Topic: The Bitcoin halving's 3 possible scenarios. (Read 687 times)

You are somewhat right on this one. After halving event the price havent moved out since but doesnt mean that it wont really make in further days or week since we do know that effects might happen on longer aspect
which isnt something new yet this had been the case that happened in the past.For now we should need to wait and shouldnt really be on a hurry on seeing things up and its better to utilize these
current prices because we wont know if these would be the last digits that we would able to see before we would shoot up.

I voted for the boring scenario because that's what exactly is happening right now, the price move up and down, but the good thing is the upwards price is moving two steps upwards, it's only a matter of time before we reach the $10 k mark, great time to still accumulate,I'm hoping the price to double before the start of the third quarter.

Just like the majority of votes says, it seems that the boring scenario is what we're dealing with. There are some fluctuations, but nothing that couldn't have happened without halving. The short-term affect is not present. Maybe it's the pandemic anxiety and the halving FOMO crossing each other out. As for the long-term effect which is something people usually mean when they say that last halving brought BTC to the new ATH, I think that the more time goes by, the more factors that can influence the price appear, so it becomes next to impossible to tell whether halving played a major role. So we can see Bitcoin rising at the beginning of 2021, but there would not be a consensus on whether the halving had something to do with it.

It is cool that we managed to go back up and that is really valuable honestly. I was thinking maybe people could have been disappointed when something like this happens because people do expect a lot of moves. I remember from Libra to Bakkt there was a lot of hype and people bought a lot of bitcoin and none of that happened people sold and price went down a lot.

I was afraid that the halving would have been something like that as well. Thankfully it wasn't like that at all and right now it is getting a lot better right now and price reached to 10k almost and that's cool. Of course there could still be some lows and some highs as well, I don't know what will happen in the future at all but I know that we are doing good right now and that is kinda good enough for me.

I'll choose the FOMO as  the one  that will likely happen, FOMO  because the halving will create a significant event in the community and those new people coming in will believe what old-timers will say to them and that is to buy as the  price is going to skyrocket, people are looking on the chart and they are comparing the first two and that's what likely to happen if there's no pandemic now, we are in a different scenario and the market will be different from what we are seeing now

Funny thing is after 3 days, the bulls at least are trying to push the price into the five digits again. So I don't know if this is boring as the price increased 5%-6%. But I guess this is just short-term, we still don't know how miners are going to react. There could still be FOMO, but I don't know how far can we get, reaching $10k again will be a good gauge.

And checking back in here 3 days later, I can confirm, all of us who voted for boring won and continue to be right. We should all get prizes for finally getting crowd wisdom right in this forum.

I'll admit I held some small belief I could be wrong, especially when we touched 10k last Friday. Would have been happy to been proven wrong. Still, next difficulty adjustment coming up, and every step from there could clue us in on how miners are thinking.

So in conclusion you mean it will go up, down or sideways? Could happen.

haha, why only a newbie? have you lost your passion for Bitcoin  

I more agree with the Boring scenario at halving this time, the attractiveness of investors may be has diverted because covid is happening

It is also what I think related to this halving. People will buy Bitcoins several days or weeks before halving and once there is a big increase during halving, those people will probably try to sell their Bitcoins, then there is a huge drop in price. Actually I don't assume it is a panic sell but a selling time that the people have already planned and predicted to take advantage of Bitcoin halving hype.

"Boring scenario" won the poll, and it was truly a boring scenario. Everything WAS priced in with the halving event already known to be four years after 2016's halving.

Any market FOMO from here will be of unknown causes.

There is a lot that has happened but I think we are in Boring Part of this phase. The OP considered everything that could possibly happen and for me, it did. Right now, all I can say is Now What?

It's like the tweet of the official Binance account.
I think this is the best mindset that we could have, people involved in Bitcoin should have too. Having the Long Term mindset that people should have. It's not wise to have to speculate on what could happen to Bitcoin's price because no one can predict it, but the discussion should always be what could we do in the long term to help the price move up. In the short term, accumulate more.

