Topic: Target Price Methodology (Read 479 times)

There's a lot of good advices here, not just about investments but also about personal things you just need to explore this forum.
Anyway, target price should be based on your own contentment because we can't tell you to take profit already if you are not happy with that money yet, it will always depend on you but its better not to be greedy. There are some cases that many regrets on selling early even if its already their target price, I believe they still can't control their emotion and this should be improve as well.

The forum helps a lot this way. It seems to me that some important news is not only discussed here in the first place, but also anticipated in advance. It is very difficult to follow all the updates by yourself. However, at the forum you not only immediately see the news, but also the reaction to it and the analysis of how it can affect the market as a whole. This is one of the biggest reasons why I love bitcointalk.

For me, the target price will depend on what kind of trader we are. If we are a daily trader, it doesn't need to set up a very high target price to take profits. I commonly will use a certain timeframe, from 4h or others depending on how we set the indicator.

However, if we are a slow starter in the spot market moreover, we can also determine that it is for the very short term in daily or some days, for a short middle term or for holding. I will decide it based on the prospect of the coins or tokens that we are now holding. I will also think about the probabilities of the coins or tokens in several months later, if they are really worthy of even only hype tokens. If they are worthya dn top coins, maybe I need more tha 30% increases for taking profits.And I need to wait also for passing ATH only for the very top coins

one way to keep tabs if you are holding specific coins is to subscribe the social media channels of a given coin. because most of the time, there are discussions that are not being discussed on ANN threads or their blogs or their site. as it is now easy to post small updates via soc media channels like telegram or twitter, some of these devs will post something on these channels. now, if you feel they are being silent and hard to communicate with. maybe, start thinking of getting out while you are still in positive profit. because if they are not showing activity or any enthusiasm to their community, something is wrong with it. you need to get ahead of things, otherwise, they will possibly leave their holders hanging.

Price can go sideways because of different reasons and to know these reasons it's important to stay updated either by watching the news or by visiting the forum because people also talk here about the latest happening in cryptocurrencies which can affect their price. There's actually a term for that or when you scout information outside, I think it was called fundamental analysis.

It's beneficial if you can include that on one of your trading/investing strategies. Taking an action immediately can also secure the predictions that you just committed because there is no way that it will be reverted once you already sold or bought your coins.

I think everybody and myself fall into the classification of speculating, but instead than speculating without reason, it's vastly improved to figure with our own reasons. This is great however, it will work like stop misfortune and as a matter of fact it will be a stop misfortune and benefit check for you.

I am pretty sure that people who use leverage do not do it for just 2x that frequently, and even if they do, they are not the ones at risk. People who do 10x at least or even more are the people who make the real risks, they are taking those risks because they could make a lot more in profit as well. Your 100 bucks could turn into 1000 bucks very easily, all depending on the right moment and right movement.

This is why they are taking those risks, sure it is not easy and sure you could lose it all but think about it like gambling, people spend tens of billions of dollars on gambling every year, and leverage is not really that different from it.

The reason people should be panic is because they use high margin, I can still consider 2x margin for bitcoin to be good but 1x is the best to have a safer trading strategy, also especially for altcoins which are most volatile. Recently I do not trade all because the market did not hit my target which are $32000 dip then I will open a long position, or $42000 increase to open a short position. People have to be very careful of the price they want to open a position.

The market is more bearish than bulllsih like I have said, the $40000 support is now the resistance price, very possible the price of bitcoin may increase again but in a way the increase will not be much and lesser than the dip. If you are losing, likely you may like to turn it into holding especially if you use 1x as you open long position, your money will never be liquidated, the price of bitcoin can go more low but a time is coming the price will increase more than the price you open the position. If you use high leverage, you may want to cut loss, but the market is not that volatile recently, but still depends on the leverage used.

Doesn't this approach make me hostage to the crowd? If most people tend to focus on round prices, and I know that, shouldn't I move against the crowd? You said that





What will you reccomend me to do, when I have a goal, e.g. 20%, I am waiting for it (more or less), but I noticed that the price began to move in a different direction, not as I expected, and the value of the asset is lower than I bought. How do I know that selling with a small loss is better than waiting for a large-scale collapse and not waiting for 20% growth? And how should I understand when this loss is small and it is better to have time to get out of position?

