Tether Has No Real Impact on Bitcoin price

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Quote from: rickadone on September 25, 2018, 01:12:42 PM

Demand should always affect bitcoin value and not tether, with tether just being only a medium to hedge one's fund in this equation, so I see no reason why the real impact should be there in the first place.

It does so indirectly. As long as USDT hasn't been sold back to Bitfinex for USD, there is always capital ready to be put to work, while with fiat it's far more likely that it gets withdrawn back to people's bank accounts, meaning that money has left the market for real and won't be put back into action so easily. It's definitely a stimulating factor for crypto in general.

Quote from: aqila baruroh on September 30, 2018, 11:49:02 AM

more precisely the price of bitcoin has no effect on Tether's price

It doesn't. What does affect Tether's price (locally) is an exchange messing up. WEX is the perfect example of how insolvency can lead to crazy high USDT rates (currently 1USD=0.25USDT) because that's pretty much the only asset users can withdraw occasionally. I'm pretty sure that WEX operators are doing everything they can to exploit the higher rates in their advantage.

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more precisely the price of bitcoin has no effect on Tether's price, the price of the Tether is never far from $ 1. a large volume makes this coin very appropriate to invest.

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Quote from: fabiorem on September 25, 2018, 08:02:33 AM

They were always unrelated. Tether is just a Bitfinex altcoin, in the same way as Binance have its BNB.

Sort of. Except BNB is not interchangeable with fiat money and it has a fixed supply. On Bitfinex, USDT is interchangeable with USD and it has an elastic supply.

Running an ICO doesn't seem as concerning as exchanges printing USD and turning their books into fractional reserve.

Quote from: fabiorem on September 25, 2018, 08:02:33 AM

But the funny thing about this, is that nobody complains about nation-states printing money without anything to back it, whereas if a private company do the same, its a storm of FUD. Food for thought.

I always see bitcoiners are complaining about fiat money printing. Cheesy

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I believe it's not true at some pace of time, because whenever bears tried to dump on Bitcoins, there used to be some news show up as a surprise that a few million tether has been printed (produced) and added to the circulation which made the markets move in a rising star way. Tether sometimes used to affect Bitcoin and some major alts' (such as litecoin and ethereum) price in a way that can't be denied. In Wei's words in the "No Pump found" paragraph: "However, you cannot use trading volume to predict price, as the effect is simultaneous. In my paper, I state that past trading volumes do not impact future returns.” To some extent, it may be concluded that past had those inflation attempts which could or couldn't be seen in future.

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Quote from: LeGaulois on September 23, 2018, 11:15:16 AM

Do you remember the waves of people (including me maybe) saying some time ago that the price of Bitcoin is related to Tether (Is Bitcoin Really Un-Tethered?)

There is an academic study by a university researcher debunking the claims. It used VAR model (Vector autoregression) The study claims there is not any strong evidence between Thether and the Bitcoin's rally in 2017
https://www.ccn.com/tether-no-real-impact-on-bitcoin-price-university-researcher/

Since for a while now, there has been some proof that the amount of tether one way or the other is tied to the exact amount available in fiat normally in the bank, I have always believed it does not really have much of an impact on the price unless of course we get to see some shady stuff happen in the long run when it comes to tether printing and then the current amount available based on auditing.

Demand should always affect bitcoin value and not tether, with tether just being only a medium to hedge one's fund in this equation, so I see no reason why the real impact should be there in the first place.

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They were always unrelated. Tether is just a Bitfinex altcoin, in the same way as Binance have its BNB.

But the funny thing about this, is that nobody complains about nation-states printing money without anything to back it, whereas if a private company do the same, its a storm of FUD. Food for thought.

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Quote from: MainIbem on September 23, 2018, 01:46:16 PM

For there to be the kind of influence, USDT has to have to same or more popularity as BTC. As it stands for my view, fewer people know USDT. It is natural that the researchers concluded that there is no influence.

There is seriously no real influence as far as I am concerned, and I believe for a while now, people's doubt about tether being printed out of thin air and probably affecting the market has been doused since the whole auditing thing came into show and then I am not sure how they proved it is tied to a real bank account and the amount present therein.