Well it was the scenario that I didn't expect to happen. I assumed that after the halving either we will get a dump or it would trade sideways and instead we got a dump right before the halving. Looking at the hourly charts it looks like the low $8xxx area might be holding so we might actually in a few days break out of this mid $8xxx trading and head back to the $10K+ but that dump from $9600 was pretty ugly to say the least.

All over crypto twitter and reddit people who were new to bitcoin and invested are calling it a scam already because it lost so much value in such little time. Many people bought at $10K or so and were forced to watch almost 20% of their investment plunge in a day or so. So not looking well on that front. Either way we will see how it will play out for the remainder of this week and month.

So,,, are we in something else territory now? I feel like we are at the totally boring moment phase. And this is what I have been saying will happen. Every time we hype something up, it turns to boring shit. Bitcoin suffered the altcoin moment. Hyped to max effect then plop nothing happened.

The price retrace at $8300 and it bounced back because it is a major support, right now the price is trailing at short term dynamic support which is the 20 MA. There is also no sign of momentum at all even if the Halving is already finished, I think there is a delay as long as the price will not breakdown expect a rally that will happen. The RSI also is looking good because it is already bounce on its support. We should just control our expectation because anything can happen especially in the very volatile market.

Dont expect for any FOMO thing but rather im anticipating for some another Boring market situation.Well, in talks of long term aspects then we would all like to have that increasing prices
but if we do just talk on the particular halving situation then im not really that expecting much.I do even believe that the hype is already over when we do hit up 10k and now is the time for
another sideways movement for upcoming months or onwards.I do prefer this way than seeing a market thats bubble-like just like what happened in 2017 where it do increase up too fast
but same goes on how fast it did make a hard dump.

I expect a FOMO situation. Bitcoin has had two halvings each bringing significant rise in the market price, in the long-run. The first time could be called a coincidence, but after the second halving which sparked the bull run that led to the current ATH, there's enough basis to attract people to invest in Bitcoin purely on the idea of a halving charge. This would attract a lot of new investors, who just hear about a significant event upcoming, and they think; this could be a chance to make profit. This would likely push the price short term. Creating more interest and more FOMO. I also expect there would be a correction period in-between.

The panic sell already happened a couple days before the halving. People got too excited about an incoming post-halving panic sell and did it early. The FOMO event will happen as a slow build over months, I don't see a huge spike about to happen as we just gained from $3k to $9k the past 8 weeks. So probably the boring scenario, where it'll probably bottom out here in the 8000s or maybe even high 7000s then move back to 9000s and play around in the 8k-10k range for a bit, slowly building upwards in spurts as the supply pressure of the halving slowly builds.

I expect the prices to increase slowly if not all of the sudden. I also expect many investors to buy the crypto for the next few months consdi3ring the global economy and this will yield the more demand and as halving will reduce the mining of bitcoin the price will grow eventually. Though it may take some time but do expect the prices to rebound from this level.

I like the 3 scenarios you share with us, i mean any of them are possible, but i think we should focus more on this point because i think we will see a big number of miners turning off after the halving. I'm not sure how will that affect the price, but if those mining farms sell their bitcoin that will be a massive dump.

Looks like #1 is happening already.
FOMO.
I thought it will be a boring week.
But look at the sections here and it is filled with threads about the halving.
Members are excited and I like that, it might help for a while. Asking different kind of question and are still on 50-50 if they will really buy at the expensive price.

But, there is always the truth in which traders will sell. When they reach that line another dump will happen.

I chose the huge panic selling. All I see is news about people hoping to see bitcoin price increase after the halving. But won't understand that if they stop buying bitcoin, the price will not increase as expected. After the halving and what they expected of bitcoin to do, it doesn't happen. They will likely sell their coins putting the bitcoin price at risk. I hope they start buying again after the price has started increasing weak later after the halving.

