Topic: Technical Analysis Contest With Merit Rewards (Read 1782 times)

Thank you for your suggestions Kryptogunner.
For the next one I will wait a little in order to gather some new merits for the reward pool.

To make it fun and more appealing, reduce the timeframe of contest from 1 month to say 1 week or 10 days. Hourly charts or up would be a good enough for it. add BTC with 2 -3 other highly traded coins/ tokens with an option to choose from so that one can post the best trade instead of forcing a trade in BTC alone. more importntly, keep the thread alive. I guess most serious traders dont know this thread even exists.

Ty for this initiative. I personally would like to participate !

I'll do another contest later then when the market will be better.
Is anyone has a suggestion in term of rules modification in order to improve the next contest?

And keep up organize Another game always fun to watch

Hairry’s crushing

The contest ended two days ago and I will now present the results :

• Our great winner is HairyMaclairy when on the 28 th of august he predicted here: “Peak of $7250 around 2 September then fall again.  Explanation:  its the vibe.”  
  And he was quite right! On the 2th of September, BTC price was between 7130$ (low) and 7340$ (high). Then BTC rised up to the Fib resistance at 7400 and then started to dump to near 6000$. Due to its quite accurate prediction, I reward HairyMaclairy with 7 merits.
• On the 15 th of August, Atrocityx predicted the price of 7779 for the 13th of September as you can see here here. The price target was not achieved accurately but I will allow him 2 merits for his works on patterns.
• On the 6th of September, Victorycoin stated here : “Therefore present sell off is simply profit taking and would be contained before $6100. Then the upbeat for possibility of SEC approval of one of the ETF applications would push press above $7459 before September 13”. Unfortunatly BTC did not gather enough strength to break above 6550$. But his works with Bollinger Bands is awarded with 2 merits.
• Our Beloved Micgoossens demonstrated a magnificent piece of ch-ART on the 17th of august as you can see here and it will allow him to win 2 merits

Thank you very much to all the participants and to the people that contributed to the reward pool and allow this contest to run. The goal of this contest was to try to give an incentive to allow more TA on the forum and therefore I hoped that more people joined but the current market and price manipulation were not the best time for charting. I may try another contest later when the market conditions will be better!
See you soon!

I added the contribution of each participant on the first post.

Let's go everybody, less than one week to post you last Technical analysis before the end of this contest!

Thank you for your participation, let's see how your prediction will perform!

I have been trading for couple of years now and I know crypto or not, TA still have its role to play because it's for experienced traders what navigational aids are to pilots and captains, no more, no less! As such, it's the simpler - the clearer and better, trading is complex already, it's made less confusing by use of TA tools.

He was a forecast I put forward on 10th of JULY in this thread
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.41908569



Looking at the present market setup - it's remains almost same market outlook.


Therefore present sell off is simply profit taking and would be contained before $6100. Then the upbeat for possibility of SEC approval of one of the ETF applications would push press above $7459 before September 13 and well over $8500 after September 21, if it's a yes.

[Update]: So far so good with the short squeeze.. lots of upward pressure on shorts and they must defend their position here or its gonna cascade to 8k... Theres so much resistance right above us here though..
We got the 200 Day MA looming above in the 7700 range (rejected the upward momentum 4 times in a row now, see chart..)
You have the entering of the ichimoku cloud.. setting up a TK cross inside the cloud (first time in a while, more bullish than below)
You have two fibonacci retracement areas also piled in this one area.. and you have the trend line.. this is a lot to bare but I think we can sneak above this trend line and look to hold above (even if we trail it down for a bit) and look for a bounce when ready to go higher... this area is probably the most important area on the chart for months to come, and whether we pass or fail here could have months of implication (provided ETF doesn't pass).

10 days remaining in this contest! Don't forget to post here your charts to earn a chance to win some of the merits in function of your prediction accuracy!

For the moment the prediction of Hairy Maclairy is quite good!


Atrocityx's prediction is around 7779 for the 13th of September!


And there is still time also to post your ART Chart to compete with micgoosens

Here's another trade I was looking at just for fun, maybe looking to play the uptick on eth/btc... this is somewhat of a risky trade, but I feel eth is also in danger of a huge short squeeze.. its not a wonderful ratio for scalping compared to maybe alts right now, but this one hasn't taken off yet, could still fall through though so I'm gonna take a stop loss pretty tight if I enter this trade.

