Topic: The Art Of Investing - Michael Burry (Read 3826 times)

I have seen the movie "The Big Short" and it is amazing on how Michael Burry finds about this housing market collapse and taking a bold move even when he lost all the support from his firm. He is a legend for sure!

Technical Analysis don't work all the time, I mean it may work sometimes but never fall back and depend completely on it. Trading has a lot of gambling and speculation element in it. If you got solid, logical reasons to justify your trades and is ready to handle the worst outcome from your action, then you should trade.

Michael Burry, as mentioned in my OP, did thorough analyses of his stocks making big spreadsheets comparing all kind of metrics.

If you would do the same for cryptos it would mean you keep track of all kind of important parameters, such as amount of transactions per day, amount of users, ratio of spenders vs savers, amount of merchants, unique utility if any, inflation rate, growth history of all these parameters etc. and compare this to it's value to judge whether it is relatively cheap or not.

I am too lazy for such an endeavor, hence my relative poor performance compared to a man like him.


I'm not sure what he thinks of Bitcoin and altcoins, I have not found any information.

I think he would like the growth rate in amount of transactions that can be seen in Bitcoin but would likely also notice the lack of growth in transactions in most altcoins!
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-eth-ltc-dash-doge-ppc-nmc-blk.html#log



On the other hand, some quotes of him that can be readily applied to crypto as well, especially to Altcoins vs Bitcoin, NXT/Ardor included


"Information is not perfect. Volatility does not define risk. Markets are not efficient. The individual is adaptable."

“Volatility does not determine risk. Volatility is on sale because 99% of the institutions out there are doing their best to avoid it.”

"I will always choose the dollar bill carrying a wildly fluctuating discount rather than the dollar bill selling for a quite stable premium"

"Investing in speculative and overpriced assets simply to diversify against an array of external shocks is simply irrational given the odds."

No still far away to live in the bahamas and yes they are scam, it's just as good as any other crypto to make money on them (converted back to bitcoin)

What are you saying? That you can now afford to go to the Bahamas and buy a Lamborgini just like the ICO scammers? Or do you think that the ICO and ICO by proxy schemes like NXT - Ardor are not scams? If not then why did you convert back to Bitcoin and even doubling it as you said?

Basically it is just because of thin market cap. When comparing bitcoin market cap to any stock's market cap, bitcoin must seem as a penny stock. Only very few whales are controlling most of the cryptocoin movements, that must be a the prime reason for the failure of technical analysis.

Technical analysis are always subject to news and events. We need to react for recent news whereas when single group of people 'controlling' the whole market, it is literally equivalent to the deciding factors (such as news) are more frequently changing and affecting price movements.

I doubled my holdings too selling my nxt at the exit of the rising wedge ( 5000sat), but yes, someone could call that a nice ponzy or exit scam (how to sell your dying token for a more than fair price). Proof of burn or not doesn't change, since usually both tokens value additioned will get the same value as if only one was keeped. (ETC+ETH, NXT+ARDOR = equal value of dad before split (or split news))

Only the people who organize a successful ICO have the money to go to the Bahamas and buy Lamborginis.
Most of the rest here are people like you and me who can only get scraps if there is any available.

Just look at the Ardor ICO by proxy. They have effectively doubled their holdings simply by creating tokens and let it have the same amount with their NXT holdings. Why did they not make the participation use proof of burn?

lol that nonsense : TA is made to picture emotions ...

I have seen so many people trying to compare Stock and Crypto trading, both may be similar in some way but there is a thick line separating them, in crypto you only have selected few of these tokens been driven by fundamentals and I have seen several times when technical chart analysis failed, it is an emotional thing

Why are you even there and not in the bahamas if you've got the skills of blurry 

It is funny that you cited Dr. Michael Burry. If he was investing and trading in the cryptosphere he would be short on a lot of altcoins. With the speed and quantity of the creation of ICO's, platforms and altcoin blockchains it would be easy for a wise trader such as him to see thru it all and view all this as one giant ponzi scheme and casino hybrid. Trading cryptocoins is all a zero sum game.

By the way how is Ardor and NXT doing?

For all you crypto nerds, some quality stuff:


It's a rare individual that is trully good at investing. They are rational, have a lot of fundamental metrics that compare the price with intrinsic value showing undervalue/overvalue, for example for cryptos, market cap vs amount of transactions, and/or technical indicators that confirm bull/bear market trend and reversals, for example 50 day moving avg crossing the 200 day.

They leave emotions out, don't become a fan of their positions, usually don't let positions become too big. Only when all fundamental and technical indicators scream that there is an opportunity they may allow a bigger exposure but will lock in profits rather quick once prices change. They are constantly data mining for better opportunities and diversify over a bunch of them.


I fail on mutiple fronts but this guy, Michael Burry, is the real deal. He made money with value stocks even during the dotcom crisis when the market corrected -30%, he was up 50%, and became a legend when he started shorting mortgages before the credit crises hit hard in 2008, making 200% while the market collapsed -50%.

He then also closed his fund, cashing out after a big win is usually the best move. His average return was around 30% per year. His criticisms of the government and the fed who caused one crises after another lead not to gratitude but an FBI investigation. His story is very well portrayed in the fascinating movie: 'The Big Short'.


Here you see him speaking: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fx2ClTpnAAs