Today we already expect only the third halving in the history of Bitcoin, but previous halving showed a really very good and positive impact on bitcoin pricing.  therefore, many cryptocurrency users expect only positive results from the upcoming halving.  It seems to me that all negative statements regarding halving and global problems among miners are speculative.
one way or another, halving is designed to provoke a shortage of bitcoin in the market, which means that this will lead to an inevitable increase in bitcoin prices.  and based on this, Bitcoin mining will again be profitable over time.  The main thing is that Bitcoin holders, upon reaching a certain maximum, do not begin to sell massively in order to earn a lot and very quickly.

I believe not immediately, IF there are some of "them" left.


Weak-hands have already left during the crash to $3,600 - $3,800 in my opinion. Plus everything is already priced in - the halving, AND the "crash" after halving. Individuals from both groups must have already bought or sold.

Buy the rumor, sell the news.

Lots of people are piling in to get rich from the halving. They will sell as soon as their expectations aren’t met causing downward pressure on the price. Once the weak hands have all left the price rise can continue. Expect at least another year before you see the upward price explosion people seem to think will come next week.

Do you believe the "new money" would come in mere days, or hours before the halving? I would debate that the halving is already known four years before, and that the "new money" have already came in, and already priced it in.

can i choose 4 of the choices on the poll op ? number 1 is the fomo event or fear of missing out  .

people will try to accumulate right now or when the halving is getting close because they believe price will rise  and then number 2 is the panic selling will occur during and after halving because price finally pump at these times and there goes number 3 the price will dump so so it wil gonnabe boring again . lastly number 4 , i cant think of something else 

^ IF, there is probably no panic selling event after the halving for most of the traders already aware that bitcoin's price will still pump and they will surely hold to their asset until the market recovers and begin trading at the time they think it is already manageable to them. Let assume that newbies probably experience fomo because evidently it shows the slow movement on bitcoin's price. At the end of the day, it may be a make or break for investors depending on their skills in handling scenarios like this halving. You have a good point of view OP, nevertheless, we will see to it what will happen next after the halving.

I'm into boring scenario

Since I didn't feel the halving effect for now compare to past few years of halving days since whenever the even close by the price stretching up but for now since there us pandemic the people are now not on investments that's why we see a rough start from the market.

I love the crowd so far, voted for what turned out to be the majority (7 votes) because yes man, we've had past more impactful halvings already happen and shit didn't go hit the fan (in a good way) until months later.

We's gonna see a lot of yawnfest nothings in the next few weeks at least, if not months.

Definitely not a short-term precursor. @Exolix: even less effect if you do Covid-19 considerations. People will be squeezed for money and jobs. Buying bitcoin last on their mind. Selling it maybe to pay bills.

Do these scenarios take into account the pandemic? Well, you know, a new variable has appeared in the equation that matters. Covid- 19 affects the financial, physical, emotional state of bitcoin owners. And is it possible to somehow take this into account?


p.s.voted for The Boring Scenario

For sure. The thing that makes things harder in this case is how high can bitcoin actually get due to the hype? While I don't think there will be much upward price movements in the short term, I could definitely be wrong. I thought bitcoin's ceiling was at around 8k in the bull run of 2017 so I don't really trust my crystal ball LOL. One thing's for sure, Bitcoin surprises us from time to time.

I don't think so. Just always remember, in Bitcoin nothing is impossible. Expect the unexpected, for me I am worried because of the panic selling event or in positive side for me is Boring scenario. Huge panic selling event is possible, but for me if this will happen, this is just a short time, like a huge candle wicks.

So "up, down, or sideways?"

This halving is shaping up much like 2016. The May-June 2016 pump felt very similar. There was a very significant dip afterwards.

Going with that theme, in all likelihood there will be a "sell the news" element at play, given the amount of hype we're seeing. My Twitter feed and the Speculation forum have been completely overtaken by it. Mainstream media coverage too.

There are also significantly more leveraged longs now than there were in April, which may provide additional selling pressure if the rally sputters out.

Exactly, BTCs main story will continue only after the Halving right now it's slowly moving up might be because of FOMOs. After Halving there will be a serious panic sell the reason is people don't have enough money as the lockdowns are still in progress in many countries, well if this happens the price of BTC will be affected very badly. And like you said we can expect some positive signs by 2021..