Nevertheless, it is normal for people to always tie things to a bear market anyway, and as far as I am concerned, as long as we get to see real life usage, people will get to find out tether is just a stable currency tagged to fiat and nothing else than that which makes it not to have a direct effect on the price unless the supply itself generally across board is huge than the demand.

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Not having to round to the nearest satoshi gives altcoin/usdt trading pairs more liquidity than altcoin/xbt trading pairs, which means more competition.

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: pooya87 on September 23, 2018, 11:32:32 PM

thanks for sharing this. the tether drama has been one of the biggest FUDs of last year and it has never made any sense at all, mainly because the whole theory had a lot of exceptions to it that defied the conclusion that it was trying to make.

Quote from: bbc.reporter on September 23, 2018, 10:10:06 PM

But to summarize those articles, they illustrated that more USDT are issued during the times when the price of bitcoin was going down because there was more demand for USDT. To maintain the peg of 1 USDT - $1, more USDT have to be issued. That's a simple summary, but the articles also expain the use of arbitrage.

true. generally speaking new tether is issued whenever there is an increase in trading volume because there are more traders and since all of the altcoin exchanges have USDT pairs since they are avoiding fiat and the KYC that comes with it USDT is needed so that people can run away to it and/or use it to transfer funds between exchanges.

although one question rises here. we all know the market enters excited phases when there is a lot of volume (like end of 2017) but it exits them and enters slow mode with lower volume. what i wonder is how tether price remains up with a large volume in circulation but nowhere near the same demand?

Are you asking about how USDT maintains its peg in situations when there is high supply and low demand? Tether.to was a central authority on exchanging 1USDT to $1 and I reckon they still might be. I have not followed the whole story when they lost their banking partners.

In any case, if the peg is still there, maybe they found new banking partners.

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Quote from: adaseb on September 24, 2018, 05:54:42 PM

Being around Bitcoin since 2013. There is never a shortage of FUD drama like the Tether. Especially all the claims by that Bitfinex'ed twitter guy.
All the claims and it was all circumstantial evidence. Nothing solid.

The reason why tether spiked up massively in 2017 was because the price of BTC and other cryptos grew. The crypto market cap went from $20 billion to $800 billion in less than a year. Obviously there are early adopter that want to take profit. Some took profit in USD, EUR,GBP but some took profits in USDT. So the higher the crypto marketcap went the higher the tether market cap went to make enough supply for everybody wanted to cash-out.

I am not so sure I don't think enough time has passed to see if this last bubble was completely free of a tether push we will see in the coming year.

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Being around Bitcoin since 2013. There is never a shortage of FUD drama like the Tether. Especially all the claims by that Bitfinex'ed twitter guy.
All the claims and it was all circumstantial evidence. Nothing solid.

The reason why tether spiked up massively in 2017 was because the price of BTC and other cryptos grew. The crypto market cap went from $20 billion to $800 billion in less than a year. Obviously there are early adopter that want to take profit. Some took profit in USD, EUR,GBP but some took profits in USDT. So the higher the crypto marketcap went the higher the tether market cap went to make enough supply for everybody wanted to cash-out.

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Quote from: Samarkand on September 24, 2018, 02:04:28 PM

I thought that the latest theory was that Tether was enabling people
from Asia (especially China) to buy cryptocurrencies that had problems
with wiring money to regular exchanges due to capital controls.

It just makes sense if you ask me. People from other countries can easily wire funds to exchanges and have
no need to use Tether as an intermediary. But people from China used Tether as an intermediary
in order to circumvent capital controls.

How does Tether actually allow them to circumvent capital controls? I don't think it does. I don't think Chinese residents can easily fund Tether deposits beyond normal capital controls.

I think the Chinese exchanges just set up offshore Tether exchanges and many Chinese traders moved there. Those traders still need to move money in and out of the BTC market via peer-to-peer markets in China. As far as I know, most BTC/CNY volume has moved to OTC and P2P.

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I thought that the latest theory was that Tether was enabling people
from Asia (especially China) to buy cryptocurrencies that had problems
with wiring money to regular exchanges due to capital controls.

It just makes sense if you ask me. People from other countries can easily wire funds to exchanges and have
no need to use Tether as an intermediary. But people from China used Tether as an intermediary
in order to circumvent capital controls.