Indeed the next couple of days should be quite interesting!





Thank you HairyMaclairy for posting your "Vibe/wave" based prediction. Participation duly noted.

Cross posting my wave prediction from Wall Observer:



Peak of $7250 around 2 September then fall again.  Explanation:  its the vibe.  

I think the short squeeze is still imminent and the pressure will reach the 7200 range this week with 4 more days of institutional trading.. This will be the war zone because tons of whale's stops are right above here so there will be an all out margin massacre in this range, but I still think ultimately a short squeeze is in order which is in line with my chart.  Do NOT enter this area in margin especially above 10X because I think literally all longs and shorts will get absolutely rekt in the tug of war, expect high turbulence as shorts try to deal with the mounting pressure from below.

The more interesting trade maybe ETH however as it tries to push through the 290-295 range, expect a massive short squeeze in this region that if bitcoin continues its move upwards could send ETH way north of 300.00 as the relief rally continues.

Thank you for your input Deubila but I would say I don't understand it fully. Could you elaborate more? I already answered to Bustedsynx on this matter:

The one-hour chart is the minimum timeframe, participants can use any other timeframe greater than 1H if they want. I didn't allow lower timeframes because I'm not 24/7 on BTCT and therefore if someone would have posted a 1m timeframe charts with a time target 15 min later I would not have been able to see if he didn't modify its post after the time target.

Target date and target price is specified in the rules: They are defined by the participant (not everyone is a intra-day trader) but the time target have to be before the 13th of September. When the contest will end I will calculate an accuracy score for each chart for time and price and it will allow me to choose the winner on the different categories.

For example, Contestant A could use a 1H timeframe with a target date two days later while contestant B could use a 1D timeframe with a target 15 days later.
Each contestant defines its own target either in time and date.

Nowadays it's already kind of hard to generate technical analysis and therefore when I set the rules of the contest I didn't want to put any more constraints on the technical analysis because each analyst have its own way to do it (everyone works in different timeframe, with different target date and price depending on their analysis) and to put a specific target date is a really big constraint.


But if you have any advice on the rules, I will be glad to update them

I'm also wondering about this. Most of the contestants have clear time and place. The goal and value of the goal in the contest. But there is no mention here.

The contest is always on with 13 merits in the reward pool!
I know that the market is hard to predict this days but I'm sure some of us can do some good prediction over small time period (3 or 4 days).
 
Dear Technical Analysts of the BTCT forum show us good Charts and prediuction!

yeah i would like to see some get creative and put in there charts .....

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.44483975

just posted this thread today warning about a short squeeze is imminent, should have posted here, but oh well, Die 100X BEARS

Indeed lately the market is not easy to predict.
But here it's just a contest, nobody will judge you or invest on the charts you will create. It's just for fun, with some merits to gain and maybe we will find the luckiest guy of the forum (or the greastest chartist).
There is more than 10 merits here and even an art contest! If I were a junior member I will be more than eager to participate and try to win those merits.

I’m surely not capable for BTCTA but like to see them When Many green and lines Going up are on the map 
But When its long term vision then you do not be really bothered with those TA ... then its more to kill the time till When we get there
My only TA is buy and hodl its also the most easy to do 

Lol yeah, I was thinking the same... the problem in trading right now is its hard to really predict anything past a few hours in advance, since the amount of shorts and longs has a lot to do with how the bart candles react. You need to see where they are entering on free liquidity and what's most likely to cause a short and long squeeze and where those specifically entered and where they're most likely stops or liquidation are.... standard TA doesn't really work in this manipulated margin environment.

I don't think his disappointment is in you or the topic but rather in lack of participation in the topic and I don't think it is going to change since topics so far show that people aren't interested or maybe some of them not capable of TA for bitcoin.
I was expecting at least someone steal something from here and post in this topic  https://www.tradingview.com/ideas/search/bitcoin/ haha

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_topics_characterized_as_pseudoscience
tru beliebers not much sense of humour

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=T%26A

sheesh, tough room

You were the first to participate so I m enclined to let you change your target date (the target date must be before 13th of september) if you want.