I've also thought about this too. But this scenario itself, also has an opposing possibilities. While new influx of money can definitely go into the markets due to the stimulus checks, but we could also argue that the last thing that people would own in times off economic uncertainty are volatile assets like bitcoin. Again, it boils down to "no one knows" lmao.

The only scenario that is unlikely to occur is the huge panic selling event. We all know that Bitcoin already capitulated when the huge flash crash occurred when stock market falls due to the corona and we've seen the rise of Bitcoin keyword searches and wallet hodlers and im expecting it would not be a boring event.

We surely know that it will lead to an increase in the long run but to the scenario of how much it can go down before the rise, is not predictable for me. Therefore it is better for me to hodl until I get to my selling point at $15,000. At that point, I think the initial pump can have a drop.

There will possibly be a pump above $10,000 in the next week, if that happens then the price will probably have a bit of a dump shortly after the halving. We’ll then slowly see the price rise throughout the rest of 2020 & then see new highs in 2021.

I would bet that there is a big percentage that this halving could be the Boring Scenario because of the covid effect.
But there is also a possibility of a FOMO because of covid people would try to use crypto to earn online so there could be a batch of fresh money for the market.
But the FOMO would only be for the newbie's not for us who have been in crypto game for long.

Just came back to lurk after ages to read the sentiment as the Halving approaches
Personally I voted for the boring scenario, realistically I see it being the bull run scenario a significant amount of money has been printed to battle COVID leading to a Cyprus reignition point that caused the last rally.
The potential crisis with the entire economic system has not played out yet and we may also see shifts to the current hegemony that are pro bitcoin and crypto. China just started its blockchain system a few weeks ago so interesting times.
That said these are a bit long term in outlook compared to reality and as it is I don't see it occurring for a while yet.

Bullish, however, is my personal opinion based on the speculation of new money entering into Bitcoin as people search up the Bitcoin halving and to be honest ... with the world in a social distance state the attention this event may attract and the people who are speculating the markets will bring a lot more people into the game.
Just a new influx of money from people who receive cheques and are financially stable enough to invest will cause a rally.
Will they get the accounts settled and prepared by next week well that's the real question after the halving will there be a short term drop on the news and a rally after hard to say kind of fun that way though.

New money is sometimes stupid money though so FOMO can happen  

Wouldn't the "FOMO event" be already priced in? The price-setting entities, actually everyone in Bitcoin, already knew about it four years ago, and have, by now, acted on it.


What would be the FUD? Unknown FUD? What kind of "FUD" would cause a panic?

Of course it doesn't make sense for bitcoin to be stable this early on. The topic is geared towards the short-term(which I put quite heavy emphasis on), whereas bitcoin moving only very little in price is very possible in the span of like 2 weeks and has happened a lot of times already.

Voted for FOMO event. Because we are experiencing FOMO effect on bitcoin price from last week. Most of holders believe bitcoin price will bump for halving occasion. And some people are trying to take advantage of it they are busy to buy bitcoin. That's how current FOMO increasing. Comparatively this year halving is going to different from other years. Because the bitcoin community become more bigger than before. And we will see another new halving after 4 years which would be more surprising for us.

Most probably price would drop after halving FOMO because there will be another FUD after halving. As you mention on the topic regarding panic sell, it would happen immediately after halving, not before the halving IMO. So if you're wondering accumulate then likely you will able to do after halving.

Here are my speculations,

1. Unlikely to happen. People have already burnt their hands once in 2017 due to FOMO. I don't think it will come back again now at least at this price level. However, if we see the price sky-rocketing past 15k, it may happen. But since a lot of people have already experienced this earlier, they will be super cautious this time. But the price increase must happen to keep miners at work.

2. If the price drops post halving, we won't see panic selling at scale. FUD articles were always a problem and it will remains as it is. But the chance of panic selling is grim. Rather, a lot of miner will be forced out of business due to the drop in price. It will be cheaper for them to buy from the market instead of mining bitcoin. It will create issues with the network. Transactions will take longer to confirm as well as it will be expensive just the way we have seen back in 2017. The effect will be disastrous for the entire bitcoin community.

