Topic: Tether & scalability still looming bottom not in: -80% until end of january 2019 (Read 251 times)

BTC 2700, ETH 90 [May 2017 session]. Before September 2019.

There will be an interim rally for 60 days starting december, Top 5 might not be included in that rally except XRP. We're going to 422 global.

fundamentally, i don't think traders control the market. traders are just providing liquidity on both sides of order book, trying to ride the waves (most of them fail).

traders do provide short squeezes and long squeezes when commitment of traders gets too heavy on either side. but that's just a small piece of the market, like news pumps and dumps. they can be catalysts for major price moves, or they can sputter out into nothing.

that's because it's investor supply and demand---profit taking and mining distribution vs accumulation and adoption---that primarily "controls" the market and establishes the long term trends. it looks to me like bears trading the short side have continually tried to expand the range below $6000 but keep failing. it's not leveraged longs that are holding the market up, but broader investor demand.

Traders will give a shit if it influences them, if they don't give a shit it's because no one else gives a shit. If no one else gives a shit it's because people don't care about the tech behind bitcoin and only the value. Scalability is an issue no doubt but it's not a major issue.

I disagree with this speculations and analysis as the market seen opposite.  Bitcoin falling back to $1800 this year and ethereum to $50 is what I cannot comprehend and I think we should be heading towards $10,000. However,  the bottom maybe we're bitcoin is today and investing now should be the right investments decision to make.

The price is controlled by traders. Traders don't give a shit about scaling and I'm sure more than a few don't realise there's a problem.

Tether? Bleurgh. That's rolled out by kiddies trying to scare other kiddies.

Still possible there'll be a much lower price. It won't be because of either of those factors.

comparing the challenges bitcoin faces regarding scaling with the horrible flaws that ethereum has regarding scaling is like comparing apples and oranges. where bitcoin has been overcoming its scaling matters, ethereum has been failing from day one because of its design such as flaws including having fast blocks.
not to mention that scaling has never been a concern for investors, they have proved last year that they will even pay $100 per transaction for fees if it comes to it while trading bitcoin.

It's a good point. If anything the opposite is likely because everyday there are many smart people looking to solve the scalability issue, eventually there will be a solution and if scalability is really subduing the price then that should spark an increase.

when you put all your conclusions based on the market psychology and the assumption that it is highly irrational then you should also know that it works both ways. in other words if you say because of it the price can drop to ridiculously low prices such as $1k then you should also believe that there is equal chance that this irrationality leads to price reaching $100k within the same time frame.

I do not think that at the end of the year such a global drop is possible: Bitcoin up to $ 1400-1600 and ethereum up to $ 40-60 due to their poor scalability. This problem in these coins has existed for a long time and it did not lead to such a sharp decrease in their price. Why now this problem should become so acute? And what will change in the first half of next year? In my opinion, now other trends will come to the fore and above all that, regardless of the shortcomings of these coins, they grew in price in the last months of the year. I do not expect a very large increase in the price of Bitcoin, but the increase should be in November-December.

Suspect and sudden parabolic bull move began late april may 2017 which coincided with massive tether printing that has not yet seized, and the charts explicitly record natural global valuation and btc/eth valuation at that point in time.

Organic growth since early 2017 can disrupt a bottom at $1400, cutting it short at 3 or 4k, possibly spike/flash crash towards $1400.

Anything that has since transpired on Tether is irrelevant comparative to a $150b valuation error. No words or actions of this magnitude can prevent a resettlement of prices at the onset of anomaly. Only market consensus has the power to agree on fair value of crypto moving forward it's the same with stocks, wherever there is a historical gap, it has a tendency to be filled at some future event, however briefly. a 90% retracement is hardly newsworthy for Bitcoin, especially so when there is fundamental reason for it, be it rational or not.

In this analysis I have left out several dozen other indicators collected over summer and autumn from a broad spectrum of sources to form a holistic prediction as far as bear market continuation. Of course something disruptive could initiate a vertical bull run next week or month, my analysis is only to present a reason why and where to in case of continued downturn, and an approximate bear market end date based on a variable of factors.