Thanks to the merit donator, I have added one more merit to the pool.

I thought you said September 13th was the end date or something?  Lol I'm a bit drunk but I thought it was "1 month from now"

Thank you for your input, if you could elaborate more on why you're disapointed, it could be great for me, I could try to change something to the contest.
It's just the beginning of the contest, I'm sure more participants will come, they are all polishing their charting tools at the moment to generate the best TA forecast ;p



Thank you Bustedsynx. The one hour chart is the minimum timeframe, participants can use any other timeframe greater than 1H if they want. I didn't allowed lower timeframes because I'm not 24/7 on BTCT and therefore if someone would have posted a 1m timeframe charts with a time target 15 min later I would not have been able to see if he didn't modify its post after the time target.
Target date and target price is specified in the rules : They are defined by the participant (not everyone is a intra-day trader) but the time target have to be before the 13th of september. When the contest will end I will calculate an accuracy score for each charts for time and price and it will allow me to choose the winner on the different categories.
If you have any advice on the rules, I will be glad to update them


In my optinion a lot of Technical Analists lost interest in TA lately due to this bear market.
That's why I started this contest, I wanted to give an incentive to relaunch activity on TA in the forum

@micgoosens, boy am I tempted to try and outdo you, but you deserve the art prize, no one can come close to demonstrating in one splendid chart how we'll always return to this wisdom. Don't need no TA to tell us that.

@atrocityx, 25 days to your prize, hope this occasional bumping attracts the high-lives of this forum;)

@OP I guess TA is deader than all the charters would like to admit?

What? You didn't have any kind words for our two participants? Show some support, or show them how it's done, why don't you?

then show them how its done .... i'm NOT a ta guy ...... are you ?

This contest will not do well. Usually contests have a target date and target price. A one hour chart cannot show that.

came for the new T&A thread

was disappointed

Thank you Micgoossens for your participation with this quite uncommon chart! It will run for the art part of the contest



Indeed atrocityx is for the moment the only one entitled for the cumulated 10 merits reward (at minimum) if no one else take a shot at doing some TA.
And Micgoossens is also the only one to amaze us with BitcoinART!

For atrocityx time prediction, on its chart the 13th of september is specified : I had in mind to use this time target for his prediction. @atrocityx correct me if I am wrong

1 entry in so far, @atrocityx so you're in running for a fair bit of merit. You neglected to mention a timeframe for your prediction though? Or are we meant to extrapolate from the chart?


Mmmm, a prolonged bear market that stretches past a year from now? I'd be on for that. Interest dropping, volume stabilizing. Even price in perpetual sideways momentum. Perfect launchpad for the next bubble to rise (oh no, I used that word). More tales to be told when I'm old, then

Shitfights with EOS/ETH? That took its time!

i allready had this one made up when i was on holliday few weeks back ..... let say THE THIS MOMENT PART .... we will be A 2000 higher so 8500.7 USD

Thanks for the compliment, good luck with your chart

This is really good use of trendlines. The patterns are bang on.

I'd do it too, but mine would look pretty much the same as this. I might add that the MACD is building a bullish divergence on the 4H, and I would be a bit hesitant to call 7779 because it looks like there could be a stall at the 7477 level which is .618 fib resistance and 1.618 extension XOP target.

Unless of course some ETF madness causes it to surge straight past those levels.

Even if you don't feel confident to do some TA you can participate to the ART part of the contest where the most beautiful art made on chart is awarded with 2 merits

Actually, we might be up for potentially a 'bear market' that lasts all the way till Q2/Q3 of 2019.

Historically, the first few months of each year thus far have always been the worst months for Bitcoin. Nothing but declining prices.

It allows long term minded Bitcoin freaks to keep accumulating coins well under the $10,000 level for plenty of more months, and we can enjoy how crazy the constantly changing sentiment is here, and the shitfights happening within the EOS verus ETH scene. I love the drama in this scene man, there is never a shortage of it.  

Nice topic, will definately follow this for educational purposes. Maybe later on i will try and add a graph o myself too, i am not confident enough in my line drawing skills to share this at the moment.

Thank you Atrocityx to be the first participant in this contest!!
I wish you good luck with the interesting analysis you proposed to us!