I used to doubt whether the money to back all outstanding USDT is actually there, but nowadays
I believe that the money is actually there, but it comes from Chinese whales and miners
that can´t fund cryptocurrency exchange accounts. Maybe they are so reluctant to open
their books for this reason.

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Quote from: pooya87 on September 23, 2018, 11:32:32 PM

what i wonder is how tether price remains up with a large volume in circulation but nowhere near the same demand?

Tether's advantage is that the majority of the people are forced to hold it because they aren't in the mood to get actual fiat out by licking Bitfinex's ass.

It creates a situation where hundreds of millions worth of Tether is just patiently waiting on the side line to enter whenever people see an opportunity to do so. Most people can withdraw actual fiat through their exchanges, but with Tether the only way to exit is through Bitfinex, which is an exchange not many people have confidence in, and definitely not want to feed their personal information.

In that regard, Tether plays a more important role than most people here think. What would happen with the prices if everyone was freely able to cash out?

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Quote from: dewildance on September 23, 2018, 01:47:40 PM

I don't like Tether and other stable coins. I think there's no real benefits to the world of crypto money.

These are all not a profitable platform but this will be stable investment so it is one of the good technology in crypto industry. Nowadays all are expecting a decentralised platform but USDT is developing a crypto reputation because all the shopping stores are accepting the USDT in my area because of stable value so it will occupy the good marketcap in short period. So this will be a real impact of all the Cryptocurrencies.

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thanks for sharing this. the tether drama has been one of the biggest FUDs of last year and it has never made any sense at all, mainly because the whole theory had a lot of exceptions to it that defied the conclusion that it was trying to make.

Quote from: bbc.reporter on September 23, 2018, 10:10:06 PM

But to summarize those articles, they illustrated that more USDT are issued during the times when the price of bitcoin was going down because there was more demand for USDT. To maintain the peg of 1 USDT - $1, more USDT have to be issued. That's a simple summary, but the articles also expain the use of arbitrage.

true. generally speaking new tether is issued whenever there is an increase in trading volume because there are more traders and since all of the altcoin exchanges have USDT pairs since they are avoiding fiat and the KYC that comes with it USDT is needed so that people can run away to it and/or use it to transfer funds between exchanges.

although one question rises here. we all know the market enters excited phases when there is a lot of volume (like end of 2017) but it exits them and enters slow mode with lower volume. what i wonder is how tether price remains up with a large volume in circulation but nowhere near the same demand?

bbc.reporter

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@LeGaulois. The FUD from those 2 economists have been exposed, I reckon hehehe.

Also, I wish I can find the articles with the explanations on why more USDT were issued. Everyone needs to read them because all the replies show that they do not understand why more USDT was issued.

But to summarize those articles, they illustrated that more USDT are issued during the times when the price of bitcoin was going down because there was more demand for USDT. To maintain the peg of 1 USDT - $1, more USDT have to be issued. That's a simple summary, but the articles also expain the use of arbitrage.

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Quote from: smartbitcoininvestor on September 23, 2018, 04:44:13 PM

I'm fairly certain that Tether is tied to the USD which is tied to a host of other factors such as the interest rate, price of gold, housing market, stock market, inflation, etc

Seriously, you're overestimating Tether. It's nothing more than a token that should take away the inconvenience of actual fiat that's tied to KYC/AML policies forcing people using an exchange to verify themselves.

Tether in a way is similar to what paper gold represents. In both cases there is a promise that you can withdraw the underlying asset as per its stated value and quantity. If you discard the promise, it's just a token and that's it.

I'm not really in favor of these stable coins, but they do fill up an important role here, especially with how you can hedge a correction in crypto and easily move it to another exchange without being subject to legal shit.

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I'm fairly certain that Tether is tied to the USD which is tied to a host of other factors such as the interest rate, price of gold, housing market, stock market, inflation, etc

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Quote from: Marcel666 on September 23, 2018, 04:15:27 PM

I agree that they ate totally unrelated.
It's probably a coincidence that the price of bitcoins rises when the supply of tether increases.
There are many valid factors that affects cryptocurrencies value, tether is not one of them.

And what about the drops in the price of Bitcoin when they published that paper about pumps on tether. Later tether was audited but people were saying that it wasn't a full and thorough audit. At that time people were very fearful of a crash that could be started by tether. Even if we only count this psychological influence we'll be able to say that they are related.

