Topic: Testing a new strategy to guess correct Euro 2020 scores (Read 72 times)

I'm using Sportsbet markets to estimate correct scores of Euro 2020 games today. Any other sportsbook's market also works as long as they have AT, AH and team total goals markets. First I look at the Asian Total markets to see which goal numbers are realistic, usually, it's between 2-3, but one of these is usually more preferred to the other.

Next, I look at X : 0 handicap markets to rule out some final score configurations. The thought process is something like "If Sweden has bad odds for 1:0 handicap then their goal difference vs Slovakia will be 1 or less or they could just draw or lose" (made-up example just for demonstration) so then I can rule out scores like 2-0, 3-0, 1-3 etc.

For tiebreakers across the remaining scores, I look at each team's Total Goals Scored market and I usually arrive at a score that matches one of the common picks in the Correct Score market.

In case it's still ambiguous whether a passive team will score 0 or 1 which happens quite often, Then I use Asian Handicap +1/-1 to break the tie. Usually when it gets to here then the odds of that score happening are really close so the result could actually swing away from my AH datapoint.

It works particularly well in international matches since the range of possible goals is much less than in club matches (0 to 3 total goals usually). It's also really tedious, as I just spent 2 hours making my predictions for the last 6 games of Round 2, so it may not be for you. I think it's terrible at estimating club match results because the scores are often wild like 3-1, 2-4, 6-2 etc.

Looking at past results and choosing one of 2-1, 2-0, 1-0 0-1 has gotten me close scores recently since the probability of ending in a draw is less than the other 1X2 outcomes because less scores constitute a draw. But I need to get exact scores, not just close scores, as even getting consistent close scores hasn't saved me from getting hammered in the prediction pool.