From what I read, it is like you will prefer swing trading, swing trading is not about thinking of a certain percentage profit, it is about just leave your trade for long term and see the profit you have gained. You can at times set your goal to be 20% profit and it can be more or less, but most likely more. One thing about trading is that we should not be greedy, you will need to make your own goals about the percentage gain you want, all is based on sentiment, the gain might be more or less, but I do not use take profit for swing trading, I just leave the trade like that until I gain in a way that I am pleased with and when I know the market direction can not be easy to predict.

It's best to stick to what works for you. Don't conform to the speculation of the crowd to place any form of authenticity on your action. That will be seeking unnecessary validation from the crowd. Most times, the crowd is wrong.

Trading, at best, is based on speculation. A lot of traders  look at certain levels which are merely psychological to trigger or exit trades. It works most times because if everyone is looking at the same thing at the  same time, naturally they will react same way at the same time. These levels are often the round up numbers most times like $35,000, $40,000, $$45,000, etc. We even saw it yesterday when price got to $39,940+ and reverted. Since it's declining now, it's likely that more traders and investors will wait at the $35,000 region to trigger a buy. All that is psychology and away from TA. However, if any of those levels falls within a support or resistance level it should not be ignored.

Do I understand correctly that the selection of this ratio will vary from case to case? And also if I am willing to to risk x amount to achieve your target x amount, should I wait until I get this target amount even if I loose some part of investment when the price goes down at first? Shouldn`t I close the position with a loss in this case and just start over?

Most traders have different approaches or ways to trade.
Another thing to consider here, like how to identify your target/entry/stop-loss is using Risk Management.

Risk management will help you to make a good trader, it is like minimizing your loss while maximizing your profits. Here comes the risk:reward ratio where will help you to identify how you are willing to lose for this trade or for this target, in short, you are willing to risk x amount to achieve your target x amount.

If I understood correctly, in your opinion the target price is more psychological thing, right? That`s why I should decide what would be satisfied procent for my profit and shove off it? Correcting it at the same time on the basis of technical analysis.

Technical analysis is not to exactly predict the price in the future but only to give you idea on what might be the price in the future, because it could go sideways (that's why setting a stop loss and take profit) is very important.

So your question is on what price you'll set to take profit? The answer to that is depends on what price you are satisfied to take profits based on the technical analysis you have on a certain coin price chart movements. Because just like what I've said, technical analysis is not 100% accurate.

Always take profits when you're happy. A profit is still a profit, while your regret is not a profit at all.

I agree with you, many users are experiencing losses from their crypto trading because they lack patient in their trading that is making them not to achieve a good Profit like other traders that apply patient in their trade. Applying patient to your long term investment will help you to recover all your losses you have experienced last year 2021. those that use this strategy to sell their coins, find it difficult to lose Profit at the end of the market because they believe once the Profit rate get to 10% or 15%, they can sell to achieve the Profit from the market.  

Crypto market is highly uncertain you can overcome your losses by setting stop loss which will help you to get profit and reduce failure. It is not possible for the accurate prediction of price but people assesses about the price that if increase and go to mention time then they will sell that coin but they do not know that surely the price will go up or down these are just speculations.

Here's the thing, there is no such thing as fixed target price (10%, 20%, 50%) whenever you are doing technical analysis or trading it is more of an investment like waiting to have 20% before selling but if you are doing technical analysis no matter what time frame you will always have the profit zone and the stop loss zone every analysis have different price target (depending on how do you view the market) and the target price is not fixed so you read TA then do analysis where could be the top and bottom from where you are planning to enter but also consider the risk and reward ratio if it's not fit for your reward and ratio don't enter the trade and look for other opportunity.

I agree with you, simply too many factors affect the price, so methodologies for getting some possible price targets don't work all the time... I would say it's like guessing, not some wild one, after checking all sorts of indicators you can make your prediction, but there's no 100% successful methodology!
It's why I like to trade in the long run, it's less complicated... you don't care about daily indicators, you just go with bull/bear markets and do the opposite from others! It's a bit waiting sometimes, but when you check yearly charts Bitcoin makes insane swings!