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Quote from: MainIbem on September 23, 2018, 01:46:16 PM

For there to be the kind of influence, USDT has to have to same or more popularity as BTC. As it stands for my view, fewer people know USDT. It is natural that the researchers concluded that there is no influence.

How is it that fewer people know Tether while most of BTC|XBT/USDT traders always move their funds to USDT to avoid losing capital when the market is plummeting, especially that USDT is stable to mirror USD 1:1. Also, almost all top exchanges had BTC/USDT pair only for trading before moving to the implementation of USD market (even after that, BTC/USDT has more volume than BTC/USD on those exchanges, take Bittrex for example). Unless we are talking about average Joes/Jills here, I don't think Tether is any less known than Bitcoin among crypto members.

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I agree that they ate totally unrelated.
It's probably a coincidence that the price of bitcoins rises when the supply of tether increases.
There are many valid factors that affects cryptocurrencies value, tether is not one of them.

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Quote from: dewildance on September 23, 2018, 01:47:40 PM

I don't like Tether and other stable coins. I think there's no real benefits to the world of crypto money.

I'm not sure, but I think they might benefit overall liquidity and may even reduce volatility. If we compare USD stablecoins to USD exchange balances, I strongly suspect that the latter are much more likely to be withdrawn to a bank account. On top of that, stablecoins can inject liquidity into any market -- they're not relegated to any one exchange like a dollar balance at Coinbase.

When people talk about "money on the sidelines" that's exactly what USDT is. Assuming there's no funny business, an expanding Tether supply means increasing amounts of liquidity that aren't leaving the cryptocurrency ecosystem at all.

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i don't believe that tether has much of a positive impact on the price of bitcoin but I do strongly believe that if tether were to collapse in the coming months that it would have a catastrophic influence on the price of bitcoin. I think it would be something akin to the Lehman brothers collapse that triggered a global financial crisis but limited to crypto.

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I agree with guys above Who Ask what do you think Will happen if Tether collapse? A lot of huge exchanges work with it. Fortunately more and more go alternatives theese days (usd, tusd, gusd)

And don't you think that printed Tethers go to exchanges and buy btc, eth, eos and others pumping their price?

Also a lot of People think so, monitor Tethers emission and buy btc when they see another million of usdt came to the market

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the Tether is like a fiat in the crypto as it is based one a particular fixed price or rate which is one united states dollar. it is therefore a fact when said that Tether has no real impact on the price of bitcoin as it tends to adjust itself to the price of one dollar equivalent on the bitcoin satoshi.

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I don't like Tether and other stable coins. I think there's no real benefits to the world of crypto money.

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For there to be the kind of influence, USDT has to have to same or more popularity as BTC. As it stands for my view, fewer people know USDT. It is natural that the researchers concluded that there is no influence.

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i already read this news.i think tether has connection on bitcoin price .i cant elaborate how tether connecting on btc price its just my opinion.

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USTD will have some effect on Bitcoin Price for a little while, as I think (crazy people ans conspiracy theories definitely impacts for a short while), but I strongly believe that BTC is strong enough to not to give a shit about that.

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Of course, the USDT coin should not influence the bitcoin rate. This is practically a digital copy of the dollar. The USDT coin is well used as a buffer when exchanging for another crypto currency, when there are no direct pairs for exchange, but it is most suitable for subsequent output to fiat. Also, it can accumulate funds as a reserve for subsequent investments. This is a very useful coin, but in itself it does not bring profit, because its rate as a whole always corresponds to one dollar.

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If you believe that tether and Bitcoin are unrelated what do you think would happen if an audit of Tether showed that there's much more USDt than USD? That millions of USDt was made out of thin air. We'd be facing another year of bear market and 5000 USD at the very least.
As long as tether keeps representing real dollars it will be fine and we can keep saying there's no relation but when it loses public trust all hell will break loose.

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Do you remember the waves of people (including me maybe) saying some time ago that the price of Bitcoin is related to Tether (Is Bitcoin Really Un-Tethered?)

There is an academic study by a university researcher debunking the claims. It used VAR model (Vector autoregression) The study claims there is not any strong evidence between Thether and the Bitcoin's rally in 2017
https://www.ccn.com/tether-no-real-impact-on-bitcoin-price-university-researcher/

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