I'll take a stab at it

A graph with the different overlays of your technical analysis:
The Target in price that you forecast and an approximation of time of when it will occur: 7779
A little description of your TA than explain your target in price: Bart Candle Manipulation, hunting for stop losses, using TA concepts against the people, slow creep upwards with ETF anticipation growing

Thank you to all the contributors to the rewards pool, I have added one more merit to each type of TA tool based analysis.

And it's good to read your feelings about TA. This post is about a contest on TA but it's nice to discuss about its usefullness.
In my opinion, Technical Analysis is just a part concerning price forecasting in crypto (and forex/stock/future...)

In addition to TA, in order to try to do more accurate price forecast you have to take into account market sentiment (how the crypto enthusiasts will react to the market will depend on their confidence into the market, on the news on mainstream media, crypto media, twitter, influencer.... Even if some part of TA can predict the human mind reaction to cycle by using wyckoff it's not enough) as well as fundamental analysis (how solid is a crypto project, does the team is capable on delivering, marketing, finance, token economy, ...) .

Those three tools must be combined to allow better understanding of what is driving the price.

But as always, those three tools are not perfect, and you are not away of one unexpected move from several whales or some price manipulation. "Shit Happens"  

Maybe those who are in favor of TA can show here to those who are not in favor that TA could be and interesting tool (not a perfect tool that is always right but a useful one) because we are here to see some Charts!!! With Lines, Indicators and all  

I don't believe it does a thing for day trading to be honest. I've never seen anyone doing daily trades getting consistent yearly earnings. Simply it's too much noise.

A much different story is looking at the big picture with some basic technical analysis. I've never enjoyed the fancy indicators. My favorite are channels, so that's drawing support and resistance lines and go from there. From time to time I would use a fib indicator to look at the crashes and potential pumps. Mean lines (the horizontal ones) to also test peaks, MACD for volme.. not much else. I've never been able to use boolinger bands and other stuff.

Also anything less than an daily chart is nonsense to me specially in bitcoin, like I said before, too much noise.

Right then, so the only guys who came in here are those who don't believe in TA, but take a lot of joy (?) in reading them anyway - and damn, I know all of you, too

Don't give up hope yet, though, maybe some serious charting work is taking place right now in the basement. I love these dice rolls, beautiful sextuple bottoms or Double DD charts must be showing up now. We're obviously bored and there's still more than four months left to this crypto winter wonderyear, so get cracking, you profit-touting analysts!

interesting how everyone is now agreeing with me that TA doesn't work for bitcoin! but when I have been arguing that $6k is the bottom and won't break I was shown some TA that proved it will break and go lower!

in any case I am still disappointed. 2 days ago when I saw this topic I though this can be the incentive to bring back some actual analysis to this board and reduce the "guess the price after x days" topics which are dominant here. but guess the incentive was not enough

This is actually a pretty good idea. You got a merit.

Being a Bitcoin forum, we actually are lacking any major technical analysis for BTCUSD.

We got a discussion and all but there aren't much charts posted and analysis like you would find in the bitcoinmarkets reddit.

I am looking forward for this thread.

yeah
also to many diffrent TA and always a hero of the moment getting it right , AND can't get it more wrong on his fabolous next prediction
BUT like to read there thinkings good amusement after all

They are rolling the dice at the moment. Betting on that 6000 line. TA in crypto doesnt make sense a lot to me. It is only a self fulfilling prophecy actually. I focus on fundamentals and bitcoins are rock solid in the long term.

curious where all the TA guys are @the moment
don't look @ me i do not know anything of TA also only a hodler myself and sometimes contest creater 
but hope to see some guys going crazy down here

I believe in human nature which means FOMO, bubbles, ruin and bottomless levels of stupidity. I definitely believe in bubble cycles as humans are prone to them anyway and crypto's lack of supply and liquidity is tailor made for it.

Because of that and beyond that I don't think minute by minute or day by day TA is worth shit in a market this pathetic and twitchy. All someone has to do is roll out 'Korea ban' for the 1256th time to get a nice fall.

