Topic: That was the dead cat bounce of the 2014 last quarter capitulation (Read 2413 times)
September 20, 2014, 04:43:29 AM
The term "Dead Cat Bounce" when referenced with Bitcoin is so 2011.
September 20, 2014, 04:00:49 AM
^ Or...
1. Grow some balls
2. Have some faith in your investment
3. Go enjoy your day
1. Grow some balls
2. Have some faith in your investment
3. Go enjoy your day
Have fun in the soup line, bro. Jesus.
Interesting take. So far dragonkillers approach would have yielded fantastic returns with zero effort until this year. Trading on the other hand means most people lose money despite having a good idea of the market direction (timing, leverage, see matthecat).
Your posts are generally reasonable newbie but you make the mistake (oft repeated on here) of assuming everyone is a get rich quick trader. Actually the opposite is true, most are holding bitcoin and simply speculating. I would guess most lurkers and posters are professionals with a tech interest.
"Trading on the other hand means most people lose money despite having a good idea of the market direction (timing, leverage, see matthecat)." This even applies for me until the past three or so weeks during which I've adjusted a bit and have made a modest return (about 15%... actually, that's great... but modest given how quickly the market can turn).
As for those who are long-term investors, I get it. That's just not me at this point (it was me a few months ago). It's definitely cool for hodlers to hodl if they think in the long-term the market is going to make a good bounce back. But, even a long-term investor checks back in on their investment occasionally, reassesses the situation, and has certain targets. I don't actually understand the sort of blind faith type of hodling. Maybe it'll pay off for them. Frankly, I hope it does. It's counter to my position, but I place fairly narrow stop losses so I don't really have much on the line.
It's not blind faith for me. I keep a watchful eye on the price, except when busy elsewhere.
I have alluded previously that bitcoin is a speculator and traders dream because it is thinly traded and makes huge % moves compared to other markets. I think it is clear that price leads sentiment. Newsflow is only price positive when the price is trending the same direction.
Being frank this year network infrastructure, company creation, VC funding, merchant integration are off the charts. Mining coin production may have outstripped exchange demand slightly which has resulted in a longer decline than previously after bubbles (a consequence of professional mining and higher market prices). This will definitely change with the next halving (q1 2016?) or the creation of an easily accessible ETF (could be anytime). Everyone crows on about consumer adoption but I suspect this will come after bitcoin is slightly more established as an investment class / store of value.
Sure I have stocks and real estate but bitcoin is definitely the most exciting part of my portfolio by a country mile. Hopefully I can reach 200 coins by the next halving..
September 20, 2014, 03:44:25 AM
^ Or...
1. Grow some balls
2. Have some faith in your investment
3. Go enjoy your day
1. Grow some balls
2. Have some faith in your investment
3. Go enjoy your day
Have fun in the soup line, bro. Jesus.
Interesting take. So far dragonkillers approach would have yielded fantastic returns with zero effort until this year. Trading on the other hand means most people lose money despite having a good idea of the market direction (timing, leverage, see matthecat).
Your posts are generally reasonable newbie but you make the mistake (oft repeated on here) of assuming everyone is a get rich quick trader. Actually the opposite is true, most are holding bitcoin and simply speculating. I would guess most lurkers and posters are professionals with a tech interest.
"Trading on the other hand means most people lose money despite having a good idea of the market direction (timing, leverage, see matthecat)." This even applies for me until the past three or so weeks during which I've adjusted a bit and have made a modest return (about 15%... actually, that's great... but modest given how quickly the market can turn).
As for those who are long-term investors, I get it. That's just not me at this point (it was me a few months ago). It's definitely cool for hodlers to hodl if they think in the long-term the market is going to make a good bounce back. But, even a long-term investor checks back in on their investment occasionally, reassesses the situation, and has certain targets. I don't actually understand the sort of blind faith type of hodling. Maybe it'll pay off for them. Frankly, I hope it does. It's counter to my position, but I place fairly narrow stop losses so I don't really have much on the line.
September 20, 2014, 03:35:55 AM
^ Or...
1. Grow some balls
2. Have some faith in your investment
3. Go enjoy your day
1. Grow some balls
2. Have some faith in your investment
3. Go enjoy your day
Have fun in the soup line, bro. Jesus.
Interesting take. So far dragonkillers approach would have yielded fantastic returns with zero effort until this year. Trading on the other hand means most people lose money despite having a good idea of the market direction (timing, leverage, see matthecat).
Your posts are generally reasonable newbie but you make the mistake (oft repeated on here) of assuming everyone is a get rich quick trader. Actually the opposite is true, most are holding bitcoin and simply speculating. I would guess most lurkers and posters are professionals with a tech interest.
September 20, 2014, 03:19:48 AM
^ Or...
1. Grow some balls
2. Have some faith in your investment
3. Go enjoy your day
1. Grow some balls
2. Have some faith in your investment
3. Go enjoy your day
Have fun in the soup line, bro. Jesus.
September 20, 2014, 03:00:13 AM
^ Or...
1. Grow some balls
2. Have some faith in your investment
3. Go enjoy your day
1. Grow some balls
2. Have some faith in your investment
3. Go enjoy your day
September 20, 2014, 02:32:01 AM
Yup I am cutting loose
I think if you are awake, watching this, and playing with any money that you really can't quite afford to lose (or that you have plans for) then you have to at this price. I mean, in the immediate it is either going to: (a) drop like a ton of bricks; (b) drop near, but not past, the previous low; or (c) it will go over 420 and rally... so I'd buy back in at $420.
My trading position:
1. Shorting with a stop loss at $420.0000000000000000001 (hahaha)
2. Once, and if, the price breaks $400 again then I will reset the stop at $400 or $405 so that I know I locked in at least a little profit.
3. Thereafter, watching intently to see if it cracks yesterday's lows. If it doesn't, then I'd be buying back in full force for a soft rally up to the $450 range. If it does crack yesterday's low, then I'll set up limit orders in the $320s range to catch a flash crash.
September 20, 2014, 02:15:32 AM
Yup I am cutting loose
September 20, 2014, 02:15:21 AM
Mixed thoughts. For a change, there was actually substantial volume on an uptick. I am kicking myself for being asleep while this was going down. A high volume rally is usually a true rally. BUT, notice we got denied at 420. This means that we'll at least retest the lows that we set and that the storm has not passed.
September 20, 2014, 02:08:39 AM
Oh no! Now everone will "loose" their monies. Final capitulation here we come. Bitcoin to 0.
September 20, 2014, 12:51:28 AM
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