.

But you are contradicting yourself - 'they aren't historically a nation of savers. they are savers because'. Asian countries especially have traditionally been savers not because they have no access to credit but because they have never trusted their rulers and / or have been subject to invasions over the centuries etc.

As a recent example, pillaging Asia pre and during WW2 netted Japan untold wealth which they shipped back to the Home islands [don't believe the 'they were broke after ww2 rubbish]. This was multi generational wealth handed down over the centuries. Once their supply routes were blocked in 1944 they buried it underground - thousands and thousands of tons of gold, jewels etc, which was eventually dug up by OSS/CIA & Marcos throughout the Phillipines aka Yamashita's treasure. Getting a bit sidetracked but the billions of dollars it represented back then has been used for nefarious geo political purposes until this day. 


Also agree the potential bomb gets bigger and bigger as time rolls on.

Newbie with 2 activity reporting this?  I call FUD. Driver side is undamaged.  Plus picture of CEO is Bobby Lee not Huobi CEO. Very suspicious.

This would have a great impact on Bitcoin Price.

Huobi's CEO found dead in car crash.

Source: I Love Btc Hot News
http://www.ilovebtchotnews.com/2014/01/21/thus-li-lin-the-ceo-of-huobi-found-dead-in-car-crash/

China has some extreme problems at the moment, all of which will contribute to a collapse, and when that happens the rest of the world's shakey economy will go with it in a cascade of debt defaults.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-19/bank-america-actively-preparing-chinese-january-31-trust-default

This above could start a contagion that will start spreading.

China isn't the only country that could collapse at any moment, Japan is facing the same fate along with the EU, and the US.

I think Bitcoin may reach fever pitch when everyone bails out of the fiat economy, because Bitcoin will be the only place to go.

The Chinese are not stupid but the west is every bit as calculating. The Chinese economic structure is heavily top down and is prone to corruption and flaws in economic strategy.

There is now the problem of social injustice in addition to unemployment. The rich are too rich and the poor cant even see the sun anymore. Literally.

Chinese people are not historically a nation of savers. They are savers because people had no access to credit until recently. Moreover, credit growth in China is the highest of any nation on the planet right now at 49% of GDP according to Fitch. Most of the debt is corporate and local government.

The shadow banking sector is very well regulated in that every trust issuer must be registered. The problem is that investors have never suffered losses and they invest without fear of loss. This is because they expect banks to make good on trust products or that the central government will bailout local governments. It is a risk pricing problem not a regulation problem.

As the Chinese government adds liquidity each time there is a problem, they are building a bigger, and bigger, and bigger economic bomb for themselves. All the bad loans are now stored within the financial system just ready for a "Lehman" type spark.

China's economy in 2013 is as follows: 50% fixed asset formation, 50% consumption.

Half the economy is involved with building things and it has a massive property bubble which the government is happy to maintain with more and more credit. The rich are super rich and the poor are dirt poor. Very unequal.

In 2013, the construction part grew at a rate of 19.3% fuelled by more credit.  Consumption grew a little bit.

The construction bit is so big now that the steel, cement, glass and related industries make zero profits due to chronic overcapacity, as they kept building during the GFC to anticipate a global economic recovery.  The global recovery never happened. Now these companies carry massive debt burdens.

If China cuts credit, these industries will collapse and cause unemployment to rise. Consumption will also fall as unemployment rises. If China does not cut credit, it will worsen the overcapacity problem and choke its population to death with pollution.

Beijing's pm2.5 measure is over 600 when the safe level recommended by the World Health Organisation is 45.

China will run aground at some point due to massive social inequalities and horrendous pollution.

America owes all its debts in US dollars which it can print more of at anytime. The really dumb thing is why China and Japan would send real goods in exchange for US dollars. The US has long controlled oil, which makes US dollars valuable. China is trying to diversify by buying oil and gas elsewhere, plus establishing direct RMB swaps with 21 countries.

The days of US dollar dominance are numbered. So the US will always be able to pay its debts. But going forward China will try to accumulate less US dollars.

For me, the Chinese aren't stupid. They seem a lot more calculated than the West. Still, they have a few other problems

1) its about jobs - as long as the people can put food on the table the risk of rebellion is kept in check but as US/EUR economies shrink, demand is muted (see large infrastructure projects as response to this)

2) historically a nation of savers. transforming to a consumer society will be difficult in the face of a few thousand years of habit.

3) China have had a few large spikes in the o/night rate in the last year but every time the central bank has provided liquidity eventually. It reads like shadow banking system is unregulated and very wild west like.


I wonder what the Lehmann moment could be?

my2c.

The housing Bubble is one of the primary concerns within the Chinese Economy and the size of China in comparison to Greece or Dubai is humongous..What this will bring if it comes to pass is the collapse of the Global Economy as we know it because China is holding most of the US debt / Gvt Bonds so then US dollar will go down the tubes affecting everything else. Greece will look like a fairy tale. Let's hope the Chinese invest plenty in BTC so they can rebuild their economy in a sound and solid way. I am sure the Chinese Govt is monitoring the Financial sector closely because it knows it's survival is based on a sound Economy otherwise there will be revolutions and revolts like the World has never seen, especially in the Countryside as they will be deeply afflicted. I hope this does not come to pass and they can find a way to integrate digital currencies into their economic infrastructure.

