Topic: TF2 Festive Crate Unboxing - 0.25BTC. Positive EV. (Read 1672 times)

What's this about?
In Team Fortress 2, for the holidays there are Naughty and Nice crates. Naughty crates have festive items in them. Some festive items are worth a lot, and generally the price of festive items increase (strange festive minigun doubled in a year, for example).

A naughty key costs $2.49 from the store, but I can get them cheaper from sellers. You can get the following items:

(Prices below are from the TF2 Spreadsheet)

Festive Holy Mackerel - Strange: ~9 normal keys, $12.6. Nonstrange: 1 normal key, $1.4
Festive Axtinguisher: Strange: ~8 normal keys, $11.2. Nonstrange: 2 normal keys, $2.8
Festive Buff Banner: Strange: ~10 normal keys, $14. Nonstrange: 2 normal keys, $2.8
Festive Sandvich: Strange: ~14 normal keys, $19.6. Nonstrange: 1.5 normal keys, $2.1
Festive Ubersaw: Strange: ~12 normal keys, $16.8. Nonstrange: 2 normal keys, $2.8
Festive Frontier Justice: Strange: ~8 normal keys, $11.2. Nonstrange: 2.33 normal keys, $3.26
Festive Huntsman: Strange: ~19 normal keys, $26.6. Nonstrange: 2 normal keys, $2.8
Festive Ambassador: Strange: ~8 normal keys, $11.2. Nonstrange: 2 normal keys, $2.8
Festive Grenade Launcher: Strange: ~20 normal keys, $28. Nonstrange: 2.66 normal keys, $3.72
Rare Unusual Item: Ranges from $15 or so to $2,000+. 1% chance.

Basically: Positive EV in short term, positive EV in long term. Histrionical trends for last years unusual items shows that the price of desired festives can double by next year's xmas.

All the festive items has a 11% chance. Every unbox will have a festive item (unless you are REALLY lucky and get a unusual). So as you can see you will make a lot of profit from strange items, and you will make profit from the majority of noncrate items. Crates are not free, they are 1 refined so about $0.50.

Price: 0.25 BTC (Crate and Key) pack. 0.3BTC if you want me to record me unboxing. You choose if you want me to sell it, or if you want the item, or if you want me to hold onto it and sell it next year for more profit. I'll pay you 100% of what I sell them for in BTC or paypal, whichever you prefer.