I remain bullish long term, say 6 years from now at multi trillion global market cap and possibly quadrillion in two decades, with fundamental analysis on how this could feasibly materialize. I don't know if Bitcoin will retain 50% share at those valuations, probably not.

okay, but how do you quantify your perceptions about the market into price? i personally hate fundamental analysis because it's impossible to quantify outside of stocks. i stick to TA, which doesn't allow me to get too bearish until we see downwards range expansion. no sign of that yet.

how does current market sentiment or price action support your thesis? you can't just say "tether" and "scalability" and have that magically equate to a $1400-1800 bottom. why those levels?


i could see that too. i just don't think your case is very compelling.

NOISES ..... if your waiting for 1.4-1.8k BTC
Then better build a time machine or so

Market psychology is highly irrational and seek certainty wherever it can, especially in this brand new industry where uncertainty is rife, mixed with lots of opportunity for fraud.

Holistically, Tether is a small but crucial piece of market sentiment at present but it is not the only problem as scalability was proven to be a challenge last year with the manipulation of bitcoin fees and ether crypto game, and a deliberate slowing down of the network to lock investors from selling at high prices. This is fundamental issues that is not so easily forgotten and most people I can imagine are not familiar with Lightning network as a solution or that it does not introduce opportunity for exploitation and further bitcoin centralization by supernodes/banks.

I can easily see the top 2 cryptos retracing 2/3 of current prices while dragging the entire market down by another 50% mid term. This retracement and bearish continuation would then also be supported by fundamentals as mentioned with scalability and tether, before any major reversal can take place.

On top of this there is the Hodl mentality that is simply a race to wear everyone else out and this mentality is specific to crypto so the capitulation phase will just drag on and on in a particularly nasty shake out that will last forever in crypto time frames. People are still fresh in the game comparatively, the crash has only lasted for 10 months, there must be another 5-10 months of agony before capitulation and possibly the failure of Ethereum which will add a whole heap of market uncertainty and more importantly move crypto towards true decentralization similarly to fiat which has a variety of currencies issued by sovereign nations. Bitcoin as a singular world currency is doomed to fail and is anti thetical to the concept of decentralization. Bitcoin is incredibly corruptible as we have witnessed with futures, regulation, chinese manipulation, fraud hacks and the list goes on. Mount Gox sales will soon resume and accelerate the shake out which has yet to take place due to crypto specific hodl mentality.

why would the market need to "rediscover" prices from early 2017? it's possible, but cold you explain your logic? are you just saying support needs to be tested? if so, why is $1400-1800 significant from a technical perspective?

nobody cares about suspected tether fraud. if you're implying the entire bubble was built on tether fear, you might explain why the price doubled after bitfinex re-enabled fiat deposits/withdrawals.

We've been sitting at or around the current market cap for around 6 months now. It's hard to foresee any scenario in which there's a further 80% drop from these levels which ends with the market recovering. I believe we've already reached the bottom and now it's just a matter of waiting for the market to slowly reverse.

I like it, bring on that bearish sentiment. If there is one thing being able to speed up recovery, it's people fearing for lower levels which may lead to them dumping their coins right into stronger hand pockets. All the bullish bull run nonsense of the last months has done more harm than good, and people still think $20,000 is a realistic target before the end of the year, lol.

I wish you good luck waiting. Tether will only gain more power as time goes by, especially with how versatile it is. Another thing you completely discard is that there is so much Tether waiting on the side line to enter, that it will be put to work right at the moment prices start to plummet. 

If you are so confident of yourself, I wish you good luck shorting the market (if you dare).

These are really just one way of looking at your indicators but they are far from possible. Do you really believe there will be a 90%+ loss in market value inside a year ?

It is not looking likely at all, right now at around $6k+ levels it is stationed very well and the miners are not allowing it to drop any further. Your indicators can show you one thing but you are forgetting the one eternal truth that if people see that they can profit from something they will jump on it and when miners do not allow the price to go down further people will flock and buy even more and the price will not be allowed to fall that far. You can't see that on your indicators.

I went over some variables with technical indicators over the past years journal entries and it seems sentiment did not yet recover form tether and scalability uncertainty for the top 2 cryptos which can drag down the rest of the market mid term before reversal.

1. BTC towards $1400-1800
2. ETH between $40-50 possibly not recovering due to scalability problems
3. Global market cap between $40-60 billion
4. Bottom at these prices will be rapid, a few weeks at most, but then dragged out reversal momentum bulding first half 2019 before bull trend resuming.

The reason for this continued negative trend is, as I mentioned 1 year ago, that crypto market must rediscover prices from late april/may 2017 when suspected tether fraud began. Global valuation at that time was around $30B, then add organic growth on top of that number to discover new bottom.