It may not be easier for short term trading but for long term we can simply set our desired price and wait for it, to achieve it then make realistic targets and with cryptocurrencies you can even make 500% or more for each cycle so deciding factor is up to you and I will say let's wait until the price doubles so you can cash out the capital and let the profits to grow further so you can avoid taxes as well as zero risk.

It is nice to have control of our marketing strategy and that our price. If you don't have such control and allow emotions to take over our decision, it means we will keep going up and down profit and losses. The problem with trade is trying to make all the wealth at same trade and forgetting that we need to set a realistic target. Such realistic target gets us gradually into the big picture. Riding the market easily and gradually is the best and not to rush.

A target price is AN estimate of the longer term value of a market. Target costs square measure supported earnings forecasts and assumed valuation multiples. ... whereas opinion-based ratings have restricted worth, target costs will facilitate investors judge the potential risk/reward profile of the market.

I think business and emotion are two different things but I have to control them myself. Many times when we go beyond the set target in the hope of making more profit, we think that it should not be done at all. I need to have control. Therefore, it is important to follow a suitable target price methodology for buying or selling any asset.

This assumptions may be due to the fact that some users face lots of losses due to impatience and not wait for the profit. It means that you should think about the profit that if you have profit up to 5% or may be 10% then you should sell that coin as the greed behaviour may be sometimes become the reason of your failure. Whenever the price become in  dip then at least wait for the initial price to rise as selling at low price can make you loss of capital.

You sound like practical and this is how we should make use of technical analysis for finding out target price levels. Unfortunately, I was not taught on how to book profits with the help of technical analysis but what I have learnt from books and mentors was, we should primarily focus on entry levels and for target levels we can go as per our own expectations on profits.

It is like if we prefer then we can book profit at 5% or at 20%; it is like highly self-driven based on individual's preferences.

Target price isn't static as different factors affect target price. Capital is one of the key factors that decides how much profit target to set. But it's best to keep your profits realistic and achievable and it should be able to cover for losses when the occur. Having a fixed profit margin can be deceptive as trend changes and market volatility alternates

I usually go with fixed or get because when we are not greedy then we can easily book profit at what we need for that particular day. I am not actively trading these days still whenever I go for day-trading then I prefer to book profits at some 10% from my entry before the trend of market is changing. I am always afraid of market fluctuations from what we could predict; which is the reason I am satisfying myself with some profit rather than facing losses.

If you go waiting to gain up to 50% profit for your every trade then you might need to be patience for weeks to months because for that much big target levels you should have strong technical analysis and then you should have proper stop loss level; this way until your stop loss levels are not triggering then you can keep waiting to gain up to 50% profits.

You never considered emotions too lol Many times traders have a particular spot to want to exit but because of emotions they adjust and keep adjusting to an extent that greed sets in and at the end it comes into losses. Trading isn't easy and most times it is speculated upon but if we work over our emotions, we can always succeed.

You mean we should have imaginary target and when price reaches that target then we should book profits? But, I feel like if you follow this method then you will regret when market keep rising after you exit. I am just talking about bitcoin trading and you cannot predict the ATH level without the help of any technical analysis hence if you go with your imaginary target then definitely you will regret after some time.

Instead of going for imaginary target levels by your assumption, you should go for technical analysis to find out the probable peak price level and around that you should book profits then you may buy back with the help of same technical analysis.

These are all speculations and one thing that is to keep in mind is that one who are interested in trading then he should have to think about the value that if this coin reach to certain value then i will sell it just because it will give you benefit. It is really hard to predict the exact price but some people can make speculation and that works well.

You must think of cut loss price and target price.

From your entry price, target price / cut loss price should be 3x. It means you see bigger profit than loss if you take profit or cut loss from your entry price. If you see it is 1 or less, it is bad because you are gambling with difference of price to get loss is bigger than price difference to take profit.

There are multiple methodologies are available to set your target price levels.