3. Nah! It doesn't make sense at all! Bitcoin is a speculator's heaven. If it stabilizes, speculators/traders will have to find another asset to continue with their day trade. And if it happens, the demand is bound to fall because we haven't yet seen a significant mass adoption of bitcoin in real-world. The stabilizing price will definitely pave its way but that won't happen overnight. Definitely not an ideal scenario.

My thought: As per the basic mathematics, the price of bitcoin must increase. The miners will need that money to stay afloat because mining is a very price sensitive market. If miners are happy, we won't see network congestion or increased fees. But if the miners are moving out of business, the effect will not be great for all of us. We definitely don't want to pay $50 fees in $200 transaction and wait for 2 hours to get it confirmed. Let everyone be happy!  

Boring Scenario.

The halving is already priced in, and the "mining-death-spiral after the halving" narrative is also priced in. Although, that doesn't suggest that it won't surge up, or crash down, for other/unknown reasons.

I think it's quite evident to me which scenario I'd like to see the most. But the little devil sitting on my shoulder somehow tells me it would be pretty interesting to see a completely opposite movement of the price compared to the past halvings. Chances are that The Boring Scenario (reminds me of Musk's flamethrowers) has the highest chance to happen out of all 3 though, but any of the two other scenarios would be very interesting indeed.

I'll probably take some food and sit in front of my TV looking at the charts, but I am aware this could actually be a waste of time. It's not like the chart's going to go absolutely wild once halving is finally in.

Bitcoin's price concerning the halving has really been a very hot topic for the past few weeks, and it's pretty evident due to the number of questions we've been getting here on Bitcointalk concerning bitcoin's price.

So, as if we haven't been getting enough halving topics, here I am, creating another one. I blame the pandemic for me having so much time, I guess. And also hopefully so that we get a lot less redundant "will bitcoin rise after halving?" topics.

So, will bitcoin rise in price? or will it be coming crashing down temporarily? Out of the 3 potential short-term scenarios, what do you think is likely to occur?

Scenario 1: The FOMO event

While most of us here have known for a few months already that the 3rd halving is coming, let's not forget that there are people that aren't paying attention to the industry on the daily. Assuming that news sites(both bitcoin/crypto-related and non bitcoin-crypto related) manage to get their halving articles to get to trending, and when I say trending I mean even the non bitcoin people gets to read them, a huge fomo event might happen.

Along with that, let's not forget that the federal reserve printing a crap ton of money might just add enough fuel to the fomo fire for the price to grow significantly.

Also, the fomo might not only come from the non-bitcoin people. A rise in price after the halving might just give the crypto people enough proof that PlanB's Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow(S2F)[1] model might be actually accurate, hence them also potentially fomo-ing in. You can look at the S2F chart here[2].

Scenario 2: Huge Panic Selling

Since there are a good amount of people betting that the upcoming block halving will boost up bitcoin's price in the short-term, imagine if bitcoin actually drops in price or stays stable days or weeks after the halving. People would potentially be panic selling because the price pump they were expecting didn't happen. Let's not forget, people in this space are very short-term focused.

To add to that, there could potentially be a good number of FUD articles like "bitcoin hashrate dropped by xx%" if bitcoin's price didn't rise, hence some miners might need to turn off their machines.

Scenario 3: The Boring Scenario

While I personally doubt that this will be the scenario that will actually happen as I'm betting on a significant price movement, it's still a possibility. Whereas the number of bitcoin being bought and sold just simply balances out, giving bitcoin only a very small price movement(upside/downside) that it really wouldn't matter that much.

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Quick Final Thoughts

It's evident in the past that the past halving events had positive effects on bitcoin's price in the mid-long term. So whatever happens in the short-term, really doesn't matter that much. Though I'd personally probably prefer a drop so we could accumulate more. Thoughts?

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[1] https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/bitcoin-stock-to-flow-cross-asset-model-50d260feed12
[2] https://digitalik.net/btc/