I was under the impression their currency was artificially deflated via govt monetary policy

Agreed - I certainly can't see the Chinese economy "collapsing" - rather, its (till now) rapid rate of growth will decline. The west can't afford quite so much of that which it has been previously importing from China. The Chinese knew/had forecast this themselves and are trying to turn their economy around to a more home consumer demand driven type of setup. This combined with their growing stature and dominance in the global oil and gas market  ( and the US being up to its neck in debt to China ??) seem sure to avert any sort of economic "collapse".

Just my tuppeneth (2 pence worth for all none UK dwellers of this forum)

Well, because of the nature of international trade and commerce, when I large nation has rough economic trouble, it tends to effect other nations as well. Same thing happened in the 1930's because countries tend to rely on each other for sources of labor, raw materials, production, and so on. Although the growth of radical political factions and movements didn't really help during those times.

Also as a side note, I think many people might be a bit misinformed on what debt actually means for a country, it's not really a bad thing.

If China collapses, the US still owes the debts to China. The US is obligated to protect both Japan and the Philippines so things could get interesting if China makes moves on either of those territories. In the event of war, the US could decline to pay its debts. But America is so broke, it would have to borrow money from China to intervene.

It goes both way, either country collapses and it impacts the whole world.

But if China collapses, what happens to the US? Isn't most US debt owned by China???

Another interesting rumor is that china will soon announce that it has the second biggest store of gold in the world, overtaking Germany (who can't even collect their gold from the fed anyway). Plus it is very likely that in order to distract chinese citizens' attention away from the economy, the government will pull off the standard text book strategy of declaring war on one or more countries. It is certainly moving in that direction with Japan and the Philippines right now.

That's a norm for just started malls. In Russia they also are building huge malls in places where it seems no one would visit them (ie car only access). But still within few months it's full of people.

If true, this won't be a positive for China either:

Mega Default in China at end of January. 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/01/19/mega-default-in-china-scheduled-for-january-31/

There is a bubble in china.. however if they let their currency expand like it naturally should and if they didn't try to centrally "plan" everything.. these things woul naturally take care of themselves more..  However since this is not happening i would agree that we will see a tremendous slowdown in the china economy..

Here is some proof of a so called failed "Planned Economy"

Chris Mayer Visits Creepy Empty Mall in China
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-uh6nx-m5E

the gov. can't do a good job at planning crap when it comes to the markets it would seem, however it is somewhat entertaining to watch.. although "not" entertaining to see all of the money that is wasted...

I agree that china has a lot of long term (and some short term) problems.  It's debatable how many China can fix and if China will have a hard fall or a soft fall but it's a topic many people discuss all the time.  I wouldn't expect the economy to collapse in 2014 though.  China's economy is still growing at a nice enough rate that even with the problems it's facing if I had to make a guess I wouldn't expect a collapse for another 20-50 years , these things typically take time.  For example, the 2008 crash in America was decades in the making.


I would add a couple more things to the list of China's long or short term problems.....

People with money/education fleeing China. I've seen this personally with friends and family in China. It's even more true if they have children.

Poor education system.  I won't get into all the details but depending on where you are born in China it really messes up your odds of going to a good university.  In china it's based on where you were born..... even if you spent the majority of your life in a city like beijing, own property there, own a company, pay taxes, etc etc  if you weren't actually born in beijing then you aren't allowed to go to the top schools (unless you bribe the right people of course).  I know quite a few people who go to highschool/college abroad instead of china because of this  (again it's an example of people with money leaving).

An economy too heavily based on export instead of consumer spending , while exporting companies/industries are currently starting to leave china as wages go up, pollution increases, and dealing with the government is a pain.  Alot of companies have found even cheaper worker wages to exploit in other countries now.

These are in addition to things already shown in the picture, which are accurate things.

Where did you get the image?

For many countries now, it is a race to the bottom - trying to see who can devalue their currency the fastest by printing money out of thin air that is backed by less than nothing.

Ever since the dawn of civilization wise men have prepared for tough times while the sheeple go about their days believing things will always be the same.

I recently read a report about Chinese millionaires leaving the country, and it's increasing at a rapid rate. I can't find the link right now, but I wonder if the fear of a massive sell off before January 31 is overblown.. I don't think the rich Chinese that know about bitcoin are going to be in a hurry to get their yuan back. Rather, I expect them to slowly convert their BTC to USD/EUR over time and move them abroad.

yeah especially the housing and hidden debt part...they have built whole towns/sky scrapers that are empty and there is tons of  bad local government/private banking debt....plus most of the people are still quite poor...it would only take a small revolution...maybe a push by pro-democracy academics and pissed off peasants

could this be the catalyst that propels btc to $2000+???

1. China implodes
2. Euro Crisis pt 3

Truth. Theft/pirating/copying of technology is a tremendous benefit for them. The rest will lead to collapse of China though.

i don't know why theft of IP is there...that must be a benefit if anything...

This will make Crypto's stocks explode in price.

China will try to print themselves out of trouble just like every country has tried to do.

What we are seeing here is the entire global credit bubble manifesting itself in China's real estate market.

House prices are at 50 times yearly earnings.