Topic: The 2.5 million dollar Bitcoin (Read 1440 times)

  Bitcoin need more time to become more heavily traded between most of people. Such as the new currency of any in the world an example of the euro. Also it is need to add more features to be attractive to more people to trading.

i see bitcoin and fiat like i see the currency of one country before the euro come in play and the euro itself

so in the future you can simply view bitcoin liek the euro in comparison with old fiat currency that were used in europe, everything if this will ahppen will be price in bitcoin, and you will not need anymore to base it on USD or whatever

Most of the earnings from bitcoin will only be nominal.   That is to say, the value of bitcoin will appreciate much less then the price.    Bitcoin is not a get rich scheme, its not an investment, its not productive all by itself and all it does is transmit value globally quickly cheaply, so its base value is much more flat then say Buffet's shares and his clever industry.
   Here is a famous photo that can bend peoples minds, its not that 100 dollars isnt alot and the car is being sold to settle large debts that will bankrupt him, make him homeless and so 100 is substantial in this photo.  After 1929 when this photo was taken the value of currency dropped gigantically as literally the government confiscated any right to stay outside printed debt notes.   Today we all own promises and debt, we dont own value and definitely not fixed amounts of an asset (some own land but that isnt currency) just paper with writing by politicians



http://www.dollartimes.com/inflation/inflation.php?amount=1&year=1929

So 1929 he was asking for 100 dollars or 5 ounces of gold, that price was the same for those 3 things, gold, notes, car.      If you want 5 ounces now, its $6,000.    
So if we assume that same strange change in price happens to bitcoin, it was 100 dollars per coin when I first started mining so I'll take that and if we assume after the QE programs unwind in a dramatic fashion just like 1929 the system unwound and giant government measures took over, bitcoin should be over 6,000 a coin.    

My projection is to say the nominal price changed and nothing else, just like the 1929 gold at 100 dollars is exactly the same gold as now yet priced 60x higher.   So if you then want to say Bitcoin has grown since I joined this forum and was mining, all this price increase to $800 is value of bitcoin utility. Its all valid value in this price, transactional economy of bitcoin supports 800 not a bubble or brief speculation on failing dollar by Chinese etc.
  Then we must take the 6,000 and increase it eight times over the plain $100  and you have your equivalent post FED QE bubble unwinding, politics messes up like it did the 30's whatever event occurs blame Bernanke or whoever but inflation happens; after the dust settles you have your grand bitcoin price per coin of - $48,000 per coin

Market cap just over 1 trillion if Im able to multiple by 21m correctly, thats a much fairer idea of what if bitcoin took over dollar usage every day at least for some of the broad population

Bitcoin reaching 250,000 is not going to happen soon but even if it happen you could be sure the government will try to impose a special tax of 90% because it will be unfair we obtain such big earnings.

It's probably more realistic to think of Bitcoin more as a method of payment and store of value than an actual currency. I think it will be used along with fiat similar to how credit cards, PayPal, and western union are used.

Yep if bitcoin is a success then its because it wasnt tied to one country, or one bias in one section of the global economy.    Just allowing people to transfer value without political interference that is the useful and valuable thing that helps bitcoin price.    Theres got to be genius of enterprise all over the globe and tons of them are miles from any kind of wealth, we are losing the talent of those people and the wealth they would produce in their economies if given a chance.   True capitalism is competitive and you have to win that battle to gain the value, our system now is too biased to the standing powers, too many idle rich.   Bitcoin has massive velocity which I believe also benefits distribution and wealth production to those who start off small, in end everybody benefits if capital is attributed to the hardest working parts of economies wherever in the world.  That is the ideal

I agree with the second poster, the OP is too absolute.   Bitcoin will not be 40 trillion in that way, forget dollars now if you like but dont forget every other currency that also can hold value.   It wont slide over to just one thing, if nothing else think of the previous dollar the old one before the Federal reserve of 1913 when a note was a promise of gold if you wanted it.   That also was a monetary standard and that idea can also rise, its very likely we see adjustment to greater variety not less.  I hope so anyway

I mentioned this earlier, but I should say this again...

I AM taking every country's currency into account (along with the value of everyone's checking accounts), I'm just putting that # in terms of USD to reflect it as one number.

Actually while fiat is plagued by inflation, goods like gold are not.
Somebody said that it's not known how much gold is lost or hidden. That's pretty much the same with Bitcoin.
Only a small percentage of gold is actually traded. And how much Bitcoin is in cold storage and paper wallets?

