Topic: The Bearish Case for Bitcoin (Read 211 times)

The bearish case for Bitcoin is mostly about government regulating it out of existence and usage of general public. We are currently right in the middle of this as El Salvador has decided to make it legal tender and several South American countries are planning to do so. The next step will come from other international organizations dealing with these countries. The BIS has already declared that they will come up with CBDCs. Yet, if actual countries start endorsing Bitcoin, a consensus will continue to evolve.

If we move past this step of national adoption without too much pushback from international organization, i think any remaining bear case would be finished.

Other reasons like technical failure, lack of block rewards etc are factors that will be the weak points for every other contender too.

I have known books related to blockchain but never heard of any book which is about bitcoin. As per the title, it seems the book will be about the bitcoin price prediction. Is it so ?

Here's a recent paper from Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin, Currencies, and Bubbles

It's mostly opinion and contains no real insights.

It's like the author already put everything there is about BTC from genesis, history or money, trading and adoption, no need to buy the book anymore. People change their minds from bullish to bear predicting the price to be $10K because they see the pattern.  


Bitcoin wouldn't work for someone who doesn't have Bitcoin, that's how it is. El Salvador airdropped BTC because they make sure it will work for all. I can only see price dropped to more than 50% since the ATH because it's giving everyone a chance to have some BTC.

No books that really prove a bear case.

Lots of people can list so called reasons to stop 🛑 the bull and become an endless bear.

Biggest reason is a new math yet to be discovered simply solves the encryption.

But understand that would crush bank and all securities as they also use encryption.

Second reason and this is tough but Btc and ltc and doge are all very much the same idea.

Think car
Think Rolls Royce = Btc
Think Kia = Ltc
Think Toyota = Doge

They are all cars and while one cost more the other makes more sales.

So does the Rolls company turn the profit that Toyota company.

No volume of Toyota mean more profit.

I feel that doge could copy a lot of Btc protocol such as an LN network and it could win out over Btc.

Not that I see doge better right now. But if it had the Ln network and a few other protocols it would be very close to btc.

Doge has descending inflation
Btc has reverse inflation  or fixed max of 21 million
cash has endless inflation.

The economic argue of a descending inflation vs endless inflation makes doge look okay.

here is what i mean by descending inflation.

say doge prints 1 billion coins a year.

year 1 = 1 billion
year 2 = 2 billion a 100% inflation rate.
year 3 = 3 billion a  50% inflation rate.
year 4 = 4 billion a 33% inflation rate.
year 5 = 5 billion a 25% inflation rate.

to year 101 which is

101 billion vs 100 billion this is only 1% inflation.

There is a strong economic argument that is better in the long run than a flat 21 mill coins that will run out in 100 years or so.

I will be dead 💀 in 100 years.

Actually more like 30 years. So I wont see it play out.

To me I see a properly run and developed doge network could hurt btc or maybe they run hand and hand.

I like doge less than btc but I do like its descending inflation rate.

As time goes on the 1billion a year becomes trival.

I think its 10 billion a year but its is the same idea.

I doubt such exists, as I'm on the look for legitimate bearish cases too. All we pretty much have is critics on social media who obviously made zero to little research. You know, the "Bitcoin is slow", "wastes electricity", "centralized because China", type of critics.

I don't think you are going to find much because the people that do the research on Bitcoin are generally pro-Bitcoin. There is not much incentive to show that something as insignificant as Bitcoin won't work.

Despite that, I have come across a couple academic papers over the years describing why Bitcoin may not be sustainable. For example: Carlsten, et al. On the Instability of Bitcoin Without the Block Reward. 2016

Nocoiner bears are very emotional, they present their opinions as facts and simply state that Bitcoin will go to zero because they feel that it's bad. There's actually not much good bearishness about Bitcoin, but this doesn't mean that Bitcoin is flawless and will have a guaranteed bright future. Things like the warnings of Core devs that Bitcoin is an experimental techonology that could fail in the future is an example of positive bearishness. It's a reminder to never go all in on something that still is considered an experiment.

It is just the author view.Bitcoin is already working and has a whole lot more benefits than risks.You can check for books related to Bitcoin in Amazon and Ebay,however just browsing through different sections here in the forum will give you enough insight that you may not need the books at all.

Vijay Boyapati wrote a book called "The Bullish Case for Bitcoin". A summary of the book can be found below. One of my favorite readings when I was researching.

A lot of good books and resources out there explaining bitcoin and the case for it.

Any recommendations of books or resources on the bearish case for bitcoin? Not after media FUD, just want to find some detailed resources on the why bitcoin potentially won't work out or the risks behind it.

https://vijayboyapati.medium.com/the-bullish-case-for-bitcoin-6ecc8bdecc1