1. Fixed targets. This can be 5% to 50% profits from your entry level and based on time frame of your strategy.

2. Technical driven. Candle sticks and support/resistance kind of strategies will notify about the change of trend to book profits.

In simple way, how you set your stop-loss levels? Stop-loss is a target to exit in negative direction and same applies to positive direction as well. Hence, you do not need a new mechanism for profit booking just go by your usual technical analysis way.

A trailing stop seems to me as a useful tool that can be used even if you have a target price, after all even if you have a target price you want to reach before you sell it is not rare for the market to move in ways we cannot predict and the price could go down before it reaches our target, but if we use a trailing stop then even in that scenario you will obtain profits as it will exit your position at an earlier point than if you were using a traditional stop loss.

Thank you for your explanation! I was looking through many charts the last previous days and I wonder, what to do, when we don`t have yet the next resistance line. If we look at your images we can see that the price was bouncing between two lines: 67507.79 and 60326.90 (the first picture). Those are support and resistance levels (for that time). Lately the price went down, to the next support level 53784.98. But what if the price would have broken through the first resistance level at 67507.79 and would have gone up? How in this case should I place my orders, if I don`t know where the next resistance would be? Is there any calculations for it?

Could you please tell more about this levels and how can I trace them. I already know about Fib.retracement, RSI, Momentum, Money Flow and Bollinger Bands, but I know about each of them separately, although I don’t know which indicators should be used with each other and how to superimpose one on top of the other.


Yeah, I also tried to do that, and at first I thought it was a good strategy. But I faced a problem with guessing the percentage by which to tighten the stop loss. For example, I bought at 50, set stop loss at 45, then it bacame 55, I changed stopp loss to 50 and began to wait for 60, but it hit 50 again after my stop loss was set, the order worked, I sold, however it became to rise again and reached 60, but without me this time.


How can I define S/R levels without using patterns?

Buying at support in an uptrend or a range market and selling at resistance in a declining trend or range market. But this isn't still a sure investment plan and so stop loss should be considered when making your entry because market can trigger support and resistance and even go beyond the support or resistance zone.

Honestly I have seen different story on the forum. Peeps here actually never tell to set the target price and dont advice them to hodl until they reach that particular prices. I think it's dangerous to do that because one can get stuck forever in the bear and bull loop if the price was too high at which they bought and if the coins are not doing pretty good in the bullish trend.

Most often users are seen giving advice to do the technical and fundamental analysis and based on that enter the market and make the exit strategy. Setting target prices is good thing as we know when to stop, but there should be a limit at which we set it. Investors has seen going crazy about the profit booking and instead they have ended up with loses than profits because they were too greedy.

Just enter the market at bear, make your mind clear that you have to reach your BEP, get few % in profits and exit it before your mind gets corrupted with greediness. Thats all mate.

What @hugeblack said about support levels is worth noting. Support levels are point were you can assume that a break towards lower price is a low probability, or price sees a high buying chance at that. Similarly Resistance levels where the selling pressure is high, it becomes a difficult point to cross coming from a support level below that.

Prices usually from a support towards resistance when bullish and opposite in bearish. But for how many levels this might go depends on the volume of change and how deep the support level is. As you lower, the stronger the support level, usually. You can link this with the fact that people will buy bitcoin if its price is low and therefore support it more when it goes down. Same thing happens in the stock market too.

Dont try to depend on patterns, this is my experience. These patterns are all man-made, no market tells you that "I am following this pattern" - usually these patterns are terms used to describe movements by news media and analysts. What you need to keep in mind is S/R levels like I said above and also the fact that bitcoin is a deflationary currency meaning that the longer you hold the more valuable in fiat it becomes.

Even if you exit the position early, it will not matter in the long run. The peak prices are often short lived, better than missing out on the sell order at that point, dont you think it is better if you sell fractions at every near-peak price? You dont need to touch the tip, but you can skim the sides of the peak and still get a lot.

Use trailing stop when you are not sure about when you should be going out. This means when it is going up, set the stop loss higher and higher, which means the moment it starts to go down, you will be automatically selling but still making a profit.