The analogy starts looking even better than yesterday

And I don't want to trade the gold for Bitcoin. I don't have safe storage for the gold   The calculation only tells that 500k$/BTC is not such an unrealistic possibility, just a lot more patience is needed.

All the gold on earth in exchange for something that fits on a microsd card? That will never happen.

And that is exactly the point:

I don't expect it to fully replace fiat (not any time soon at least)--but this is the potential market that's at stake... and quite frankly, a lot more.  The value of derivative investments around the world is in the QUADRILLIONS.

I wish that was true but facts are out there for every one to see, USD is a paper money that 97% of all countries can not survive without it and any country or economy tries to resist will suffer painfully, however alternative to dollar is euro but that is not doing so well given recent events in green continent.
The important thing for bitcoin isn't adoption at a large scale but people believing and willing to exchange it for their valuable property something that has almost equal value and price worldwide like gold, fiat and as long as people have faith in bitcoin I'm sure increase in value will happen eventually.

U.S. dollars have little to do with bitcoin anymore.

Sharing the opinion of other users above, I do not think that reaches this level, the rulers will not wait and watching Bitcoin take the place of local currencies, what I think will happen will be the same create the own cryptocurrency. I hope I am wrong and Bitcoin becomes the world currency.

Right now we compare the price of bitcoins and value it according to USD as our basis. Maybe in the future we would compare gold and USD and other currency to bitcoin and not the other way around like today. People would look to how much bitcoin is my USD worth today like that. That would be the day that I'd love to see.

In fact, it wouldn't be any more meaningful

Since less than 20% out of ~200k metric tonnes of gold that was mined through history is potentially tradable. The rest is used in jewelry and electronics as well as stashed away for good. On the other hand, these comparisons are pointless as such since they are based on the current price of Bitcoin and evaluated in the same currency that Bitcoin is priced in (as per OP). A proper way of doing such estimates should be based on the global GDP in physical terms per number of coins in circulation

It is an expected value of bitcoin in future based on main stream adoption of bitcoin payment system. For that, bitcoin needs to come out of 'investment category' to move into 'momentary system'. But investment characteristic is what currently helping bitcoin to evolve in mass adoption.

The big reasons for bitcoin to have huge value is possibilities of world wide adoption. So, not just networth of USD, every country's currency also must be taken into consideration.

Moreover, not just world currencies, WU/PayPal kind of business potential net worth also should be considered as an influencing factor for bitcoin value determinations.

I am not good in analyzing the market of bitcoin but I just follow what others said and do some research to confirm. If it will reach that level then I am sure I will be millionaire by that time. I wills start storing my bitcoin now then.

Good analysis but I don't see Bitcoin replacing fiat, Bitcoin is not designed for everyone just like Gold even the 21 million tokens speak for itself, $15 billion market valuation of BTC is nothing to these banks and can easily take over the network, someone even mentioned that Chinese government can decided to nationalise the mining companies in China and take over the network.

it is so simple, bitcoin needs adoption. and for adoption we need time.
if that happens price will go up because simply there is a limited number of coins available. and as supply stays the same and demand goes up, price rises.

but for that to happen we need bitcoin to stay alive for a long time, it needs to fix some problems such as scaleability and the way consensus works in my opinion.

Fiat currency management is not simple where calculations happen in linear fashion. Though bitcoin may have good future, there is no chance that it will replace or compete against fiat currency. Forget about fiat currency becoming worthless, it not going to happen, period. Current price level of bitcoin is around ~ $800 to ~ $900. It may take a while for bitcoin to reach $250000 level. Who knows what governments have utilized blockchain to turn table in their own favor.

There is not a chance of that happening but I appreciate the effort to pull of those numbers, but even if it will never happen it show to use the tremendous potential bitcoin has for growth.

you have a very good imagination and I expect this to happen in the future so we are all rich and we have a happy life.

Oh my god, good analysis there. If that would happen, bitcoin being 2.5 million dollars a piece, that would really make people on here millions already. But that is still far fetched. As the value of all USD fiat currency in circulation cannot be equated equal to bitcoins. As the whole USD in circulation represent a country's gold reserve and other things. Unlike bitcoin, which is only driven by supply and demand.

I want to analyze and answer the question however it is no longer necessary since there isnt a single possibility that bitcoin will replace fiat currency. If you didnt notice there are post about the news that the banks are integrating blockchain technology in the banking system. They are not just developing their transactions but actually they are on the verge of creating a fiat digital currency. With their influence and large market it is a clear fact that they will also dominate the world of digital currency. Bitcoin chance to be a legal tender has lost along with the wind.