Surprised that a lot of people here believe that traditional TA don't apply to cryptocurrencies, but a lot of traders here are still using TA for their buy and sell decisions. For me Technical Analysis is more of a study of Human Behaviour because you can literally translate the price movement of what the majority of people are doing with the cyrptocurrency as it reflects with their respective chart. Even if it is not 100% accurate I still use it to somehow minimize the risk when it comes to my decisions in the market.

Not a fan of TA myself. Bitcoin doesn’t behave like regular, old fashioned stocks & trades which is primarily what TA was successful (to some extent) when paired with.

Bitcoin is still relatively, in its infancy. It’s a bit of a wild beast that nobody can accurately control or predict its behaviour.

My personal strategy is to HODL which is what I’ve been doing since May 2014 & buying at regular intervals. It hasn’t failed me so far. What I invested has, even at the current price turned into obscene profits that I never thought I’d see (obviously I haven’t sold my stash - I’m on about its USD value).

Any way the point of my ramblings is that you’re probably going to mess up at least as often as you succeed tryibg to play the market with bitcoin. You just can not predict short to medium term price movements, especially dangerous if you are using leverage.

Stand back & look at a graph of bitcoin’s price movement since the 1st block was mined. The overall sentiment is upwards price movement.

Trust me, just HODL for another few years & you will become wealthy. Fuck trying to trade based on TA, it’s a fucking fools game.

^  TA used the right way with the right indicators for the right trading style could help make your trades less spewy.  That and good bankroll management would at least make you lose less than you would have if you weren't using some TA. 

But TA is not a crystal ball.

I think TA is a load of poo myself, but if it keeps young people off the streets at night then I'm all for it. Perhaps someone will post something here that turns me into a believer. I'm not holding my breath.

Thanks Buwaytress for adding some sMerit to the rewards pool (I will add one more merit to the main reward) and for your comments on datasource. I will add one rule on this matter.

And indeed it's not easy to rewards Luck over expertise on a one shot call. But for the first contest I will try like this.

I'm a sucker for creative and intelligent TAs, so I might merit entries/submissions that I also like, and have added 1 more to OP to distribute (in the form of sMerit I mean). Personally, I don't think a one-time accuracy is any pointer of expertise, since someone could get really lucky in the timeframe. Consistency would be a better indicator, but since I believe even that is largely down to luck (again, depending on timeframe) I suppose there's no harm in awarding the "luckiest" analyst.

Don't forget to mention data source. Just in case someone prefers to plug into an exotic dataset

Thanks to Pursuer, the rewards on the contest were increased (1 more merit for the most accurate TA and 1 merit for the TA using most effectively FIB  and support/Resistance)

Being a fan of Technical Analysis I would like to launch a contest on this matter with merit rewards.

If you want to participate to this contest here are the rules :

• The contest will run during one month and will end in the 13th of September when I will choose the winners in the different categories
• All the technical analysis will have to be on BTC/USD pair
• To participate you have to post your technical analysis here and you have to add those info :
  
  • A graph with the different overlays of your technical analysis
  • The Target in price that you forecast and an approximation of time of when it will occur
  • A little description of your TA than explain your target in price.
• Each member may only participate once and cannot modify their prediction (I will do screenshot or quote of the prediction of each participant)
• Any kind of technical analysis is allowed (patterns, indicators,….)
• The contest is open to every rank in forum
• To perform your Technical Analysis you can use any time frame superior or equal to 1H.
• The price prediction must be reached before the end of the contest.
• The price data used for TA should be from one of this exchange (high volume exchanges to limit exotic price movements) : Coinbase, Bitstamp, Bitfinex

Different rewards will be in place :

• The most accurate TA (in term of price and time) will be awarded with 5 merits
• The TA using the most effectively Patterns Overlays (Triangles, flags, Head and shoulders, cup and handle, Pennants, Wedge, candle patterns, fractals, ….) will be rewarded with 2 merits
• The TA using the most effectively Indicators (MACD, EMA, RSI, ADX, OBV,…) will be rewarded with 2 merits
• The TA using the most effectively levels (FIB, Support/resistance) will be rewarded with 2 merits
• The TA which is the most beautiful piece of art (Yes I know that some of you are real artist like this example and this one) will be rewarded with 2 merits

If I manage to secure more merits during the time of the contest, I will reward the different winners with more merits and add some categories

Good luck everyone!