So, let's assume you bought at 50, you set a stop loss at 45, then it becomes 55, you change your stop loss to 50, it becomes 60 then you change yours to 55, it is 90, you change yours to 85 and keep doing that as long as it goes up. This is only applicable if you do not have a set target price. This way if it crashes suddenly, you still get out and still making a profit at the same time and benefits you greatly. However if you really want to decide on target price, then you should learn more about technical analysis. In TA you have a lot of indicators and people make their strategy based on that indicator.

You have raised some questions that probably other participants are likely to ask too. At some point I asked something like that and wanted to follow it up but I tell you it is possible to do or see in apps or something, it only base on your own determination to know the percentages you want to enter or you want to exit. This is good though, it will work like stop loss and in fact it will be a stop loss and profit gauge for you.

Mostly this can be very practicable when you are in a staking platform, you can monitor your profit easily because it is not volatile like trading coins. For trading you have to be fast in your calculations for some high volatile coins like bitcoin. However for your enquiry, it will have to depend on you to run out your percentage in calculating your entry and exit point.

You did not realize it but you answered your own question, there is not an exact science about this as it is impossible to predict with absolute certainty what it is going to happen in the market, at some point we need to make assumptions based on our experience and the past data of the market in order to more accurately predict what the market is going to do next and how big will that movement be, it is probably not the answer you are looking for but that is precisely why trading is not an exact science and a lot of the time it depends on making the right assumptions about what is happening in the market when we look at the charts.

They are often identified at points of support and resistance, meaning that you place the price at a specific support resistance point and buy at it and then sell at the following resistance points:

Example of nearby support and resistance points

53,000 | 56,000 | 58,000 | 63,000 | 67,000

Therefore, you can buy when the price falls to one of those levels and sell at half the value when it reaches close to the resistance point.
If the price increases, you will make profits, and if it decreases, you will have sold at a higher level.

Also, many people only sell the value they bought and invest in the profit.

by doing TA you can actually get some information how the coins will perform especially through fundamental analysis, and fyi not all the time you can achieve what exact percentage you want in just one trade. because you know market is so volatile and of course if you're doing intraday you need to set atleast 1/2 ratio to assure you can get profits before it makes correction..
For me perhaps 20 percent is possible unless if you see a break out pattern or a strong bullish momentum because usually the growth rate of the coin is really jumping high.. If not or just a normal trend i think it's impossible in just one trade.. Actually based on my experience on day trading it took me 4-5 trade in order to reach that average but still worth it. Lol

That's because of you, we have determined price movements based on the method of how to read movements that we believe in and learn. Broadly speaking, it does not mean that we will touch the price, but as an alternative when we are not in the market and the price has touched the point we have placed. Then you must also be able to divide the balance into several parts and not go all-in in one queue point. If you just save, of course until whenever you just wait. Therefore there is a strategy to apply it to the price movement of a crypto with the time range that we have determined.

Because of the nature of price movements, I think everyone and myself fall into the category of guessing, but rather than guessing without reason, it's much better to guess with our own reasons. Especially based on the knowledge we have. In the end, we cannot blame certain strategies, because all technical analysis is based on certain moments and accuracy in implementing them.

If, you know about it all, you should have realized from the start that the hypothesis you made and made had two consequences, namely that our method was used correctly or vice versa that the method applied was not correct. IMO there is no right method, it all depends on the level of mastery each has. It could be that what you are good at, has not been fully studied to its roots. As we often hear: The more we know a trading method, the more we feel that what we understand is still lacking".

Many forum participants, giving advice to beginners about trading, talk about the need to set orders for one`s own target price and wait until the asset reaches it. Intuitively, I agree with this approach as it fits with my own strategy. But I wonder, can someone advise on what exactly the target price assumption should be based on? Of course, I know about fundamental and technical analysis, about the need to read the chart before opening or closing positions. But I'm rather interested in whether it is possible to deduce certain patterns, by what percentage the asset will grow over a certain time, e.g. 3 month, a year etc.? How can I be sure that my price can be set at 20% of the current price, and not at 10% or 35%? Now for me it looks more like guessing, and I often exit the position earlier, since I do not suppose that after 20% there may be another 15% growth, for example. I really would like to improve my target pricing skills.