I do not think they will wait and die and cede 100% market share, just defining the potential.  Quite frankly, I think these fiat blockchains or perhaps a dark horse alt coin pose the largest threat to bitcoin.

However, bitcoin will still remain superior to any fiat blockchain due to it's universal nature and ability to bypass state manipulation.

Continued adoption of trend makers in Silicon Valley is critical for mass adoption.  Other factors like economic instability, hyper inflation, remittances, etc., will all be ancillary drivers, as well.

Don't tell me the altcoin in your mind is LTC? I laughed enough now tell me another joke. not even bitcoin can someday worth more than $50k at most.
Problem with OP here is that he thinks the world is only US though I know that when I sell bitcoin locally they first convert the worth of it into fiat(dollar) and then pay me my local currency but I don't pay any fees doing it, so basically I'm selling bitcoin for my local currency.

Do you believe OP that banks and government, so far keeping a 'wait and see' strategy will cross the fingers and wait to die? I am sure not. Some big countries UK, China, Russia has already started to experiment with blockchain so as to create their digital coins https://www.ft.com/content/f15d3ab6-750d-11e6-bf48-b372cdb1043a. Blockchain is a gift for them. Fiat will not crash but will change face; from paper to digital where banks on the one hand will dramatically reduce their costs and on the other easily will control their customers money.

In this case (bitcoin costing 2.500.000$), each satoshi would cost 0.025$, I believe that is the purpose of bitcoin on long term and it will happen, if not with bitcoin it will happen with another crypto-currency, an altcoin.
Bitcoin has many houses because it was designed to cost a lot and work on long term as super-valorized currency. However I don't think all the money world will be crypto-currency, fiat will exist too.

500k is right (approx 8 trillion in gold/16 million BTC volume)

I actually was taking the whole world into account, just reflecting the total value in terms of USD

And yes, I agree it's an incredibly speculative that it will emerge as the world's sole currency, but if it WERE to happen, this is likely an accurate valuation.

I believe that it is actually best if it is an alternative currency same thing as you think.  The realization of it being used as currency as easy as fiat is yet to be met.  As of now I think people have trouble adopting Bitcoin because of the complexity of using it in a normal non-computer literate people.  But I guess the time of computer illiteracy will fade soon since new generation today are well adept with computers, so maybe Bitcoin needs another time, the next generation will surely access Bitcoin easily thus making its adoption much easier.  

Such a calculation could be more meaningful if done for gold (or similar) instead of fiat.
So... how much does all the gold worth?
It may get you with less than 100k/BTC, or even under 10k...

Edit: after a quick Google, if I calculated right, it would still be 500k$/BTC. WOW.

I also agree with you, there is no way that Bitcoin will replace fiat money.  There will be no stupid governement that will accept bitcoin and trash their national currency.  Bitcoin will remain an alternative and this only means majority of people will be using fiat.  And that statistics of all people using bitcoin is a wishful thinking.

well first of all your IF is a big IF that is not going to happen.

also you are restricting your calculation to only US, you should take into consideration that the whole world is using bitcoin not US so you have to consider all the fiat currencies in the circulation not just USD.

but also at the same time i don't like this comparison because as i said fiat is not going anywhere. and in the end not all people are going to use bitcoin but they are all using fiat.

It's a nice thought, but you don't want bitcoin to replace fiat, that would be the end of bitcoin, here's why:

• If fiat becomes worthless, those countries and corrupt politicians and bankers are going to seek to control bitcoin, they'll figure out a way to ruin it
• If fiat becomes worthless, those countries and governments have probably fallen apart and we'd be in the midst of lawless times. It could even impact ones ability to have consistent electricity, which is required to transact on the blockchain

The best thing for bitcoin is for it to remain a secure alternative to fiat currency, not a dominant alternative.

Another way to think about the potential for adoption is to look at how many businesses exist in the world or a country compared to how many of those businesses accept bitcoin for payment. Bitcoin adoption is driven by people's realization that it can be used as currency just as easily as fiat.

There's 5 trillion USD worth of hard fiat currency in circulation.

There's 40 trillion USD worth of liquid fiat currency total (currency + checking accounts)

A 40 trillion market cap for bitcoin would mean that BTC = $2,500,000

This 40 trillion represents the whole market that bitcoin is "competing" in against fiat currency (and alt coins), and doesn't take into account BTC's use as a store of value--gold, for example, has a 4 trillion USD value.  So if fiat currency became worthless, that's the bottom for BTC (bottom because it doesn't include potential market cap hikes from the derivatives market and institutional $ investments that are to come)